WIMBLEDON NEWS & NOTES
*Last year saw sixth seeds Kudermetova-Mertens take home the titles at the All-England Club as 1.74 (-135) favorites in the final over four seeds Hsieh-Ostapenko. They would rally back from a set down 3-6, 6-2, 6-4. That was the first three set finish in the final since 2021 when Hsieh-Mertens coincidentally beat Kudermetova-Vesnina 9-7 in the third set. The win was also the 12th by the favorite in the final in the last 13 runs of Wimbledon.
*Underdogs in general had a tough time scouting out wins in 2025 with only ten of the 61 completed matches going to the dogs. Five of last year’s dog scores came in round one. Surprisingly that number (10) was nearly double the six underdog wins in 2024. 2023? That was a banner year and the last time the underdog won the title match. There were 18 u-dog victories in 2023. With the scarcity of underdog wins the last two years, there’s certainly not a real trend in finding them.
*So does the lack of underdog wins lately mean there are not many Unseeded Menaces at Wimbledon? Nope. Four of the last five years have seen at least one unseeded semifinal pair with two of those years seeing multiple unseeded pairs. They have accomplished that with smaller windows though with only three of the last five years seeing multiple unseeded pairs in the quarterfinals. And unseeded champions have been fairly rare with only two since 2016, with 2023 being the last time (Hsieh-Strycova). Still, you can bet I will cover the unseeded field below for potential sleepers in 2026.
*Three set results checked in at 18 matches in 2025. That was down slightly from 21 in 2024 and right on par with the 18 three setters back in 2023. Twenty-seven of the three set finishes over that three-year span have gone down in round one or about 47 percent of them. The semifinals have been a consistent landing spot over the years with seven of the last eight runs here seeing at least one semifinal go the distance. That might be your best place to focus as there isn’t a real clear cut pattern otherwise through the other rounds.
*The story of 2026 whether you wanted it to be or not WAS set to be the return of the Williams’ sisters to the grass courts where they won six Wimbledon doubles titles. The last came in 2016. That however may well not be a story at all after Serena tweaked her knee in her first round singles loss. The Williamses are still slated to play on Friday … for now, so we will cover them, but not hyper focus on them as others have done.
*Fast forward to the bigger story in London: the battle at the top of the rankings. Siniakova-Townsend lead Danilina-Krunic by almost 700 points. The current #s have been DOMINANT this season at 25-2 with four titles in six tournaments played, including the French Open championships. They won here in 2024, but fell short of the repeat last year in the semifinals. Still, there is no doubt that Siniakova-Townsend are overwhelming favorites. As for Danilina-Krunic, grass may not be their thing as they lost two of three in grass preps. Those were their first three matches together on the surface. Instead, look to the current #3 team as big time contenders with Dabrowski-Stefani seeded second this week. They steamrolled their way to the Eastbourne titles and have made the semifinals of both the Australian Open and French Open. The minuses? 1-2 versus Danilina-Krunic and 0-2 versus Siniakova-Townsend, including that devastating 6-0, 6-1 loss in the French Open semifinals. They may need help to truly have a shot, but they’ll at least stay away from both of those pairs unless they meet in the final. They’re 700 back of Danilina-Krunic for second, so that perhaps is something they could conceivably chop down if their form holds.
So about those unseeded pairs that could join the elite club of unseeded champions at Wimbledon? I am not sure there is one, but there are certainly a few who could crash that semifinal party.
Cirstea-Kalinskaya
We haven’t seen these two since an opening loss at the Australian Open, but don’t forget they made the quarterfinals here last year. That included a win over Andreeva-Shnaider and a three set loss to eventual runners-up Hsieh-Ostapenko. They’re in the Danilina-Krunic quarter, which is why I think there’s a chance for them despite not having any sort of rhythm to rely on heading into the tournament.
Kalinina-Yastremska
They face off with Cirstea-Kalinskaya in round one, so there can be only one – Outlander-ish pick to move on. The Ukrainians played the French Open together, so there is at least some recent play to carry over. They were suitable losers 6-4, 6-4 to Danilina-Krunic in round three, which is more a badge of courage than failure this year. They have also played Wimbledon once prior in 2024, losing a truly great fight to Gauff-Pegula 7-5, 6-7, 7-5. They know what to do at this level, so that first rounder could be a real BANGER with the ignition switch flipped for the winner.
Kostyuk-Ruse
You know the drill by now. If they’re in a Grand Slam draw, they are always on this list. They’ve never been past the round of 16 here though, but they are a scary match-up as Melichar-Martinez/Routliffe may find out in round one. They’ve been good for at least one Slam quarterfinal each year since 2022 when they enter. This year, Wimbledon will be their first Slam together, so it’s a smaller window to continue that streak with the US Open to follow (if they play).
Dart-Lumsden
They’ll be the home favorites to root for and why not? You probably didn’t notice they made back-to-back finals in Birmingham and Nottingham, taking the titles in Nottingham. They need to grab that first Wimbledon win after failing the last two years in three set losses. It’s not an easy draw as they have to play Sutjiadi-Tjen who they just beat in a super tie break in the Nottingham semifinals. Still, if something special comes from a British pair – this is my vote to do it.
Kessler-Shnaider
Want a real dartboard shot? How about this first time duo? Both have some good results on grass in their young careers. Kessler made the semis at Queen’s Club with Jovic, beating Dabrowski-Stefani along that route. Shnaider made round three here last year with Andreeva and they also got to the Queen’s Club final. It’s all about chemistry and if this pair has that, they could at least contend for a surprise quarterfinal. Semifinal? Siniakova-Townsend would like to have a word.
Hsieh-Wang
Do you want to sleep on a pair that has won a Grand Slam even though they haven’t been regular partners this year? If it was another surface, maybe. On grass, Hsieh is a different player from others as her five Wimbledon doubles titles can attest. There’s no secret that time is running thin on her career, so each chance here feels like a big deal. I’d expect to see an effort to match the urgency.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
The last two years, the first round upsets have been scarce. Prior to last season, there would usually be multiple seeds out in round one. Was last year an anomaly? Let’s take a look at the toughest first round draws for seeds who could be in some early trouble.
(3)Danilina-Krunic
Two of three losses on grass doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence although this pair has probably earned the benefit of the doubt amidst a superb season. They draw Fernandez-Putintseva who have experience over the last two seasons together. Their most famous run came at Cincinnati in 2024 when they made the final. Danilina-Krunic may well survive, but don’t be surprised if it goes three sets.
(5)Melichar-Martinez/Routliffe
They played twice already in grass prep, but lost both matches as Routliffe’s tough 2026 continued. Even tougher? Round one against vets Kostyuk-Ruse. They have all the Slam experience you’d want with good success as well as outlined earlier. Odds makers see the same here as Kostyuk-Ruse actually opened up as small favorites in this one. This wouldn’t be a big upset given the circumstances.
(6)Errani-Paolini
There haven’t been a lot of reps lately for the Italians due to the Paolini injury. They’ve played just once on grass, a loss in Eastbourne. This hasn’t been a successful stop for the most part with a third round result standing as their best two years ago. They square off against Kozyreva-Shymanovich who have been productive when paired at 18-7 this year. They split four matches on grass during the pre-Wimbledon swing with all four going to super tie breaks. This could be interesting.
(7)Siegemund-Zvonareva
I usually don’t go against their experience with two previous trips to Wimbledon, but this is their first since 2023. That’s also the last time they touched grass together. They draw Brits Brooks-Rajecki who made the final on grass at the Ilkey event last week. The Brits are 15-5 together this season, but this is easily the toughest draw they’ll have had. Will the moment be too much on home soil or will home soil provide a boost? I think it’s worth looking at this one to see. Rajecki in particular has been killing it at the ITF level in 2026 with three titles and six total finals.
(12)Mihalikova-Nicholls
This regular pairing has had a similar build-up in past seasons. Make finals in prep before Wimbledon, but then disappoint a little bit at Wimbledon. This year they won Queen’s Club. Last year they won Berlin, but crashed out in round one at Wimbledon. It’s Maleckova-Skoch as their first round foes, a pair that did just make the Eastbourne final. Depending on which version of Mihalikova-Nicholls shows up, this may well end up with another early exit.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
First Quarter
Is there a team here that can stop (1)Siniakova-Townsend short of a semifinal? (8)Kenin-Ostapenko are the highest seeds behind them on the other side of the quarter, but they haven’t developed the sort of chemistry the top seeds have at this stage. Perhaps (10)Guo-Mladenovic or (16)Muhammad-Stollar? Neither has played the top seeds and both have plenty of experience to call on, but there’s nothing to suggest they’d take them out unless the top seeds produce an absolute dud. Looking at Sinikova-Townsend’s half, Muhammad-Stollar could be on the collision course to face them in round three. They made back-to-back semifinals in Berlin and Eastbourne, so they’ve looked solid on grass. Their toughest match could be their opener versus Kichenok-Ninomiya.
In the other half, Kenin-Ostapenko start with the inexperience Bartunkova and Eala in round one. That should be a winnable opener. Round two may be tougher regardless of foe with Kessler-Shnaider or Detiuc-Khromacheva. I talked up the potential of Kessler-Shnaider earlier and for me, that’s still the tougher of the two they could face. Guo-Mladenovic on the other side in this half should have an opportunity to advance and perhaps seek out a second straight Slam quarterfinal. They may well be the team to beat in this section with chemistry established and a good look at grass already after making the semifinals at Queen’s Club. Alexandrova-Joint are an intriguing duo in this section, but they may just be one hit wonders. That pair won Abu Dhabi early this season in their first tournament together, but were outclassed in their grass debut at Hertogenbosch by a solid pair in Aoyama-Liang.
I’d like to think Guo-Mladenovic MAYBE could at least make for a competitive quarterfinal if they match against Siniakova-Townsend. Normally it’s been Hsieh-led pairs though that give them the most fits on grass and that won’t happen here. I don’t see any reason to go against Siniakova-Townsend to get the semifinal berth.
Second Quarter
(3)Danilina-Krunic and (7)Siegemund-Zvonareva are the top two seeds in this quarter. I have talked about grass potentially being the equalizer for the three seeds who have otherwise enjoyed a superb season. Two Slam finals and probably as under-the-radar still as you could be for achieving that feat in a season. Fernandez-Putintseva will be an immediate test and round two probably would be even more harsh if they survive. That’s where Cirstea-Kalinskaya or Kalinina-Yastremska will be waiting. I will be surprised to see Danilina-Krunic get past round two. On the other side, unsung 15th seeds Eikeri-Gleason have a decent set up. They made the Berlin semifinals beating Mertens-Zhang, but were also outclassed by Danilina-Krunic at Queen’s Club. Still, this part of the draw is a bit soft with Neel-Olmos being the most dangerous floater.
In the other part of the quarter, Siegemund-Zvonareva could be in for a tussle with British wildcards Brooks-Rajecki in round one … or the Brits could be horrible overmatched. I still think on home soil that the young ‘uns can make this competitive. The survivors will have a good path to the third round with two unfamilair pairs vying to battle it out against them in round two. Kichenok-Krawczyk are the #11 seeds opposite of that section. It’s been a rough year for them at 9-13 with grass continuing that trend with three losses in four matches. Even so, it’s an advantageous round one clash with Oliynykova-Zarazua and another loss should signal Splitsville perhaps for the season. Reasonably, this whole section sets them up well with Jiang-Xu or Golubic-Valentova in round two. Jiang-Xu have dropped six straight and nine of their last ten. If Siegemund-Zvonareva survive round one, it’s hard not figuring them in the mix to fight for a quarterfinal berth.
Normally, Danilina-Krunic would be the easy pick, but as I have beaten into your brain by now, grass is a relatively new surface for them and one they have yet to master. I think that leaves this quarter open and perhaps it could be where a surprise unseeded pair pushes through. I really like the winner of that Cirstea-Kalinskaya/Kalinina-Yastremska match as the ones who could make that surprise run. Siegemund-Zvonareva would be the most obvious choice if a seed passes through for me.
TOP HALF FORECAST
It’s still Siniakova-Townsend and the field. IF and it’s a huge IF, if Danilina-Krunic actually find their footing on grass, they’re the ones who can at least make you think the semifinal won’t be a blowout. They own two wins against the top seeds, but Siniakova-Townsend have reversed course and beaten them two straight, including a fairly dominant display in the French Open final. I can’t see Siegemund-Zvonareva being that competitive against the world #1s, so for me this is only a question of whether or not Danilina-Krunic find their grass groove.
QUARTERFINAL PIX
(1)Sinakova-Townsend vs (10)Guo-Mladenovic
Kalinina-Yastremska vs (7)Siegemund-Zvonareva
SEMIFINAL PIX
(1)Siniakova-Townsend vs Kalinina-Yastremska
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
This quarter is led by (4)Mertens-Zhang who just haven’t been the same pair as when they won the Australian Open. They split two matches in Berlin in their lone grass prep, but they have been mostly a .500 pair since winning in Melbourne. The first real test is likely to come in round two where Wimbledon royalty could be waiting in the form of Hsieh Su-wei. She’s a four-time ladies’ doubles champ here and one time mixed doubles champ. She’s paired with Wang with that duo winning both their Berlin matches before withdrawing due to Wang’s singles run. Don’t forget this is a pair that won the French Open back in 2023 and made the U.S. Open semis that same season. They can get it done on the big stage. The team that you really have to watch in this half though is (13)Aoyama-Liang. They’re 12-2 on the season, sweeping their four matches in grass prep in winning the Hertogenbosch titles. And oh yeah, they also made the French Open semifinals. They’re likely the favorites in reality to make quarterfinals.
Opposite of that, we see (5)Melichar-Martinez/Routliffe as the highest seeds. They’re still seeking their first win and it may not come here with Kostyuk-Ruse up first. Whomever survives could be up against the crowd in round two where Dart-Lumsden may be set to battle the winner. The Brits have played very well on grass on home soil, so they’re ones to watch here. The seeds who may do the most damage in this part of the quarter are (9)Perez-Schuurs who made the Bad Homborg final last week. Kato-Rakhimova are no pushovers in round one, but that’s a match they’re expected to win. The big break may have come with the Serena Williams injury as that would be a likely second round clash between the Williamses and Perez-Schuurs. We will wait and see if Serena gives it a go, but it certainly could limit her effectiveness. If they do stay in the draw, it will be their first doubles match since a 2022 loss in round one of the U.S. Open.
Some of this quarter will hinge on the health of Serena, there’s no doubt. But even if she is close to 100 percent, it’s asking a lot to expect them to show up and show out with a big run. My eyes drift to Aoyama-Liang as the favorites in this section despite the lower seeding. They’ve been on a heater and have a workable draw. The unseeded menaces? Hsieh-Wang without a doubt.
Fourth Quarter
Finally, the last quarter houses perhaps the pair that is just waiting for the right moment to hit to score their signature win of 2026. That’s (2)Dabrowski-Stefani. They’ve been one of the most consistent pairs on tour, yet sit in third behind Siniakova-Townsend and Danilina-Krunic. Their half of the quarter sets up well with Hunter-McNally as the other seed in their path. Those two haven’t quite connected on the level I was hoping with a 2-2 record in limited play. They do have a good early draw too, so we may be expecting a seed versus seed battle in round three. If there’s a team to throw that off, look at Kempen-Panova. They looked tough in a super tie break loss at Bad Homborg in their lone match. It’s still hard not to like the consistency of Dabrowski-Stefani to bank another quarterfinal berth at a Slam in 2026.7.1
The top half of the quarter could be fascinating to see unfold with Errani-Paolini and Mihalikova-Nicholls as the seeds. I touched on the issues both are facing, but at the same time, the draw is kind for them if they can get into rhythm early. I think survival in round one is the obvious key. The 6th seeded Italians battle Kozyreva-Shymanovich who were highly competitive during grass prep. They’ll take advantage of any shortcomings. The winner will be the expected pair to get to round three. As for Mihalikova-Nicholls, it may be a similar fate where winning round one will put them on the proper path for Wimbledon success. Maleckova-Skoch will be a challenge however in round one. This quarter will either be chalk with the seeds or absolutely blown up in my opinion. Let’s see how it goes down.
This sure looks like Dabrowski-Stefani’s quarter to lose as you’d expect with the seeding. They come in hot and they’ve done nothing at Grand Slams to suggest they’ll flame out early. I do think Mihalikova-Nicholls are the ones to watch as far as other seeds who could potentially make a run. They’ve shown enough on grass over the years, it’s just a matter of whether they can put it together at Wimbledon. I think Kozyreva-Shymanovich would be my unseeded dark horses, but this ultimately should go to a seed.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
Much like the top half, the question here is who can stop Dabrowski-Stefani? Unlike the top half, I do see some pairs that could get through instead. Perez-Schuurs and Aoyama-Liang would be the two seeds I look at who could contend for a somewhat surprising finals run. Both played well at the French Open, so Grand Slam success is already pre-loaded. If there’s a true shocker in this half, Hsieh-Wang certainly could play that role as an unseeded menace. They’ve got plenty of experience to call upon.
QUARTERFINAL PIX
(9)Perez-Schuurs vs (13)Aoyama-Liang
Kozyreva-Shymanovic vs (2)Dabrowski-Stefani
SEMIFINAL PIX
(13)Aoyama-Liang vs (2)Dabrowski-Stefani
History suggests a 1 versus 2 final won’t happen. There’s only been one of those since 2016. So who doesn’t get there? Picking against Siniakova-Townsend is poison, BUT three of their last five Grand Slams have seen them fall short of a final. That said, their set up here looks like one set up for success. Dabrowski-Stefani meanwhile do have a couple of hot pairs in Perez-Schuurs and Aoyama-Liang in their path potentially plus the almighty Hsieh Su-wei. As much as I love those two, I am going to go against them in this spot. I don’t know if it will be another coronation for Siniakova-Townsend in the end, but they certainly should have the shot. Enjoy the show!
Siniakova-Townsend
Aoyama-Liang
Hsieh-Wang
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