CINCINNATI NEWS & NOTES
*Dabrowski-Routliffe won last year’s titles as the two seeds with a 6-4, 6-3 victory over unseeded Guo-Panova in the final. Dabrowski-Routliffe were 1.67 (-149) favorites in the final. Their inclusion in the final made it three consecutive trips to Cincy where a top three seed made the final. The last unseeded champion came in 2023 when Parks-Townsend outlasted (3)Melichar-Martinez/Perez in the final. They were actually the favorites in that championship match with the last true underdog win in the final coming in 2022 when (7)Kichenok-Ostapenko edged MM-Perez as 2.03 (+103) dogs. One thing you don’t want to be in Cincinnati is the top seeds. The #1 seeds at the Cincinnati Open haven’t been to the final since 2009, which is also the last time the top seeded pair won here (Black-Huber). Sorry Siniakova-Townsend fans.
*Unseeded pairs have had a ton of success at the Cincinnati Open. The Unseeded Menaces have a five year streak of making the final in the Queen City with two of those seeing the unseeded pair winning the championship. Interestingly, only twice in that span have unseeded pairs claimed more than one spot in the semifinals. There have also only been two super tie breaks in the final in the last five years with those coming in 2023 and 2024.
*Super tie breaks overall in 2025 were plentiful with a dozen matches out of 29 completed matches needing the extra frame. Seven of those came in round one with three of those involving seeded pairs. Four more STBs came in round two with only one coming in the final three rounds (one semifinal). The overall number was up slightly from ten super tie break involved matches in 2024. Four came in round one and then three of the four quarterfinals went the distance as the two rounds with the most STBs. Dating back a few more runs in Cincinatti, 2023 saw nine super tie breaks and 2022 matched 2025 with 12 STBs. Keep an eye on the quarterfinals for super tie breaks. Last year it was a shutout in that round, but the previous five runs in Cincy had seen multiple STBs in that round.
*Underdog wins last year were somewhat sparse with only seven of the 29 matches going the way of the bow-wows. Two of those were large at just above 3.00 (+200) with one on the opening round courtesy of the three seeds Townsend-Zhang losing. The other came in the semifinals when Guo-Panova crushed the top seeds Errani-Paolini in straights. Five of the seven u-dog wins last year involved a seeded pair falling short. 2024 saw nine underdog wins with seeds losing again making up a majority of that formula with five of the dog wins involved a seeded loss. There were two humongous hits that year at 4.00 (+300) or better. 2023 had eight underdog victories. Five of those involved a seed getting ousted from the tournament.
*I mentioned how the top seed have not fared well here historically, so can Siniakova-Townsend buck that trend? They come to Cincinnati as the top seeds in the rankings with Dabrowski-Stefani more than 500 points back in second and Danilina-Krunic about 800 points behind in third. This will be their first match since their Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Guo-Mladenovic. That was just the second time in seven tournaments that they had failed to make the semifinals or final. The last time they played Cincy together, they were dropped in the quarterfinals. Can they turn the tide this week? Rounding out the top four seeds are Danilina-Krunic, Guo-Mladenovic and Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez. An interesting footnote on those pairs: none have won a match together since Wimbledon and Bucsa-MM are playing for the first time together since the French Open due to Bucsa’s wrist injury. Both Guo-Mladenovic and Danilina-Krunic lose their first hard court match during this swing last week in Toronto.
*One of the key stories this week will be the duos jockeying for position at the back end of the top right in the doubles race rankings. Currently, Mihalikova-Nicholls and Hsieh-Ostapenko hold down spots seven and eight. Only about 80 points separates those two pairs. Then you have Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez in 10th, just 100 points behind the eight spot. The 9th spot is occupied by Zvonareva-Siegemund, but seems likely to be moot with Siegemund announcing a break from tennis that will last through at least the U.S. Open and likely longer. Then you have Aoyoma-Liang and Errani-Paolini in 11th and 12th. The Italians may also be a non-factor in this race due to Jasmine’s struggles with the foot injury, so the last few spots may come down to a battle with Aoyama-Liang, Bucsa-MM, Mihalikova-Nicholls and Hsieh-Ostapenko all fighting for two spots. And wouldn’t you know …. Hsieh-Ostapenko and Mihalikova-Nicholls are set to battle it out in round one, so a HUGE opportunity for the winner there to put some space between themselves and the loser at the least.
With the success of unseeded pairs making the final in Cincinnati over the last five years or so, it seems likely we may see another duo crash the party at the end. Here’s a look at the danger duos for this tournament.
Perez-Schuurs
It’s a testament to the depth in this week’s field that a pair that is holding steady at 6th in the live rankings would be unseeded in Cincinnati. This has just been an overall steady, not flashy pair in 2026 at 24-16. They’ve only made one final, but they have also made at least the quarterfinals in eight of their last ten tournaments. They’re in the Siniakova-Townsend quarter, so they might need some help to make a deeper run with an 0-2 record against the top seeds. Still, they figure to possibly position themselves for that shot at the #1 seeds, so anything could be possible.
Dabrowski-Krejcikova
This is a first time pairing of multiple Grand Slam winners, so how could they not be seen as potential menaces? Chemistry is certainly key, but you’d expect a pair with their resumes to figure it out and be competitive from the jump. They’re in what easily looks like the toughest quarter with Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez as their opener and an in-form pair in Routliffe-Sutjiadi as the other seeds. There’s also more unseeded potential here too, so it’s going to be earned — whatever they get. I think the one thing that probably holds this pair back the most is Krejcikova playing singles. That’s going to take priority if she makes a run.
Andreeva-Cirstea/Errani-Fernandez
The gut feeling here is the survivor of this first round clash is going to be a factor. Andreeva-Cirstea were routed by Siniakova-Zhang in their debut last week in Toronto. That’s not a big blemish as that is a harsh first opponent to have to face. This week, we should find out more on whether those two have any chemistry to be factors in doubles. Errani-Fernandez are a first-time team up in Cincy. Errani has had to switch around with Paolini sidelined and she found a good partnership with Melichar-Martinez with that pair making a couple of finals. Fernandez has not found the right partner on hard courts in 2026 (2-7) but do recall Cincinnati was the site of one of her best doubles runs, a finals trip in 2024 with Putintseva.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Four of the last five years in Cincinnat have seen multiple seeds go down in their openers. The #8 seeds are on a three-year losing skid in round one, so which pairs could be in trouble right away? Here’s a look at this week’s seeds who could be headed home early.
(2)Danilina-Krunic
It’s not that I don’t believe in this pair as they’ve had a highly successful 2026 … but … they have levelled off since losing the French Open final. Over the course of their last four tournaments, they’re 3-4 with an opening loss in Toronto. Maybe they just needed to get acclimated to hard courts again, but I’ll keep them on the list for another week. Li-Tauson are their first round foes and they have proven capable on multiple surfaces. They may be just 2-3 in limited play in 2026, but three of those matches went the distance and includes tough losses to Zvonareva-Siegemund in Paris and Hsieh-Ostapenko last week in Toronto. Those are two pairs ranked in the mix for WTA Finals spots, so they aren’t likely to be completely overwhelmed in this one. I think this is a big tournament for Danilina-Krunic to refind their groove or they could be on this list again at the US Open.
(4)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Welcome back? It’s the first time we’re seeing this pair since the French Open due to Bucsa’s injury woes. Melichar-Martinez found a nice part-time partner in Sara Errani for a large portion of the Summer, so she’s stayed in-form and ready to go. The reward for this reunion? A first round fight against Dabrowski-Krejcikova! If there’s a dream first time team-up, this definitely should be one of them. Dabrowski has had a great season with Luisa Stefani as her regular partner, but will once again have a new partner on hard courts after a tough loss paired with Alexandrova in Toronto last week, 11-9 in a super tie break against Gauff-Pegula. For Krejcikova, this is an increasingly rare doubles appearance for one of the doubles GOATs (10 doubles’ Slam titles). The Czech will be playing just her fourth doubles match of the season, but this will be her third partner, so she’s used to having a fresh face alongside her. Stil, she’s struggled to find consistent results without Siniakova, so it remains to be seen what this duo can do. I would be surprised if they didn’t have a real shot at winning this one though.
(7)Routliffe-Sutjiadi
Former partners go head-to-head for the first time since splitting this year when Asia Muhammad and Erin Routliffe meet on opposite sides of the net in this one. Routliffe-Sutjiadi rekindled an old partnership from 2023 and reeled off five straight wins, including a title in Washington DC before losing to Mihalikova-Nicholls in Toronto last week. Muhammad has found more ups and downs with Stollar as her regular partner. They had a nice grass swing (6-4), but are only 2-3 off of grass this season. I don’t think there’s any ill-will at all between the former partners who just never clicked, but it makes this one a more fascinating watch and gives it some juice for a possible upset.
(8)Mertens-Shnaider
These two play a second tournament together after their debut as a pair in Toronto last week ended in the quarterfinals. They carry the misfortune of being the #8 seeds which you saw in the graphic above has not been a good number to be in the last three years at this stop. They square off against Chan-Joint in round one. That’s a relatively fresh pairing as well with this being their third tournament together. They made the Memphis final in their debut tournament earlier this Summer and scored a nice win over Aoyama-Liang in Toronto last week. This is an interesting one as I’m not sure what to expect with two pairs still getting to know their partners a bit.
DRAW PREVIEW
Click HERE for the doubles draw
TOP HALF
First Quarter
Can (1)Siniakova-Townsend overcome what looks like a top seed curse in Cincinnati? If there’s any pair you’d bet on being the first top seeds in the final here in more than 15 years, they’d probably be at the top of the list. They’ll like their chances of smashing through this quarter and getting into the semifinals. Jiang-Zhang is a first-time duo that is seeded on the other side of the quarter. More immediately, the top seeds should be able to settle in against Jurak-Wu in round one. Round two may not really pose a sizeable risk either. Tang-Xu might get past Jovic-McNally, but that’s no gimme. Tang-Xu have made a couple of semifinals on hard courts this swing, but facing the top seeds would by far be their toughest matchup of the season. Jovic-McNally are a bit of a wildcard here with little experience together, but both showing some good results in doubles with other partners.
The other half of this quarter has Jiang-Zhang looking to get off with a win against Piter-Tjen. Piter-Tjen did win the titles in Hobart way back in January, but have gone 2-3 since then with a pair of opening losses. Jiang-Zhang should have the opportunity to grab the win if they can mesh well. The other match in this half could be a low-key banger with Perez-Schuurs up against Eikeri-Gleason. Eikeri-Gleason did most of their best stuff on clay, but they’ve shown a competitive streak on hard courts too. Perez-Schuurs will need to bring their A-games to get the win. I do think the survivor of this one will have a chance to upset (6)Jiang-Zhang for that quarterfinal spot. At the end of the day though, this quarter really looks tailor-made for Siniakova-Townsend.
Second Quarter
This easily looks like your typical “group of death” quarter with a lot of quality depth in this section. Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez lead this quarter as the four seeds, but as previously mentioned, have not paired since the French Open. Couple that with a first round date against Dabrowski-Krejcikova and you’ve got yourself a recipe for possibly being one and done. I won’t sleep on whoever wins the other match in this half of the quarter. Bouzkova-Noskova battle Dolehide-Navarro in round one. Bouzkova-Noskova are just 1-2 in limited action, but all three matches went to super tie breaks and came against pairs with accomplished doubles players. Dolehide-Navarro last paired in 2021, so this will be a bit of an ask for them to rediscover that connection quickly. Dolehide missed a lot of time due to injury, but has returned with an 8-1 record that includes two titles. For Navarro, this will be her first doubles match since pairing with her sister here in Cincinnati last year. I think Bouzkova-Noskova might get the better of them in this one. I think Dolehide-Navarro would be the only pair that would really surprise me if they grab the quarterfinal spot in this half.
The other half pits (7)Routliffe-Sutjiadi against Muhammad-Stollar in what could be a real cracker of a match. I think it’s important for Routliffe-Sutjiadi to get this win. Not that a loss in Toronto to Mihalikova-Nicholls was bad in round two, but I think they have bigger aspirations for New York and you don’t want to head to the U.S. Open with two straight losses. The other pair in this half with a similar feel is Aoyama-Liang. They lost their opener in Toronto, which was their first hard court match together. They get Neel-Olmos in round one, a pair that took them to a super tie break on grass in Hertogenbosch before losing 10-7. Neel-Olmos also have two impressive wins over Danilina-Krunic this Summer, so they’re going to be tough. In reality, this part of the draw feels like it could go to anyone of these four, so it’s going to be interesting viewing.
TOP HALF FORECAST
If there’s another unseeded semifinalist on tap in Cincinnati, they may well come from this top half of the draw and that extremely difficult second quarter. Pick your poison because there’s a handful of unseeded duos who could make the run and it wouldn’t be all that shocking. Dabrowski-Krejcikova might be a popular pick, but I am looking more to that Aoyoma-Liang/Neel-Olmos winner because I’m still not sure about Krejcikova on double duty. Of the seeds, Siniakova-Townsend for me are in cement as a semifinal pick, whether that’s good or bad. I think both Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez and Routliffe-Sutjiadi have tougher draws and it would not be surprising to see one or both fall short of a quarterfinal. The pair that would be best suited to keeping Siniakova-Townsend from making the final? Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez. They own a win over them in Rome this year or maybe it’s Dabrowski-Krejcikova if everything aligns well for them.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Siniakova-Townsend vs Neel-Olmos
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
There will be many eyes on this part of the draw at least for round one with the scheduled return of Venus and Serena Williams to the doubles court. If it happens, we will see the sisters first match together since 2022. Venus has struggled all-around for wins in singles and doubles (3-8) with Serena having played just two doubles matches (1-1). Expecting a lot from them would be unwise, just as expecting them to fail would also be much the same. We have to see what they have on the court together, but I’m not expecting to see more than a couple matches for the sisters. They will start with Kostyuk-Stearns in a battle of wildcard entries. With Kostyuk-Stearns never having paired previously, that could open the door for the Williams’ sisters to grab a win, but they are the underdogs in this match according to oddsmakers and perhaps logic. This match is in the half with Wimbledon champs (3)Guo-Mladenovic who are looking to shake off a loss in Toronto last week. Round one should give them a shot with first time team Kato-Kichenok on deck. Those are two capable doubles players especially seeing Kato having won a title in Athens this Summer with Chan, but this is a rough opening matchup. Guo-Mladenovic are no shoe-ins to advance, but they should still like the looks of this draw.
To the top half where (5)Hsieh-Ostapenko can put some distance between themselves and some of the pairs trying to chase them down for the last spots for the WTA Finals in the live race. I mentioned early on that they’re sitting in 8th, but they’re just a win away from jumping their first round opponents Mihalikova-Nicholls. A 5-0 record H2H for the seeds says they should be in 7th by the time that first round clash is done. Watch out for the winner of the other first rounder between Detiuc-Khromacheva and Klepace Lumsden. Detiuc-Khromacheva are a solid tandem that won a clay court title in mid-July and has gone 13-7 this year. The question will be how they fare on hard courts with this being their first foray onto the blue stuff after playing clay and grass this Spring/Summer. They get Klepac-Lumsden in round one. That’s another pair playing for the first time together, but Lumsden in particular is on fire this year at 35-19. She’s made three hard court finals this Summer with three different partners, winning two titles. Hsieh-Ostapenko will be favorites to grab the quarterfinal spot, but I don’t think it will be straight forward.
Fourth Quarter
The last part of the draw sees (2)Danilina-Krunic as the lead seeds with (8)Mertens-Shnaider in the other half. Danilina-Krunic could use some wins this week ahead of the U.S. Open after a so-so Summer. Li-Tauson in round one isn’t going to be simple, so don’t be surprised if that one goes to a super tie break with some upset potential. Danilina-Krunic are 18-7 on hard courts this year, but have lost their last two openers on the surface. Hunter-Krawczyk take on Kempen-Panova in the other round one clash. Hunter-Krawczyk are 3-2 on hard courts this Summer with a solid quarterfinal showing last time out in Toronto. Kempen-Panova lost their first hard court match to Li-Tauson last week in Toronto, so they’ll need to prove they can win on this surface. They were solid on grass and clay, so getting some time on the surface last week should help. I think if Danilina-Krunic get that first win, they could get on a bit of a roll here, but it’s up for debate whether they’ll escape round one.
I talked already about the problem the #8 seed has had here in Cincinnati with three straight Cincinnati Opens seeing the eight seed fall in round one. Chan-Joint will pose a challenge for (8)Mertens-Shnaider I believe. The winner won’t be guaranteed anything moving forward. The other match in this half sees Errani-Fernandez against Andreeva-Cirstea. Somebody will get a nice win and perhaps the confidence necessary to move through this part of the draw. I don’t see Mertens-Shnaider as unbeatable, but they’re also a pair that could take advantage of this part of the draw opening up if Danilina-Krunic fall early. A good fight in round one may go a long way for the eight seeds to break free of that first round jinx for that number in Cincy and then it could be game on for them to grab the semifinal berth.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
This half has a lot of question marks with the two highest seeds both looking to get untracked after losing their first matches of the hard court Summer. Does that open the door for an unseeded pair? There are some capable ones in this half, but I tend to think one of the seeds is going to get to the final. Hsieh-Ostapenko looked good last week in Toronto and I do like their draw. While Guo-Mladenovic can expect to improve after losing in Toronto, they’re below .500 on hard courts since winning the Auckland titles on this surface. I don’t doubt they’ll be in the last eight, but I’d take Hsieh-Ostapenko over them. Danilina-Krunic are still ones to watch. We know they are capable of knocking off Siniakova-Townsend and might be on par with Hsieh-Ostapenko in that department. If there’s a sleeper, stick with a seed and go with Mertens-Shnaider. They’d be the more unlikely of the seeds to advance, but they do have a decent looking path to do so.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (5)Hsieh-Ostapenko vs (8)Mertens-Shnaider
A few teams this week can really help themselves in the hunt for one of those top eight spots in the rankings. A big run or title run by the likes of a Hsieh-Ostapenko or Aoyama-Liang could really cement their place in the rankings. That said, the big favorite is always going to be Siniakova-Townsend. Twelve wins in 13 hard court matches this year and five hard court finals in their last eight hard court tournaments say that’s a no brainer. Now there are still a few pairs that have stepped up and beat them in the past. Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez might be the only pair in the top half who you’d really like head-to-heard, while both Danilina-Krunic and Hsieh-Ostapenko also own wins against this week’s #1 seeds. The good news for Siniakova-Townsend is Bucsa-MM are in the toughest quarter and they wouldn’t have to see either of those other two aforementioned pairs until a final.
The bad news of course is that pesky number: 15. That’s how many runs of the Cincinnati Open have come and gone without the top seeded pair on the ladies’ side winning the titles or even making a final. Can they break that streak or will Cincy claim another #1 seed prior to the final? I’m a trends guy until the trend gets busted, so I’ll very stupidly and with past, present and future regret, not include Siniakova-Townsend in my PigPix for the tournament. There’s no doubt they can and maybe should win this tournament, but I think the field will have something to say this week with plenty of quality pairs in their path. This should shape up to be one helluva tournament!
Hsieh-Ostapenko
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
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