CINCINNATI NEWS & NOTES
*The 2025 version of the Cincinnati Open featured a pair of unseeded teams squaring off in the final. Mektic-Ram emerged victorious over Musetti-Sonego 4-6, 6-3, 10-5. Mektic-Ram were 1.53 (-188) favorites. Their win was the second in the last three years for an unseeded pair (Gonzalez-Molteni ‘23). Overall, an unseeded pair has been involved in the Cincinnati final in five of the last six runs of this tournament with three unseeded champions in that span.
*The super tie break finish occurred for the second time in the last three years. The STB in the finale was the 13th match in 2025 that went the distance. Seven of those came in round one. The total was up one from 12 in 2024 with nine of those coming in rounds one and two combined. Stretching back to 2023, there were 14 super tie break finishes with the majority again coming in the first two rounds (11). Focusing on rounds one and two to hunt these down seems like a wise idea in Cincinnati.
*With the success of unseeded pairs making the final here in recent times, that must mean underdogs have fared well, right? Kind of. There were eleven underdog wins last year with the two largest both coming in the semifinals at 3.03 (+203) and 3.46 (+246). Five of the dog scores last year came in the quarterfinals and semifinals. In 2024, there were only eight underdog wins. The big one again came in the semifinals at 4.06 (+306) when McDonald-Michelsen stunned top seeds Granollers-Zeballos. 2023 had a dozen dogs bark. One of those semifinals went the way of the dog and that’s a good round to be patient and wait for if you’re an underdog hunter. Five of the last nine semifinals since 2021 have been u-dog victories.
*So on top of the unseeded success, “singles pairs” in particular have been a nuisance in the Cincinnati draw of late. Last year, it was Musetti-Sonego crashing the final. 2024 saw McDonald-Michelsen do the same. And back in 2022, Rune-Tsitsipas made it to the semifinals before withdrawing. There are nine singles pairings in this year’s men’s draw, so I will focus on the ones who may have a shot to join these other duos in the record books in 2026 with a big run. That will come in the Unseeded Menaces section below.
*One of the things to watch this week is the position changing for a spot in the top eight in the rankings that earns a slot at the Tour FInals at the end of the season. Currently, just 660 points separates sixth from 11th. A big returnee this week is Tim Puetz who will pick back up the regular partnership with Krawietz. The Germans sit in 9th heading into the week, trailing Luz-Matos by just 40 points for the 8th spot. Doumbia-Reboul and Cash-Glasspool are both within 150 points of the 8th place Brazilians who won the titles last week in Montreal, so there is bound to be some shuffling in those spots. With 1000 points up for grabs, even pairs a little further out in 12th and 13th, Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Krajicek-Mektic, can put themselves into contention before the U.S. Open.
Unseeded pairs have been noisy in Cincinnati of late, especially with some of the “singles pairs” making finals in the last two seasons. Let’s take a look at that part of the unseeded field as well as the unseeded specialists who could do damage in 2026.
Rinderknech-Vacherot
These two didn’t live up to their billing last week in Montreal, losing their opener to Darderi-Tabilo, but they are still very dangerous. Drawing Bolelli-Vavassori in round one might be a good spot to kick start a run too with the Italians having lost two of their three matches played during this hard court swing. That included an opening loss in Montreal. If this pair can get past round one, then it’s game on. Rememeber, they made the Indian Wells final this Spring.
Bhambri-Venus
They flashed a more competitive attitude in Montreal with an upset of Harrison-Skupski and a narrow loss to another team in the top eight in Arribage-Olivetti. Both came in super tie breaks, so they are walking that fine line. Still, if they serve well, they can compete with most. The question usually is if the serves can hold up.
Arribage-Olivetti
Seeing a pair ranked 7th in the live race, but unseeded in Cincy, gives you pause to check out their chances. This duo finally put together a nice run at a big tournament with a semifinal run in Montreal last year. That had been one of the bugaboos for these two prior to last week. They had done a lot of their heavy lifting with a couple 500-level wins with smaller fields in Dallas and Halle, so it was nice to see them going deep at a Masters 1000. That said, you can argue a lot of that was due to a pleasant draw as they faced no seeds until the semis when they lost to Arevalo-Pavic. They could get a repeat shot at that pair in round two if both take opening wins. The quick conditions in Cincinnati could aid the big serving Olivetti a lot.
Arnaldi-Musetti
The Italians got their feet wet as a duo last week in Montreal with a win over Khachanov-Rublev before falling to Andreozzi-Guinard. They could get a return shot at Andreozzi-Guinard in round two this week if they grab a 1st round win. Musetti had the success last year with Sonego in getting to the final here, could he pull it off again with a different partner?
Krajicek-Mektic/Cash-Nakashima
I feel like the survivor here is going to be a pest for as long as they last. Krajicek-Mektic crashed out in Montreal early with a harsh draw against Andreozzi-Guinard in round one. That came on the heels of a finals run in Washington, DC. Cash-Nakashima take a wildcard entry in this week and pair for the first time. Cash is with his third partner in as many weeks after splitting with former partner James Tracy. Cash made the Brownsburg Challenger final this past week, so he arrives in good form. Nakashima is gaining more notoriety of late for his singles play after making the Montreal final, but he’s been a steady sort when choosing to play doubles. This will be his third straight season playing dubs in Cincy, grabbing his first win in 2025. The winner has to go through Granollers-Zeballos likely in round two, but they’ve been a bit vulnerable with losses in two of their last three.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Early upsets have been few and far between the last two years in Cincinnati with only one seed losing in each of the past two runs. Prior to that however, we had seen at least three seeds go one and done each run from 2021-2023. So what’s on tap for 2026?
(1)Heliovaara-Patten
You either love it or hate it when you have to play the same pair two straight weeks. Last week in Montreal, Heliovaara-Patten edged Goransson-Ruud 6-4, 7-6(6). The plus for the top seeds is that they’ve only lost an opener one time in 2026 back in Barcelona. The bad news? This was the strecth in 2025 where the 2026 Wimbledon champs lost their openers back-to-back in Cincinnati and New York. I don’t doubt Goransson-Ruud will take a set this time and it’s certainly likely to be another battle where a handful of points decide the match.
(4)Bolelli-Vavassori
The Italians dropped their opener in Montreal to Luz-Matos last week and have now lost two of three during the Summer hard court swing. They draw Rinderknech-Vacherot who I talked up earlier, so I do think they’re in for a fight in round one. Bolelli-Vavassori made the quarterfinals here last year, so they can win on this surface, but this is a tough draw. They’ll need to step up or another early exit could await them.
(6)Krawietz-Puetz
Krawietz has been playing with different partners post-Wimbledon with Puetz taking a break. He comes back into a difficult spot for an all-German round one affair against Schnaitter-Wallner. Those two outlasted Krawietz-Puetz 7-6, 3-6, 13-11 when they met indoors in Rotterdam early this year. Krawietz-Puetz haven’t lost an opener in three years playing Cincinnati, but they do have four opening losses this season and the one to Schnaitter-Wallner was a round one clash. Schnaitter-Wallner narrowly lost to Arribage-Olivetti to start in Montreal, 10-7 in a super tie break, so I’d expect them to play well and have a shot to unseat their countrymen in this one.
(7)Cash-Glasspool
The Brits were disappointing opening losers last week in Montreal to a Cerundolo-Etcheverry pairing that had not won a hard SET, never mind MATCH before ousting the DC champions in a super tie break. So I am set to included them on the list simply because in 2026, consistency and this pair have not been hanging out on a weekly basis. They get Ram-Salisbury who haven’t shown anything in their brief reunion to suggest a win is forthcoming, but Cerundolo-Etcheverry could have said similar a week ago. I won’t be surprised or Joe and Raj play better here and make this a tight one.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
First Quarter
Most weeks there is no question that Heliovaara-Patten are going to be in the title mix. That’s just how 2026 has been for the best team so far this season. That said, their loss to Cerundolo-Etcheverry last week showed that no one is immune to getting on the wrong side of those small margins in doubles. And if you recall to this time last year, you may remember that Heliovaara-Patten were taken out in their opener here and then again in New York. Both matches went the distance, but again those small margins went against them. I think this is a draw that could see some similar things happen with Goransson-Ruud up first in a rematch of last week’s clash in Montreal. Survival there and it doesn’t get easier with either late alternate entry Johnson-Zielinski or Nys/Roger-Vasselin in round two. Nys/Roger-Vasselin do own a victory over the top seeds this year. It’s going to be a fight if they can get to a quarterfinal.
In the bottom half, (6)Krawietz-Puetz face a comparably tough road to getting some wins. It’s Germans Schnaitter-Wallner up first, a pair that owns a 13-11 super tie break win over the seeded Germans in 2026. This is a tricky spot with Krawietz-Puetz having not paired since Wimbledon with Puetz taking a breather the last few weeks. They’ve also been somewhat inconsistent this year, so you never know what you’re gonna get. The match opposite that pits Doumbia-Reboul against Buse-Cobolli. The French look to get back on track after being forced from the draw in DC due to injury, an injury that kept them from playing Montreal last week. As the current #10 pair in the rankings, these are the tournaments where a couple of wins can go a long way in helping them keep in position to grab one of those eight spots for the Tour FInals. They are just 80 away from 8th. Buse-Cobolli paired for the first time last week in Montreal, losing handily to Heliovaara-Patten. This could be a different situation, especially given that Doumbia-Reboul had fitness concerns the last couple of weeks. I would not be surprised to see some upsets in this part of the draw.
Second Quarter
This quarter could open up quickly with both (4)Bolelli-Vavassori and (5)Harrison-Skupski stumbling a bit during this swing at 1-2 each. Harrison-Skupski look to have a better set up early against a pair in Luz-Matos who they have absolutely owned in 2026 with a 4-0 record and only one set dropped. That said, Luz-Matos will be full of confidence after their superb run to the Montreal titles last week. Of course there’s also the flip side where human nature could lead to a let down after the biggest titles of their careers. I expect a good battle and if the Brazilians are going to get their first win against the 5th seeds, this has to be the spot. The winners could be set up well with Melo-Zverev battling Navone-Tabilo opposite of them. Melo-Zverev have played CIncy three other times and have never lost in round one, so that’s a feather in their caps. They have lost their opener in six of nine tournaments this year though, so maybe pluck that feather. Navone-Tabilo pair for the first time as they slid into the draw late due to another singles pair withdrawing, so we’ll have to see how they fare. Reasonably, Melo-Zverev should have the edge in getting to round two. Give me the Harrison-Skupski/Luz-Matos winner to make the quarters though and even with their season very middling now, I tend to think Harrison-Skupski are the ones.
The Bolelli-Vavassori half starts with the Italians in a pickle against Rinderknech-Vacherot. The singles pair has proven they can be tough in the doubles game and with the fourth seeded Italians still looking to find their footing during this hard court swing, this could be an opportunity for an upset. The winner is going to see a tough out no matter who survives the other match in this quadrant. It’s Bhambri-Venus getting Pavlasek-Rikl who got an alternate entry into the tournament. Bhambri-Venus showed up and played some of their better tennis in a bit in splitting two matches in Montreal with a win over Harrison-Skupski and a super tie break loss to Arribage-Olivetti. Pavlasek-Rikl got onto hard courts for the first time as a duo last week in Montreal. The Czechs won one and lost one (Arevalo-Pavic). Bhambri-Venus do own a head-to-head win on clay this year in Geneva over the Czech mates. Regardless, rate the survivors as mini-sleepers in this section with Bhambri-Venus having played the fourth seeded Italians twice with both losses coming on clay. Hard courts should give them a better shot, but it all comes down to their serving.
TOP HALF FORECAST
This shapes up to be a fascinatiing half of the draw with all the seeds really needing to answer some questions this week. The hottest pair coming in are Luz-Matos, but they have arguably drawn the worst first round opponent for themselves in Harrison-Skupski with that lopsided head-to-head record. I’m a fan of the Brazilians, but I feel like a let down is coming. Perhaps I’m putting too much stake into the Heliovaara-Patten struggles this time last year, but let’s not forget their debut year in 2024 they didn’t do better than the quarterfinals here between the Canadian Masters, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. This could just be one of those jinxy parts of the season for an otherwise superb pair. I look to the Harrison-Skupski draw as perhaps the best for the seeded pairs here, but their season needs a boost as the Australian Open triumph still stands as their lone final of 2026. Now if we could get Bolelli-Vavassori versus Harrison-Skupski in the quarters, sign me up as those two have played a pair of bangers that ended with two super tie break wins for the Italians. If there’s an unseeded runner or two to be found, I fancy Bhambri-Venus or the survivor of that Paul-Shelton/Nys-ERV round one battle. I think this half is fairly difficult to predict given the state of the seeds coming in, so this could go a lot of different ways. Let’s get nuts.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Bhambri-Venus
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
(2)Arevalo-Pavic lead the charge in this quarter, coming off a disappointing loss in the Montreal final. Still, they have found their best form and might be considered the best pair going right now after making three straight finals. The issue has been finishing with only one title to show for that stretch. They won Cincinnati two years ago and made the quarterfinals last year. I think their set up is decent with Khachanov-Rublev up first. The Russians have dropped their openers in three of the last four tournaments played. I don’t doubt a set or two will be close, but Arevalo-Pavic should have the edge. Round two could see them against Arribage-Olivetti. They have to get past the first time singles team of Fery-Lehecka. Lehecka has had a random run or two in doubles in his career and he was part of the duo (w/Mensik) that knocked out Heliovaara-Patten last year. Fery has rarely played doubles, no matches this year, but does have a 3rd run Wimbledon result to his credit alongside Charles Broom back in 2024. Their highlight win came over Koolhof-Mektic. Given that Arribage-Olivetti have played super tie breaks in four of their five matches this swing, I would be shocked of Fery-Lehecka didn’t have an opportunity to steal a win. I’ll stick with Arevalo-Pavic to make the quarterfinals.
In the other half, (7)Cash-Glasspool look to get back in the win column after last week’s opening loss in Montreal. Ram-Salisbury play the 5th match of their 2026 rebirth and it’s just been a struggle with a 1-3 record with opening losses in three of four tournaments. Unfortunately this is another tough spot, but given the seeded Brits’ own struggles with consistency, this might end up being a wild one. I don’t know, but I got the Piggy sense tingling that Ram-Salisbury might notch what is right now, a very rare win. Opposite of that, it’s Miedler-Polmans now going against another pair of specialists, Frantzen-Haase, after Medvedev-Tien pulled out. Miedler-Polmans are still looking for a non-clay win after notching eight wins in eight matches on clay to start their partnership. They’ve dropped openers in DC and Montreal with three of the four regulation sets going to tie breaks. Their loss in Montreal came to Goransson-Ruud in a super tie break. Frantzen-Haase will make this a great one to watch. Don’t forget that pair made a U.S. Open quarterfinal run just a year ago. This half looks open to interpretation with Cash-Glasspool having made the semifinals here a year ago, but not showing that same consistency in 2026. That could open the door for a Miedler-Polmans to make a surprise run or perhaps the ultimate surprise in seeing Ram-Salisbury win a few matches.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter sees (2)Granollers-Zeballos looking to shake off the rust after losing their opener in Montreal last week. It was their first match since a disappointing second round exit at Wimbledon. Cincy has been all over the map for results for the two seeds, winning the titles in 2021 and making the semifinals last year, but that was after losing in round one here in 2023. It’s Cabral-Tracy to start this week. This new pair got their first win together in Montreal over Ram-Salisbury. Their two losses have come in super tie breaks, so they have been competitive. It might not be a shock to see a super tie break in this round one battle. Granollers-Zeballos really need a win to build some momentum. The other match in this quadrant has Krajicek-Mektic against Tracy’s former partner, Robert Cash and Brandon Nakashima. The American wildcard entries play for the first time together, but I already touched on both being talented enough to grab a first time win. Krajicek-Mektic have been up and down on this surface in 2026 with two titles in tournaments along with five opening match losses. This is a toss-up for me and I think I’m leaning towards Cash-Nakashima getting the win.
In the other half of this quarter, it’s (8)Andreozzi-Guinard up against wildcards Galloway-King in round one. The seeds made back-to-back quarterfinals in DC and Montreal, so they’re in a good form. Galloway-King have played together before, but have just two matches in 2026 with an 0-2 record. That should set up Andreozzi-Guinard for a chance to get on a mini-run at least. It may still be competitive, but I expect the seeds to survive. The other match here has Arnaldi-Musetti versus Darderi-Etchevery in an all-singles battle. Darderi-Etcheverry have played before, but are 0-4. They have shown a competitive streak in some of those, but I think this one is about a 50/50 call. I’m gonna stick with the all-Italian pair. While Andreozzi-Guinard have a nice draw, this also feels like a trap, doesn’t it? I do think they have a big shot to get to the semifinals though if they can navigate through those unseeded speed bumps.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
The one seeded pair that is hard to question right now is (3)Arevalo-Pavic. Three straight finals will do that for you. While there are some pitfalls in their quarter, I still like them to get to the final four. As for the other spot in this half, can Granollers-Zeballos get going this week? It’s not straight forward with their draw as I do think some of the unseeded pairs in their path could make things hairy. If there’s a pair that can unseat them though, look Andreozzi-Guinard. The sixth seeds are 2-0 against Granollers-Zeballos with a pair of super tie break wins this season. If there’s an outsider to take a peek at in this half, don’t discount that Arnaldi-Musetti pairing and maybe one of the former partners (Cash-Tracy) seeing their newer pairing this week getting on a hot streak. I don’t know why, but I’m stuck on Cash-Nakashima being a factor.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Arevalo-Pavic vs (6)Andreozzi-Guinard
Cincinnati is close to a last gasp for a lot of the higher seeded regular pairs to find some form prior to the U.S. Open. Only Andreozzi-Guinard amongst this week’s seeds are currently signed up to play Winston-Salem in another week. Quite frankly there’s not a seed here who couldn’t use a run for their confidence ahead of New York. I am following Arevalo-Pavic’s recent hot streak and have them as the pair that should be deemed the favorites this week. Andreozzi-Guinard might be seeded sleepers if that’s a thing. I don’t think too many will be looking at them in that half with Arevalo-Pavic and Granollers-Zeballos, but they have shown the ability to beat both of the higher seeds in this half. They should be a factor if they take care of business early. I could be off base on the top half, but I am thinking an unseeded pair makes the final. Nys/Roger-Vasselin, Bhambri-Venus or a shock from one of the singles pairs with Rinderknech-Vacherot still my favorite choice. It should be a fun week to see if the top tier teams take back their hold on the doubles circuit or if we see someone off-the-beaten path pull up in Cincinnati to take the titles.
Arevalo-Pavic
Andreozzi-Guinard
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