PARIS NEWS & NOTES
*Heliovaara-Patten won the 2025 titles as the three seeds in Paris. They downed two seeds Cash-Glasspool 6-3, 6-4 as slight 2.04 (+104) underdogs. That marked the second underdog win in the last three years of this event. The straight sets finish was the first in the final since 2022. A seeded pair has now won the titles at the Paris Masters in four consecutive seasons.
*With the slight underdog win for the champs last year, underdogs tallied seven wins total in 2025. The largest came in round one at 3.49 (+249) courtesy of (8)Harrison-King losing. Six of the seven dog scores came in the first two rounds. The 2025 total was consistent with the 2024 total that saw eight underdog wins. Just like 2025, the majority of those u-dog victories came in rounds one and two (7). The largest again came in round one (3.19/+209) with a seed faltering, (2)Arevalo-Pavic. 2023 also had seven underdog wins, so this site has been very steady with producing u-dog wins at around a 25% rate these last three years.
*Super tie breaks had a strong showing last year with ten of the 27 matches needing the extra frame. Eight of those came in rounds one and two combined. Six of the ten involved a seeded pair playing. There were nine super tie break finishes in 2024 with seven of those coming in the first two rounds. 2023 had just six super tie break matches.
*Last year’s all-seeded final was the third in the last four years, so unseeded pairs have not been able to crash the finals party consistently of late. 2024 was the last time there was an unseeded finalist and 2021 (Puetz-Venus) was the last year that saw an unseeded pair run the gauntlet to the titles. Despite that, unseeded pairs have been able to make it to the semifinals regularly. Last year, two unseeded pairs made the final four. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the semis in each of the last eight runs in Paris with multiple unseeded pairs in the last four three times in the last five years. I’ll focus on the ones to watch there in just a minute.
*The story for the final stop on this year’s ATP World Tour is the fight for the final three spots in the doubles race
Arribage-Olivetti came up with a massive win in Basel last week to give themselves an excellent shot to secure a spot, perhaps without even needing a win in Paris. Both Arribage-Olivetti and Krawietz-Puetz both are in good shape heading to Paris, but an early loss coupled with a deep run by one of the trailers could still flip things around. The real battle seems to shape up for the #8 spot currently occupied by Andreozzi-Guinard. With only 135 points separating them from Cash-Glasspool in 10th, that spot certainly looks like the one most likely to change hands, IF one does.
As mentioned earlier, unseeded pairs have been regular visitors to the semifinals at the Paris Masters. So let’s see which pairs could get themselves into position for a surprise final.
Krajicek-Mektic/Halys-Herbert
Their win rate may have slowed the last few tournaments, but they have still been a pain in the ass most weeks for everyone. See last week when they lost in a super tie break to Heliovaara-Patten in Vienna. They’d have to go through Granollers-Zeballos early, a pair that has beat them three times this season, but they’ve taken sets off them in their last two meetings. PLUS, Granollers-Zeballos have lost their opener four times in five trips to Paris. So you’re saying there’s a chance? Oh … and do NOT forget Halys-Herbert who made the semifinals here last year. If they get by Krajicek-Mektic, they would be equally tough.
Arribage-Olivetti
How often do you get a team rated at #6 in the race still unseeded late in the year like this? They can eliminate Cash-Glasspool from the race in round one and secure their spot for Turin in one fell swoop. These guys are 15-1 indoors this year with titles in three of those four indoor tournaments. The lone loss though …. Cash-Glasspool. Strap in for round one because if they survive, who’s betting against them to continue to roll indoors?
Polmans-Zielinksi
This is my dartboard shot for the week. They’ve been decent together at 4-4 since forming last in the season. A win over Cash-Glasspool in Shanghai ranks as their best win thus far. They’re 1-2 indoors the last two weeks, but they’re playing a lot of tight sets. Those could continue to fall against them or the margins could reverse and find in their favor at some point. They’re in an interesting quarter with two teams already qualified for the Tour Finals in Harrison-Skupski and Bolelli-Vavassori. Harrison-Skupski have looked a little more beatable since their U.S. Open triumph and the Italians haven’t been past the round of 16 in Paris in the past. They may do nothing here, but I think they’re an intriguing pair to watch.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
There have been multiple early crash outs by seeds in Paris in recent times, including three seeds who lost in 2025. There is a caveat to that as the #1 seed technically ended up being taken by an alternate pair. Still, there have been at least two seeds going one and done in Paris each of the last five seasons. Let’s take a look at the seeded pairs who could be in trouble in their openers.
(1)Heliovaara-Patten
Last year’s champions could be in store for a battle off an opening round bye if Nys/Roger-Vasselin win their round one match. Nys-ERV have won two straight from the top seeds in 2026. Heliovaara-Patten did steamroll them in straights her last year, so they’ve got that going for them. Still, I expect a battle if this is the match-up we see in round two.
(4)Arevalo-Pavic
They’ve lost both matches post-US Open and post-split announcement. They’ve been very close, but losses are losses and that’s why I am looking at them as a pair that could go one and done again. It’ll be Nouza-Venus or an in-form Cabral-Tracy. I wouldn’t sleep on either of those pairs, especially given that Arevalo-Pavic’s last four regulation sets have featured three tie breaks and a 7-5 linescore. In matches that close, anyone can win.
(3)Granollers-Zeballos
I mentioned earlier that Krajicek-Mektic have taken sets off of Granollers-Zeballos in their last two losses to that pair. Granollers-Zeballos haven’t had great luck in Paris with opening losses in four of five trips to the City of Light. Keep an eye on who the three seeds face for their starter. Halys-Herbert could be a factor if they get past Krajicek-Mektic. The French pair have had some of their best results in France.
(7)Cash-Glasspool
Is this a rough draw for the Brits? They’re 2-0 against Arribage-Olivetti, their round one opponents, including one indoors that is the lone loss indoors in 2026 for Arribage-Olivetti. Both of those went to super tie breaks though, so I think you can say upset watch is still very much called for in this one. It’s a huge match as a win should lock up a spot at the Tour Finals for Arribage-Olivetti and would end Cash-Glasspool’s drive to sneak into one of the last open spots for Turin.
(8)Luz-Matos
There’s a lot of pressure on the Brazilians who were on the right side of the cut line for the Tour Finals up until the last week. They’ve stumbled with losses in five of their last six that includes four opening losses. That is why they’re on this list even going against a pair of singles starts in Berrettini-Cobolli who have never paired together. The question will be the health of Cobolli who suffered a muscle strain last week that forced him out of singles play in Vienna. It’s difficult for me to think that he’s going to risk playing doubles with singles the focus as he tries to lock down a Tour Finals spot here, but any pair that gets the Brazilians in their current funk could have an upset shot. We’ll see if it’s the Italians or a replacement.
DRAW PREVIEW
Click HERE for the doubles draw
TOP HALF
The first quarter features the defending champs (1)Heliovaara-Patten and (6)Krawietz-Puetz. The top seeds as mentioned could have a difficult opener if Nys/Roger-Vasselin are able to advance to round two. They haven’t shown much lately that would suggest that’s something that would happen, but that was also kind of the case when they beat Heliovaara-Patten in Cincinnati. Maybe Doumbia-Pel may this a moot point if they beat Nys-ERV, but I think this is going to be an interesting spot to watch. In the bottom, the German seeds have been consistent as they play out their last tournamens together. They made the quarterfinals in Shanghai and the semifinals in Basel. The set up here is workable for them to fight for a semifinal with Erler-Medevedev to start and then either Buse-Darderi or Bonzi-Rinderknech. Keep an eye on home-standing Frenchies Bonzi-Rinderknech who made the quarterfinals here back in 2021 and also made the quarters at this year’s Australian Open. They could play spoiler in this quarter.
The second quarter sees (3)Granollers-Zeballos leading the charge. This is their first action since the U.S. Open. Usually they’ve had one tune-up before the stop in Paris, but that obviously hasn’t helped them with their poor record here. Maybe NOT playing anything in between New York and Paris yields a better result? If there’s a place where Halys-Herbert might be a factor, it’s on home soil. They made the semifinals in Paris last Fall and also won Metz. Their best result this year? The French Open. Keep an eye on them round one against Krajicek-Mektic. Both of those pairs I feel will have a chance against the three seeds. The bottom half looks just as deadly with the battle between (7)Cash-Glasspool and Arribage-Olivetti plus Andreozzi-Guinard squaring off against Pavlasek-Rikl. This whole quarter should set the BANGER ALERT. You won’t ever convince me the draws are random with spots 6, 8 and 10 in the doubles race all in this quarter. This will effectively become an eliminator quarter where six plays ten to start and then the winner could see eight in round two!
TOP HALF FORECAST
The second quarter could be a racous good-time with all that’s at stake. Form says Arribage-Olivetti indoors, but this is a gauntlet they’re up against and I do not think they’re getting through it. They may do just enough to clinch their Tour Finals spot and hell, they may not even have to win a match to do that! Keep an eye on Cash-Glasspool. They suffered a bad loss in Vienna last week that could have potentially swung them into the top eight. They’ve played this post-US Open stretch like a pair that wants one of those spots in Turin with a 10-2 record and two titles. In spite of the early exit in Vienna, Heliovaara-Patten generally have been tough to beat indoors with a career mark of 21-6 on the surface. They’ve never been stopped short of the quarterfinals here, so sleeping on them could be hazardous. They also own a 2-1 mark against the nearest seeds to them (Krawietz-Puetz). One thing working against them is the poor history of top seeds in Paris. They have not made a semifinal since 2018. 2016 was the last time the #1 seeds made the final at the Paris Masters and it was 2014 when the Bryans won the titles, the last top seeded pair here to do it.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (6)Krawietz-Puetz vs (7)Cash-Glasspool
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter is intriguing with (4)Arevalo-Pavic and (8)Luz-Matos as the seeds. I already talked about the big time struggles of the Brazilians and Arevalo-Pavic have been on the wrong side of the small margins lately. That may open up this quarter to some of the unseeded pairs like Cabral-Tracy and Vienna champs Miedler-Oberleitner. That pair has won seven of their last eight which includes wins over Heliovaara-Patten and Andreozzi-Guinard. Given the struggles of Luz-Matos who are in that same half of the quarter, Miedler-Oberleitner could be considered favorites to be in the quarterfinals. The Arevalo-Pavic half I think you have to watch Cabral-Tracy, who have found themselves a winning rhythm after a slow start to their partnership. They won Hangzhou and made the Shanghai final, but there’s still questions about grabbing those signature wins. They did beat Arribage-Olivetti in Shanghai as well as Luz-Matos, but Arevalo-Pavic I’ve still got a level better than that. Let’s see if they can get a shot for that type of win this week.
The final quarter sees (2)Harrison-Skupski searching for the form that led them to their second Grand Slam title of the season in New York. They’re just 1-2 since then, so perhaps the season’s wear and tear is taking hold again. I think we’ll find out a lot with their opener with either Polmans-Zielinski or Cerundolo-Etcheverry waiting. Don’t sleep on either pair with Cerundolo-Etcheverry reasserting their danger duo status in Vienna by upsetting Arevalo-Pavic. They also beat Heliovaara-Patten in Montreal, so no matter which team survives round one, it’s going to be a harsh opener for the two seeds. The top half has Italians Bolelli-Vavassori as the fifth seeds. They’re seeking a rare win in Paris in their last regular-season tournament togther. The Italians have only won one out of three matches in their history at the Paris Masters. They get Schnaitter-Wallner first. The Germans had the nice run in Shanghai to make the semifinals, but have lost their openers in three of the last four tournaments overall. I like Bolelli-Vavassori. The other match opposite them is a coin flip with Cash-Nakashima taking on Vacherot-Van Assche. You never know with singles pairs with little to no history together, but I’d take the Italians in that bottom half.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
I’m smelling an unseeded semifinalist in this bottom half. I am looking to quarter #3 where Miedler-Oberleitner and Cabral-Tracy stand out for me. To be honest, it might not be surprising to see both semifinal spots go to unseeded pairs. I’m not strong on the seeds in this half as they all have some questions to answer late in the year. Luz-Matos desperately need wins to stay afloat in the race, but nothing right now is pointing to them being able to plug the holes in what looks like a sinking ship. The other seeds are all qualified for Turin, so this week is all about getting reps and some momentum back for that event. I think Bolelli-Vavassori have the best path, but it’s really anyone’s game here in the dwindling moments of the 2026 season.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Miedler-Oberleitner vs (5)Bolelli-Vavassori
One way or the other, the last three spots in Turin are getting sorted out in Paris. Arribage-Olivetti and Krawietz-Puetz are close. One win might do it for both of them, but an early loss gives life to Luz-Matos and Cash-Glasspool, the chasers. Outside of that, this is still a Masters 1000 and that’s a title with prestige. So it’s not like the seeds are going to show up disinterested. This has an interesting tournament recently, especially given the struggles of the top seeded pair historically here. Can Heliovaara-Patten break that jinx?
Cash-Glasspool
Miedler-Oberleitner
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