INDIAN WELLS NEWS & NOTES
*Last year the desert saw a title run by unseeded pair Muhammad-Schuurs as they won the championship as 1.56 (-178) favorites over fellow unseeded menaces Mihalikova-Nicholls. That was the first all-unseeded ladies final at the BNP Paribas Open since 2016.
*The inclusion of an unseeded pair in the final itself should not have been a shock. Muhammad-Schuurs became the fifth unseeded pair to win the titles at Indian Wells in the last eight runs of the tournament. There has been an unseeded finalist in eight of the last nine finals in the desert. I will focus on this year’s potential party crashers in the UNSEEDED MENACES section below.
*The straight sets finish in the 2025 final marked the 7th to finish in straights out of the last eight. In spite of that finish in two sets, 15 of the 31 completed matches need a super tie break to settle last year. You don’t have to be a math whiz to know that is about half of the matches! A whopping ten of those came in the opening round. Only one came after the round of 16. The 2025 total dropped from nine STBs in both 2024 and 2023. The focus for super tie breaks, if you want to hunt them down, looks to be the first and second rounds with only four coming in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final over the last three years.
*Underdogs feasted for 13 wins in 2025. That included a pair of 3.00+ (2.00) wins in the semifinals. The majority of the u-dog damage came in round one with eight wins out of the 16 completed matches. Those all ranged between 2.20 (+120) and 2.98 (+198). Only two involved a seeded pair losing. 2025 was a nice spike upwards after just three underdogs scored wins in 2024. There were eight underdog wins in 2023. I can’t see any real pattern over the last few years regarding underdog wins as they seem to pop up out of nowhere.
*Despite the success of unseeded pairs finding their way to the final, seeds have done quite well early at avoiding upsets. Here is a look at how seeds have fared over the last five runs at Indian Wells:
Only two seeds dropped their openers last year and no more than three have gone one and done since 2022. That doesn’t mean they are all safe from an early upset as I will focus on in just a little bit.
*The field is led by top seeds Errani-Paolini who are mired in a bit of a slump to start 2026. The Italians are just 3-3 and have only won consecutive matches at one of the three tournaments they’ve played. Last year, they were round one upset victims in their Indian Wells debut. The second seeds are a pair on the rise in Dabrowski-Stefani. They are a sizzling 12-2 so far in 2026 and come in off their first title of the season in Dubai. Rounding out the top four seeds are Siniakova-Townsend and Mertens-Zhang. Siniakova-Townsend haven’t paired since losing in the Australian Open quarterfinals pretty handedly, while Mertens-Zhang got their first post-Australia match in Dubai, an opening match loss to Olmos-Pegula. Among the other seeds, (5)Danilina-Krunic still need to be mentioned. They have been the most consistent pair on tour with five tournaments played this year that have resulted in three semifinals and two finals. They got their first title of the season in Doha a few weeks back and figure to be part of the mix for titles in the desert.
I talked them up earlier. Unseeded pairs are on a “heater” in Indian Wells with five unseeded title winners here in the last eight runs of the BNP Paribas Open. So who stands out as pairs who could join that club?
Guo-Mladenovic/Noskova-Shnaider
If you’re looking for a big time long shot, Noskova-Shnaider could be a pair to watch. They played a half dozen times together in 2024 with a semifinal run in Cincinnati as their best result. That included a win over Errani-Paolini. Guo-Mladenovic already proved their worth in Auckland by opening 2026 with a title run, but they have yet to match that in their last two tournaments. Still, they’ve got everything it takes and their part of the draw looks open to an unseeded dark horse type pair.
Kessler-Pegula
They had a harsh draw for their team debut back at the Australian Open, where they lost to Dabrowski-Stefani 6-4, 7-6. Pegula got in more doubles reps in Dubai with Olmos where they upset Mertens-Zhang and lost to Dabrowski-Stefani 14-12 in a super tie break. I get the feeling this pair could get tougher as the tournament goes on, but you also have to factor in potential singles fatigue that could limit their opportunity.
Hunter-Joint
The two Aussies have paired twice this season with a third round finish at the Australian Open and a quarterfinal in Doha. Both runs were ended by Danilina-Krunic, so that’s good company to keep in a loss. They’ll bang heads with Perez-Schuurs again to start, a pair they beat in Doha in a super tie break. If they can escape the opening round, watch out.
Kichenok-Krawczyk/Mihalikova-Nicholls
You’ve got the surprise 2025 runners-up in Mihalokova-Nicholls and a pair in Kichenok-Krawczyk that has been solid so far in 2026. Mihalikova-Nicholls run hot and cold, so it’s difficult to predict them from week to week. I’d side with Kichenok-Krawczyk as the likelier to emerge from this round one clash, but it could come down to a super tie break. Four of their six matches in 2026 have needed the extra frame (3-1). Whomever survives could be a force as the tournament goes on, but they will have to score some big upsets. See round two likely against Danilina-Krunic.
Andreeva-Mboko
This may be the most fascinating unseeded pair in the draw. These two singles starts have shown plenty in doubles play in their young careers. We’d seen Andreeva pairing with Shnaider until this season to some great results, while Mboko is getting more reps and showing more doubles prowess. She teamed with Jovic in Australia, nearly knocking off Mertens-Zhang in a third set tie break in round two. More recently, it was Coco Gauff as her partner with the two falling 11-9 in a super tie break against Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez in Doha. They may likely be gone in a flash with Mertens-Zhang up first, but if things click, there’s a chance they destroy part of the bracket in round one.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Revisiting our graphic from earlier, seeds generally have done a good job avoiding the early upsets in Indian Wells recently. That said, outside of 2024 when there were zero seeded upsets in round one, there has normally been a few seeds getting eliminated in their openers. Here are the ones that have the tougher match-ups to start and could be in danger from the opening ball.
(4)Mertens-Zhang
I am not calling the 2026 Australian Open “flashes-in-the-pan” or anything like that, but having just one match together since that achievement is not optimal. Going against a pair of crushers like Andreeva-Mboko in round one is going to be interesting. The seeds will need to be tactically sound I think with the two singles stars likely to be hitting big and going for big winners over tactics at times. Which way wins?
(6)Muhammad-Routliffe
They enter Indian Wells on a four match losing skid and have lost their opener four times already in 2026. They match up against vets Panova-Siegemund in round one. Those two have not paired since 2019, but both are used to revolving partners from week-to-week. I don’t think that’s an issue where and would expect they’ll have a real shot to score the win in round one.
(8)Perez-Schuurs
It is a harsh early draw as they meet Hunter-Joint for the second time this season. The seeds have yet to lose an opener in five tournaments, but this against the Aussies who already own a win against them. That came in Doha 6-3, 6-7(8), 10-4. This is going to be a BANGER in round one. Revenge may help them avoid defeat, but Hunter-Joint certainly enter this as a pair fully capable of taking them down again.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
First Quarter
The two seeds in this quarter are not in the best form, but there does look to be an opportunity for one of them to get their season going in the right direction. That would be (1)Errani-Paolini for me. The Italians have struggled for momentum, but this set up should afford them a shot to at least get to a quarterfinal. They get first timers Cristian-Tauson to start. That’s a better early draw for the Italians than they saw in Dubai when they faced Zvonareva-Siegemund and got crushed in round one.
Should they survive, it’s either Bencic-Cirstea or Xu-Yang in round two. Xu-Yang have lost five of their last six since making the Auckland final. This is Bencic-Cirstea’s first time pairing together and Bencic will play her first doubles match since 2024. She has usually been pretty solid when she plays, so this figures to be interesting. Cirstea played more doubles last year after a surprise success story with Kalinskaya in Madrid, but is back to play very little with just one doubles match in 2026. Oddsmakers have this as an even match-up, so seeing Bencic-Cirstea win should not be a surprise result to most. Given the relative slump of Errani-Paolini, the winner of this one could push for a win in round two.
In the other half, (6)Muhammad-Rouliffe desperately need a win. Their new partnership has yet to find a groove. It’s not as if they’re getting trucked routinely with six of their nine matches going the distance. The most important match for them is the first. End that losing streak first when you battle Panova-Siegemund and then maybe you can get it going. I would not expect an easy time of it for the six seeds. The match opposite theirs is a banger in waiting with Guo-Mladenovic against Noskova-Shnaider. Guo-Mladenovic were disappointing in Merida in an opening match loss, but perhaps that can be attributed to the break from Australia. They did win Auckland and made round three of the Australian Open. Noskova-Shnaider are the underdogs in this one, but certainly possess the skills to hassle the specialists in this one. Coin flip for me with the survivor definitely having their sites set on a quarterfinal with this set up.
I think if a seed makes the quarters it is Errani-Paolini, but that’s definitely not set in stone. The bottom half looks like absolute chaos. You can probably make a case for any of the four pairs getting through to a quarterfinal. For me, I am looking at the survivor of that Guo-Mladenovic/Noskova-Shnaider match.
Second Quarter
The top half of this quarter houses (3)Siniakova-Townsend. It’s their first tournament together since Australia, but that likely won’t mean much. They made the semifinals here a year ago and Townsend comes in hot off the Austin titles with Storm Hunter. Siniakova paired with both Krejcikova and Hunter in two tournaments since Australia, so there will be a little be of a reconnect required. I don’t expect round one against Raducanu-Ruse will be an issue, but round two may prove a bit tougher. McNally-Samsonova or Alexandrova-Kenin will be waiting. Both are first time pairings, but I think both will be tricky outs. Their first rounder could be an underrated one to watch depending on how chemistry develops for both. I’m still penciling in Siniakova-Townsend for the quarterfinals at-minimum.
In the bottom half, (8)Perez-Schuurs are up against an unseeded menace in Hunter-Joint. The last three losses for the seeds have involved a pair with either Hunter or Joint in it, so that could be a bad omen. The winner of that one is going to see either Kessler-Pegula or Hozumi-Wu in round two. I’m definitely on the Americans to be that duo with Hozumi-Wu having lost three straight, including both matches after their surprise Australian Open quarterfinal run. I like that Kessler-Pegula know each other’s games already from pairing up early in the year and Pegula seems locked in right now in both singles and doubles. There’s a potential BANGER ALERT for an unseeded blockbuster between the Americans and Aussies (Hunter-Joint) in round two depending on how things shake out.
You can definitely see the potential for some of the unseeded pairs in this half to make a run. Siniakova-Townsend didn’t look like world beaters down under this year, so there might be some questions about how they’ll fare here. Their set up still looks better than Perez-Schuurs as far as making the quarterfinals. I’m keeping my eyes on Hunter-Joint in the bottom half, but Kessler-Pegula should be right there with them in a big for the last eight. The one aspect to keep your eyes on here are the players who are also playing singles with both Townsend and Hunter through qualifying into the main draw. Fatigue may well catch up to some of them.
TOP HALF FORECAST
Siniakova-Townsend seem like the only seeded pair in this half that might be worthy of “trust” in selecting them as at least a quarterfinalist. You can make the case against the other seeds, I think especially Muhammad-Routliffe and Perez-Schuurs due to their draws. Errani-Paolini could be a wild card as the top seeds, which is an odd thing to say, right? They haven’t done a lot yet in 2026, but they could wind up in the semifinals if things fall right this tournament. There are plenty of unseeded pairs that will likely spice things up like Guo-Mladenovic, Kessler-Pegula and Hunter-Joint. I would be stunned to not see one in the semifinals in this half.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (1)Errani-Paolini vs Kessler-Pegula
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
It’s (4)Mertens-Zhang and (5)Danilina-Krunic as the seeds in this quarter. Starting with Mertens-Zhang, one has to look straight to their opener as a potential pitfall for the Australian Open champs. Yes, Andreeva and Mboko have no history together, but they are that combination of power and speed that can destroy superior tactics if the execution is off. Mertens-Zhang will need some patience in this one and could come through if they execute a proper game plan to frustrate the singles starts. I am excited to see Andreeva and Mboko though as they could be devastating if things click. The winner should be favored to advance in round two with Eala-Jovic or Baptiste-Ostapenko waiting. Eala-Jovic did score a couple wins in Auckland to start the season, so they will have the chemistry edge. Watching a new partner for Ostapenko is always an experience. You never know when things might work out, but they could also blow up quickly. A win for Mertens-Zhang to start would be a great confidence boost and also perhaps give them the reps they need to beat more “singles pairs” as they move forward in Indian Wells.
The other half finds the queens of consistency in Danilina-Krunic. They are still #1 in the live rankings, nearly 1,000 points in front of Dabrowski-Stefani. Round one could be slightly tricky with Stephens-Vekic up first. Danilina-Krunic have dropped a set three times in their openers this season out of five tournaments played. Both straight sets wins required a set tie break in the result, so their matches are usually a bit tight. They should still get by and into round two. That’s where a tougher match could await with the winner between Kichenok-Krawczyk and Mihalikova-Nicholls. Give me Kichenok-Krawczyk in that one, but it’s truly a 50-50 type match. That would set up a repeat of the Dubai QFs where Danilina-Krunic prevailed 6-1, 4-6, 10-6 over Kichenok-Krawczyk. Danilina-Krunic have played a few pairs multiple times in 2026 already. They have been good at winning two in a row. Can Kichenok-Krawczyk change that?
You pick against Danilina-Krunic at your own peril this season. An all-seeded quarterfinal would yield a repeat of the Australian Open final against Mertens-Zhang. You’d think that Danilina-Krunic would relish a chance to revisit that and reverse the result. There are some pairs in the way of that happening with Kichenok-Krawczyk as perhaps the best shot to me of preventing it.
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw houses the red hot (2)Dabrowski-Stefani who broke through with their first title of 2026 in Dubai. I like this quarter for them. In their half, it is Eikeri-Jiang first-up. I don’t envision a lot of issues for the seeds in that one. They should move on to round two. It’s either Neel-Stearns or Kato-Stollar in that spot. Kato-Stollar have the experience edge against their first time opponents, but they’ve lost their opener in four of five tournaments in 2026. So, not so fast. Neel-Stearns could step up and grab a win, but in either case, Dabrowski-Stefani look the proper pick for the quarterfinals.
To the top half where (7)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez are the seeds. It’s been a decent start for that pair in 2026 at 5-4. They did make the quarters in Doha and narrowly lost out on another in Dubai (16-14) to Kichenok-Krawczyk. All their losses have come to pairs where you look at it and say, okay, that’s a loss, but we got beat by a good team. That doesn’t pay the rent though and they’ll be seeking better here in Indian Wells. They might just get it with a nice draw early. They open with Jurak-Olmos, who pair for the first time. Jurak came out of retirement after not playing since 2022. So far, she has nothing to show for it at 0-3. The 41-year-old will be with her third partner in four events. Opposite of this, it’s first timers Chan-Tjen battling Klepac-Piter. Klepac also returned this year for the first time since 2022 and has captured three wins in seven matches. If you’ve followed doubles long enough, you know that Jurak and Klepac used to be a formidable doubles duo about five years ago. This is the third straight tournament with Piter as her partner, so the chemistry is growing and I’d fancy them to survive that opener.
I think when you peruse this quarter, it’s harder to find an unseeded pair that would prevent an all-seeded battle in the quarterfinals. It’s also impossible for me to go against Dabrowski-Stefani right now no matter who they may play in this quarter. They’re in tune together and the results are speaking volumes right now about what this pair can be by the end of 2026. For me, I would not be surprised if Grand Slam champions was wording we use with them at some point this season.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
This bottom half is LOADED with top tier seeded talent. Dabrowski-Stefani come in as the champions in Dubai last week. Mertens-Zhang won the first Grand Slam of 2026. And then there are Danilina-Krunic, the top ranked pair in the WTA. I think this half also features fewer unseeded pairs that look capable of big run. I do look to Kichenok-Krawczyk as ones to watch, but they might have to go through all three of the previously mentioned seeds to get to a final. That’s a tall ask. Perhaps we are in store for Dabrowski-Stefani versus Danilina-Krunic, Volume Four. You may not be paying attention, but that just might be the best rivalry in doubles right now. Danilina-Krunic are 2-1, but Dabrowski-Stefani beat them in Dubai and two of three matches have gone the distance. Sign me up for a fourth clash in Indian Wells!
SEMIFINAL PIX: (5)Danilina-Krunic vs (2)Dabrowski-Stefani
The first leg of the Sunshine Double offers plenty of promise to pairs looking to rise up the rankings as well as one-offs looking to make a statement. Muhammad-Schuurs used their championship here a year ago as the catalyst to making the year-end WTA Finals in spite of just one more title after Indian Wells. That’s what 1,000 points can do for you. There are several pairs in the current rankings who would love to make hay this week:
It’s unlikely anyone catches Danilina-Krunic for the top spot, but the gap can certainly be cut, especially if one of the teams right behind them grabs the trophy. I think this is a huge opportunity for Dabrowski-Stefani. It is a chance to continue building their momentum and rise to what I believe may ultimately end up being them in that top spot in the rankings. Obviously it would be massive if Danilina-Krunic are able to take home the trophies as they could put a lot of space between themselves and the field. A title run here for the 5th seeds would likely put one foot in the door for them to be back at the WTA Finals at year’s end.
I do believe the bottom half of this draw will yield the eventual champion. That’s where the heavy hitters are amongst the doubles specialists. While there may be a surprise unseeded pair involved in the business end of this tournament, I am expecting a seed to rise to the top this year.
Dabrowski-Stefani
Kessler-Pegula
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