MADRID NEWS & NOTES
*(5)Granollers-Zeballos won the titles last year in Madrid over (1)Arevalo-Pavic 6-4, 6-4 as 1.66 (-151) favorites. That marked the third straight season that the favorite won the championship match, but they were the first seeded pair to take the titles since 2022. The straight sets finish was the second in a row.
*The all-seeded final ended a back-to-back run of unseeded champions in Madrid, but an unseeded team still crashed the semifinals (Harrison-King). Eight straight runs in Spain have now seen at least one unseeded pair in the final four. Until the Harrison-King run last year, “singles pairs” had been the bigger story among the unseeded deep runners with Korda-Thompson and Khachanov-Rublev winning the titles in 2023 and 2024.
*Seven underdogs tallied wins in 2025 with four of those coming in round one. The largest score was 2.97 (+197) when Cobolli-Musetti upset Doumbia-Reboul in their opener. There was just one dog hit from the quarterfinals onward last year. In 2024, there were eight dog hits. Round one was again the round to focus on with five u-dog wins, including the biggest at 5.09 (+409) when (4)Dodig-Krajicek fell early. In 2023, there were eleven dog wins. The round with the most? You guessed it, round one with seven, including a monster 7.09 (+609) winner.
*Super tie breaks were plentiful last year in Madrid with 13 of the 31 completed matches needing the extra frame. Round one housed the most with eight and round two had three more. 2024 had a dozen STB finishes with five in the opening round and three more in round two. 2023 had even more with 15 total with ten combined in rounds one and two, even split at five each round. Focus on those early rounds for our pal, the super tie break.
*All the big boys are in play this week, including the top seeds and defending champs Granollers-Zeballos. They’ve won the titles twice at this stop with the other coming in 2021. You have one guess on the last team to repeat in Madrid. I’ll give you a hint, you ain’t tryin’ if you ain’t guess Bryans. The legendary American duo won back-to-back championships in 2010-11. The rest of the top four this year includes Cash-Glasspool, Heliovaara-Patten and Harrison-Skupski. Harrison-Skupski enter Madrid in the top spot in the rankings with a solid 510 point lead on Heliovaara-Patten in second. Spots three through eight are separated by only 460 points, so this is a HUGE week for any team that makes a big run to make a move at this Masters 1000.
I touched on the success of the unseeded pairs in Madrid the last few years with two winning titles and several more being involved in the semifinals over the last seven or eight runs. That means it pays to focus on this year’s unseeded field to hunt down another surprise or two.
Andreozzi-Guinard
It’s a harsh draw for these two with a returning Bolelli-Vavassori up first and likely needing to go through Granollers-Zeballos just to get to semifinal. Still, this mercurial pair remains a difficult one to predict each week. They beat Granollers-Zeballos in Monte Carlo, but were routed in the quarters in Barcelona last week by Arneodo-Polmans. Clay has still been their steadiest surface this year though with three semifinal finishes out of four tournaments played. If any team is going to pull off some ridiculously difficult upsets, my money would be on these two.
Nys/Roger-Vasselin
I’ve been on board with a resurgence for this duo and while the wins did not continue in Barcelona with the pair splitting two matches, their competitive nature has most definitely picked up since the switch to clay. They have the semifinal run in Monte Carlo to show for this swing and their two losses were both in super tie breaks to Krawietz-Puetz and Cash-Glasspool. They’re in an interesting quarter where the “random” draw could pit them against Cabral-Salisbury for the third straight tournament. It’s a difficult draw, but this team is on the rise.
Luz-Matos
My Brazilians continue to be one of the most consistent duos on clay. They’ve played five tournaments on clay with three finals (2 titles) and a 13-3 record. All three losses came in super tie breaks, so they are rarely not in it to win it.
Krajicek-Mektic
A gut feel on this one with these two struggling at 9-9 in 2026. They’re just 1-2 on this clay swing, but most of their matches are twisting on some key points. Three of their last four sets have gone to tie breaks, but they have not won any of those sets. They need to get by what could be a tricky Spanish wild card team in round one, but they would be a scary sight for Cash-Glasspool or Doumbia-Reboul in round two. They may go out early, but one of those tournaments, it feels like the small margins may finally go in their favor.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Multpl seeds have bit the dust early each of the last seven runs in Madrid, including a top four seed in the last six. Let’s take a look at the early draws for the seeds who may be in trouble of finding an early exit.
(2)Cash-Glasspool
Perhaps the Brits have found themselves after their Barcelona title run last time out. They have only lost twice in openers in 2026 out of nine tournaments played. Still, new week and new things to prove as they draw Doumbia-Reboul to start. They played indoors in Vienna last Fall with Cash-Glaspool prevailing 10-5 in a super tie break. I would not be surprised to see this one go to a STB and you never know how those play out.
(5)Arevalo-Pavic
After making the Monte Carlo final, they fell in their opener in Barcelona in straights to Herbert-Vavassori. They get Americans Tommy Paul and Ethan Quinn who did partner in Brisbane this year, taking a set off Cash-Glasspool before losing in a super tie break. Last year Arevalo-Pavic made the Madrid final, but the year prior, they lost their opener. This one might be trickier than expected.
(7)Cabral-Salisbury
They’ll be glad to avoid Nys/Roger-Vasselin, at least in round one, for a third straight tournament. Their new partnership has shown a good edge to it, but they’ve failed to win either of the two super tie breaks they’ve played. Drawing Cerundolo-Etcheverry wouldn’t be a big deal on other surfaces, but on clay where they’ve shown their most competitive, this could wind up being another tight one that goes the distance.
(8)Bolelli-Vavassori
It’s a difficult draw for the Italians (perhaps) with Andreozzi-Guinard up first. This will be the Italians first time partnering since their Miami win due to the passing of Simone’s father. The Italians fell in their opener here a year ago with another harsh draw against Salisbury-Skupski.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
(1)Granollers-Zeballos lead the way in the first quarter where they face off against Arneodo-Vacherot. The pair from Monaco are making their debut as a doubles duo. That’s a big ask against one of the top teams in the world. Vacherot has had some success with Rinderknech, but they had reps prior to their best run earlier in Indian Wells. This could be an interesting one, but I think the two-time Madrid champs move on. Round two pits them against the survivor between Erler-Miedler and Bhambri-Venus which could be a low-key banger in round one. Bhambri-Venus have a couple of semifinals on clay since reforming late in March. I do think they can pose a sizeable threat to the top seeds if that’s the match-up, so sign me up to see that one.
In the bottom half, it’s real guesswork as to how (8)Bolelli-Vavassori will fare with Bolelli sure to be a bit emotional as he returns to the court for the first time since his father passed. Andreozzi-Guinard as I pointed out earlier are the prototypical box of chocolates on the ATP Tour because you never know what you’re gonna get. On clay however, you’re a bit more apt to like their chances of pulling off some upsets. It’s been a good surface for them (7-4 this year) and if there’s a time to get the Italians, this might be it. The match opposite theirs pits Melo-Zverev against Darderi-Tsitsipas. Melo-Zverev have lost their openers in three of their last four tournaments. Darderi-Tsitsipas played just once together last Summer in Cincinnati, so it will be a rediscovering process for them. Tough to say who has an edge, but odds makers really like Melo-Zverev in this spot (1.32/-312).
It doesn’t look like an easy road for Granollers-Zeballos. They will be tested, but these are also teams they should feel comfortable paired against. The outsiders to watch would be Andreozzi-Guinard and I think Bhambri-Venus. I may be wrong about the Italians, but I feel like this is going to be good for them to get back on the court together and let the emotions out, but that doesn’t necessarily bode well for making a deep run this week at least. I would keep an eye on them in Rome.
The second quarter has (4)Harrison-Skupski and (7)Cabral-Salisbury. Harrison-Skupski have lost their last two openers on clay in super tie breaks. One was a quarterfinal in Barcelona to Arevalo-Pavic due to them advancing in round two via a withdrawal. They square off against Cash-Tracy who have shown some form on clay with the Marrakech titles this Spring, but they’ve lost their last two since and have had trouble claiming signature wins over the top tier teams. We could see last year’s surprise pair Harrison-King on opposite sides of the net in round two if Goransson-King can get by Arends-Pel in round one. Neither team arrives with any form, so that’s a real coin flip. I think you have to look at Harrison-King as having the best shot here to grab the quarterfinal spot.
In the bottom half of the quarter, Cabral-Salisbury take on Cerundolo-Etcheverry in round one. Is this the week that this new partnership gets their first win? I don’t think it will be easy with Cerundolo-Etcheverry pulling out some unexpected results on clay at times. The seeds really need this one and perhaps will be motivated by a shot to see Nys/Roger-Vasselin for a third straight week if that pair defeats Gonzalez-Molteni in round one. This looks like a fun part of the draw where about anyone could get through, although I suspect it’s coming down to Cabral-Salisbury/Nys-ERV, Volume 3.
I think this second quarter has some depth to it with some intriguing unseeded pairs, so I do think there could be an unseeded quarter finalist in this section. I tend to think the half with Cabral-Salisbury is more open to that with the seeds still working to establish themselves and grab their first win.
TOP HALF FORECAST
Granollers-Zeballos fell short of a semifinal for the first time this year in Monte Carlo their last time out. Their quarter isn’t guaranteed to help them produce another semifinal run, but I do like their odds still. I think Bolelli-Vavassori may need a week or two to get themselves back into a proper mindset, which is understandable, plus they themselves have a difficult early draw. Bhambri-Venus would be the unseeded menaces to watch out for in that quarter. I think the second quarter could be a free-for-all with Harrison-Skupski still a bit inconsistent from week-to-week and Cabral-Salisbury just trying to ge a win, nevermind a title run. I do like the Harrison-Skupski side better if a seed comes through and I’m sticking with a surge for Nys/Roger-Vasselin potentially in that bottom half. One of these weeks they’re going to really make a mark.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter’s bottom half carries a suddenly struggling (3)Heliovaara-Patten. They’ve lost two of three on clay coming into Madrid where they made the quarterfinals in 2025. Their opener is Tabilo-Tien, a pair of singles players with just a handful of doubles matches between them this year. Failure to get out of round one would be a massive shock for the three seeds. Round two could yield a date with 250 Kings Arribage-Olivetti. They do need to get past a pair of veteran Spaniards in Carreno Busta and Cervantes first and who knows how they’ll fare on home soil. Arribage-Olivetti are 22-9 this year, but they’ve struggle to find consistent wins at these bigger tournaments. They come in off a finals appearance in Munich and have played six consecutive matches that ended in a super tie break. They could keep a clash close with Heliovaara-Patten, but the feeling is they likely will fall short.
The top half of the quarter sees (5)Arevalo-Pavic seeking out a second straight final in Madrid. I said it earlier … they need to be alert in round one against Paul-Quinn. The Americans in these altitude-driven conditions can compete for an upset if they serve well. The winner likely sees Luz-Matos in round two with the Brazilians set to battle Bublik-Polmans to open. Bublik-Polmans paired once five years ago. Bublik comes in with losses in eight of his last nine doubles matches dating back to the start of 2025. If they take out Luz-Matos, it’ll be unexpected. Watch for my Brazilian duo to have a realistic shot to KO Arevalo-Pavic. They have been excellent on clay, but have been missing a signature win over a name team this year during their rise in the rankings. Could this be that spot?
Both seeds in this quarter will need to navigate some capable teams with both Luz-Matos and Arribage-Olivetti standing out as dark horses. I touched on Arribage-Olivetti’s relative lack of success at events above 250s though, so they’re a bit of a longer shot to me. Luz-Matos would be the ones I look at IF there’s a surprise in this quarter.
To the final quarter where (2)Cash-Glasspool will look to ride the momentum of their Barcelona win into Madrid. The battle with Doumbia-Reboul in round one could well set the tone for this quarter. If the Brits survive, then it could be game on for another big run. I do think Krajicek-Mektic will have something to say about that though in round two as I believe that would be the likeliest match-up. On the other side, (6)Krawietz-Puetz couldn’t follow up on their Monte Carlo championship as they were knocked out in their opener in Barcelona by Bhambri-Venus. The Germans have gotten progressively better results in Madrid by the year with last year’s semifinal finish as their best. They have Griekspoor-Nakashima to open with the two singles players teaming up for the first time. Both have had some mild success at times in doubles, but this is a big ask. I look for the Germans to advance in straights.
They will face either another all-singles duo in Moutet-Rinderknech, who pair for the firs time, or Johnson-Zielinski. The doubles specialists (Johnson-Zielinksi) have been disappointing since their surprise Australian Open semifinal. They had lost three straight openers until Munich last week, so there’s no telling how they’ll do in this situation. It might be an interesting shot at trying the underdogs. This section seems to set up well for Krawietz-Puetz to push into the quarterfinals. That could make for an interesting rematch of their Monte Carlo quarterfinal if seeds hold with the Germans having beaten the Brits in Monte Carlo during their title run.
I feel a bit better about Krawietz-Puetz’s chances if a seed makes it through. Cash-Glasspool have a tough draw and I feel like they’re going to have a tough time getting deep in Madrid. Something is telling me to watch for Krajicek-Mektic this week.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
Cash-Glasspool have the form upon arrival in Madrid, but they also might have the toughest draw in rounds one and two among the seeds. As such, I’m not looking at them as contenders this week. I have a similar vibe about Arevalo-Pavic. For me, the seeds to watch are Krawietz-Puetz and the unseeded menaces for me include Krajicek-Mektic, Luz-Matos and Arribage-Olivetti. Madrid is often the place where the unexpected comes through – 2025 be damned!
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Heliovaara-Patten vs (6)Krawietz-Puetz
A lot could change in the doubles race this week depending on the results in Madrid. I outlined earlier how close the majority of the top eight are after the top two spots. That means opportunity awaits for one of these pairs to either move on up or in the case of Harrison-Skupski, put more distance between themselves and the field. While I do think there are a handful of unseeded pairs that could be surprise winners at the end of the tournament, I do feel like a seed is going to grab the reigns again this year. Could it be history for the Spaniards with the repeat and a third Madrid title? Don’t forget, they’re still without a title in 2026. Maybe this is the spot. My other seeded choice is Krawietz-Puetz and my longshot, Krajicek-Mektic. Enjoy the altitude!
Granollers-Zeballos
Krawietz-Puetz
Krajicek-Mektic
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