ROTTERDAM NEWS & NOTES
*Bolelli-Vavassori are in this year’s field as they seek a repeat bid after taking last year’s Rotterdam championship match 6-2, 4-6, 10-6 over unseeded pair Gille-Zielinksi. The Italians were solid favorites in the final at 1.56 (-178). Should Bolelli-Vavassori pull off back-to-back wins in Rotterdam, it would be the first time since Nestor-Zimonjic repeated in 2009-2010.
*The super tie break finish in the 2025 final marked the third time in the last four years that the STB was needed to settle the championship match. Overall and quite shockingly, there was only ONE other super tie break finish last year in Rotterdam. That was a steep dropoff from 2024 when nine matches required the extra frame to finish and there were six super tie break finishes in 2023. 2025 seems like an outlier, so if you’re seeking STBs, make sure to look to round one. Between 2021 and 2024, at least five of the eight first round matches have needed a super tie break to settle the score.
*2025 also marked the first time that all four seeds survived round one since 2018. Prior to last year’s run in Rotterdam, each year between 2019 and 2024 had seen multiple seeds go out in their openers. All of those upsets translate to unseeded pairs having a great run at making finals in Rotterdam in recent times. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the final every year since 2019 with three unseeded champions in that span. The last came in 2024 via Koolhof-Mektic. That year also was one of three all-unseeded finals in the last seven years.
*So how did underdogs fare in 2025? They accounted for one-third (5) of the wins in Rotterdam last year out of the 15 completed matches. Two came in round one and two more in the quarterfinals with the final dog bite coming in the semifinals via Gille-Zielinksi. That one also marked the largest hit at 2.74 (+174). The three dog hits in the quarters and semis all involved a seeded pair losing. The five dog wins last year matched the amount in 2024. 2023 was the best year for dog hunters in recent memory with eight matches seeing the u-dogs win.
*This year’s field is led by (1)Arevalo-Pavic. It will be their third year in a row playing this stop, but they’re still seeking a first trip to a final. That’s been an issue for this year’s top seeds. Despite really consistent runs deep into quarters and semis of most tournaments, they have not made a final since they won in Rome last May. Kraweitz-Puetz slide in as the #2 seeds. The Germans are back for the fourth time here with a semifinal in their first run in 2023 still standing as their best result. The seeded field is rounded out by Nys/Roger-Vasselin and the defending champions Bolelli-Vavassori. All four duos played in Rotterdam in 2025.
The history of this tournament screams out to check in on the unseeded field for pairs that could wind up being significant factors in deciding this year’s champion. Here are the ones that stand out as ones to watch.
Bhambri-Goransson/Kirkov-Stevens
The winner of this first round match is going to be a factor in the first quarter. Bhambri-Goransson have been steady in their limited play together dating back to last year. They scored scalps of both Heliovaara-Patten and Arevalo-Pavic in their play in 2025. Kirkov-Stevens continue to rack up Challenger finals with another one already this year on top of a couple of ATP finals last year, including one indoors in Stockholm. They can get after it. The winner may have to go through Arevalo-Pavic, but I don’t think that’s that far fetched with either of these two.
Gonzalez-Pel
Another highly competitive pair that could surprise. They are just 1-2 from the Aussie swing, but all three matches went the distance. Last year when they first started pairing more often, they made the quarterfinals in Shanghai and also scored an ATP final indoors in Athens. They have a pair of Dutch wild cards to start and may only need to go through a Nys/Roger-Vasselin, who are off to a slow start in 2026, to be within a win of making a final.
Gille-Verbeek
Sem Verbeek gets the home cooking in the Netherlands and this pair ripped it up indoors late in 2025. They won two Challenger titles and made the semifinals in Athens. They’ve only paired once this year, a super tie break loss in Auckland, so rust could be a little concern early. Still, this is exactly the type of pairing I would look at for dark horse picks. Both can bring it on serve and if they stay consistent, they’ll be in just about every match they play with chances to win.
Cabral-Miedler
This will be boom or bust for sure as they go up against singles pair Hurkacz-Khachanov in round one. That will certainly make for a tight match-up based on serve alone. Should they survive, watch out. They did work indoors in 2025 with an 11-3 record and a title in Athens, final in Vienna and semifinal at the Paris Masters. They tapered off after winning the titles in Brisbane to start 2026, but I still like this team a lot to do damage this season.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Last year still feels like a year where all seeds winning was definitely out of the ordinary. Will 2026 rebound with early upsets? Let’s take a look at the seeded pairs who could be in danger of going one and done in Rotterdam.
(2)Krawietz-Puetz
The Germans battle another German pairing in Schnaitter-Wallner to open. The seeds have only lost their opener once in three trips here, but Schnaitter-Wallner have been pretty solid indoors. They lost in the semis in Montpellier last week in a super tie break to eventualy champs Frantzen-Haase. They won two Challengers indoors in 2025 and also made the ATP final in Almaty plus the quarterfinals here in Rotterdam. Expect a tight match with Krawietz-Puetz still looking to round into form this season.
(3)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
Ho-Jebens get in via qualifying and take the spot opposite the seeds. This is the same pair that that knocked out Bolelli-Vavassori in round one of the Australian Open. They are 0-2 since, but lost in three sets to eventual finalists Johnson-Zielinski and then 7-6, 7-6 last week in Montpellier. They do have the reps and a couple wins here in Rotterdam though, so I am expecting a tough 1st round fight.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
The first quarter is led by top seeds Arevalo-Pavic. They battle Dutch singles pair Griekspoor-van De Zandschulp. That’s got the potential to be a close one, but the Dutch have not won any of the three previous years they’ve paired together for this “home” event. They did show some prowess early in the year by making round three at the Australian Open, but this is a tall task. Arevalo-Pavic also have not lost an opener since Dubai in 2025. That is almost a full year without going one and done at a tournament. Remarkable consistency. The other match in this quarter should be a banger with Bhambri-Goransson and Kirkov-Stevens fighting it out for a spot in the quarterfinals.
It will be interesting to see if Kirkov-Stevens can translate their past Challenger success on this surface into an ATP win. On the other side, Bhambri-Goransson have not played since Australia, while their opponents did play in Montpellier this past week. Do reps matter here? I wouldn’t be particularly worried with two vets. This could be set up for a super tie break as eight of Bhambri-Goransson’s career matches have gone the distance. Regardless of who survives, I am expecting that pair to have an opportunity to squeeze into a semifinal.
In the second quarter, (3)Nys/Roger-Vasselin are the seeds. It was not an ideal start to 2026 for this pair that just missed out on an ATP Finals spot in 2025. They went 1-2, including a first round crashout at the Australian Open. All three of their matches went the distance. They await a qualifier in round one that will be determined on Monday. I talked about it earlier with Ho-Jebens in as qualifiers that could be a real danger to the seeds in round one.
The match opposite that pits Gonzalez-Pel against Dutch wild cards De Jonge-De Lange. It’s a huge chance for the Dutch as neither has played above the Futures level in doubles, but that also makes it a longer long shot that they’d be able to take down Gonzalez-Pel in this spot. I still have Gonzalez-Pel as one of the unseeded menaces to monitor as this quarter really looks like it could pop off and produce a semi-surprise semifinalist in the end unless Nys/Roger-Vasselin can get themselves together quickly.
TOP HALF FORECAST
There is one timeline here where it’s seed versus seed in the semifinals, but I prefer looking at the other possibilities. I just don’t think with the slim margins at play in men’s doubles and some very competent unseeded pairs that both seeds are going to get through in this half. The one seeded pairs in Rotterdam have made back-to-back semifinals after a run of six straight seasons where they had failed to advance to the final four. I will go with Arevalo-Pavic to continue the trend they were part of last year, but I think I like Gonzalez-Pel to grab the other semifinal spot. If Ho-Jebens qualify on Monday, they’re definitely a pair that could surprise too.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Arevalo-Pavic vs Gonzalez-Pel
BOTTOM HALF
Bolelli-Vavassori kick off the third quarter with the Italians seeking the repeat and really just a blast off point for 2026 after the disappointing Australian Open early exit. Round one against Bublik-Royer is certainly winnable. Bublik has lost his last ten doubles matches which date back to a loss to the Italians in Beijng back in 2024. Royer rarely plays doubles, especially at this level, so anything outside of a straight sets win for the four seeds would be a bit of a shock.
The other match in the quarter has an unseeded team that looks lethal if they’re cooking and in rhythm in Gille-Verbeek. They go against Arends-Arneodo in the opening round. Arends-Arneodo got some needed confidence with a few wins at a Challenger to end January after losing all three matches they played in the Aussie Summer swing. Although I like GIlle-Verbeek, this match is going to likely be close and could well need a super tie break to find a winner. I still like Gille-Verbeek especially with what they did on this surface last year in limited action (9-2).
The final quarter could be another full of chaos. Krawietz-Puetz are the two seeds and they’re going to face a challenge early against Schnaitter-Wallner. The unseeded Germans continue to be a nuisance to most at this level, even if their success at ATP tournaments hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Challengers. We saw that in Australia where they took the eventual champions, Harrison-Skupski, to a third set in round one. They also come in with reps from indoors in Montpellier where they narrowly missed out on a final. Add in their 14-6 record on the surface in 2025 and you’ve got a recipe for a potential upset. Krawietz-Puetz at least got to shake out the bad taste of their early Aussie Open exit with a Davis Cup win, so that could help them momentum-wise heading into this one. That said, this stretch of the calendar hasn’t been great for them the past couple of seasons.
Who gets through the other half of this quarter also looks up-in-the-air with Cabral-Miedler banging heads with first time singles pair Hurkacz-Khachanov. Hubi hasn’t played much doubles the last couple of seasons, 2-4 since the start of 2024, but his last foray into dubs was 2025 at Rotterdam with Mensik. They narrowly lost to Bolelli-Vavassori 7-5, 7-6. I expect this combo with Hurkacz-Khachanov can provide something similar for Cabral-Miedler. I touched on Cabral-Miedler’s success indoors last season when they first paired (11-3), so the feeling for me is that they can survive this test. It would not be a real stunner though if the singles guys won with tie breaks turning the result one way or the other.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
For me, the seeds in this half are up against it as much if not more than the seeds in the top half. They will have to be sharp from ball one. I think Krawietz-Puetz have the tougher path, so they would be the bigger surprise to see in the last four. Bolelli-Vavassori’s biggest challenge could likely be a quarterfinal if it’s up against Gille-Verbeek. In all honesty the only pair in this half that looks like it wouldn’t have much of a chance over is Bublik-Royer. The rest? You could probably make a case for most of them having a legit shot to get to a final.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (4)Bolleli-Vavassori vs Cabral-Miedler
February is always a weird month on the calendar as we flip from the Australian Summer into the regular grind of the season. This tournament has produced some surprise finalists, but there hasn’t been a legitimate “surprise” winner here in a while. 2022 would rate that for me when Haase-Middelkoop won as an unseeded pair. Otherwise, the names on the trophy are usually familiar in the end. It’s probably easy to write off Arevalo-Pavic given their lack of finals in the last nine months and the fact that the top seeded pair haven’t won Rotterdam since 2011! Among the seeds, I guess it is the defending champs I give the best shot. Still, even that is nothing close to a lock. I think we could be seeing an unseeded pair make the championship run again this year. For me, I look at Cabral-Miedler, Gonzalez-Pel and I think a pair like Gille-Verbeek could have realistic chance. It should be a fun week!
Cabral-Miedler
Gonzalez-Pel
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