MIAMI NEWS & NOTES
*Arevalo-Pavic completed the Sunshine Double in 2025 by taking the Miami final 7-6(3), 6-3 over Cash-Glasspool. They were 1.51 (-196) favorites in the championship match. Their win marked the 7th straight run of the Miami Open where the favorite won the finale. They were also the second straight #1 seed to take the men’s titles (Bopanna-Ebden).
*The straight sets finish was the 5th in the last six Miami Opens dating back to 2019. While the final went down in two sets, that didn’t deter our old friend “super tie break” from making plenty of appearances. Fourteen of the 30 matches in 2025 needed the extra frame to settle the score. That marked the third consecutive season that the Miami Open saw double digit STBs. Eight of last year’s super tie breaks came in round one with all three completed quarterfinals also going the distance. That marked the third straight season that three quarterfinals went to a super tie break.
*Underdogs did not make their presence felt all that much in 2025. Only six underdogs scored wins overall with the biggest hit at 3.01 (+201) in a round one upset of #8 seeds Salisbury-Skupski. Half of last year’s u-dog scores came in round one. The total was right on target with 2024 where six underdogs also got wins. Half of those again came in round one. 2023 had seven underdog wins, so it seems like the numbers are fairly consistent in recent times in Miami. Of those seven, three again came in round one.
*With underdogs not putting a big dent in the proceedings in Miami recently, does that mean seeds are destined for deep runs? The last two years say yes with all four semifinal pairs in 2024-2025 being seeded. 2024 ended a ten-year run of there being at least one unseeded pair in the semifinals with many of those featuring multiple unseeded pairs. It was as recent as 2022 and 2023 when an unseeded pair were crowned champions at this event. That means we will focus on a few unseeded menaces below who could spoil the party.
*The top seeded pairs may have won the last two years here, but prior to that, 2015 was the last time the #1 pair was even in the final. That year, the Bryans took home the titles, but that’s a wide gap without the top seeded pair going deep in Miami. This year that’s Granollers-Zeballos who come in off a solid semifinal showing in Indian Wells. They’ve had a checkered past in Miami though, alternating round one exits with semifinal runs since their first trip in 2021. By that logic, this is a semifinal year.
So if 2026 fluctuates back to seeing unseeded pairs grabbing spots in the final four, who are the pairs who look likeliest to be in that mix?
Cash-Tracy
You can label me nuts on this one since the Americans are in the Granollers-Zeballos quarter, but they’re a pair that has been competitive in two losses against them. They have taken a set both times. As far as current form, it’s iffy with a lot of super tie breaks in the mix. The Americans have lost eight of 13 matches with seven of those eight losses in matches involving a third set or super tie break. They will be due for some course correction on that stat sooner or later. Might this be the week?
Goransson-Michelsen
In case you forgot, the only time these two paired up, they made the final last Fall in Shanghai. That included wins over Cabral-Miedler, Schnaitter-Wallner and Arevalo-Pavic. They are big time boom or bust having to face (4)Heliovaara-Patten first up, but that is a tough spot for the seeds and an early win could ignite a big run for these guys again.
Frantzen-Haase
They grabbed a wildcard entry this week, so they don’t need that late alternate spot grab like they did in Indian Wells. They parlayed late entry there into a quarterfinal and remain one of those “almost always” danger duos when they get into a main draw. It’s a tough draw they have, but they are fully capable of being one of those surprise semifinal types if they bring their best.
Erler-Galloway
This is their swan song as “regular” partners with Erler set to switch off to his former long-time partner Miedler when the surface switches to clay. This duo has proven a tough combo in 2025 and 2026 with a 23-14 record. Their last action saw them make the final in Acapulco. It’s another boom or bust with Arevalo-Pavic as their opener, but that is a pair that looked flat in losing their Indian Wells opener, so the door looks open for some potential fireworks in round one.
Luz-Matos/Gonzalez-Molteni
These two meet in a BANGER in round one. The survivors could well be a big factor in the fourth quarter with Cash-Glasspool and Andreozzi-Guinard as seeds. Luz-Matos may be my preferred danger duo, but don’t forget Gonzalez-Molteni are two-time quarterfinalists in Miami. Gonzalez-Molteni nearly knocked out Arevalo-Pavic in the QFs last year, losing 10-8 in a super tie break. Whomever advances of these two is going to be a MENACE.
Bhambri-Venus
Could this be a feel good spot for last year’s surprise US Open semifinalists? Venus has been out of action since that loss due to elbow surgery, so there are plenty of “ifs” surrounding this one. Still, they have plenty of experience to draw one and were ube competitive at 7-5 in 2025 in limited action. Eight of those 12 matches went the distance, so they’re going to be a tough out. If Venus is healthy and finds his range early, they are as dangerous as anyone.
Nouza-Rikl
Speaking of pesky types, the Czechs fill that bill. A 7-6 record this year doesn’t tell the tale of how competitive these two have become on all surfaces. Their last two losses with to Arevalo-Pavic (7-6, 7-6) and Bolelli-Vavassori (6-7, 6-2, 10-8). They have Cash-Glasspool to open, but that is a pair they pushed to super tie breaks in two of the three losses they’ve suffered to the Brits. Another boom or bust type, but they could make things interesting from ball one.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
As you see in the graphic above, there have been multiple seeds ousted in the opening round in each of the last five years. It’s safe to say there could be more to join that group in 2026. Let’s take a look at the seeded pairs with the toughest matchups.
(2)Cash-Glasspool
I just touched on their opponents, Nouza-Rikl, in round one. The only one of the three clashes between these two that did not go the distance was last year when Cash-Glasspool were a buzzsaw on grass. The Brit combo has lost two openers out of six tournaments played in 2026, so they are not immune to an early loss with one of those coming in Indian Wells. Nouza-Rikl might be overdue for a win against these two or they could just be cursed against them. Miami will tell the tale either way.
(4)Heliovaara-Patten
They’re back after skipping Indian Wells after the travel nightmares in Dubai due to the conflict in the Middle East. They’ve made finals in three of four tournaments played, but have a tough opener on tap with Goransson-Michelsen up first. I talked up their success last year in Shanghai, so they certainly can be tough. It will be interesting to see if the unseeded pair has the same chemistry and whether time off did anything to stop the roll that Heliovaara-Patten were on.
(5)Arevalo-Pavic
After making the final in Dubai, it looked like things were finally on track for these two. Fast forward to Indian Wells and they get crushed in their opener 6-3, 6-2 by Djokovic-Tsitsipas. That was their first opening loss since February 2025. Erler-Galloway are on tap in round one and I would expect that to be a fight for the defending champs.
(6)Andreozzi-Guinard
I touted these guys as unseeded threats in Indian Wells and they delivered with a championship run. I also pointed out that they have been one of those roller coaster teams that can produce that kind of scintillating run one tournament and then go on to lose openers in their next three. If they find consistency, this pair is deserving of a spot in the live race top eight throughout the season. That’s the question though as they face off against Krajicek-Mektic in their opener. Krajicek-Mektic have lost three straight coming in after winning the titles in Delray Beach. I wouldn’t sleep on them having a shot to score the upset.
(8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
These two finally got some much needed wins at the Phoenix Challenger in between Indian Wells and Miami. They made the final, but were again walking the tight rope with three of four matches going to super tie breaks. Eight of ten matches this year have gone the distance, so they are always playing with fire. Getting Cash-Tracy in round one won’t do anything to extinguish that trend. They do own two wins against the Americans, but both went deep into STBs (10-8 in Phoenix, 10-7 last year in Tokyo).
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
I was not on board the (1)Granollers-Zeballos train last week, but they had a nice time in Indian Wells with the semifinal finish. In just three tournaments this year, it’s been semifinal, final, semifinal. So why go against them now? Cabral-Miedler are about to split up with Cabral set to pair up with a returning Joe Salisbury in Monte-Carlo. I had high hopes for them this season, but they’ve been mediocre after an initial burst. They did however beat Granollers-Zeballos last year in Paris (indoors), so anything can happen. I’ll stick with the top seeds to get it done. It’s either Johnson-Zielinski or Arribage-Olivetti in round one. That could be a bonafide banger in the opening round. Arribage-Olivetti still need to prove they can win consistently outdoors after banging home two titles indoors in February. Johnson-Zielinski broke a four match losing skid at the Phoenix Challenger by getting through to the semifinals. It is easy to forget that they made the semifinals at the Australian Open, but the super tie breaks started working against them in that losing skid. I’d still take them in this outdoor setting, but Arribage-Olivetti are still a solid team too.
In the other half of this first quarter, it’s (8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin as the seeds. You can almost count on their opener against Cash-Tracy involving a super tie break. Eight of ten matches have gone the distance for the seeds and Cash-Tracy have seen have gone the distance in eight of 13. The match opposite theirs sees Krawietz paired with Oberleitner this week. I don’t know if Krawietz’s regular partner, Tim Puetz, suffered an injury in Indian Wells or if this is just time off. Regardless, Oberleitner has doubles skills for days. He’s been burning it up at Challengers with Balaji, taking home three titles already. They get Americans Kittay-Seggerman who were surprise finalists in Delray Beach in their first tournament together. That makes this one fairly intriguing where you might like the pair with established chemistry. I think you can make a case for any of the four pairs in this half making that quarterfinal run. I think super tie breaks may be the most consistent thing in this section. I do think an unseeded pair is more likely to squeeze through and I’d focus on the two Americans pairs: Cash-Tracy and Kittay-Seggerman with a golden opportunity to earn some big points.
The second quarter houses (4)Heliovaara-Patten and defending champs (5)Arevalo-Pavic. Starting up top with Heliovaara-Patten, I touched on their opener earlier against Goransson-Michelsen. If that unseeded duo has any of the magic left over from their Shanghai finals’ run last year, that opener is going to be a fun one. The pair to advance should be the favorite to get to the quarters. The other match in this section pits Gonzalez-Pel against Darderi-Romboli. Gonzalez-Pel haven’t won consecutive matches yet in 2026 at 3-6. Darderi-Romboli do actually have doubles experience together even with Darderi known now more for singles. They last paired in 2024, losing 7-5 in the third set in round one against Ram-Salisbury. So you know they can ball, although clay may be where they’re best suited (look at 2022). They might be a sneaky underdog pick in the opening round.
To the Arevalo-Pavic half where the 2025 winners figure to be hassled by Erler-Galloway to start. If you look at all three pairs in this half, Arevalo-Pavic probably won’t be too thrilled with the prospects of any of the matchups. Doumbia-Reboul take on Frantzen-Haase in the other match. Doumbia-Reboul have lost four of five to Arevalo-Pavic, but have a habit of taking sets off the seeds. I already spoke about the danger of Frantzen-Haase and Erler-Galloway, so any potential matchup for Arevalo-Pavic figures to be tight. Recall that the defending champs played three super tie breaks here in Miami en route to winning last year and lost in round two in their previous trip in 2024. After the loss last week in Indian Wells, anything is possible this week. I would not be surprised at all to see one of the unseeded pairs sneak through. Frantzen-Haase would be my first choice with Erler-Galloway a close second.
TOP HALF FORECAST
The top two pairs as far as consistency here are (1)Granollers-Zeballos and (4)Heliovaara-Patten. There is A LOT to get in the path of a potential blockbuster semifinal however. And yes, that means I am probably going to rule out Arevalo-Pavic and Nys/Roger-Vasseling among my choices. I’d rather look to the unseeded field for a surprise rather than one of those two. Cash-Tracy, Goransson-Michelsen and Frantzen-Haase are probably the top three for me. I give Granollers-Zeballos a slightly better draw over Heliovaara-Patten, but Heliovaara-Patten are impossible to ignore with just the one loss in 14 matches in 2026. If it comes down to those two seeds, it will be interesting as Granollers-Zeballos’ two wins in the H2H came on clay, while Heliovaara-Patten won the lone hard court battle at the 2024 Tour Finals. On hard courts right now, it’s hard to go against Heliovaara-Patten.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs (4)Heliovaara-Patten
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter starts with 3rd seeded Harrison-Skupski. The Australian Open champs finally found some form again in Indian Wells with a quarterfinal run. Their two wins in the desert matched their win total post-Australia. The early set up looks nice for them with Aussies de Minaur-Hijikata in round one. Those two have some experience together, but have failed to win in two career matches. They may make the opener competitive, but I believe Harrison-Skupski advance. The match opposite theirs will see King-Peers taking on Melo-Zverev. King-Peers are one of the new 2026 pairings that hasn’t really found its footing. They are only 3-6 and have lost their opener three times in six tournaments. Melo-Zverev dropped their Indian Wells opener in a super tie break after winning their first four matches this year in taking the Acapulco titles. This one could go either way. I really think you have to like Harrison-Skupski’s chances of getting another quarterfinal this week.
In the top half of the quarter, (7)Bolelli-Vavassori also have an advantageous draw. They’ve been quietly steady with four semifinals or better out of the five tournaments they have played in 2026. They are 6-1 in super tie breaks or third sets, so they have exceled at winning the close ones thus far. They face first time pairing Arneodo-Ram. Two solid veteran doubles guys, but you have to like the chemistry of the Italians. Opposite of that match, it’s wild cards Damm-Demoliner versus Etcheverry-Tabilo. Etcheverry-Tabilo have shown some ability in limited play together. Damm and Demoliner are debuting as a pair and will be a real wild card to watch with Damm bringing the booming serve, but not as much doubles experience. Either way, it’s got to be the Italians moving on to the quarterfinals in this half.
We haven’t seen Harrison-Skupski versus Bolelli-Vavassori yet, so that would be one to look forward to if seeds hold.
The final quarter sees (2)Cash-Glasspool as the lead seeds and (6)Andreozzi-Guinard on the other side. Both have been a bit enigmatic with Andreozzi-Guinard on an obvious heater after winning Indian Wells. New week, new them though as they need to prove they have some consistency from week to week. The sixth seeds start against Krajicek-Mektic which should be a legit test. Krajicek-Mektic have stumbled of late, but they’re fully capable of putting it together again like they did in Delray Beach. Your eyes should be on the other match in this quadrant with Luz-Matos battling Gonzalez-Molteni. I firmly believe the survivor in that one has every chance to keep moving on to at least the quarterfinals.
Cash-Glasspool will earn everything they get in their half with a difficult draw. It’s Nouza-Rikl to open and then either Bhambri-Venus or Arends-Smith. I talked up Bhambri-Venus early on as a fascinating pair to watch this week. Venus appears healed up after injuring his elbow during their semifinal push at the US Open in 2025. If he’s right, then this pair is as dangerous as they come. With Arends-Smith pairing for the first time, I like Bhambri-Venus to find themselves again. It may take a super tie break to squeak it out. Cash-Glasspool have the fond memories of a 2025 finals run in Miami to fuel them, but they were much more consistent to me early on last year versus this year. They could prove me wrong, but I’m digging the unseeded vibes here. Nouza-Rikl are overdue for some big wins based on their play, so the Czechs might just be the pair to provide some excitement.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
I think there’s more of an open feel at least to the fourth quarter in terms of unseeded menace possibilities. I would be mildly surprised not to see one move through to the final four with Nouza-Rikl or that Luz-Matos/Gonzalez-Molteni survivor looking like a good possibility. If a seed gets into the last four, the third quarter looks much more likely to produce one. I like the set up slightly better for Bolell-Vavassori and their consistency has been a notch above Harrison-Skupski. The Italians have had much tougher draws their past two trips to Miami when they faced 2024 champs Bopanna-Ebden in round one and Harrison-King in round two last year. Not that they cannot be challenged early, but they shouldn’t be facing a pair with the same skills and form as either of those two.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (7)Bolelli-Vavassori vs Luz-Matos
The seeds have ruled the roost here the last two years and I think this year’s draw looks conducive to another seeded run to a title. Three of the most consistent pairs in 2026 figure to be involved in decide who: Heliovaara-Patten, Granollers-Zeballos and Bolelli-Vavassori. I’ll stick with the nearly unbeaten Heliovaara-Patten in that top half. When your lone loss was in two tie break sets, you’re tough to beat. I like the Italians, Bolelli-Vavassori, in the other half as my top choice. If there’s an unseeded floater that stuns, I am sticking to my guns and the Brazilians Luz-Matos. They could be out early certainly, but I like their toughness on all-courts. I still feel like they’ve got a hard court final waiting to load at some point this year. Should be a fun week with teams looking to narrow the gap to #1 and Harrison-Skupski.
Heliovaara-Patten
Bolelli-Vavassori
Luz-Matos
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