MONTE-CARLO NEWS & NOTES
*Last year in Monte-Carlo was the scene of one of the great surprises in doubles in 2026 when Arneodo-Guinard, as an unseeded pair, took home the titles. They defeated (7)Cash-Glasspool in the final 1-6, 7-6(8), 10-8 as 2.93 (+193) underdogs. They were the first dogs to win the championship in Monte-Carlo since 2022 when Ram-Salisbury were slight u-dogs at 2.12 (+112).
*Arneodo-Guinard’s title run in 2025 was the second straight for an unseeded pair in Monte-Carlo and the third straight season that an unseeded pair was involved in the final. Half of last year’s quarterfinal field was unseeded, but only Andreozzi-Guinard survived into the semifinals. 2024 was a bigger party for the unseeded duos with six making the quarters and three making the semifinals. At least one unseeded pair has made the semifinals in 14 straight runs of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
*The super tie break finish last year in the final was the sixth straight Monte-Carlo final that needed the extra frame to settle. 2025 saw 14 matches with super tie break finishes out of 25 completed matches. Nine of those came in rounds one and two combined. 2024 was much lighter on STBs with only six total. That was the only one of the last seven runs in Monte-Carlo that did not feature double digit super tie break matches. Rounds one and two seem to be the most consistent producers of STBs during that span.
*Arneodo-Guinard’s underdog win in the title match last year was the icing on the underdog cake so-to-speak with 13 of 25 matches going the way of the dog. The largest score came in round one courtesy of the champs at 4.21 (+321) when they knocked off (5)Granolllers-Zeballos. Six of the dog scores came in round one and both semifinals joined the final in producing more u-dog happiness. 2024 nearly matched 2025 with a dozen underdog wins. Both semifinals again went to the dogs. Five of the last six runs in Monte-Carlo have produced at least one underdog winner in the semifinals, so keep your eyes peeled late in the tournament. The last three years have produced a semifinal u-dog barking at 3.00 (+200) or greater.
*The focus of 2026 may well be looking at the top of the current ATP live rankings where this week may see plenty of swapping. Harrison-Skupski are clinging to the top spot with 2,540 points. Heliovaara-Patten have been steadily eating up the deficit that started after Harrison-Skupski won the Australian Open. They are now just 510 points back in second. Bolelli-Vavassori are in third, just 80 points back of Heliovaara-Patten. The Italians won’t make up ground this week as Bolelli is again away from Vavassori this week due to the passing of his father. Vavassori pairs with Matteo Berrettini for the week. Granollers-Zeballos remain close to the top three at 1,740 points and have nothing but points to earn after last year’s opening match exit. I think we will see some movement near the top this week and it should be fun to follow.
With the success of unseeded pairs over the years here, it pays to check out the unseeded field to try and spy potential surprise contenders.
Doumbia-Reboul/Erler-Miedler
I talked up these two earlier and look for the survivor of their first round clash to have some dark horse potential. They’re in the Cash-Glasspool quarter with the Brits not looking like world beaters at the moment and Krawietz-Puetz as the other seeds, but having not paired together for a few weeks.
Nys/Roger-Vasselin
Even though there’s not much to suggest they’re close to turning their season around, they did look like they were on the right path just a couple of weeks ago in Miami when they made the quarterfinals. I still think they’re too good to continue to mire in the slump that has mostly been 2026 for them. They were solid on clay at 8-3 last year when playing this stretch Marrakech, Monte-Carlo, Paris.
Bhambri-Venus
If there’s one thing this pair is, it’s competitive. Since Venus returned from injury, they’ve played four matches and three of them have gone the distance. Eleven of their 16 matches since they paired last year have gone the distance. They come in off a nice semifinal run in Bucharest, so they look like they’ll be problematic, even in a very tough part of the draw.
Berrettini-Vavassori
Don’t sleep on Vavassori sans Bolelli. He already proved in Indian Wells with Erler that he’s adaptable. He does have some experience with Berrettini from back in 2021 where the two made the semis on clay in Belgrade. Berrettini doesn’t play much doubles, but he’s made a habit of being a tough out when he does.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Seeded pairs have had plenty of difficulty escaping their openers in Monte-Carlo in recent times. As you can see below, multiple seeds have lost their openers each of the last five seasons:
So who could be in danger of following suit this year? Let’s take a look.
(2)Cash-Glasspool
The Brits made the final a year ago, but have really struggled for consistency in 2026. They have two finals to their credit, but are 4-5 in the other five tournaments they’ve played combined. They do have two opening losses on their resume this year, so it’s not out of the question they could be upset victims early. Facing Doumbia-Reboul or Erler-Miedler won’t help matters. Doumbia-Reboul come in hot after making the Bucharest final while Erler-Miedler’s best surface traditionally is clay.
(4)Harrison-Skupski
While the Australian Open champs have found their footing after some struggles in the post-Australian landscape, this will be their first time on clay together. With a bye, there is some chance that whomever they face could have an early edge. That’s going to be Lehecka-Mensik or Khachanov-Rublev. Both singles pairs have proven capable. The Russian pair have never been past round two here, but nearly took out Koolhoff-Skupski back in 2023 in that round (14-12 STB). We saw some of Lehecka’s danger in Indian Wells when he teamed with Arends to knock out Cash-Glasspool in round one.
(6)Krawietz-Puetz
The Germans are back together for the first time since losing in round two at Indian Wells. They have been consistent performers here with two quarterfinals and a semifinal in three trips, but face Marrakech champs Cash-Tracy to start. The Americans had lost four of their last five before making the title run this past week on clay in Marrakech. This will be a step up in level for Cash-Tracy, so this one will be interesting to see with the Germans trying to get on track again.
(7)Cabral-Salisbury
This is a rough draw for the debut of this pair with Joe Salisbury returning after taking five months away from the game to address some anxiety issues. Teaming with Cabral, they could find some success on clay where Salisbury made the French Open final last year with Neal Skupski. Getting Nys/Roger-Vasselin in your first match together could be tough even with that pair still scuffling in 2026. I’m expecting a competitive battle though that could go either way.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
Quarter one leads with top seeds Granollers-Zeballos. They have shown excellent consistency in 2026 with three semifinals and a final in the four tournaments played. It will be interesting to see how they fare in Monte-Carlo with opening losses in two of their last three trips. That said, all of that came before they got the monkey off their backs last Summer by winning the French Open. Off the bye, they’ll see either Melo-Zverev or Johnson-Zielinksi. Melo-Zverev have shown a more competitive streak when teaming up this year than we saw in 2025, so they can be dangerous. Don’t forget they made the final here just two years ago. Johnson-Zielinski continue to stumble since their surprise semifinal run at the Australian Open. They’ve now lost their opener in five of their last six tournaments. I’d look for Melo-Zverev to get through and make for an interesting second round tussle versus the top seeds.
The other half of this quarter sees last year’s champions (8)Andreozzi-Guinard as the seeds. The #8 seeds are coming off a “down” after losing their Miami opener, which followed their stunning Indian Wells title run. The seeds square off with the Tsitsipas brothers in round one. This is not the usual configuration of the Tsitsi-bros though with the youngest Pavlos partnering up with Stef this week. It will mark their debut as a pair. Pavlos’ other doubles action this year came with Petros. Then it’s Bergs-Sinner or Machac-Ruud. Both are first-time singles pairs and both certainly fall into that category where a withdrawal can happen just about any round due to their singles duties. I’m a Machac guy, so they’d be my pick as the more dangerous duo. I still think Andreozzi-Guinard can get through this section to at least a quarterfinal.
To the second quarter where it’s (4)Harrison-Skupski and (5)Arevalo-Pavic as the seeds. In the Harrison-Skupski half, they wait for Lehecka-Mensik or Khachanov-Rublev. Being their first time on clay together, there will be some questions to answer. I do think they have a better shot to avoid a loss on this surface against these singles pairs, but the match could still be tight. Khachanov-Rublev have the experience, but are hard to figure out on a tournament-by-tournament basis. Being Mensik’s first doubles match in 2026, the Czechs may have a tougher time getting the win.
To the bottom half where Arevalo-Pavic have made the semifinals at this tournament two straight years. Clay perhaps is what they need to truly unlock their best. The 2024 French Open champs are 33-8 on dirt over the last two seasons. This has traditionally been their first clay court tournament of the season, so I’d expect them to be ready to roll. Some may view Rinderknech-Vacherot as trouble in round one, but don’t forget their remarkable Indian Wells’ finals trip was done against three singles pairs and no seeded pairs. This will be the toughest team they’ve faced this year.
The match opposite of theirs is intriguing with Bhambri-Venus battling Cerundolo-Etcheverry. Cerundolo-Etcheverry on any other surface than clay is a big pass (0-18), but they have been competitive on clay at 8-7. This might be a low-key banger alert in round one. I do think the survivor of this one will provide a stern test for Arevalo-Pavic. This quarter still looks more likely to produce a super showdown with Harrison-Skupski and Arevalo-Pavic, but I do believe there will be some tough and tight matches before that could potentially happen.
TOP HALF FORECAST
I think this half is much harder to seek out and find an unseeded pair that looks like they could get even as far as a semifinal. You have a strong top seed in Granollers-Zeballos and then Grand Slam champions in Harrison-Skupski and Arevalo-Pavic. The pair I’m really looking at here are Arevalo-Pavic. Quite simply, this has been their best surface since they first formed in 2024. If they’re going to find a second final in 2026, this could be the time. I won’t erase Andreozzi-Guinard from being contenders on this surface, but they have been wildly inconsistent from week to week.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs (5)Arevalo-Pavic
BOTTOM HALF
Might the third quarter be the first site of a surprise in MC? It would be saying something with perhaps the best pair somehow not ranked #1 in Heliovaara-Patten leading the charge. The three seeds have a decent set up in their half to get things going. At 17-2 this year, there’s not much that needs to “get going” for these two. Five tournaments played. Four finals. Is that good? You betcha. They’ll wait for either de Minaur-Norrie or Berrettini-Vavassori in round two. Heliovaara-Patten have only dropped one set in their five openers this season, so even losing a set would be progress for the “field” against them. I still like the Italian wild cards to be the pair to get a shot at the three seeds. I’m still not picking against Heliovaara-Patten early in a tournament.
The other half of this quarter is where that surprise might reside. I talked a little earlier about (7)Cabral-Salisbury making their debut. You know Joe would love to get out with a win in his return, but this is a new pairing debuting at a Masters event. That’s not an easy ask, especially with Nys/Roger-Vasselin as your round one foe. They may be stuck in neutral so far this year, but I still get the feeling that the switch is going to get flipped soon. If it’s not clay, then well, maybe they’re just not going to be close to the level they flashed in 2025. The winner there advances to see either Gonzalez-Molteni or wild card entry Arneodo-Herbert. Gonzalez-Molteni have been consistent in their Monte-Carlo trips, win one, lose one for three straight years. If that lines up again, then it’s the Cabral-Salisbury vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin survivor that should be headed to the quarterfinals.
The fourth quarter also looks like it could be ripe for some upheaval with (2)Cash-Glasspool and a returning (6)Krawietz-Puetz as the seeds. Cash-Glasspool have not been the model of consistency we saw in 2025. That’s a hard thing to live up to considering they won 60 matches last year! Still, their play hasn’t been as clean from week-to-week and that means they’re more prone to upsets than they have been in the past. Doumbia-Reboul or Erler-Miedler will put that to the test in round two. Doumbia-Reboul found some flow in Bucharest and have traditionally done their best work on clay. See Rome last year when they beat Heliovaara-Patten and Krawietz-Puetz en route to the final before narrowly losing in a super tie break to Arevalo-Pavic in the final. Erler-Miedler also do their best on clay and they won their last two against Doumbia-Reboul, both of which were on clay. The Austrians could be super sleepers.
Krawietz-Puetz COULD take advantage of any Cash-Glasspool struggles IF the Germans can get out of round one. This has been a good tournament for them and they should be keen on getting their season going after a mediocre start. Cash-Tracy will provide a good exam of where they’re at after the Americans won the titles in Marrakech. That said, this is definitely a step up for them on a surface where they’d done most of their damage at Challengers before this past week. The winners see Cobolli-Darderi or Goransson-King. Goransson-King carries some attraction for me with both as solid doubles guys seemingly searching for their best and perhaps for their best fit in partners. King started 2026 with John Peers, but that duo has struggled at 4-7. Goransson had been teamed up with Bhambri, but that looks dissolved with the Bhambri-Venus reunion.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
You have to be a glutton for being wrong if you want to pick against Heliovaara-Patten at least making the semifinals. Sure we are switching surfaces, but their consistency this season has been remarkable. Now if Cabral-Salisbury have an immediate impact, then perhaps all bets are off with that being a new pairing that the three seeds have yet to face. I’d still err on the side of form and go with Heliovaara-Patten who were consistent during the Euro clay swing last year with either quarterfinal or semifinal finishes in all five tournaments they played.
So if the unseeded run of semifinalists continues, then it has to be quarter four, right? Don’t skip quarter three with Nys/Roger-Vasselin. That’s a gut feel, probably a dumb gut feel. Quarter four for me though definitely could produce an unseeded runner with Doumbia-Reboul, Erler-Miedler and maybe a total surprise like Goransson-King as ones to consider. Don’t underestimate how big this is for Heliovaara-Patten. Despite all their success, they haven’t made a clay court final since Lyon in 2024. This half I think has a bit more of an open feel to it than the top half, so don’t be surprised if there’s a true surprise coming through to the final.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Heliovaara-Patten vs Erler-Miedler
I think 2026 is the year that seeds take back Monte-Carlo. There are some intriguing unseeded pairs, but they don’t look as menacing as others in the past that have made title runs. On top of that, you’ve got a clear divide between the cream of the crop, Granollers-Zeballos and Heliovaara-Patten, and the field right now. I really expect that the big boys are coming for #1 this week and that may well include Arevalo-Pavic, who have held their best for clay so far in their time together. All due respect to Harrison-Skupski, they need to prove themselves week in, week out as more than one hit wonders. This is a great kickoff to the meat of the Euro clay court schedule and a shot for one of these pairs to fire a warning shot with Paris waiting over the horizon.
Arevalo-Pavic
Heliovaara-Patten
Erler-Miedler
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