SHANGHAI NEWS & NOTES
*Defending champs Krawietz-Puetz are back to try to become the first pair to win back-to-back titles in Shanghai. The Germans, who are splitting at the end of the season, won the 2025 Shaghai titles as the three seeds. They defeated unseeded Goransson-Michelson 6-4, 6-4 in the final as 1.44 (-227) favorites. The straight sets result marked the second in the last three runs of this tournament since it rebooted back in 2023 after being skipped over from 2020-2022 due to the pandemic. The last underdog win in the final came in 2019 when (8)Pavic-Soares beat (2)Kubot-Melo as 2.08 (+108) dogs
*The reboot has seen an uptick in Unseeded Menace action in the final. Three of the last four pairs to make the Shanghai final have not been seeded. Koolhoff-Mektic were the last unseeded champs in 2024. They were the first unseeded duo to win the titles at this stop since 2016 (Isner-Sock). With that increase in unseeded pairs making the final, does that mean underdogs are getting the job done regularly? Eleven of the 30 completed matches last year went the way of the dog. Six of those came in round one with a high of 3.63 (+263). The second largest u-dog score of the tournament came in the semifinals via Goransson-Michelson topping (1)Arevalo-Pavic at 3.16 (+216). Overall, the 2025 total was up from nine underdog wins in 2024. 2024 also featured six dog scores in round one with a massive 8.03 (+703) winner in that round. Interestingly, the two big scores in round one the last two runs in Shanghai came with two unseeded teams squaring off.
*Speaking of Unseeded Menaces, there have been multiple unseeded pairs in the semifinals each of the three year since the Shanghai re-start in 2023, including an all-unseeded semifinal field in 2024. 2018 was the last time there were not multiple unseeded pairs in the final four with that year being the last to have all seeded pairs in the semis. As you might expect, that means it has not paid to be a seed of late at this Masters 1000. The top seeded pair has only been as far as the semifinals once in the last three seasons. They have not been to the final since 2017, when Kontinen-Peers won the titles as the #1 seeds. Expect the unexpected this time of year.
*Super tie breaks were bountiful in 2025. Twelve of the 30 completed matches needed the extra frame. Somewhat surprisingly, only three of those came in the opening round. All four quarterfinals went to super tie breaks as well as one of the semifinals. The semifinals have been a good source of STBs since the reboot with four of the last six semifinals going the distance. If you’re hunting for a trend, look early and often on the super tie breaks despite last year’s low total in round one. Thirty-one of the last 42 super tie break matches in Shanghai since 2023 have come in rounds one and two.
*Seeds have had some issues getting out of round one the last two years. Half the seeded field has gone one and done two straight seasons.
*Four of the last five runs in Shanghai overall have seen at least one top four seed go down in round one. The interesting thing you can see in the graphic above is that the #1 seeds in Shanghai have been hugely HIT or absolutely MISS with three #1 winning titles in Shanghai and the other two losing in round one. Harrison-Skupski are this year’s top seeds at this Masters event and if the graphic don’t lie, they could be on their way to the titles after winning their opener on Friday. The double Slam winners in 2026 have done a fantastic job at avoiding the one and dones. They have lost just four openers this year, although two did come before their U.S. Open title run.
*With Shanghai being one of the last two Masters (Paris), this is a massive week for the teams trying to nail down a spot in the ATP Finals. Three teams have qualified: Heliovaara-Patten, Harrison-Skupski and Granollers-Zeballos. Arevalo-Pavic have an excellent chance to wrap up their spot before their end-of-season split with a few wins this week. Bolelli-Vavassori are in good shape in 5th, but spots 6-8 still appear up-for-grabs. Krawietz-Puetz sit in 6th, but only 630 points separate them from Cash-Glasspool in 10th. With big points here and in Paris, things could shuffle quickly. The only team in the top 14 not in Shanghai are Doumbia-Reboul due to the knee injury that Reboul sustained last week. They won’t be making the top 8. The rest of the rankings between six and 14 will be fun to watch this week to see who sets up with a realistic shot to lock down a spot in the Top 8 by the end of the Paris Masters.
I mentioned earlier the success that unseeded pairs have seen in Shanghai the last two years with three of the last four semifinalists coming from the unseeded field. Let’s take a look at the danger duos who could provide the surprise in 2026.10.8
Krajicek-Mektic
They’ve got a lot of work to do to catch the #8 spot, currently 1,000 points back. Still, they have found a nice groove over the last six weeks with a title last week in Tokyo and wins in nine of their last eleven matches. They’ll have to prove they can beat Bolelli-Vavassori again, a pair they are 2-1 against. Their matches have been very tight, so it’s a real 50-50 shot in round one. A win there though and this pair could be on course for a big time showdown with another team chasing a Top 8 spot in Cash-Glasspool. With three finals in their last six tournaments, I wouldn’t look past these two in Shanghai.
Bublik-Shelton
They have a history together and the history has some success with this singles pair making the Rome semifinals two years ago when they first paired up. I think this surface in Shanghai works to their power strengths, so if they focus enough instead of going for pure entertainment or ball obliteration, they could be a factor. I don’t think most pairs in this draw want to see these two still playing late in the tournament. Keep an eye on them to see if they can get out of the gates with a victory.
Cabral-Tracy
I think the jury is still out on these two despite their Hangzhou titles a couple weeks back. They split two super tie breaks in Beijing last week, losing to Cash-Erler. For me, they have to step up and prove they can beat some of the better quality pairs in the game. They get that chance and reside in an interesting quarter with (2)Arevalo-Pavic and (7)Luz-Matos. Arevalo-Pavic play for the first time since it came out that they’ll be splitting after 2026. They open against Luz-Matos who have lost two straight openers after their brilliant back-to-back titles in Toronto and Cincinnati. Could Cabral-Tracy take advantage of some late-season fatigue, both mental and physical, by the seeds in their quarter? If they get past Luz-Matos, it’s game on.
Galloway-Goransson
They’re in that same quarter with Cabral-Tracy and face similar questions. They made the final in Chengdu with a win over Arribage-Olivetti, the current #9 team in the rankings, along the way. They crashed out early in Tokyo last week, so which pair shows up in Shanghai? They generally have played tight sets, even in losses, so there’s a shot they can get on a run again this week in a quarter that does have those questions I posed above. They won their opener earlier today in a super tie break.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
I showed you earlier with the graphic that seeds have had a tough time early on in Shanghai in the last two years. That already carried over to Day One with (6)Andreozzi-Guinard losing. (1)Harrison-Skupski and (3)Krawietz-Puetz both survived their round one clashes. Let’s take a look to see if any of the remaining opening round matches involving seeds have some upset potential.
(4)Bolelli-Vavassori
A difficult opener for the Italians as they square off against Krajicek-Mektic for the second straight week and fourth time overall this season. The Italians won the U.S. Open battle in three sets, but lost last week in Tokyo 7-5, 7-6 and at Wimbledon in three sets. This figures to be one of the highlight round one clashes. The winner should be in contention for a semifinal spot.
(5)Cash-Glasspool
If there’s anything that shows the consistency struggles of the Brits in 2026, it’s what they do after making a final. They won Beijing last week, their fifth final of the season. In three of the previous four finals trips, their next match has ended in a loss. Does the trend continue in Shanghai? They get Darderi-Etcheverry, which may sound like a winnable match … and it is, but it’s also not like the singles pair is an easy out. They’re 2-3 this year, but all but one of those losses was pretty tight. They lost their opener last week in Tokyo in a super tie break. I’m intrigued to see this one and the Brits better be alert or last week’s good work could end up in a flat finish in round one.
(7)Luz-Matos
The Brazilians catch a rough round one matchup with Cabral-Tracy who I highlighted in the Unseeded Menaces section. The Brazilians have been bounced in their openers in two straight tournaments with a Davis Cup victory sandwiched in between. They could desperately use an early win this week to give themselves some breathing room as the #7 team in the race. Cabral-Tracy have been trending in the right direction after a slow start to their partnership, but this might be the toughest matchup they’ve had so far.
Have bee
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
Quarter one is led by top seeds Harrison-Skupski who edged Arneodo-Gonzalez 7-6, 6-4 in their Friday opener. The top seeds won’t find things any easier in round two as they wait for either Nouza-Venus or Nys/Roger-Vasselin. Nouza-Venus showed their danger level last week in Tokyo, narrowly losing to Krajicek-Mektic in a super tie break (10-7) in their team debut. Nys/Roger-Vasselin split matches in Tokyo last week . They will seek to do better than last year when they were ousted in round one by Andreozzi-Guinard. An early loss could all but end any hope they have of making a late run at the Tour Finals. As it stands, they’ll need big runs here and in Paris to have a remote shot at sneaking into the Top 8. This looks like a coin flip. I think the survivor can give the top seeds a good match, but it seems like the top seeds are a cut above this level of competiton right now.
In the bottom half of the quarter, (6)Andreozzi-Guinard went one and done to Buse-Vallejo in a loss that hurts their standing inside the Top 8. The early loss gives those teams chasing a spot a real opportunity in Shaghai to catch up to the current #8 pair. Buse-Vallejo wait for Schnaitter-Wallner or Cerundolo-Tirante. It will be the first time pairing for the two Argentinians better known for singles. Schnaitter-Wallner continue to be a tough out most weeks, but also a pair that has only been to two finals with both coming on clay this season. The Germans should like that they’ll avoid Andreozzi-Guinard if they advance, so there’s some opportunity here for them to win a couple. They’re likely well out of contention for a Top 8 spot with the Germans currently at #14, but about 1600 points out of 8th. They’d likely need to make a final in Shanghai or Paris to truly put themselves into contention. Could it happen? They have played Harrison-Skupski tough this year, but only have one win in four tries to show for it.
The second quarter sees (4)Bolelli-Vavassori and (5)Cash-Glasspool as the seeds. In the top half with the Italians, I already talked up the potential banger in round one against Krajicek-Mektic. If we’re talking 50-50 matches, that’s one for sure. The Italians have plenty to play for as they still haven’t locked down a spot in Turin just yet, but are sitting pretty at the #5 position with a gap of 930 points back to the #8 spot. Still, an early loss here and they may be waiting until Paris to cement their spot. Krajicek-Mektic really have to have this opener with 1,000 points still to make up on Andreozzi-Guinard. The survivor will see Khachanov-Rublev or Miedler-Oberleitner in round two. The Russians have dropped five straight, while the specialists come in off a nice quarterfinal run in Tokyo. It was their first tournament together since they last paired in 2020 at the Futures level. Give them the edge here and don’t be surprised if they give either Bolelli-Vavassori or Krajicek-Mektic all they can handle. I lean towards the Italians simply because I think it’s very tough to beat the same pair twice in two weeks when the levels in play are similar.
