DUBAI NEWS & NOTES
*2025 was a stunning final with unseeded pair Bhambri-Popyrin knocking off (2)Heliovaara-Patten 3-6, 7-6(12), 10-8. The champs were 2.68 (+168) underdogs in the championship match. Their win marked the fifth straight run in Dubai where an underdog won the final. It was also the third straight year that an unseeded pair took home the titles. All three of those pairs have included one singles player.
*The super tie break finish was the third in the last four finals in Dubai. Overall last year, there were nine super tie break finishes out of the 15 completed matches. Four came in round one with two quarterfinals, both semifinals and the final going the distance. The overall tally was up slightly from seven STBs in 2024 and just five in 2023. Round one is a great place to focus if you’re hunting these down with eleven of the last 24 finishing with a super tie break. Semifinals are also a solid landing spot with four of the last five years seeing at least one STB in a semifinal match.
*With the success of unseeded pairs making the finals, you’d expect that they have done well overall in making it deep in Dubai. Last year, three of the four semifinalists were not seeded. The last three years have seen multiple unseeded semifinalists at this tournament. It’s a virtual guarantee that we will see an unseeded semifinal pair again this year. 2008, yes 2008, was the last time there was an all-seeded final four in Dubai. We will focus on what unseeded pairs will be in that mix this year in just a bit.
*As one would expect with the unseeded success, seeds have had a tendency to go one and done at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. Last year, it was the top seeds falling in their opener to run the streak to four years in a row where at least one seed has gone one and done. Here is a look at how the seeds have fared in their openers in recent times in Dubai:
*This year’s Dubai field is led by Cash-Glasspool who come in off their 2nd final of 2026 in Doha. They are now 0-2 in finals after losing to Heliovaara-Patten last week. This will be their second trip to Dubai where they lost in the quarterfinals last season to eventual champs Bhambri-Popyrin. Arevalo-Pavic arrive as the two seeds. It has been a similar run of decent, but not superb results for them in 2026. Three quarters and a semifinal in four tournaments played, but they still stand without a final since last May in Rome. Rounding out the seeded field are Heliovaara-Patten and Bolelli-Vavassori. Heliovaara-Patten are in fresh of a title run in Doha and have a pair of titles to show for 2026. The fourth seeded Italians followed up their Rotterdam championships with a semifinal push in Doha. All four of the seeds played here a year ago with Heliovaara-Patten doing the most damage in making the final.
With the success of seeds in winning this title over the past three years, surely it is a wise idea to peruse the unseeded field for contenders. Here are the ones that stand out with a shot to make it into the finals mix in 2026.
Arribage-Olivetti
I talked these guys up at the Australian Open, but the magic was not there in Melbourne. Truly the indoor environment may be their best as they won back-to-back titles in Montpellier and Dallas, but I think they are dangerous here regardless. They may need help to have a realistic shot at winning the whole thing, but don’t discount the confidence boost they got from beating Granolers-Zeballos in Dallas. They crashed out in the quarters in Delray Beach last week, but that extra rest may help.
Nouza-Rikl/Griekspoor-Rinderknech
Nouza-Rikl are no longer a secret after stunning Heliovaara-Patten at the Australian Open en route to their first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Last week in Doha, they narrowly lost out to Arevalo-Pavic in round one 7-6, 7-6. At their best, they can be a real nuisance. Whether that would be good enough to potentially emerge as a semifinalist over Bolelli-Vavassory remains to be seen. As for Griekspoor-Rinderknech, it’s really just a guess. Two singles players who could work through on serve alone can always be dangerous.
Cabral-Miedler
It’s been fairly mediocre for this pair after a bright start to the season that saw them win the Brisbane titles. Still, they have the chemistry and ability to be draw destroyers. They have marquee wins over Cash-Glasspool this year and Granollers-Zeballos last season. Arevalo-Pavic may be in their path, but that is a pairing that I’ve repeatedly told you has struggled to push past semifinals. Cabral-Miedler may get a shot at the two seeds and I still think they’re a pair that can be in the title hunt most weeks when the field is a bit soft.
Ho-Jebens
The surprise Rotterdam finalists really have to be on the list of unseeded menaces most weeks at this point. Wins over Bolelli-Vavassori in Australia and Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Arevalo-Pavic in Rotterdam are hard to look past. They may be a pair that has trouble matching that magical run in Rotterdam, but they look the part of a pair that is going to be a tough out most weeks and can put a scare into the best of the best.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
As laid out earlier, there has been at least one seeded pair to go down in their opener for four straight years in Dubai. With that in mind, is there another seeded pair or more that could join that club?
(1)Cash-Glasspool
A Doha hangover from a finals’ loss and a propensity to play tight sets could equal an early exit for the Brits. They take on Pavlasek-Smith in their opener. Those two may have lost three straight dating back to the Australian Open third round, but they’ve been very competitive. They took a set in Dallas off champs Arribage-Olivetti and another set off Bolelli-Vavassori last week in an opening loss in Doha. They may not get the W in this one, but I would expect it to be close regardless and perhaps they at least make the Brits sweat out a super tie break to survive.
(3)Heliovaara-Patten
They may be the hottest pair coming in, but they are battling Bhambri-Goransson in their starter. That is the same duo that knocked them out of Indian Wells in round two in 2025. Bhambri-Goransson are 5-5 in 2026, but are void of a signature win over a top tier team this year. Could this be the spot for that?
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
The first quarter is intriguing with (1)Cash-Glasspool leading the charge. They found a bit of a groove last week, but they’ve got two finals as the bread in a sandwich that showed some vulnerability in between. That included the one and done in Adelaide and the early exit in round two at the Australian Open. I expect Pavlasek-Smith to provide a stern test in round one. Survival may not make life much easier for Cash-Glasspool with Arribage-Olivetti potentially on-deck. The Dallas champs open against qualifiers Nedunchezhiyan-Ramanathan. They do get the advantage of match play in these conditions, so it could still be a battle in round one. Arribage-Olivetti are 15-3 this year with the titles on this surface in Auckland as the highlight outdoors. Indoors, they won two titles, but Dubai doesn’t provide those pristene conditions. That could be the mitigating factor in whether or not Arribage-Olivetti can be contenders.
The second quarter sees (3)Heliovaara-Patten coming in hot off the Doha titles. They’ve won a pair of titles outdoors this season and seem to be mostly in-tune as they look to make the final again here in Dubai. It won’t be easy with Bhambri-Goransson up first. Bhambri-Goransson have played pretty well this season, but we have not seen them step up against the top tier pairs so far. This is a chance to do that against the three seeds. In the match opposite this one, Ho-Jebens will be expected to work past Bublik-Shang. Bublik has lost ten straight doubles matches dating back to 2024, while Shang is 0-11 lifetime. It would be a monumental upset with Ho-Jebens having the chemistry. Overall, I still think it’s hard to look past Heliovaara-Patten in this quarter, but there are a couple of capable pairs. The best thing for the three seeds is they have been avoiding the perils of super tie breaks with only one (1-0) in eight matches in that format this season.
TOP HALF FORECAST
Do we get a replay of last week’s Doha final in the semifinals? Cash-Glasspool versus Heliovaara-Patten? It is certainly possible, but given the history in Dubai and the number of competent unseeded pairs in these two quarters, I’ll side with no. I’m looking at Pavlasek-Smith or Bhambri-Goransson to ruin the seeded semifinal party in this half. I do think Heliovaara-Patten stay on a roll at least into the semifinals.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Pavlasek-Smith vs (3)Heliovaara-Patten
BOTTOM HALF
On paper, (4)Bolelli-Vavassori look to be too classy for the field in their quarter. Yet, I do think they will face some tough matches in this quarter. That could start in round one with wild cards Balaji-Oberlein. Who, you might be saying? If you check in on Challengers, you will know them. They are 14-3 in 2026 with three titles. They are only 1-2 in ATP main draw matches, but they certainly have the chemistry to take advantage of any lulls from the Italians. I’m still on board with the seeds advancing. The other side of the quarter pits Nouza-Rikl against Griekspoor-Rinderknech.
Remember I said to start this preview that the unseeded pairs who have won here the last three years featured at least one singles player. Could Griekspoor-Rinderknech be a pair to watch? While they have never paired, both do get reps in doubles. Griekspoor made round three at the Australian Open paired with van de Zandschulp. Rinderknech is 0-2 this year, but he proved tough last year with a lot of his doubles matches going the distance. Given that this could be a serve-centric type of match, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the singles guys could carve out the slight upset.
To the final quarter where (2)Arevalo-Pavic seek to find that break out spot. They remain consistent and three of their four losses this year have come in super tie breaks. That alone though tells some of the story as they have played five matches out of eleven that have gone the distance. Arends-Arneodo should be a good draw for them in round one as they have gone just 2-6 this season, 0-5 at ATP main draws. Expect to see Arevalo-Pavic in the quarterfinals. Cabral-Miedler square off with lucky losers Drzewiecki-Matuszewski in the other match in round one in this quarter. The Polish pair has plenty of experience to draw on, but they have just one ATP main draw win in the their careers together. It may be close though as they split Challenger matches on clay wuth Cabral-Miedler last year, but I think Cabral-Miedler survive. That could set up a blockbuster quarterfinal with the two seeds that should have some upset potential.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
When is it going to be Arevalo-Pavic’s time to break that finals/title drought? Even though Cabral-Miedler could be dangerous, you have to like the two seeds path in their quarter. Could they get another crack at Bolelli-Vavassori who have taken them down twice in super tie breaks, including last week in Doha? I think an all-seeded showdown is more likely in this half, but still not a given. I feel like Bolelli-Vavassori may find trouble in their own quarter first, but I’d still take Arevalo-Pavic in that third clash of 2026 if it goes down. Keep an eye on that Nouza-Rikl/Griekspoor-Rinderknech survivor in this half as a dark horse.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Griekspoor-Rinderknech vs (2)Arevalo-Pavic
Heliovaara-Patten enter this week as the team to beat as they look to build on the momentum from last week’s Doha title run. There are plenty of twists and turns that could get in their way, but they still look like a good pick. They own a two match win streak now against Cash-Glasspool after the all-British pair had beaten them the first four times the two pairs met. The one unseeded pair that may be the ultimate neutralizer here is Arribage-Olivetti. There is confidence with this pair, but the consistency of their play is also iffy at-times due to serve difficulties.
As for the other half, I am the dum-dum who would go with Arevalo-Pavic if you like a seed this week. They aren’t far off from getting that monkey off their backs, but until they make a final, it’s really hard to pick them to even get that far in Dubai. I’m going with the winner of that Nouza-Rikl/Griekspoor-Rinderknech match as the surprise finalist. It’s usually a tough ask for two singles players pairing up to go deep in tournaments, but with both scuffling a bit in singles play, perhaps double duty doesn’t really come into play.
Heliovaara-Patten
Griekspoor-Rinderknech
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