WTA FINALS NEWS & NOTES
*2025 saw Wimbledon champs Kudermetova-Mertens emerge as the winners of the WTA Finals. They knocked off Babos-Stefani in the championship match 7-6, 6-1 as 1.51 (-196) favorites. That marked the third time in the last five years that the favorite won the title match. The straight sets finish the third straight in the Finals finale. Six of the last seven runs of the Finals have ended with a straight sets winner. An interesting note on last year’s winners as it marked the 2nd straight year that the WTA Finals champions had been involved in the Wimbledon final the same season. 2024 WTA Finals champs’ Dabrowski-Routliffe were Wimbledon runners-up.
*Last year saw the overall #1 team heading into the finals, Errani-Paolini, fail to make it out of the group stage. That was the third consecutive season that the top seeded pair did not advance out of the group stage. Krejcikova-Siniakova were the last #1 seeds to make the WTA Finals championship match in 2022. The Czechs were the last top seeds to take home the Finals’ titles in 2021. Dabrowski-Stefani are the #1 pairing at Indian Wells.
*Last year’s WTA Finals produced four underdog wins out of the 15 matches played. Two came in the group stages and then both semifinals went the way of the dog with scores at 2.37 (+137) and 2.63 (+163). That made it two of the last three years at the Finals that the semifinals produced a clean sweep for the underdogs. It’s interesting to note that the last two years (2022/2024) that did not have any dogs win in the semifinals, had an underdog winner in the final.
*Six of last year’s matches needed a super tie break to settle. Five of those came in the group stages. That was down from eight STBs in 2024. The group stages again were the highlight for those with all eight happening in the group stages. Traveling back to 2023, there were six super tie break finishes with two coming in the semifinals. Since the format expanded to round robin group stages in 2019, at least five of the group stage matches have needed the extra frame to settle in five of six runs of the WTA Finals. That’s five of 12 matches minimum, so that’s the place to focus on finding super tie breaks.
*Most of this year’s participants have been to the WTA Finals before, albeit with different partners in most cases. Two players, Guo Hanyu and Cristina Bucsa, are making their Finals’ debuts. Three pairs return intact from last year’s finals with Siniakova-Townsend, Errani-Paolini and Hsieh-Ostapenko here again. Mertens obviously was part of the winning combination last year with Kudermetova. She’ll be seeking her third WTA Finals’ championship with the two previous title runs coming with Kudermetova. The last player(s) to win back-to-back titles were Babos-Mladenovic in 2018-2019. Mladenovic is also seeking her third WTA Finals’ championship. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Siniakova-Townsend, making a third straight appearance at the Finals,have never won the titles. Hsieh Su-wei is the experience here with four trips to the WTA Finals’ championship match. She’s only won once back in 2013 with Peng Shuai. Her last final at this event came in 2021.
DRAW PREVIEW
GROUP 1
Dabrowski-Stefani
Guo-Mladenovic
Hsieh-Ostapenko
Mertens-Zhang
GROUP 1 FORECAST
This group starts on Monday. Dabrowski-Stefani start with Mertens-Zhang. That will be the first meeting between those two pairs. This is also going to be Mertens-Zhang’s first match together since a second round loss at Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Dabrowski-Stefani have been the best in the business over the last four months of the season. Since the grass swing started, they made six finals in the eight tournaments played, winning three straight in Sao Paulo, Beijing and Wuhan that elevated them into the number one ranking spot with Siniakova-Townsend not pairing due to Townsend’s recovery from an appendectomy. Both Mertens and Zhang found some success outside their regular partnership with Mertens’ biggest achievement being a US Open semifinal with Mira Andreeva. Zhang won the titles in Toronto with Siniakova and made the final alongside the Czech in Beijing. The big question is going to be how they respond after time apart? Since winning the Australian Open, they were a .500 pair (8-8) through the other eight tournaments they played together.
The other opener pits Hsieh-Ostapenko against Guo-Mladenovic. Hsieh and Penko won the lone battle of 2026, a 6-3, 6-4 victory in Cincinnati. Playing on hard courts should be an advantage for that pairing who have played all their matches on outdoor hard courts in 2026 (22-6). This will be their first pairing at Indian Wells though as Hsieh-Ostapenko did not play that regular tour stop either of the last two runs in the desert. Guo-Mladenovic had a solid 12-7 record on this surface this season. That included a quarterfinal run at Indian Wells in March. This is an interesting spot for the Wimbledon champs to start as they own wins over both Dabrowski-Stefani and Mertens-Zhang in their only meetings this year, but both came on non-hard courts. A win to start though and they could be a surprise contender for a semifinal berth.
For me, there’s zero doubt that Dabrowski-Stefani will emerge as one of the two semifinalists out of this group. I think they’ll be out to prove a point in what has been a highly successful season, but one that is missing a signature win at a big event like the WTA Finals. They should have a chip on their shoulders to face Guo-Mladenovic again for the first time since the disappointing loss to them in the Wimbledon final. They own a win over Hsieh-Ostapenko in Australia before we really knew who this pairing would be in 2026. The big one might just be getting out of the gates with a win over Mertens-Zhang to start so they’re not facing a deficit early. As for the other pair I like to get out of this group? Hsieh-Ostapenko would make sense with their prowess on hard courts, but Indian Wells is a bit of a different hard court. It plays grittier and slower. Does that mean anything to them? We shall see. I think it could well come down to the H2H banger between Hsieh-Ostapenko and Guo-Mladenovic to give one of those pairs the edge as the second team to qualify.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Dabrowski-Stefani, Guo-Mladenovic
GROUP 2
Siniakova-Townsend
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Perez-Schuurs
Errani-Paolini
GROUP 2 FORECAST
The openers on Sunday see Siniakova-Townsend versus Errani-Paolini and Perez-Schuurs battling Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez. The big story is the return of Taylor Townsend for the first time in nearly two months. There will be obvious fitness questions she’ll need to answer, but if she’s close to 100 percent and ready, it’s hard to go against the 2026 Indian Wells champs (Siniakova-Townsend). That title run include them absolutely destroying the Italians 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinals. They also beat Errani-Paolini 7-6, 6-1 in MIami in the following tournament. That’s a superb set-up you’d think, but the Italians are probably playing their best tennis coming off the Tokyo titles. They crushed Dabrowski-Stefani 6-2, 6-2 in the final, so their confidence will be higher than it was the last time these two faced off.
The other opener sees former partners and WTA Finals participants Ellen Perez and Nicole Melichar-Martinez on different sides of the net again. Perez-Schuurs own the win in a super tie break over Bucsa-MM back in Beijing, so it’s fairly recent history. Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez are 9-2 after the US Open, while Perez-Schuurs have struggled a bit at 4-4. This is a big match for both with the other pairs they’ll have to go through in this group. The loser will be battling uphill to try and get wins. The winner could be just a win away from locking up a spot in the semifinals. Perhaps guessing another super tie break is on tap is the best bet here with Perez-Schuurs playing four STBs in their last five matches and five of their last seven overall. I’ll go with the slight revenge for Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez.
I think Bucsa-MM are the X-factor in this group. They’ve split matches with both Siniakova-Townsend and Errani-Paolini, so there’s some confidence moving forward in this group. Perez-Schuurs have lost twice to Siniakova-Townsend in straights and have yet to face the Italians. Errani-Paolini may have a rough go of it with this group if they don’t pull out an upset to start. They lost recently to Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez in Ningbo, so that’s tough sledding. The most intriguing match of the group depending on the order it’s played could be a first time meeting between Perez-Schuurs and Errani-Paolini. That could serve as an elimination match of sorts.
Siniakova-Townsend have made it out of group play each of the last two seasons at the WTA Finals. This time is a little different with Townsend’s comeback after appendicitis surgery, but if she’s playing, I don’t think her health is a concern. It’ll mostly just be about getting match tough and match fit again. I’m not going against one of the best pairs in this field. As for the second qualifier out of this group, I’m going Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez. They’re battle-tested against all the pairs in their group.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Siniakova-Townsend, Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Dabrowski-Stefani and Siniakova-Townsend have clearly been the two best pairs in the WTA this season. That doesn’t translate to automatic success at this event as I pointed out early on that the #1 ranked pair the last couple of years has failed to even make it out of the group stages. Dabrowski-Stefani’s flat finish in Tokyo might worry some that they’ll fall into that trap, but I think maybe they needed something to ignite them heading to Indian Wells. That loss ended a 15 match win streak. Indian Wells is a re-set for them, but also a place where they “only” made the quarterfinals. In ten hard court tournaments, that was the only one where they fell short of a semifinal. That could be more motivation or it could be a red flag, you decide. Don’t forget Stefani was in the final of this event last year with Babos, so she knows what needs to be done. Given that this event traditionally has produced a surprise finalist … or two, I’ll look outside the box for one of the finalists.
I do think Siniakova-Townsend or Dabrowski-Stefani will be involved in the title match. Remember with how the semifinals are set with pairs facing pairs from the other group, it is possible that group members could go at it again in the final. That has not happened since 2021 when Krejcikova-Siniakova beat Hsieh-Mertens in group play and the final. Are we “due” for one group to produce both finalists this time around? One thing I think the WTA NEEDS to see in Indian Wells is a final clash between Siniakova-Townsend against Dabrowski-Stefani, the top two pairs in 2026. Whether it’s in the semifnals or the final, it’s really necessary. The last time they met was the French Open debacle for Dabrowski-Stefani that saw them lose 6-0, 6-1 in the semifinals. Earlier in Miami, it was a super tie break win for Siniakova-Townsend (10-3). I think Dabrowski-Stefani would relish one last shot, especially given they’ve been playing elite tennis for the past six weeks or so.
It should be a hell of an event even if we miss out on the top two pairs squaring off. It’ll be a nice setting in Indian Wells, where the fans LOVE their doubles!
Guo-Mladenovic
Dabrowski-Stefani
It’s been another slog of a season that is coming to a thankful end to let everyone recharge for 2027. I truly appreciate everyone who has read my ramblings over the year and those who have made a donation at different times in 2026. I’m due to re-up my domain registration for tennispig.com and the site used to manage it here at the end of the month. If you’re so inclined to make any donation, small, medium or large, that’s what it goes to cover. Thanks for stopping in and keep following @tennispig next year!
