MIAMI NEWS & NOTES
*The Miami Open was the scene of the Russian power duo Andreeva-Shnaider’s biggest title. They were unseeded last year when they defeated fellow unseeded pair Bucsa-Kato 6-3, 6-7(5), 10-2 as 1.30 (-333) favorites. The win marked the third time in the last four years in Miami that an unseeded pair took the titles.
*The super tie break finish was the second straight at this event after the final had not seen a super tie break needed since 2014! As for the 2025 tournament as a whole, there were nine super tie break finishes out of 30 completed matches (30%). Five came in round one with the quarterfinals producing two more for the only rounds with multiple STBs. That was down from 16 super tie break finishes in 2024. Seven of those came in round one and there were three quarterfinals that also needed the extra frame to settle. Dating back to 2022, those have been the two rounds that have been the breeding grounds for super tie breaks.
*With the success of unseeded pairs in recent times, have underdogs done well? Last year’s run produced eight underdog wins. The largest score came in the semifinals at 3.88 (+288) when Bucsa-Kato upset top seeds Siniakova-Townsend. The majority of the hits (4) came in round one. That was down from ten underdog wins in 2024 where six of the u-dog wins hit for 3.00 (+200) or better with a monster 5.56 (+456) when Kruger-Stephens toppled (5)Gauff-Pegula. 2023 had seven underdog wins, so it seems like Miami is a very modest spot to hunt down u-dogs.
*Seeds have had enough trouble just getting as far as the semifinals in Miami. Each of the last two runs in Florida, there has been just one seeded team in the final four. 2017 was the last time there were at least three seeded semifinal pairs, so it’s probably a good idea to look at the unseeded field for contenders again. I’ll focus on that just below in the UNSEEDED MENACES section.
*The big story to follow this week will be Siniakova-Townsend. Can they complete the Sunshine Double? The last time a WTA pair won both Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back was Sania Mirza and Martina Hingis back in 2015. The twist is that they are stuck in the same quarter as their 2026 nemesis Danilina-Krunic. Their win over the current #1 ranked pair in the Indian Wells final was their first against them after dropping the first two. They could be headed for another BANGER in the quarterfinals that may have a lot to say with who takes home the titles in Miami.
As I brought up early on, unseeded pairs have been superb in Miami over the last four years. Three champions in that span have been unseeded, so let’s take a look to see who could provide another surprise in 2026.3.19
Siegemund-Zvonareva
They stick out like a sore thumb because of their success already in 2026. They’ve paired just twice, but one of those resulted in a finals run in Dubai. They beat Hunter-Siniakova and Errani-Paolini during that run. They’re in the quarter with Errani-Paolini and a struggling Muhammad-Routliffe, so there should be opportunities for a surprise.
Fernandez-Williams
They missed out on playing at Indian Wells due to a freaking clerical error by the tournament of all things. They don’t miss the chance in Venus’ adopted home state. They’ve paired once before and it was pleasant with a quarterfinal run at last year’s US Open. They may not match up well with some of the top tier talent, but they too are in that Errani-Paolini quarter with Muhammad-Routliffe up first. A win there and they could be off on another magical run.
Mihalikova-Nicholls
This pair is so hard to predict, but this feels like one of those spots where they ride in with low expectations and perhaps one of their sudden stunner runs awaits. They too are in that Errani-Paolini quarter. Am I being redundant enough with what I think of that quarter already?
Hunter-Pegula
An intriguing first time pairing to watch. This is partner number three for Pegula in 2026. It didn’t quite work out for her and Kessler last week in a tough opening loss at Indian Wells. Hunter is with her fourth partner and when she last played, she won the Austin titles with Taylor Townsend. They have to be classified as boom or bust due to their lack of previous experience, but like most of the menaces, if they can secure a first round one, confidence can take over.
Brady-McNally
This is Brady’s first doubles match since 2023. Don’t sleep on the possibilities here though as Brady made the US Open semifinals in that last doubles tournament. McNally has shown plenty of prowess on the doubles court, it’s really a matter of if there is any chemistry between the two Americans. They’re in a tough quarter, but also one where the seeds don’t seem unbeatable at the moment. If there’s a real shocker this week, this might be the team that provides some of those moments.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
We’ve seen multiple seeded upsets in round one dating back to 2018 in Miami. It would very much be against the grain if less than two seeds were bounced in their openers.
Here’s a look at the seeds who look the most prone to packing their bags early.
(1)Errani-Paolini
Even though the top seeds found some good form last week in Indian Wells, they have been pressed in their openers in Miami each of the two years they’ve stopped here. Both round one excursions ended in super tie break wins for the Italians. Aoyama-Eikeri will only be playing their 2nd career match together, but they showed enough chemistry to believe that anything less than a solid showing from the top seeds could see another STB decide their fate.
(4)Mertens-Zhang
One loss after a long layoff from winning a Grand Slam was no big deal. Two in a row? Perhaps there is some cause for concern after Mertens-Zhang dropped their opener in Indian Wells to Andreeva-Mboko, who were making their debut as a pair. This week it’s Chan-Tjen who will play together for the 2nd time after debuting together in Indian Wells. They split two matches, losing in a super tie break to Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez in round two. I do think Mertens-Zhang are too good to be mired in a slump for too long but until they emerge, you have to keep an eye on them.
(6)Muhammad-Routliffe
Might another loss for the seeds be the end of their “new” partnership here in 2026? It’s five straight losses following them to Miami with four of those being opening match losses. If Miami is #5 in a row with an opening loss, you get the feeling a change might be on the horizon for these two. Getting Fernandez-Williams in round one is going to be tough you’d think.
(8)Perez-Schuurs
I toyed with not including the 8th seeds on this list as they play Andreeva-Mboko, who might be due some regression after a nice showing at Indian Wells (QFs) with their two wins coming in super tie breaks. Still, there is enough talent amongst those two to where this could be a difficult matchup. Perez-Schuurs haven’t lost an opener this year in six tournaments.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
This first quarter looks like it could be a wild ride. The two seeded pairs are (1)Errani-Paolini and (6)Muhammad-Routliffe. The top seeds made the semifinals in their Miami debut in 2024, but crashed out in round two a year ago. I do think their early draw is workable with Aoyama-Eikeri up first and then perhaps Mihalikova-Nicholls in round two. The Italians scored some nice wins in Indian Wells, but were stomped out by Siniakova-Townsend 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinals. Do remember that two of their previous three tournaments this season resulted in the Italians not working past round two.
The bottom of the quarter should be chock full of fun with UNSEEDED MENACES around every corner. It starts for Muhammad-Routliffe with Fernandez-Williams. Given the struggles of the seeds to find the win column, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be fortunate if they survive the opening round. Even if they do, they could be up against an even more formidable team in Siegemund-Zvonareva in round two. I expect that veteran duo to work past Kato-Yang who are teaming for the first time. Whatever combination of pairs goes down in round two in this quadrant, it should be a whole lot of fun. I’m on board the Fernandez-Williams train this week.
To the second quarter where (4)Mertens-Zhang are seeking their first win since Australia as the lead the top half. The Australian Open champs square off with Chan-Tjen in round one. I think that’s the big one for the #4 seeds. They need that win to get their confidence back. I do think it’s just a matter of time before they get back on track. Will it be this week? Getting that opener would be huge with wild cards Brady-McNally or Jurak-Olmos waiting next. That’s an advantageous set up either way. Brady is a fun story, back playing for the first time since 2023. She’s got some singles under her belt, but this will be her first doubles match since she made the US Open semifinals with Stefani back in 2023. I’m not suggesting they’re going to win even a match here, BUT if they gel and win in round one, I do think they can be dangerous.
In the bottom half, (8)Perez-Schuurs battle Andreeva-Mboko in the first round. The two singles stars with a bit of a revelation in the desert last week as they scored a couple of wins. They were a pair I highlighted in last week’s UNSEEDED MENACES, but left out this week. Why? Both their wins came in super tie breaks against teams that don’t have the same pedigree as some of the pairs they could face this week. That starts with Perez-Schuurs in round one. I think we’ll know more about this pair after that one. If they score the upset, then they might just have that menace in ‘em. The match opposite theirs finds another intriguing unseeded pair in Hunter-Pegula. It’s Li-Linette in round one. Those two are also pairing for the first time, so it’s a legit shot for Hunter-Pegula to work out the kinks and grab a win. They’re the ones to watch in this section for me.
TOP HALF FORECAST
This is the half that feels like it can breed the surprises that Miami has been used to seeing in the women’s doubles draw the last few years. Siegemund-Zvonareva. Fernandez-Williams. Brady-McNally. Hunter-Pegula. I do believe one of those four could find themselves in the final. Hunter-Pegula are the ones I am gonna rank as the top of the unseeded menaces with Fernandez-Williams just behind them. If a seed is able to put it together in this half, who does it? You can make a case that Errani-Paolini have a pretty nice path to the quarterfinals. The quarters may be their toughest test, but I do think no matter who it is, they’ll have a shot. I think Mertens-Zhang are the other obvious ones to watch among the seeds. They’re going to find themselves sooner or later and be a threat again. Despite all the perceived danger I have mentioned, at their best, they are the class of this half of the draw. It’s a matter of finding the win column. Do recall that they did pair here in 2025 and made the quarterfinals.
SEMIFINAL PIX: Fernandez-Williams vs Hunter-Pegula
BOTTOM HALF
(3)Dabrowski-Stefani lead the third quarter. They were “cooled off” in Indian Wells by being stopped in the quarterfinals. That was their first tournament in 2026 where they didn’t make at least the semifinals. They’re in line perhaps for some redemption if seeds hold with (7)Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez on the opposite side of this quarter. That was the pair that knocked them out in Indian Wells last week. The three seeds get Noskova-Shnaider to start this week. They’ve played some together and lost a super tie break opener to Guo-Mladenovic in Indian Wells. I don’t doubt they put up a good fight in this one, but I’ll still take the consistency of Dabrowski-Stefani. This half sets up reasonably well for them with either Parks-Stephens or Alexandrova-Stollar up in round two.
To the other half of the third quarter where Bucsa-MM open with Kenin-Samsonova. Bucsa-MM lost their opener in Adelaide, but haven’t stumbled early in the four tournaments they’ve paired in since that loss. They still play a fair amount of “deciders” with seven of their 13 matches in 2026 going the distance. They’re now 4-3 in those matches after winning two STBs in Indian Wells. I’ll take them to get to round two where it may be Baptiste-Stearns waiting. The Americans played in Melbourne and won a pair of matches there before losing in the third round. If they go against Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez that will easily be the best team they’ve had to face this season. I wouldn’t out it out of the realm of possibilities to see an upset but Bucsa-MM have been a pretty steady pair in 2026. Their losses have mostly been to the upper tier of doubles pairs. Put me down to get a repeat of Dabrowski-Stefani and Bucsa-MM this week.
To the final quarter where two of the best will be on display with (2)Siniakova-Townsend and (5)Danilina-Krunic stuck in the same quarter. They could be on a collision course to play for the third time already in 2026. It would be the rubber match for this season, but Danilina-Krunic lead the H2H overall at 2-1 after the Indian Wells win for Siniakova-Towsend. Starting with the two seeds, the intriguing match before that potential quarterfinal blockbuster could be seeing Mladenovic-Ostapenko in round two. Yes. Mladenovic. Ostapenko. Together for the first time. That’s gonna be must see TV. Ostapenko is 12-3 in doubles this year with most of those wins with Hsieh, while Mladenovic is 8-5 with most of that coming with Guo. They have Hozumi-Wu first up. They broke a three match losing skid in Indian Wells before they were routed by Perez-Schuurs in round two. I’ll take Mladenovic-Ostapenko. I think it’s a bit much to ask for them to KO Siniakova-Townsend after the way they played in Indian Wells, but it is a new week, so you never know!
The other half with Danilina-Krunic could yield another showdown between the 5th seeds and Kichenok-Krawczyk to decide a spot in the quarterfinals. Their first meeting went to a super tie break in the Dubai quarterfinals, but Danilina-Krunic steamrolled them in the return match last week in Indian Wells (6-4, 6-1). That seems the probable matchup for round two with Jiang-Xu in a tough spot to open against the current #1 ranked pair. And Bouzkova-Valentova don’t inspire that much hope in their debut having to play a pair in Kichenok-Krawczyk that is battle-tested. I think Danilina-Krunic do their part to set up that blockbuster with Siniakova-Townsend. It would be a mild surprise to not see that match happen. Kichenok-Krawczyk seem the likeliest outlier if there is one to mess that up, but after the way they were dominated by Danilina-Krunic last week …
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
The bottom half definitely has the form teams and sets up much more likely to produce a seeded finalist in my opinion than the top half does. The quest for the Sunshine Double is a tough one for any pair, no matter the path. For Siniakova-Townsend, it’s even tougher as they may have to beat Danilina-Krunic AND Dabrowski-Stefani just to get to the final! And don’t forget that Danilina-Krunic also own a 2-1 advantage over Dabrowski-Stefani although like Siniakova-Townsend, they lost the last time they met. That was in a super tie break in Dubai. The tail end of this half of action could see several of the best rivalries going in the sport right now. It’s difficult for me to see one of those three not being the finalist out of this half. I don’t see an unseeded pair I like enough to pick unless they get a lot of help with seeds losing early. Maybe some sort of voodoo from Mladenovic-Ostapenko?
SEMIFINAL PIX: (3)Dabrowski-Stefani vs (5)Danilina-Krunic
The way three of the seeds are playing coming into this week in Miami, you get the feeling that the seeds may right the ship this time around and win the titles. I won’t be surprised to see an unseeded pair crash the party still, but between Siniakova-Townsend, Dabrowski-Stefani and Danilina-Krunic, I think you’ve got the champion in that trio. I may be in the wrong again by going against Siniakova-Townsend again this week, but stupid is a trait that runs deep in these veins. A relative surprise for a seed to make the run this week could be (4)Mertens-Zhang in that top half that seems a lot more conducive to a run if they get back on track. I’ll stick with an unseeded surprise for my third pick. Danilina-Krunic are running away with the race right now with a 1,345 point lead over Siniakova-Townsend. They’re 1,710 up on Mertens-Zhang who reside in third. Nobody will probably make a big dent in that deficit this week with Danilina-Krunic unlikely to fall short of a quarterfinal, but someone can at least keep them reeled in a little bit with a title run. Should be a fun tournament.
Dabrowski-Stefani
Fernandez-Williams
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