MADRID NEWS & NOTES
*Madrid was the scene of a stunning run from Cirstea-Kalinskaya in 2025 as the pair won the titles in their first tournament together. Cirstea-Kalinskaya were big underdogs in the final at 2.91 (+191) as they took down Kudermetova-Mertens 6-7(10), 6-2, 12-10. The win marked the fourth straight year that the underdogs took home the hardware in the championship match.
*The super tie break finish was the first in a Madrid final since 2018. As for the tournament as a whole, the championship match capped a 13 match run of super tie break finishes in Madrid last year out of the 31 completed matches. Eight of the STBs in 2025 came in the opening round. There have been at least ten super tie break matches per run in Madrid since 2017. Two of the last three years have seen eight STBs in round one and five of the last six runs have seen at least three STBs in round two. Those appear to be the most consistent rounds to hunt these down.
*Last year it was two unseeded pairs in the final and there have now been two unseeded champions in the last three years. There has been at least one unseeded semifinalist in Madrid in each of the last six runs dating back to 2019. I will focus on the UNSEEDED MENACES down below in just a minute to see who may add their names to that list in 2026.4.22’
*The underdog win for Cirstea-Kalinskaya in the championship match last year was the cherry on top of the u-dog sundae as dogs accounted for ten wins in 2025. The big score came in the semis when Cirstea-Kalinskaya KO’ed (3)Hsieh-Ostapenko as 3.51 (+251) underdogs. That was their second win at 3.00 (+200) or more in the tournament. Half of the dog wins came in round one. The total was up one from 2024 (9) and two from 2023 (8). Check out round one again this year with the last three years seeing at least five underdog wins in the opening round.
*The defending champs are back in the draw, but their quest for the first repeat in Madrid history could be gone in a flash as they open against (3)Mertens-Zhang. There are some interesting partner swaps this week that will bear watching, starting with (4)Ostapenko-Routliffe and (7)Hsieh-Kenin for the first time. With Routliffe re-partnering, that means Asia Muhammad is also in with a different partner after those two struggled to start 2026 at 5-8. Muhammad pairs with Danilina, while her regular partner, Krunic, is going with Mladenovic in Madrid. That’s a lot of switching! Oh yeah, let’s not forget the return of the Russian power duo Andreeva-Shnaider who last paired at the 2025 WTA Finals.
With a lot of partner swaps in Madrid, there are going to be some intriguing unseeded pairs to monitor. Who could make a deep run? Here’s a few to watch.
Jovic-Mboko
This is an interesting pair, especially in the altitude in Madrid that could play to their ball striking. Don’t forget they nearly derailed Mertens-Zhang run to the Australian Open in the second round when they fell in a third set tie break (12-10). They have a tough draw with Siegemund-Zvonareva first and perhaps top seeds Errani-Paolini if they advance, but this duo could be a tricky out and a true surprise.
Cirstea-Kalinskaya
The defending champs are unseeded again and up against a pair in round one that whooped them in Australia 6-4, 6-2 in Mertens-Zhang. Still, they took Madrid by storm in 2025 with wins over Dabrowski-Routliffe (R1), Hsieh-Ostapenko (SF) and Kudermetova-Mertens (F). When they are locked in, they’re as dangerous as anyone.
Andreeva-Shnaider
It’s been a minute since we’ve seen them, but this surface in Madrid plays well for their singles-oriented power strokes. Can they find their rhythm though after not pairing for almost five months? If they do, they become a threat to the Mertens-Zhang/Cirstea-Kalinskaya survivor and are ones to watch.
Krunic-Mladenovic
This is one of those fascinating one-offs with Mladenovic coming in hot off a title run in Oeiras with Erjavec on clay. The height disparity is close to the norm for Krunic with Danilina at 5’10” and Mladenovic at 6’0”. Chemistry will be the question, but this has been a great surface for both through the years. Serving may be the key to whether they do much in Madrid.
Gauff-Montgomery
The Americans pair for the second time, with the first coming last year during their Madrid quarterfinal run. That included wins over Dolehide-Krawczyk and Perez-Hunter, so the skills are there. They make for an interesting pair to see, especially being in the quarter with (2)Siniakova-Townsend.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
In four of the last five runs in Madrid, at least three seeds have gone down in their opening match. That includes a top two seed in that same span, so let’s take a look at the seeds who could have a tough time grabbing an opening win.
(3)Mertens-Zhang
The three seeds got back on track finally in Miami with a semifinal run, but this will be their first time on clay together in all the years they’ve paired together. Getting the defending champs (Cirstea-Kalinskaya) in round one may be as difficult for them as it will be for the defending champs, despite the lopsided result from Australia when these two first met.
(5)Danilina-Muhammad
This first time pairing goes against an in-form duo on clay in Eikeri-Gleason in round one. They come in off a semifinal showing in Stuttgart a week after a semifinal run in Linz. This could be the perfect pair to take advantage of a new pairing trying to find their rhythm early.
(7)Hsieh-Kenin
Having your first match against a veteran duo like Mihalikova-Nicholls may not be the way you’d craft your debut, but here we are. MIhalikova-Nichols are always tough to trust, but they did get better on clay last year with a third round showing at the French Open as the highlight. If Hsieh and Kenin struggle to find chemistry, this could be a quick ending.
(8)Perez-Schuurs
It’s often a tough ask to beat the same pair two weeks straight and that’s what Perez-Schuurs are tasked with this week when they square off against Panova-Yang. The seeds won a tight one 7-6, 6-4 in the Stuttgart quarterfinals last week when they first met. Could meeting number two even the score? I’m expecting another tight fight and the dogs may have a chance to gain some revenge in Madrid.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
Quarter one is led by (1)Errani-Paolini who have a spotty track record in Madrid at 1-2 overall. The Italians three career matches here included a pair of super tie breaks in 2025. They did find their best during the Sunshine Double with a semifinal in Indian Wells followed with a run to the Miami final. This is not an easy quarter with Siegemund-Zvonareva, Jovic-Mboko, and (6)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez all in the way of a semifinal. The first big test may be round two with the survivor of that Siegemund-Zvonareva versus Jovic-Mboko showdown on tap. I would not be surprised if the top seeds fell short of a quarterfinal.
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez have the nicer draw, but this is their first time pairing on clay. Still, with Madrid usually playing faster due to the altitude, this could be a surface that works to their favor. One thing to always watch with them is super tie breaks as the sixth seeds have played seven matches with STBs out of 13 so far in 2026. They do own a win over Siegemund-Zvonareva this year and took Errani-Paolini to a super tie break in a quarterfinal loss in Doha. They should have a real shot to be in the semifinal mix.
The second quarter is led by (3)Mertens-Zhang and (8)Perez-Schuurs. Staring with Mertens-Zhang, it will be interesting to see how things go in their second clash with Cirstea-Kalinskaya in 2026. Perhaps being the opening match of the season caught Cirstea-Kalinskaya off guard, but there’s also the fact that this will be only the second match for the 2025 Madrid champs together in 2026. That could be problematic for finding a rhythm against a team the quality of the three seeds. The survivor may well see the Andreeva-Shnaider reunion tour in round two and that figures to be a challenge as well in these conditions. There could be some upheavel in this section.
In the bottom half with Perez-Schuurs, getting by Panova-Yang in round one could be a challenge. The two pairs met last week in Stuttgart with Perez-Schuurs surviving and riding that win to a semifinal finish. The winners are likely to be favored in round two no matter who they face with Kozyreva-Skoch an interesting pair to see. This is their first time teamin up, but both have been lethal in doubles on clay this year. Skoch has made three finals, winning in Rouen last week. Kozyreva has a pair of titles on clay this year, so they could be a bit of a dark horse in this half.
TOP HALF FORECAST
There is no sure thing in this top half among the seeds with Errani-Paolini and Mertens-Zhang both having challenging draws early. That could leave the door open for a pair like Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez if a seed works through to the final. You also have to really look at the unseeded pairs though with plenty who could get the job done. Jovic-Mboko are one of the more fascinating ones for me, but perhaps the reunion of Andreeva-Shnaider provides a massive spark for them in Madrid? Maybe I am over thinking this one, but I see this half as a fairly difficult one to call. I do tend to think that Mertens-Zhang may take advantage of Cirstea-Kalinskaya again, but that’s not a sure thing.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Jovic-Mboko vs Andreeva-Shnaider
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter has two of the new seeded pairings for the week with (4)Ostapenko-Routliffe and (7)Hsieh-Kenin. Ostapenko finally found the right fit last week with her one-off pairings with Zhang as they made the final in Stuttgart. Will Routliffe fill that role this week? I think the match-up against Bouzkova-Noskova gives them a good shot to get their footing for a win. They could wind up facing another one-off this week in Krunic-Mladenovic if they get out of round one against Rakhimova-Siskova. Those two did make round three at the French Open last year, so they might be a tough out.
In the other half, Hsieh-Kenin do have a veteran pair in Mihalikova-Nicholls to open. That’s a test right away, so this part of the draw could be blown up early. The survivor could be on the path to at least a quarterfinal with some inexperience in front of them. Jiang-Xu battle Boulter-Wiliams opposite of that match. Jiang-Xu have just a handful of matches together and only one, a loss, one clay. Boulter and Venus Williams pair for the first time and Venus is still seeking her first doubles win in 2026 (0-4). Who do you trust to get the job done in this half and make a quarterfinal? Roulette might best describe the chances here. This quarter looks wide open, but I tend to think Ostapenko-Routliffe would be the better shot of the seeds with a nod to Krunic-Mladenovic as the unseeded menace to keep an eye on.
The final quarter houses (2)Siniakova-Townsend who will make Madrid just their third career clay court tournament together. The other two, Rome in 2024 and the French Open in 2025, both ended in the quarterfinals. You can’t ask for more coming to Spain with this duo having completed a rare doubles Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami. They are 12-1 on the season with just two sets dropped. They get Kichenok-Krawczk to start and that will provide them a good sense of where they’are at on this surface as that pair has proven capable at times in 2026. I don’t think the two seeds could have asked for a better half, so anything less than a quarterfinal would be a shock.
The other half of the quarter has more questions. (5)Danilina-Muhammad team up for the first time and will face obstacle in round one against Eikeri-Gleason. The unseeded pair in that match come off back-to-back semifinals on clay, so they are dangerous. In the other opener, all eyes will be on wild cards Gauff-Montgomery who made the last eight here a year ago. Khromacheva-Olmos are the opposition with three matches under their belt, all on clay, with two of them going to super tie breaks. I still like the Americans to get through and they really look like they could emerge as quarter-finalists again. That may set up a mouth watering clash with Siniakova-Townsend for a spot in the semifinals.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
Do you dare go against Siniakova-Townsend even with the surface switch? Not I. Gauff-Montgomery may well end up being their toughest foes along the way unless Danilina-Muhammad just click and get the job done. That’s always possible, but difficult to predict as always. I do think this half could be where we see an unseeded pair get into the final four. I’m looking at Krunic-Mladenovic as a possibility and absolute guess of course with this being their first tournament together. Gauff-Montgomery is the other pair I like among the unseeded field, but it’s a tough ask to get past Siniakova-Townsend.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (4)Ostapenko-Routliffe vs (2)Siniakova-Townsend
There have been plenty of surprises in Madrid over the years as this site plays so different than most other clay court tournaments. So, I would definitely lean towards some unseeded pairs making deep runs that are classified as unexpected. I’d be more on board with the reunion of Andreeva-Shnaider being part of that, but I do wonder how they’ll manage singles and doubles together, especially with Andreeva having been very selective in her doubles play this year. Still, I do think they can make a deep run. I just don’t know that they could take it to the end for the titles. I may miss by several miles, but Jovic-Mboko are my super deep sleeper to watch. I do think the end game is going to be one of the power teams taking the titles. I think Siniakova-Townsend’s form and draw put them in the top spot for sure. Although I did not pick them to go far, Mertens-Zhang would not be a surprising finalist here either.
Siniakova-Townsend
Andreeva-Shnaider
Jovic-Mboko
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