ROME NEWS & NOTES
*There was some good home cookin’ in 2025 as Italians Errani-Paolini took home the titles as the #3 seeds. They defeated Kudermetova-Mertens 6-4, 7-5 in the finale at 1.85 (-118). That also made it back-to-back championships in Rome for Errani-Paolini, the first pair to repeat since Gigi Fernandez and Natalia Zvereva did it way back in 1994-95. The title also marked the third time that Errani has won the doubles crowns in Rome in her career.
*The straight sets finish was the second in the last three years, but super tie breaks have been involved in the Rome final three of the last five runs overall. As for the 2025 version of the Italian Open, super tie breaks hit double digits with eleven out of the 29 completed matches require the extra frame. Five of those came in round one and all four quartfinals finished with STBs. The quarterfinals have featured multiple super tie breaks in five of the last six years.
*Underdog wins were scarce last year with only five dogs barking in Rome. Four came in round one with three involving a seeded loss. Two of those three topped 3.00 (+200). 2024 saw eight underdog wins with five in round one, but only one involved a seeded loss. 2023 also had eight underdog wins with the opening round again housing five of the wins. If you’re a dog hunter, the opening round looks like your spot and definitely pay mind to the matches involving seeds.
*2025 marked the second straight season that at least two unseeded pairs crashed the semifinals. You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time that the semifinal field featured all seeds. Errani-Paolini were the most recent unseeded champions in 2024. Six of the last seven Rome finals have seen an unseeded participant with three unseeded champs crowned since 2021. I will focus in one the unseeded pairs to monitor this year below in the Unseeded Menaces section.
*The lead in 2026 is Errani-Paolini’s quest to make history as the first pair to three-peat in Rome. Errani could also join Virginia Wade as the only women to win the doubles titles at this stop four times. Will they have to go through the best pair on tour in 2nd seeded Siniakova-Townsend to do so? That power duo has gone 17-1 this season and won their last three tournaments in Indian Wells, Miami and last time out in Madrid. They also own a pair of straight sets wins over the Italians in 2026, so there’s no doubt who this week’s favorites will be. Rounding out the top four seeds are Mertens-Zhang and Dabrowski-Stefani, who will reunite after last having played in Miami.
*Of note this week, we are seeing Ostapenko-Routliffe paired again after they lost their debut match in Madrid. Also, it does appear the highly successful Danilina-Krunic pairing is finished. That’s a story unto itself as that pairing is STILL the current #1 ranked team, 300 points ahead of Siniakova-Townsend. Danilina again pairs with Muhammad this week after they scored their first wins dropping to play at Saint-Malo last week. We’ll see if those reps help in Rome. And last, but not least, we get the resurgent Russians Andreeva-Shnaider paired for a second straight tournament. Their return to doubles last week in Madrid was a rousing success as they made the final. They showed no rust in their first match played together since late 2025 as they didn’t drop a set until getting beat by Siniakova-Townsend in the final. The Russians were semifinalists here a year ago and look like they’ll once again be every week threats as an unseeded pair. Speaking of which ….
I talked the unseeded pairs up early and how successful they have become lately in Rome in at least making the semifinals. So who could crash the final four this year?
Andreeva-Shnaider
The Russians showed they hadn’t skipped a beat after not playing together since last year’s WTA Finals when they reunited last week in Madrid. In 2025, they made the semifinals here in Rome, losing to Errani-Paolini in the semifinals. Clay has been good for them to the tune of a 16-5 career record and their draw could pit them against the defending champs again in the semifinals.
Siegemund-Zvonareva
One of our habitual inclusions to the Unseeded Menaces most times, this pair again proved dangerous in Madrid. They made the semifinals and scored their second win over Errani-Paolini in 2026. They’re in the same quarter as the Italians which could make for a mouth watering battle if both weave their way through to the quarterfinals.
Kenin-Samsonova
I put them on the list because of their placement in the draw. They’re in the Mertens-Zhang quarter with Danilina-Muhammad as the other seeds. With Mertens-Zhang not overly consistent from week-to-week, this could become a relatively open quarter. This pair made the quarters in Miami in their lone tournament together in 2026.5.9
Gauff-McNally
The all-American duo has paired plenty in their careers, but this will be their first time back together since 2023. They’ve done well on clay together at 7-2 overall. They could see Dabrowski-Stefani in round two and that could be a blockbuster for a berth into the quarterfinals.
Hunter-Pegula
This is an intriguing pair in perhaps the toughest quarter. With Ostapenko-Routliffe to open, they could be out early, but a win could really elevate their chances to make some noise. We’ve only seen this pairing once in 2026 and that was in Miami. They lost in the quarters to Mertens-Zhang 14-12 in a super tie break. They’ve got the talent, but the draw may ultimately keep them from being as big of a menace as they could be.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
For of the last five seasons have seen multiple seeds go down in their openers in Rome. Let’s take a look at the seeds who may have the toughest time escaping round one with a win.
(3)Mertens-Zhang
It’s been a very mixed bag for the 2026 Australian Open champs. Since winning that title, they’ve lost their opener in two of four tournaments and only made it past round two once. They get Hsieh-Wang to start in Rome. In case you’re not up to date on your past women’s French Open champions, Hsieh-Wang won the doubles titles there back in 2023. They may not have paired but once since that magical run, but there’s definitely some danger waiting for the seeds in round one.
(5)Ostapenko-Routliffe
A difficult draw pits them against Hunter-Pegula in round one. That’s boom or bust. Odds makers already have this as close to a 50-50 call, so you know there’s certainly a chance for an upset here. The thing that may come to fruition more than taking one of these pairs is looking for a banger and a super tie break finish.
(7)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
They square off against Maleckova-Skoch who have made consecutive finals in Linz and Rouen, winning the titles in Rouen. This is certainly an uptick in quality for them to face, but they’ve shown they are comfortable on clay and I expect they will put up a good fight against the seeds here with some upset potential.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
If Errani-Paolini are to grab a piece of history, they are likely going to embark on a difficult path once they get to the business end of the tournament. Their quarter has unseeded danger duos in Siegemund-Zvonareva and Hunter-Pegula lurking on one side along with 5th seeds Ostapenko-Routliffe. Let’s start in the Italians half where they go against a pair of 20-year old Italian wild cards in Maduzzi-Paganetti. That should afford the defending champs a chance to get out of the gates with a relatively straight forward victory. Round two will see them with another favorable match-up against either Noskova-Valentova or Chan-Stollar, both of which have played a minimal amount of matches together. I don’t see a problem for the top seeds to get to the quarterfinals, but that’s where it starts getting interesting.
In the bottom half, (5)Ostapenko-Routliffe could be one and done with Hunter-Pegula up first. That’s a banger waiting to happen. Hard to say who has the edge there with neither pair having a lot of reps together. The survivor likely sees the ever-dangerous Siegemund-Zvonareva in round two. They get Kato-Klepac first up and have only lost an opener one time in five tournaments played in 2026. Perhaps an interesting note is that one of Siegemund-Zvonareva’s five losses this year came to an Ostapenko-involved pairing with Zhang back in Stuttgart. Regardless, I think we’re in for another banger in the quarters where a super tie break might again be the calling card to a win. I’d probably side with the survivor of the Ostapenko-Routliffe/Hunter-Pegula match as a tough and tested side. Most of me thinks Ostapenko-Routliffe are going to find a way to get through. Any way you shake it out, the quarterfinal in this part of the draw is going to be must-see TV.
Quarter two may be all about whether or not (3)Mertens-Zhang can get themselves going. The Australian Opens champs have really only shown a glimpse of that same level of play post-Australia when they made the semifinals in Miami. Their other three tournaments played have resulted in two opening losses and a second round loss to Andreeva-Shnaider last time out in Madrid. Who is waiting for them potentially in round two in Rome? The “random” draw could gift us a rematch with Andreeva-Shnaider needing to survive Kichenok-Krawczyk first. Mertens-Zhang have Hsieh-Wang in round one. Let’s not forget Hsieh-Wang won the 2023 French Open titles, so that’s gonna be an interesting one in round one even if Hsieh and Wang have not paired since 2024.
In the bottom half, (6)Danilina-Muhammad should have a chance to build on the confidence they gained by winning a couple in Saint-Malo after their debut in Madrid fell flat 6-2, 6-1 to Eikeri-Gleason. In Rome, they square off with Jiang-Xu, who have lost their last three. This has to be a spot where the seeds step up and win. Opposite of that match, it’s Khromacheva-Olmos battling Kenin-Samsonova. Khromacheva-Olmos have lost three of four on clay during 2026, but two of the losses came in super tie breaks. This could be an under-the-radar one to watch in round one AND I do believe the winner is going to be a big challenge for Danilina-Muhammad for a berth in the quarterfinals. I would not be surprised to see one of those unseeded pairs make it through and that just make it unseeded versus unseeded in the quarters. Hsieh-Wang and Andreeva-Shnaider are going to have something to say about being in the other slot over Mertens-Zhang.
TOP HALF FORECAST
From the quarterfinals on, Errani-Paolini are going to have to navigate some awfully tough teams. Of course if you look at their championship runs in 2024 and 2025, that was the case then too, so they’ll be ready for the challenge. One of the things they’ve done best in Rome over the last two years is survive super tie breaks. They’ve won five of their ten matches here in STBs. I’m not counting against them to at least make it to the semifinals. Siegemund-Zvonareva have beaten them twice however, including last week in Madrid. Does home cooking make a big enough difference if they have to go through that Unseeded Menace again? I think it could.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Errani-Paolini vs Andreeva-Shnaider
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter is led by (4)Dabrowski-Stefani. They’ve been remarkably consisten this year with semifinals or better in four of five tournaments played. This will be their first time on clay together in 2026. Bouzkova-Panova in round one may be a bit tricky, but I think the seeds survive. Round two is where the fireworks may begin. That’s where most, including moi, will expect Gauff-McNally to be waiting. The Americans face the Indonesian pair Sutjiadi-Tjen in round one. Don’t sleep on them. They made the quarters in Madrid beating Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez and falling just short (10-8) in a super tie break to Siegemund-Zvonareva. If the Americans can’t find their rhythm, the Indonesians are fully capable of scoring the win. Either way, Dabrowski-Stefani will find a threat in round two and they’ll have to step up and play their best.
In the other half, (7)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez take on Maleckova-Skoch in round one. I talked a little about the unseeded pair earlier. They’ve won 14 of 18 on clay and made three finals. An upset could be brewing in round one. Opposite of that, it’s two unseeded pairs who figure to be tough outs in their own right: Eikeri-Gleason and Kichenok-Krunic. Eikeri-Gleason have made a couple of semifinals on clay already this year, while Kichenok-Krunic are pairing for the first time. This is Krunic’s third different partner on clay, so it’s interesting to watch as she adjusts to life without Danilina. I think this half is relatively open as none of the four getting through would be a big surprise to me. Bucsa-MM were a little disappointing in Madrid, so let’s see how they fare in different clay court conditions without the altitude.
To the final quarter where the cream of the crop resides in (2)Siniakova-Townsend. It’s their time to ascend to the #1 spot in the rankings. They arrive on a 15 match win streak where they’ve only dropped TWO sets in that span. That is DOMINATION. This quarter sets up well for them to better than 2024 stay in Rome that ended in the quarterfinals. The two seeds take on Cocciaretto-Fernandez to start. That’s a helluva way to debut as a pair. I don’t see much to get in the way of Siniakova-Townsend until at least the quarterfinals and even that may not be that big of a test. The other half pits (8)Perez-Schuurs against Mihalikova-Nicholls to open. MIhalikova-Nicholls did get some wins dropping down to play at La Bisbal last week, so maybe that breeds some confidence?
Perez-Schuurs have been solid on clay at 4-2 with a semifinal in Stuttgart and a quarterfinal in Madrid. I like them to move through to the quarters in this spot. Jovic-Kalinskaya may prove an interesting pair in this section, but they’ve never paired, so their ability to win more than one match here might be stretching it.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
Let’s go ahead and state the obvious. Siniakova-Townsend are probably 99 percent likely to be in the semifinals out of this half. It’s just about impossible to go against them given where they are right now and that’s another level or three above most. As for their semifinal opponent? That’s open to debate. Dabrowski-Stefani have made a habit of making that round, but this is that first trip onto clay together since 2023. There are some dangerous duos in their path, including that Gauff-McNally vs Sutjiadi-Tjen winner. That might the most dangerous unseeded pair in this half. Let’s go unseeded shenanigans for the other semifinal spot.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Gauff-McNally vs (2)Siniakova-Townsend
Do we get the super showdown for the title? #1 versus #2? Errani-Paolini going for the three-peat and Siniakova-Townsend going for another big title? It’s possible and I would not bet against it. There are certainly some speed bumps along the way, but the matchups most of the way still favor those two being in the final. For me, the two pairs that might have the best shot at preventing this are both in the same quarter: Dabrowski-Stefani and Gauff-McNally. An interesting twist if those two square off? Gauff-McNally beat Dabrowski-Stefani in the semifinals of the 2023 U.S. Open. Load it up and let’s go! Should be a great week.
Siniakova-Townsend
Errani-Paolini
Gauff-McNally
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