ABU DHABI NEWS & NOTES
*Last year’s tournament was won by top seeds Ostapenko-Perez, who were teaming up for the first time. The rolled to the titles, winning all four matches in straight sets. That included a 6-2, 6-1 drubbing of (4)Mladenovic-Zhang in the final. Ostapenko-Perez were slight 1.71 (-140) favorites in the championship match. In the four year history of this event, the favorite in the final has won each time.
*The 2025 final finished in straight sets, making it three out of four career runs in Abu Dhabi that have NOT needed a super tie break finish. Those came earlier last year with six matches ending in super tie breaks. Four came in round one and two more in the quarterfinals. That was up slightly from just four in 2024. The majority (3) again came in round one. The one trend present those last two years is that four of the seven STBs in round one play have involved a seeded pair.
*Speaking of seeded pairs, two of the four seeds in 2025 were opening round upset victims. Both resulted in underdog wins at 2.66 (+166) and 2.17 (+117). 2024 only saw one round one upset for the seeds and 2023 saw one as well. Both underdogs came in solidly at 2.82 (+182) and 2.46 (+146).
*Overall, underdogs took one-third of the matches last year in Abu Dhabi with five wins in 15 completed matches. Four of those came in round one with the biggest bite coming at 3.69 (+269). That was up just one from four underdog victories in 2024. In that run of this tournament, there were two dog wins in round one and two in the quarterfinals. 2.82 (+182) was the high mark in a quarterfinal where the top seeds lost.
*One thing this tournament has produced in its infancy is a fair amount of unseeded surprises that push into the semifinals and final. In the four year history of Abu Dhabi, there have been multiple unseeded semifinalists each run. Last year broke a streak of two straight seasons where the final had featured all-unseeded pairs. Ostapenko-Perez’s win as the top seeds in 2025 marked the first time in Abu Dhabi history that the #1 seeds had even made the final. Prior, the top seeded pair had only made it as far as the semifinals once in the previous three years of the tournament.
*The stories to follow this week for me are the continued development or at least reps that the new 2026 pairs will get. That’s led by (1)Muhammad-Routliffe who are 3-3 so far in 2026 with five of their six matches going the distance. (3)Perez-Schuurs are another fresh pair for the season looking to get back on a roll after going 4-2 in the Australian swing with a bit of a flat 6-2, 6-2 loss to Hozumi-Wu in round three lingering.
As previously mentioned, unseeded pairs have a traditiona of ruffling some feathers in Abu Dhabi. With every run in this tournament’s history producing multiple unseeded semifinalists, it pays to pay attention to the unseeded field. So who could surprise this year? Let’s look.
Krejcikova-Ostapenko
I’d be an idiot (bigger than usual) not to lead with this all-star pairing. We saw them pair sparingly in 2025 with a 5-2 combined record. That included two withdrawals in quarterfinals, so it’s possible they could have done even better. However, that is also a thing you have to consider with these two. How will any potential singles run effect their doubles chances? Pre-tournament, they’re in the Muhammad-Routliffe quarter, which means it’s probably going to be wide open as to who makes the semifinals. This pair has the ability if they stay healthy and in the draw. And Krejcikova already pulled out of singles, so ….
Kenin-Krawczyk
The best news for this American duo is they won’t see Danilina-Krunic in this tournament. That’s the team responsible for beating them the two previous times that they paired up. That included earlier this season in Brisbane. A date with (1) Muhammad-Routliffe early is boom or bust, but given the propensity of the top seeds going the distance in their matches, there’s a chance it could be BOOM. It’s a tough quarter they’re in, but they could do some damage if they grab that first win.
Kichenoks
When the Ukrainian sisters get together, they’re usually a threat. It may not always mean a deep run, but they’re normally a tough out and an early win away from making that big run. We already saw a nice result for them in Brisbane when they made the semifinals. Each of the past two seasons they have made a final together, so the potential is there. The problem for them is facing (2)Bucsa-Zhang first, but again it’s a boom or bust opportunity that could rattle the draw.
Aoyama-Zvonareva
It’s a first time team here, but there’s no doubting the ability of both in doubles. Zvonareva comes in off a red hot Aussie Summer where she paired with Shibahara to make the final in Canberra and a semifinal at the Australian Open. Aoyama played three tournaments during the Aussie swing with a solid loss in round two against Muhammad-Routliffe in three sets in Melbourne. She was paired with Linette in that one. She’s used to partner swapping with seven different partners in 2025. It’s all about whether the chemistry clicks.
Alexandrova-Joint
Don’t sleep on these two as a first time pairing. Joint broke out last year in her first year playing more doubles at the WTA main draw level. She made four finals and won two with Kalinskaya and Preston as her partners when trophies were won. Alexandrova hasn’t seen that level of success, but she did make a final in 2025 paired with Zhang in Stuttgart. If they wind up working well together, they’re the kind of combo that could blow up an entire quarter quickly and perhaps threaten for the titles.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
The brief history of this tournament suggests we should see at least one upset in round one involving a seed and certainly there could be more. Here is a look at the most difficult opening round match-ups for the seeds who could be headed out of Abu Dhabi early.
(1)Muhammad-Routliffe
I already touched on their propensity for roller coaster rides this season with five of their six matches going the distance. That always leaves them prone to a potential upset and with Kenin-Krawczyk on tap first, they belong on the list this week. The two Americans continue to draw harsh openers, but they’ve been competitive in their previous losses. I expect at least that in this one and certainly they could be due for a big win sooner rather than later.
(2)Bucsa-Zhang
Bucsa has proven to be a very adaptable player as she switched partners quite a bit from week to week in 2025. One of those weeks resulted in a title run with Zhang at Limoges. Two of the three matches did go to a super tie break though, so they definitely have to battle for their wins. Enter the Kichenoks as their first round foes and you’ve got a recipe for another super tie break perhaps and that always means the underdog has a shot to score the scalp.
(3)Perez-Schuurs
Let me preface this by saying I still believe this pair is going to be very successful in 2026, but they draw a possible toughie in Aoyama-Zvonareva to start. The seeds have avoided early trouble in their two tournaments together thus far, but this is likely the harshest opponent they will have faced in an opener. Aoyama-Zvonareva may need a little time to find their flow together, but I do think this will be a good fight with potential for the seeds to be toppled.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
The first quarter is LOADED and that’s probably bad news for (1)Muhammad-Routliffe, who are still looking to get on a roll. The top seeds have Kenin-Krawczyk to open. Should they survive that one, it’s either Krejcikova-Ostapenko or first timers Samsonova-Xu waiting. Most are going to expect this to wind up going to a Muhammad-Routliffe versus Krejcikova-Ostapenko clash. I’m not banking on that one to go down.
For me, the likeliest upset would be Kenin-Krawczyk grabbing a win. Muhammad-Routliffe are still trying to find their best rhythm and that’s resulted in their opponents always having a chance to win early in 2026. The X-factors could be Samsonova-Xu. They have never paired, but both are good on the doubles court. If they gel, they’ll be tricky. Still, have to go with Krejcikova-Ostapenko early to take the victory. The question for them will be if they stay in the draw with singles potentially stealing one or both of them away due to either fitness concerns or perhaps a deep run seeing them wanting to avoid double duty later in the tournament.
The second quarter is led by (3)Perez-Schuurs. This new combo for 2026 should have the edge early over Aoyama-Zvonareva. However, if they let that first time team stick around, it could be curtains late for the seeds in this one. No matter the outcome, the pair that survives the first rounder should be seen as the favorites to take the semifinal spot out of this quarter. The other match in this quarter pits Alexandrova-Joint against Kostovic-Yastremska. Neither of those pairs has any experience together.
Kostovic is the wild card with the 18-year-old short on doubles experience (3-3). This will be her first main draw WTA doubles match. Yastremska also doesn’t play a ton of doubles with a 2-5 mark last year and 0-1 this year. That should leave the more experienced Alexandrova and Joint as big favorites to advance. Both play a lot more doubles and Joint specifically saw a good amount of success last year with four finals that yielded two titles.
TOP HALF FORECAST
For me, it would be a mild surprise to see an all-seeded semifinal. This just feels like both seeded pairs are still searching for their best levels together and at least one could be taken down prior to the last four being set. Perez-Schuurs get the benefit of having several first time teams in their path, while top seeds Muhammad-Routliffe are up against it from the jump. I’d definitely be more apt to pick Perez-Schuurs to make the semis than I would Muhammad-Routliffe. Krejcikova-Ostapenko are going to be a hot topic and pick for many I would expect as an “outsider” to advance from the unseeded field. I actually look more to Kenin-Krawczyk or Alexandrova-Joint as ones who could stun.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Kenin-Krawczyk vs Alexandrova-Joint
BOTTOM HALF
Is this quarter an opportunity for (4)Mihalikova-Nicholls to find their best since late in 2025. Just 1-2 so far this year, this quarter doesn’t have an unseeded pair that screams out that they will be a huge threat. That said, the four seeds have not been the model of consistency over the last year. They only won consecutive matches at a tournament TWICE in 2025 after winning the titles in Berlin on grass late in June. It’s Jurak-Piter pairing for the first time to battle them in round one. Jurak will be playing for the first time since 2022. Piter certainly has proven very capable with a title run already this year in Hobart alongside Tjen. Last year, the Polish player won two titles. This feels like a big ask given Jurak’s lack of play the last few years.
The match opposite this one features Chan-Tauson squaring off against Khromacheva-Klepac. Chan-Tauson played well in Seoul last year in their last tournament together, making the semifinals with a win over Mihalikova-Nicholls in that mix. Klepac returned to action early this season after being idle since 2022, formerly with Jurak. Those two made the WTA Finals back in 2021. Her return saw an injury-shortened win in round one at the Australian Open before losing in round two. Khromacheva has had some good moments in doubles in the last year plus, but comes in riding a three match losing skid in 2026. All three of those losses came with Panova and were in super tie breaks.
Chan-Tauson have the recency bias here with some experience last year that was successful, but there is no telling how Khromacheva and Klepac will click or not click as a pair. Still, I’d rather side with a pair that has shown the ability to win AND beat the seeds in this section in the past. It will be interesting to see what former partners Jurak and Klepac have in the tank with their different partners this week.
The final quarter sees (2)Bucsa-Zhang leading the charge. I think their toughest match could be round one against the Kichenoks. Zhang will be rolling in fresh off winning her second career Grand Slam title in Melbourne, but with a new partner this week. That’s nothing new for the 37-year-old who has already had three partners and two title runs in 2026 (Adelaide/Melbourne). On the other side of the quarter, Mladenovic teams with Leylah Fernandez for the first time, while we get an intriguing duo in Eala-Tjen opposite of them.
I mentioned Tjen briefly early in this preview for her title run on Hobart with Piter. She’s been really, really good on the doubles court with 45 wins last year. Seven combined titles between the ITF and WTA levels in 2025. Eala still is focused mostly on singles, but she’s had some flashes in doubles as she gets more experience. The issue for Fernandez-Mladenovic will be finishing. Fernandez has proven solid enough in doubles, but her last six matches dating back to last season have gone the distance. She’s 2-4 in those situations.
This might be a much more dangerous quarter than you think.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
Bucsa-Zhang will rate the team to beat here, but there are PLENTY of danger duos in the unseeded field that will test them and (4)Mihalikova-Nicholls. Chaun-Tauson and the Kichenoks might be the best chances to scoot through to a surprise final, but I want to see this Eala-Tjen combo. They could be special or they could be one and done. The Kichenoks would rate as the likelier unseeded pair to make it through to a semifinal or final.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Chan-Tauson vs (2)Bucsa-Zhang
As we move on from the first Grand Slam of 2026 and into the grind of the regular season, Abu Dhabi represents an opportunity for one of these pairs to earn good points in this WTA 500. This could also be a shot for one of the new 2026 pairings to make their mark. Muhammad-Routliffe or Perez-Schuurs would love to get title #1 of the season this week. Will they? I have my doubts with both having plenty of trouble on their path to glory. I’d definitely look to Perez-Schuurs over the top seeds though if you’re choosing between the two. That first quarter is just lethal looking.
Bucsa-Zhang for me look like they could shape up as the ones to beat as long as they can get their rhythm going early on or the Kichenoks will may their stay in Abu Dhabi a short one. Outside of the obvious Krejcikova-Ostapenko threat from the unseeded field, I really am focusing on Alexandrova-Joint as ones that could stun this week. Kenin-Krawczyk are my other sleepers albeit in a supreme boom or bust mode in round one against the top seeds. I am expecting a surprise or three in the final four for this tournament.
Enjoy the grind as February arrives.
Bucsa-Zhang
Alexandrova-Joint
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