U.S. OPEN NEWS & NOTES
*Granollers-Zeballos are back with the quest to repeat as U.S. Open champs after winning in 2025 as the five seeds. They downed (6)Salisbury-Skupski 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-5 in the final as slight 1.73 (-136) favorites. There hasn’t been an underdog winner in the championship match since 2006 when Damm-Paes won at 2.77 (+177). Last year’s three set finish was the third time in the last five years that the final went the distance. The men’s final has also featured all-seeded matchups each year since 2021.
*The three set finish in last year’s final brought the total number of three set matches in 2025 to 29 out of the 63 completed matches or 46 percent. A dozen of those came in round one with seven more in round two. Both semifinals went the distance too. And seventeen of the 29 involved a seeded pair. It was a big leap from 21 three setters in 2024. Fifteen of those involved a seeded pair. 2023 saw 27 three set matches. The semifinals are a good place to remember to hunt these down with at least one three set finish in each of the last five years.
*Despite the success of seeds, unseeded pairs have grabbed at least one spot in the semifinals in four of the last six runs of the U.S. Open. Last year, it was Americans Cash-Tracy pulling off the surprise run. They were one of three unseeded pairs in the quarterfinals in 2025. That made it eleven of the last twelve trips to New York where at least two quarterfinal spots were gobbled up by unseeded pairs. I’ll touch more on the ones to watch from the unseeded field later in the Unseeded Menaces section.
*Underdogs won 16 matches last year and there were some massive scores with four at 5.00 (+400) or better and three more between 4.00 (+300) and 4.99 (+399). Five of those came in round one. Only two underdog wins in 2025 came after round two. The total last year was up slightly from 13 dog wins in 2024. There was another big 5.14 (+414) hit in round one, but the rest of the u-dog wins were more modest with only two more over 3.00 (+200) for the rest of the tournament. One of those was another big one though at 4.00 plus (+300). They were also a big more evenly spread in 2024 with five coming after round two. 2023 also had 16 underdog wins. If you’re looking for a monster hit, look to round one as there’s been at least one at 4.00 (+300) each of the last seven years.
*Granollers-Zeballos’ triumph in New York last year helped them become the 1st men’s doubles pair to win multiple Grand Slams in the same year since Cabal-Farah won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open back-to-back. This year, Granollers-Zeballos along with Harrison-Skupski and Heliovaara-Patten are the last ones standing to try to finish off that feat with victory in New York. As for other story lines for the men this week, it’ll mostly be about the last two spots in the doubles race to Turin. Luz-Matos stunned the tour this Summer with back-to-back wins in Montreal and Cincinnati to push themselves from out to in as they now occupy the #6 spot in the rankings. They’ve got a 900 point lead on the #9 pair in Doumbia-Reboul. Andreozzi-Guinard and Arribage-Olivetti fill out the 7th and 8th spots. They’re still within striking distance with only 600 points separating 11th place Cash-Glasspool from the #7 spot. One big run and early losses by others can change things quickly. Oh there’s also this pair, Ram-Salisbury, that have won the U.S. Open three times. They don’t seem particularly well-poised to make a run at #4, but them being back here together for the first time since 2024 is a nice piece of nostalgia to latch on to.
I mentioned it early on that unseeded pairs have consistently weaved their way into the quarterfinals and semifinals here in New York. We haven’t however seen a finalist at the U.S. Open from the unseeded field since the pandemic year of 2020. And there’s only been two in the last ten years or so. The last unseeded champions? 2005 when the Bryans won their 1st U.S. Open title.
Seggerman-Trhac
Listen, I don’t believe they’re going to make a final, but this American pair can certainly push towards a quarterfinal if they find their best. Their last action togther saw them win the Los Cabos titles in early August, beating Luz-Matos along the way. The ATP chances have been sporadic, but they have almost always been a very tough out. They play Bhambri-Venus to start, a pair that has dropped five of their last six. They’re drawn into the half of Bolelli-Vavassori’s quarter with the Italians and (15)Krajicek-Mektic.
Schnaitter-Wallner
The Germans are another pair that maybe haven’t had a deep run at a big tournament in while, but they are still one of the more dangerous pairs you’ll find in the unseeded field. Ask Harrison-Skupski who needed three sets to rid themselves of the Germans in Australia or or Hijikata-Polmans who need three tie breaks to take them out at Wimbledon. They made the round of 16 last year, losing to Doumbia-Reboul in three. If they win and Doumbia-Reboule win, the rematch comes in round two this year. And should they prevail, a rematch with Harrison-Skupski could be in store for a shot at a quarterfinal. They’re definitely ones to keep an eye on.
Rojer-Winegar/Goransson-Galloway
The survivor of this round one banger could be a menace, perhaps against Krawietz-Puetz in round two. Rojer-Winegar already flashed big tournament prowess with a third round showing at Wimbledon beating Bhambri-Benus and Nys/Roger-Vasselin. They didn’t do much in hard court prep action. Maybe that means Goransson-Galloway are the better shot, but they have also only played twice together. They split two matches in Winston-Salem, losing a super tie break to Krajicek-Mektic. With an inconsistent Cash-Glasspool also in the vicinity, there’s a shot the winner of this one puts themselves into position for a quarterfinal berth.
Pavlasek-Rikl
In that same area of the draw, my Czech man crushes will be out to again prove they’re tough to beat at Grand Slams. They made the round of 16 at both the French Open and Wimbledon. Both times falling in a third set. They split four matches on hard courts this Summer, losing to Arevalo-Pavic and Bolelli-Vavassori. They might need help for a true sleeper run, but being in that section with Cash-Glasspool, the Czechs may at least be able to position themselves to fight for a quarterfinal berth in the round of 16.
Nouza-Oberleitner
They picked a wonderful time to get hot by winning Winston-Salem last week, including wins over Ram-Salisbury, Miedler-Polmans and Krajicek-Mektic. Don’t forget this pair also made the French Open quarterfinals and nearly knocked out Cash-Glasspool in round three at Wimbledon. They are stuck in the Granollers-Zeballos quarter that could limit them, but the defending champs did drop a couple on the Summer swing and haven’t looked fully locked in since winning their 2nd French Open. These two will be interesting to track in New York.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
2025 was an absolute blood bath for seeds early with two of the top three seeds falling in round one. After two years without many early shocks, last year reverted to some of the glory days of the early 2020s and late 2010s when top five seeds experienced stranger danger in round one quite often.
With all that to chew on, let’s look at the seeds who have tough round one battles on tap and could be headed for an early exit.
(4)Bolelli-Vavassori
If there’s a top four seed to worry about, the Italians seem to fit that mold. This has been a middling Slam for them at 3-3 for their careers in three trips. The round of 16 two years ago was their best result. Last year, they made round two, but got pushed to three sets in their opener. This time they get a tough pair of Frenchies in Halys-Herbert. They’re 18-7 over the last two seasons together including a sensational semifinal run at this year’s French Open. That said, they looked pretty woeful in Winston-Salem in losing their opener 6-4, 6-2 and looked similarly rough at a first round loss at Wimbledon this year. It might just be that clay is their best surface and this could be a mismatch in the end. Still, with the Italians showing some vulnerability in the Summer prep for the U.S. Open, this one should be interesting.
(5)Harrison-Skupski
This is not the same version of the pair that won the Australian Open. I’ve said it many times since, but they’ve been mostly a .500 team since winning in Melbourne. Their Summer has continued that slump with losses in three of four. Again those were tough matches and two of the losses were in super tie breaks, but confidence again is a funny thing. They get Reymond-Sanchez who come in on fire with three straight Challenger titles, two on hard courts. This is another pair that’s done about all that can be done at Challengers, but has struggled a bit when presented with ATP main draw chances (1-5). Still, it’s another chance and they did win their first Slam match together at this year’s French Open, so they know the moment.
(7)Andreozzi-Guinard
So the plus for the seeds is they have only lost five openers in 2026, but four of them have come on this surface. That includes a super tie break opening loss to Galloway-King last time out in Cincinnati. They were decent during this Summer swing at 3-3, but have still been prone to some letdowns on this surface more than others. They square off with Reynolds-Watt, a pair that’s been consistently good on this surface at the Challenger level in 2026 with a 17-8 record that also includes their first ATP final in Los Cabos. They haven’t gotten much play in ATP main draws consistently, but they feel a little like Cash-Tracy to me in that they’ve proven their mettle at Challenger and it’s time to step up and find out what you’ve got.
(11)Doumbia-Reboul
The Frenchman had a nice quarterfinal run here a year ago in just their 2nd U.S. Open. They had a decent build-up this Summer at 3-2, working around an injury, but ended with a loss to Ram-Salisbury in Winston-Salem. That was their first opening round loss since the French Open and just their fourth of the season. Still, this is a tricky spot against Stevenson-Willis. The Brits haven’t played much on hard courts together, but got some time in at Cancun with a split of two matches. Both were super tie breaks, making it ten of their 17 matches this year going the distance. I like the competitiveness they’ve shown across surfaces and across both Challengers and the ATP level when given the chance. I expect this one to be competitive
(13)Miedler-Polmans
As much as I like what this team has shown, hard courts have been a bit of a nemesis. They did get to the Winston-Salem semifinals, so perhaps that’s the beginning of a turn for the better. Still, they lost four of six on this surface this Summer after bludgeoning the tour on clay to start their partnership with back-to-back titles. I also don’t like the opponent they’re against with the Nakashima brothers being the foes. It will be the second time Brandon and brother Bryce have played together with the first being in Atlanta back in 2024. They were very competitive that day, losing a super tie break to Purcell-Thompson. For Bryce this is rare air to see an ATP main draw and even though Brandon is disappointingly out of the singles draw already, I’d expect he’s going to be amped for this match to give his brother a chance to score an ATP win.
(14)Frantzen-Haase
Did they peak too soon? This pair stunned its way to the Cincinnati final with wins over three pairs that are seeded at this year’s U.S. Open. Perhaps predictably, they ran out of gas or let up in Winston-Salem, losing their 2nd match. They draw vets Gonzalez-Molteni who haven’t paired since May. It’s been a rough year at 11-11 for the Argentinians, but they have always played surprisingly well in New York. Last year’s round of 16 loss to Cash-Tracy was the first time they fell short of making the quarterfinals here in three trips. There could be some rust to shake off, but they could be dangerous in round one.
(16)Cabral-Tracy
The Cash-Tracy split has not yielded the kind of results either of the Americans was hoping for with Cabral-Tracy 1-4 so far as a pair. Admittedly, the draws have been tough so the losses aren’t necessarily totally disheartening, but confidence is a funny thing. Opportunity awaits for their opponents, young Americans Milavsky-Shick who are 15-1 as a pair in 2026. Yes, a lot of that came in Futures play early, but they just made back-to-back Challenger finals winning in Winnipeg. This will be their ATP main draw debut. Perhaps the moment is far too big, but with Cabral-Tracy still trying to find the win column consistently, this could get interesting if the Americans get off to a fast start.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
First Quarter
Heliovaara-Patten lead the way as the top seeds as they seek to rectify last year’s first round flop on this trip. New York truly hasn’t been the best to them with that loss in 2025 to Frantzen-Haase and a crushing defeat to Koolhof Mektic in round three back in 2024. They get the Cerundolos to start and should be on alert after the Argentinians knocked out Nys/Roger-Vasselin in round one at this year’s Australian Open. That said, the Cerundolos haven’t played much doubles together with those two matches in Melbourne being their only ATP level doubles matches to-date. Safe to say another round one defeat and Heliovaara-Patten might boycott the U.S. Open in the future. (16)Cabral-Tracy are the other seeds in the top half of this quarter and I already put them on upset alert for round one against Milavsky-Shick. Even were they to survive, round two would be another test with either wildcards Lammons-Withrow or Demoliner-Ho on tap. The Lammons-Withrow reunion in 2026 has had plenty of ups and downs with them rebuilding their confidence mainly at Challengers. Still, this is a pair that made the semifinals here two years ago. This isn’t the harshest draw in the world, so if they somehow find another gear, don’t be surprised if they’re still alive into the round of 16.
The bottom half sees (7)Andreozzi-Guinard and (12)Nys/Roger-Vasselin as the seeds. Both may have tougher round one foes than round two. Andreozzi-Guinard start with Reynolds-Watt who I touched on earlier in the preview. They’ve done what they can at Challengers and should be relishing a test of this magnitude. Nyrs/ERV have Paul-Vocel first-up. That pair has gone 20-8 this season, but has yet to hit the hard courts. Still, they have the reps and chemistry, so the seeds need to be prepared for a fight. Nys/Roger-Vasselin seem to have turned a corner on a mediocre year as the Summer has progressed. They went 6-3 through three tournaments on this surface this Summer. That includes wins over Heliovaara-Patten and Granollers-Zeballos. When they’re right, they’re lethal still. For me, they’re the seed I think most likely to push through this section and into the quarters. They beat Andreozzi-Guinard in two straight after losing to them in Shanghai last Fall. They have gone the distance, but wins are wins.
This quarter carries some intrigue due to the struggles Heliovaara-Patten have experienced on the North American hard courts the last two years. That opens the door for some of these other duos to dare to dream about making that deep run. Nys/Roger-Vasselin are my favorites among the seeds. If we’re looking for unseeded runners, it’s tougher, but the dreamers may look to Lammons-Withrow. I’d still be pretty surprised if a seed didn’t push through this section, but the likelihood of it being the top seeds may be smaller than expected at other tournaments.
Second Quarter
You’ve got Italians Bolelli-Vavassori leading the top half of this quarter as the four seeds. It’s been a dropoff for them since making the French Open semifinals as they’ve gone just 5-4. They had a nice showing in Cincinatti by making the quarterfinals where they lost to Luz-Matos. The U.S. Open has generally been right up there with Wimbledon as their worst Grand Slam with a round of 16 result in 2024 serving as the meat in the 2nd round loss/1st round loss sandwich. Their opener comes against Halys-Herbert who haven’t played together a ton on outdoor hard courts. Maybe that helps the Italians stave off another round one defeat here. Round two may pit them against Gille-Verbeek. They play the singles pairing of Blockx-Prizmic. That being a first time pariing of guys who rarely play doubles, I’ll take Gille-Verbeek to snap their four math losing skid. Gille-Verbeek did most of their heavy lifting on clay this year with an 0-3 record on hard courts, so if the Italians can survive, it’s very possible they could match their career best finish in New York. The bottom portion of this half has a red hot Krajicek-Mektic leading the way as the 15 seeds. They’ve had a splendid Summer that started back with a Wimbledon quarterfinal. They made two finals on the hard court swing in Washington and Winston-Salem. They did stumble at the two Masters though going just 1-2. Their toughest match may come in round two against the Seggerman-Trhac/Bhambri-Venus winner. Either way though, they’re avoiding the top tier teams until at least a quarterfinal. This is a reasonably nice set-up for them
In the bottom half, Harrison-Skupski may only need to survive round one against the French pair Reymond-Sanchez to heat up in this quarter with (11)Doumbia-Reboul as the other seeds. Harrison-Skupski did not have a pleasant Summer, going 1-3 in prep for the U.S. Open. Their last two Slams also have to be considered failures with a second round exit at the French Open and third round exit at Wimbledon. Can they turn it around here? The draw says yes. A win in round one and it’s on to face either singles pairing Damm-McDonald or Hidalgo-Tabilo. Hildalgo-Tabilo have played together at a few Slams, including here in 2024, so give them an experience edge at least. With Damm’s huge serve, you can’t sleep on the American duo either. He’s 9-3 in doubles this year, but doesn’t have a tone of ATP-level doubles reps. On the other side, Doumbia-Reboul will hope to escape Stevenson-Willis in round one, but it might be Schnaitter-Wallner they really have to watch for in round two. The Germans get an inexperienced pair in round one, so they should be there and this is the team to watch as a dark horse in this part of the quarter.
With neither of the higher seeds here in the best of form and Bolelli-Vavassori having a not-so-great history here, this quarter looks like it should be wide open. Krajicek-Mektic seem the likeliest seed to take advantage and I really like that Schnaitter-Wallner pairing. Harrison-Skupski really can only blame themselves if they continue their mediocre form as this draw does afford them chances for a deep run. Maybe the Gods will smirk on them this week?
TOP HALF FORECAST
There is definitely a case to be made that this half could produce a double digit seeded semifinalist or TWO. You can also look to this half perhaps as the one better suited to producing that unseeded semifinalist to continue that streak. It’s so hard to overlook what has been the best team on the ATP Tour this year in Heliovaara-Patten, but history tells us for whatever reason, this has not been their best part of the calendar. I like Nys/Roger-Vasselin to take advantage. Even if Heliovaara-Patten get their act together, those two have had their number in 2026 with two wins in two tries and I already mentioned their wins over Andreozz-Guinard. It’s harder to see an unseeded team stealing that semifinal berth, but perhaps not so hard in the second quarter. I like Krajicek-Mektic as the best shot of the seeds. They have winning records against the higher seeds who would be likelier to be in their way. I still think Schnaitter-Wallner have that potential though to provide the true shock of this half.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (12)Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Schnaitter-Wallner
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
The third quarter is highlighted by (3)Arevalo-Pavic who have been in fine form this Summer. Their streak of three consecutive finals was broken up in Cincinnati with a super tie break loss to Arribage-Olivetti, but these two have won 14 of their last 17. They will be hoping to avoid an earlier than expected exit this year after falling in round two last year. They had made the semifinals at the U.S. Open their first year together in 2024. Round one may look tricky with Johnson-Zielinski who took them out in Australia this year, but both teams are in vastly different spots at this stage of the season. Johnson-Zielinski have lost their openers in five straight tournaments and carry a six match losing skid to New York overall. Johnson-Zielinski played arguably their best tournament of the year when they beat Arevalo-Pavic in the Australian Open quarterfinals, so I’d expect some revenge to be in store for them this time. Miedler-Polmans are the other seed in the Arevalo-Pavic half, but they may have trouble just escaping round one against the Nakashimas. I really do expect an inspired performance from the American brothers. If Miedler-Polmans do advance though, they are the kind of team that could give Arevalo-Pavic trouble.
The opposite side of this quarter has two unknowns in (6)Krawietz-Puetz and (9)Cash-Glasspool. The Germans only played one match together during the Summer hard court swing with Puetz taking some time away, so they will be hoping to get things going again this week. The Germans made the final here in 2024, but haven’t been past the round of 16 in their other two trips. I think round two is the first road block with Winegar-Rojer or Galloway-Goransson waiting. If the Germans get got early on, I think that’s the round. Gimme Galloway-Goransson to be in that position. As for Cash-Glasspool, inconsistency continues to follow them this year. They started the Summer with a bang by winning the titles in Washington, but lost both Masters openers against Cerundolo-Etcheverry and Ram-Salisbury. They were a first round casualty here in their debut in 2025. I think they avoid that against first timers Darderi-Kestelboim, but I’m looking at a round two showdown against Pavlasek-Rikl as a difficult spot. As long as the Czechs get there, they have a real shot after beating the Brits at the French Open to avenge a super tie break loss in Barcelona.
Arevalo-Pavic are the team to beat here based on their Summer of success. Still, Krawietz-Puetz have made a final here and could probably be expected to show better with more reps if they can get them. I feel like Miedler-Polmans are a bit of a wildcard here as they’ve lost some tight matches, but one win in that matter could breed confidence. Cash-Glasspool are the seeds I continue to have the least confidence in for good reason. There are some intriguing unseeded duos in this section that could challenge for at least a quarterfinal. I think the Krawietz-Puetz half might be more likely to birth one of those. Galloway-Goransson and Pavlasek-Rikl seem the most likely to spring the surprise to me.
Fourth Quarter
This last quarter houses the defending champs with Granollers-Zeballos looking to rediscover the form that won them a 3rd Grand Slam title this Summer in Paris. They shouldn’t be mad at their early draw. They get a first time pair to start and then would see either a singles pair in Ugo Carabelli-Etcheverry or Fery-Paris. Now that UC-Etcheverry pair has made the third round of two Slams, but those were mostly draw produced. (2)Granollers-Zeballos would easily be the toughest pair they’ve ever faced. Perhaps they put up a good fight though with the seeds trying to get in rhythm early, but it would be a shock to not see the defending champs in round three. The other seed in their part of the quarter is (14)Frantzen-Haase. Despite their superb Cincinnati run, I think it’s an uphill battle for them here with Gonzalez-Molteni first and then likely a really solid unseeded team in Nouza-Oberleitner. I would be surprised if they made it past round two. I really like Nouza-Oberleitner in this section and they are a team that I think could challenge Granollers-Zeballos with their ability to hold serve. If there’s a surprise in this half, they’re my pick.
The other half of this last quarter features the most in-form pair on tour in (8)Luz-Matos. They arrive on a ten match winning streak, but the question too will be whether they peaked at the right time or not? I mentioned it on Twitter when they completed the rare Canada-Cincinnati double that the last two pairs who did that had lost their U.S. Open first rounder. Perhaps they were spared that fate by the luck of the draw as they get a very green pair of American youngsters in Carpico-Filin who have almost exclusively played Futures in their careers. To say a loss by the Brazilians would be stunning in round one would be underselling it to the power of a billion. Survival means seeing either singles duo Duckworth-Kecmanovic or veterans Melo-Peers who are resprising their partnership for the first time since 2023. They had a moment back then winning the Halle titles, but it’s a big ask for them to turn up after three years apart and asking them to win multiple matches. I think they’ll be excited to win round one and see what happens after that, but Luz-Matos have to like this path. (10)Arribage-Olivetti are the seeds opposite of them and they’ll be looking for a few wins to space themselves from the chasers for the 8th and final Tour FInals spot. An intriguing round two would see them against three-time U.S. Open champs Ram-Salisbury.
It’s impossible to think they will flip some sort of magical switch and make a deep run seeing as they have not won back-to-back matches yet in their reunion this Summer. That said, they have shown some better tennis in Cincinnati and Winston-Salem in splitting matches there, so the reps are piling up. Gonzalez-Smith will be hard enough in round one, so if they can pass that test, then they’re playing with Kalshi money (screw those commercials) and we will see what happens. Arribage-Olivetti have yet to make it past round two at a Grand Slam, so there is ALWAYS a chance for something nostalgically magical. Even though Granollers-Zeballos have a decent path and last year’s title run, remember New York hasn’t always been kind to them. They hadn’t been past the quarterfinals until last year. I might be off here, but I am not feeling them right now. Could Luz-Matos continue their ridiculous run? Of the other seeds, they obviously make the most sense. I also look to Nouza-Oberleitner. They are hot and they’ve proven themselves now at Grand Slams.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
I am not feeling a repeat run for Granollers-Zeballos this year, but will be happy to be proven wrong if they find their best again and make another fantastic run. I think this half could breed some surprises too for the business end of the tournament as this just feels like it’s going to be somewhat of a wild ride. The two seeds who have the best form coming to New York are Arevalo-Pavic and Luz-Matos. As much of a fanboy as I am for the Brazilians, it’s uncharted territory if they keep winning and I just don’t know if that is sustainable on the biggest of stages, yet the draw seems to beckon it. My surprise teams in this half are Nouza-Oberleitner and Galloway-Goransson. Galloway is a former quarterfinalist back in 2023 with Olivetti and he’s had some harsh losses here the last few years. It’s another “gut” feeling that maybe he’s due for better luck and another run. I don’t think anyone would be mad if we got Arevalo-Pavic vs Luz-Matos in a repeat of the Montreal final to decide who goes to the U.S. Open final.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Arevalo-Pavic vs Nouza-Oberleitner
The U.S. Open hasn’t featured a 1 versus 2 matchup since 2022, which was also the last time the #1 seeds made the final in New York. I don’t envision that happening this year and as you might have guessed, I’d be surprised if either one made the final. I don’t know if this is their time, but Arevalo-Pavic despite the Cincinnati loss a bit early, seem like their Summer could be building to a crescendo. They are my top pick and then my double digit delight that will probably look foolish is Nys/Roger-Vasselin. I am expecting some upsets on the men’s side and to see some of these unseeded pairs make bigger names for themselves … or ya know, I could be entirely wrong. That happens all the time, right? Happy viewing in New York!
Arevalo-Pavic
Nys/Roger-Vasselin
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DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 