INDIAN WELLS NEWS & NOTES
*Arevalo-Pavic are back to defend their 2025 Indian Wells titles. It has been 12 years since the last pair to repeat at the BNP Paribas Open. That was of course the Bryan Brothers who won back-to-back in 2013-2014. Arevalo-Pavic were the top seeds a year ago when they won. They became the first #1 seeds to win in the desert since … you guessed it! The Bryans in 2014.
*Arevalo-Pavic were firm favorites in last year’s title match at 1.63 (-158). The favorite has won four of the last five title matches at Indian Wells. The straight sets finish was also the fourth in the last five runs of this tournament. Korda-Thompson’s inclusion in the final as an unseeded pair continued a streak of seven straight runs here where an unseeded pair was involved in the final. An unseeded champion has been crowned five times in the last seven versions of the BNP Paribas Open.
*With that unseeded success, I will focus more on the pairs who could be intriguing contender options in 2026 in just a bit in the UNSEEDED MENACES section. First though a few more notes on unseeded success at Indian Wells. Last year, three of the four semifinal pairs were unseeded. It is now seven straight runs of this tournament that has featured at least two unseeded duos in the semifinals.
*Since unseeded pairs have made those runs, that must mean underdogs have had a good go of it at Indian Wells, right? Somewhat. Last year, there were eleven underdog wins out of 31 completed matches. More than half (6) came in round one, but the two largest scores came in the round of 16 and the quarterfinals. The largest was 3.58 (+258) when (5)Cash-Glasspool fell in round two against Romboli-Smith. Of the eleven u-dog wins in 2025, five involved a seeded pair losing. The dog count was well up from 2024 when only six underdogs scored wins at Indian Wells. 2023 had nine u-dog victories. Focus on seeds losing if you’re hunting out the underdog potential. That seems to be the slight trend over the last few runs.
*Finally, let’s visit are friend, the super tie break. In 2025, 13 of the 31 completed matches required the extra frame to settle. As expected, round one was the site of the most of those with six. Five more came in the second round. That was up from ten in 2024 and 12 in 2023. Each of the last three years has seen six first round matches require a super tie break, so that seems like a good focal point if you’re hunting those down. The semifinals have also been productive with one semifinal going to a STB in six straight runs of the BNP Paribas Open.
*This year’s field is led by top seeds Granollers-Zeballos. They have struggled a bit on the desert with three round one exits out of five previous trips. Making the 2024 final has been their highlight at Indian Wells. Cash-Glasspool come to IW seeking their 1st title in 2026 with two finals to their credit. They were stunned in round two here last year. Rounding out the top four are defending champs Arevalo-Pavic and Australian Open champs Harrison-Skupski. Notable absences this week include Simone Bolelli leaving Andrea Vavassori to fend for himself with a different partner and red hot Heliovaara-Patten choosing to skip Indian Wells after the travel nightmares of Dubai for so many players.
*As per usual, Indian Wells features a bevy of singles players entered in pairs as perhaps the most sought-after entry for singles players at any doubles event. Some of the highlight pairs include wild cards Opelka-Sinner and Djokovic-Tsitsipas as “singles pairs.” Other singles players injected into the draw with doubles specialists that could be of interest include de Minaur-Peers, Melo-Zverev and Diallo-King.
The success of unseeded pairs at Indian Wells in the men’s draw has been a bit insane. Two of the last three champions were unseeded with both of those featuring specialists. That doesn’t mean pairs with singles players should be left out as Korda-Thompson showed a year ago. So, let’s take a look at the pairs who could be danger duos from the unseeded field.
Opelka-Sinner
Yes, Mr. I Hate Doubles is playing doubles. This pairing is one we saw back in 2021, where they won the titles in Atlanta. This field will be much more challenging, but they certainly could blow up the bracket early as they face top seeds Granollers-Zeballos to open. That will be a must see for me. A win there and they immediately are marked as contenders, albeit as with all players on double duty, you have to wonder if they have the stamina to go all the way? It does help of course that doubles starts after singles has been going for a round or two.
Melo-Zverev
This will be their fourth time playing in the desert and they have only gone 1-3 in those previous trips. Some of that certainly can be attributed to poor draws. That’s not an excuse this year as they sit in a soft part of the draw with a struggling Nys/Roger-Vasselin where you could see them potentially getting to a quarterfinal. They come in hot after winning the titles in Acapulco, which totally reversed course after this pair lost nine of ten matches in 2025. They probably need help to get into the semifinal mix, but they’re capable if things fall their way.
Erler-Vavassori
It’s odd to see Vavassori without his regular partner Simone Bolelli, but that’s what you get this week. Instead he pairs with Erler for the first time. Erler had been partnering Galloway most weeks with two finals to show for their work. This is certainly a big guess as there is no telling if they’ll have the chemistry, but they are a pair to watch as they start against (8)Johnson-Zielinski.
Bhambri-Goransson
They were a quarterfinal finisher last year at Indian Wells with an upset of Heliovaara-Patten as the highlight. All three of their matches went to super tie breaks. Their 2026 hasn’t been steady so far at 5-6, but they’re one of those pairs that can put together a run out of nowhere. They’d likely need to come up with another big upset along the way, which could come as early as round two against (2)Cash-Glasspool.
Andreozzi-Guinard
They have not shown the same flair for the dramatic as we saw late in 2025 with two finals and a solid semifinal in Shanghai. Still, they scored an upset of Harrison-Skupski in Acapulco to flash their potential a week ago. Then they got destroyed in the next round, so it’s a guess whether they can put together a string of solid performances. They’re still dangerous at any time though, so I think you have to have them on your short list of unseeded menaces for this tournament.
Arribage-Olivetti
Three titles in 2026 say this pair can ball. Two may have come indoors, but they also won in Auckland outdoors early on. I think the more reps they get outdoors in tough conditions, like Indian Wells often provides, can only help them moving forward. They seem very boom or bust, but they are in a quarter with Johnson-Zielinski the closest seed en route to a quarterfinal and Cash-Glasspool perhaps to make a semifinal. If they can find consistency on serve, they are capable of beating anyone in this draw.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Seeds have been prone to the upsets early at Indian Wells of late. At least three seeds have gone one and done in the last five years at this tournament.
So who could be facing an early exit in 2026?
(1)Granollers-Zeballos
I talked about it earlier. Facing Opelka-Sinner in round one could be tough … or those two may not come close to reproducing the magic they had the one time they paired years ago in Atlanta. Which one is more likely? It’s a bit of a question and with the conditions in the desert, you never know what can happen early.
(4)Harrison-Skupski
It hasn’t been rosey for the Australian Open champs since the calendar flipped to February and now March. They’ve gone just 1-2 since winning the season’s first Grand Slam. The small margins have gone against them with losses of 7-6, 7-6 and 3-6, 7-6, 11-9. That’s part of the reason they are on the list though as they go against Cerundolo-Darderi in round one. The “singles pair” has some experience together from last season where they looked dangerous in going 2-2. I would not be shocked if this match is very close with Harrison-Skupski seeking to find the right side of the margins again.
(6)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
It just has not happened for this duo in 2026. They are 1-4 and have lost three straight openers. That said, four of their five matches this season have gone the distance. It’s not like they’re getting blown out, they just have had trouble finishing off with wins. They square off with Khachanov-Rublev who have plenty of experience together, but are 0-3 all-time at this tournament. I’d still expect a close one with it more like a 50-50 call right now.
(7)Cabral-Miedler
It’s Cash-Tracy first-up for the seeds. Cabral-Miedler have not lost their opener in six tournaments this year, but two of the last three have gone to a super tie break. Cash-Tracy’s four opening match defeats this year? They have all gone to a super tie break. That might be the best bet for this match with the outcome as to the winner very much in question.
(8)Johnson-Zielinski
Johnson-Zielinski haven’t won since making the surprise run to the Australian Open semifinals. That’s three straight losses with two coming post-Australia. They have won sets in each loss, but the last two in particular do not bode well. That lost to singles pairs in Kecmanovic-Nakashima and Cobolli-Dimitrov. They get Erler-Vavassori to start. That is a pair I touched on earlier that could be a dark horse if they gel quickly. This might be the spot to start that unexpected journey.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
First Quarter
This quarter houses (1)Granollers-Zeballos and (5)Krawietz-Puetz as the seeds. The top seeds could be up against it with Opelka-Sinner as the opening opponent. That could be the toughest matchup for them with the #1 seeds 4-0 in their careers against the 5th seeded Germans. Should Granollers-Zeballos survive, they could see Doumbia-Reboul in round two. That isn’t a given with the French pair 0-2 in their careers in the desert. Could the oddball pairing of Bublik-Maroszan take them out? Bublik broke a lengthy doubles losing streak in Dubai, so anything is possible. And if Doumbia-Reboul advance, do remember they narrowly lost to Granollers-Zeballos 10-7 in a super tie break in Dallas last month.
Krawietz-Puetz get a chance to prove that specialists matter in the bottom half. The other three duos here are all comprised of singles players. The Germans start with Nakashima-Tiafoe. The Americans went 1-1 in play in 2025. Krawietz-Puetz haven’t played in close to a month since losing their Rotterdam opener, so perhaps that makes this a bit more interesting than necessary. I’ll stick with the Germans in the end. The match opposite that pits Nava-Shelton against Davidovich Fokina-Fils. Both pairs have experience together and experience winning at least a match. None of these guys have played much doubles this year, so it’s a real crapshoot in round one.
This is a fascinating quarter for people like myself who enjoy watching the specialists put singles players in the loss column. It is literally three specialists’ pairs against five singles pairs. I have a hard time seeing another pair outside of Opelka-Sinner clearly challenging for a semifinal spot and they could easily be gone in round one.
Second Quarter
Australian Open champions (4)Harrison-Skupski maybe somewhat predictably have struggled since tennis left Australia. They’re 1-2 since winning in Melbourne with losses to Andreozzi-Guinard in Acapulco and Arribage-Olivetti in Dallas. Both were tight matches, but the small margins went against them. Much like the first quarter, this largely shapes up as a battle between the specialists and singles players. Harrison-Skupski open against Cerundolo-Darderi. I don’t think you can rule out an upset with those two playing very well in limited action last year. That included a win over ATP Finals’ participants Harrison-King.
The survivor will see Diallo-King or Cobolli-Moutet. Both are making their debuts as doubles pairs. I give a slight edge to Diallo-King. Diallo had a rough year in 2025 in doubles, going 1-8, but he’s already doubled his win total in 2026 at 2-1. He teamed with Coleman Wong in Hong Kong to score a couple wins and all three matches he has played this year have gone to super tie breaks. With King as a partner, they could be something interesting to monitor.
The other half features (7)Cabral-Miedler. The 7th seeds are 10-5, but have been unable to match their Brisbane title run to start the season. They’ve won one and lost one in four straight tournaments. This isn’t an easy path for them with Cash-Tracy up first. The Americans are also stumbling a bit to start the season with opening match losses in four of six tournaments. When they have escaped round one, they have had decent runs with a third round finish at the Australian Open and a semifinal at Delray Beach. Expect a competitive battle in this one, perhaps a super tie break, and an upset being quite possible.
The match opposite this sees Aussies Alex de Minaur and John Peers squaring off against Andreozzi-Guinard. The Aussies have some limited experience together, but it’s been since five years since they last teamed up. Andreozzi-Guinard looked to have gotten on track with a pair of semifinal finishes during the South American clay court swing plus and upset of Harrison-Skupski in Acapulco. Then came the THUD. 6-1, 6-0 loss to Kirkov-Stevens after beating the Australian Open champs. They could easily be an unseeded menace that weaves their way to a semifinal … or they could be out in round one. That’s the problem right now with this pair; their consistency is hard to gauge.
This sets up as an intriguing quarter with both seeds struggling a bit coming into this tournament. That opens the door for one of the unseeded pairs to do damage. Could it be Cash-Tracy? Andreozzi-Guinard? Or is there a true surprise like Diallo-King waiting in the wings?
TOP HALF FORECAST
Even with some very strong seeds by name in this half, there are plenty of questions heading into this tournament. Granollers-Zeballos looked solid in Dallas in making the final in their first post-Australia tournament. The early draw is the question here along with their shaky history at Indian Wells. Krawietz-Puetz might be the seed set up for success if they can get it going quickly in round one. I might be overthinking Granollers-Zeballos’ vulnerability, but I am going to look past them. The second quarter to me looks like it could be ripe for upsets with some stronger unseeded pairs. I’m looking at Andreozzi-Guinard as the ultimate X-factor because they possess the talent to make a huge run, but also lack the consistency that could seem them go one and done. Thinking outside the box? See Diallo-King and perhaps Cash-Tracy if they can spring the early upset.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (5)Krawietz-Puetz vs Diallo-King
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
The defending champs (3)Arevalo-Pavic lead the bottom half of this quarter. They take on Djokovic-Tsitsipas in round one. Certainly both the Serb and Greek have had their share of doubles success at times, but being their first time pairing and going against a team that found a groove in Dubai, it will be tough. I still would not be surprised if they went the distance in this one, but Arevalo-Pavic have been sensational at avoiding opening defeats. Their last one and done came over a year ago in Dubai. It’s all singles pairs in their path with either Medvedev-Tien or Rinderknech-Vacherot waiting in round two. The trickiest match might be the three seed’s opener, but don’t sleep on Rinderknech-Vacherot who have a nice chemistry in spite of just a 1-4 career record together.
In the top half of the quarter, upsets could be the name of the game. (6)Nys/Roger-Vasselin desperately need a win after losing four of their first five this season. Khachanov-Rublev are not the easiest selection to get that win. The Russians may now be known as Hong Kong specialists after back-to-back finals in 2025 and 2026 there, but they still can show out at unexpected times. See Beijing last Fall. At minimum, I believe the Russians can take a set off the seeds and it’s definitely not a huge upset if they do win given Nys-ERV’s early issues getting wins. The other match in this quadrant pits Melo-Zverev against Auger-Aliassime/Korda. Felix and Seb have played together, including a super tie break loss in round one at Indian Wells two years ago. Korda certainly can get it done in doubles as last year’s finals’ run with Jordan Thompson proved. Melo-Zverev is a tough opener with that duo brimming with confidence after winning Acapulco. That said, you cannot overlook them losing eight of their nine openers in 2025. They’re a mixed bag in spite of that title run.
Arevalo-Pavic remain one of the most consistent pairs on tour with quarterfinals or better in 12 of their last 13 tournaments dating back to 2025. Finally getting back to a final last week in Dubai should have bolstered their confidence despite the loss as they had not been in a final since last May in Rome. They do play with small margins at times, so I would not expect anything less than set tie breaks and some super tie breaks along the path to perhaps another quarterfinal or better here in the desert. Getting past Djokovic-Tsitsipas is the match I think that lets them be looser moving forward. Nys/Roger-Vasselin will probably find themselves on the right side of the STBs sooner or later, but it’s hard to pick a team that’s having bad luck in those situations right now. Even if they did get through, Arevalo-Pavic had their number last year with wins in three of four clashes. Keep an eye on the Melo-Zverev/FAA-Korda winner as a dark horse type in this quarter.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter sees (2)Cash-Glasspool as the lead seeds. They found good form in the Middle East swing with a semifinal in Doha followed by the final in Dubai. The best news for them is that Heliovaara-Patten, who took them out of both tournaments, are not in California. Arends-Lehecka are the foes in round one. Lehecka showed promise in doubles last year at 10-5 with a finals loss in Brisbane with Mensik to Cash-Glasspool. He also paired with Tabillo here a year ago and helped craft the round one upset of Granollers-Zeballos. It may not be simple for Cash-Glasspool, but they’ve only lost one opener in five tournaments in 2026. Survival may not yield much relief with Bhambri-Goransson or Martin-Pel waiting next round. I touched on the danger Bhambri-Goransson can provide. Martin-Pel pair for the first time and are hard to project. You’re talking about two tall players with big serves who can dominate at times in that category, but seem to lack the consistency in that category too often. Still, if everything comes together, they can contend with about anyone I believe.
In the other half, (8)Johnson-Zielinski have a rough road to going deep in the desert. Their opener is Erler-Vavassori. I talked this pair up in the Unseeded Menaces section as one to watch. They could be a train wreck or they could be a masterpiece. We won’t know until we see them on court. Should the seeds survive and advance, round two will not be much easier. You’ve got vets Gonzalez-Molteni battling Arribage-Olivetti. Gonzalez-Moltenti have had a mediocre start (6-5), but did make the quarters here in 2025. Arribage-Olivetti win A LOT. They’re 16-4, but half those wins came indoors in back-to-back title runs in Montpelier and Dallas. They did also win outdoors in Auckland early in the season, so you can’t discount them in these type of tricky conditions. The “W” over Granollers-Zeballos in Dallas was huge for them and they competed well against Cash-Glasspool in Dubai, losing 10-4 in the super tie break. Spin the bottle in this half because I think any of these four duos could emerge as the quarterfinal participant.
Even though Cash-Glasspool seem the class of the quarter, I think this one is wide open. Cash-Glasspool would definitely be the pick among the seeds to get through if one does given the path Johnson-Zielinski must navigate. Still, I expect to see some “unexpected” results in this quarter. If Arribage-Olivetti can find their game and get through round one, they look the part of a surprise contender. I still think that Erler-Vavassori pairing could be one that surprises as well, so let’s see how it shakes out.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
The two consistent threats with the seeds here are (2)Cash-Glasspool and the defending champs, (3)Arevalo-Pavic. I would be a bit shocked if one of them isn’t a semifinal participant. My gut says Cash-Glasspool may be the ones who fall short. I see unseeded pairs each round who could challenge them. Arevalo-Pavic won’t have a simple route either, but I do think their path is slightly better. Keep your eyes on Arribage-Olivetti and that Martin-Pel/Bhambri-Goransson survivor as ones who might take down the 2nd seeded Brits.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Arevalo-Pavic vs Arribage-Olivetti
Is there another unseeded champion waiting to make their mark at Indian Wells? History says yes in these tricky conditions in the desert. Arribage-Olivetti are a team that isn’t going to hide from the public eye much longer. If you haven’t been paying attention, they are THIRD in the live rankings. Could this be their coming out party? I’m not sure they’re the best suited to the wind they could see at Indian Wells, but they certainly have proven capable of stepping up against the best of the best. Even though I don’t have them among my picks for the semifinals, Andreozzi-Guinard are another pair that have proven they can take down the top tier teams. It’s all about consistency for both those unseeded pairs and whether they can find it this week. Something still tingles for me about Erler-Vavassori too, but they seem a supreme long shot to start the week.
As for seeds, Arevalo-Pavic might be revving their engine at the right time after Dubai last week. I like their half of the draw, but Cash-Glasspool will have something to say if it comes down to those two seeds. Those two split matches in 2025 with Arevalo-Pavic winning on hard courts in Miami, while the Brits took the return match on clay in Monte-Carlo. Although I am overlooking Granollers-Zeballos, the two-time Grand Slam champs, could certainly prove me wrong and make the run. Krawietz-Puetz may not have a chance if they have to go through the top seeds who beat them four times in 2025. This figures to be a captivating start to the Sunshine Double with plenty of surprises likely. Enjoy the ride!
Arevalo-Pavic
Krawietz-Puetz
Arribage-Olivetti
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