AUSTRALIAN OPEN NEWS & NOTES
*A red hot Heliovaara-Patten arrive in Melbourne with the Adelaide titles in tow as they look to become to the 1st men’s pair to repeat since the Bryans won three straight from 2009-2011. This year’s two seeds have won 12 of their last 13 matches dating back to 2025 with three straight tournament titles in Paris, at the ATP Finals and in Adelaid to kick start 2026. In that span, they’ve lost just four sets!
*Heliovaara-Patten, seeded 6th in 2025, won last year’s title match as 2.16 (+116) underdogs. They took out (3)Bolelli-Vavassori 6-7(16), 7-6(5), 6-3. Their underdog status in the final makes it three out of the last five years that the underdog in the Championship match has taken home the ultimate prize.
*Overall, underdogs had a modest time in 2025 with 17 of them scoring wins from the 63 completed matches. Ten underdogs barked in the opening round. Of those, four involved seeded upsets. The biggest score for the round was 3.19 (+219), but the biggest for the tournament came in at 3.86 (+286) in round two. The overall number was down from 2024 when 21 underdogs won matches with eight of them hitting between 3.00 (+200) and 4.93 (+393). 2023 saw 19 underdog wins, so it looks like we can expect just under 30 percent of the matches to go to the dogs.
*Last year’s three set tally stood at 26! Eleven of those came in round one with seven more in round two. The total was steady from 2024 when there were 25 three set matches and 2023 saw 22 matches that went the distance. A spot to focus on finding these of late has been the semifinals. Five of the last six semifinals have featured three set finishes. The other key round to focus on is round two. At least seven of that round’s 16 scheduled matches have gone the distance in three of the last four runs of the Australian Open.
*The win by Heliovaara-Patten last year made it two straight for seeded teams in the final. If you recall, we had back-to-back unseeded, all-Aussie champions in both 2022 and 2023. An unseeded pair was denied a spot in the final in 2025 for the first time since 2021. Unseeded teams continue to infiltrate the latter stages of the tournament with at least one unseeded semifinalist each year since 2022. Three of the four years in that span have seen multiple unseeded pairs in the final four. I’ll touch on the teams to watch for those spots a little later.
*One thing you don’t want to be in Melbourne is seeded #1. Sorry Cash-Glasspool. The top seeded pair has not made the final here since 2013. That was also the last time the #1 seeds (Bryans) won the titles. 2015 is also the last time that the top seeded pair even made the semifinals! Quite the drought.
*Heliovaara-Patten’s quest to repeat will be the focal point of the men’s draw, but there are plenty of secondary stories to follow. The other key one for me is the Italians, Bolelli-Vavassori. They get lost in the shuffle, but making two straight finals is superb consistency. However, they have been unable to break through in those big spots with an 0-3 record in Grand Slam finals. Granollers-Zeballos finally got that monkey off their back last year, could it be the Italians turn soon? And then certainly Kokkinakis-Kyrgios both not playing singles, but instead only playing doubles, will be something to see. We know there will be a circus atmosphere for their matches, but can they produce anything special? They’ve played just three matches since their magical 2022 run, so expecting big things is probably unwise.
Unseeded pairs in Melbourne usually make some noise during the season’s first Grand Slam. Last year, it was Goransson-Verbeek who stunned their way to the semifinals with a big upset of Arevalo-Pavic in the quarterfinals. Who is set to join history this week as the next unexpected deep runner here? Let’s take a look.
Kubler-Polmans
If you’re looking for one out of nowhere, maybe this is your team. Kubler is a Grand Slam champion at this event, while Polmans has almost always provided to be a tough out when playing doubles at his home Slam. He hasn’t matched his 2020 quarterfinal run, but the last two losses he’s involved with here both involved three set finishes. Kubler obviously has never matched his title run with Hijikata in 2023, but once more, as an Aussie at this event, he seems to usually be a tough out no matter his partner.
Arribage-Olivetti
This pair has already sounded the alarm for the rest of the draw after winning the titles in Auckland to start the season. They’re now 14-6 in limited play the last season plus with two ATP titles. They’re definitely ones to watch as potential dark horses for a semifinal berth.
Herbert-Thompson
An intriguing combo that we’ve see a few times. They’re 4-0 with two of those wins coming at Wimbledon last year. The caveat for these two is that Thompson is playing singles too. Both times these two have paired, a withdrawal has ended their run. Still, there is plenty of talent present that could ruffle some feathers in this draw if health or fatigue for Thompson isn’t an issue.
Luz-Matos
If you follow me, you may have seen me mention the two Brazilians in the Australian Open prep swing. They looked solid in going 3-2 with a win over Krajicek-Mektic and a narrow 7-6, 6-4 loss to Harrison-Skupski in their last go in Adelaide. They would have to get through Krawietz-Puetz early most likely, but I think there is some danger for this team to destroy a quarter with a win.
Frantzen-Haase
This is a lethal team when they’re on as they proved by upsetting Heliovaara-Patten in round one of the 2025 U.S. Open. They also pushed eventual champs Granollers-Zeballos to three sets. They’re just 2-2 so far in 2026, but this is a pair that you should definitely keep an eye on.
Ebden-Ram
Does this new duo need more seasoning? Perhaps, but they played Kokkinakis-Kyrgios to a 10-8 super tie break loss in their lone match this year in Brisbane. They’re in the Heliovaara-Patten quarter, so getting to a semifinal may be a reach without some help. Still, I do think there is a path to a possible quarterfinal if they get cooking.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
We returned to a bit more “normal” flow of upsets in 2025 with four seeds going out in round one. That made it four out of the last five years you can say that and another top five seed bit the dust early. That has now happened three times in the last five years, but interestingly all in even-numbered years.
In any case, here’s a look at the seeds who could find themselves on the wrong end of the results in round one.
(6)Harrison-Skupski
It was a good debut for this new 2026 coupling as they made the semifinals in Adelaide with a 10-5 super tie break loss to Krawietz-Puetz. Flush that however as they face a treacherous foe in Schnaitter-Wallner. The Germans took a set off Heliovaara-Patten in Adelaide and continue to climb in confidence on hard courts. I do think this one likely goes two ways: a very straight forward win for the seeds or a real battle that goes the distance with the Germans poised for the upset.
(10)Bhambri-Goransson
If there’s an Aussie agitator in round one, look no further than Duckworth-Hewitt. Yes, that’s Cruz Hewitt, son of the great four time Grand Slam champion Lleyton. They did get a match under their belt early, so there will be some familiarity as they hit the court in Melbourne. Bhambri-Goransson are solid, but chalk this one up to Aussies being Aussies at the Australian Open.
(11)Andreozzi-Guinard
You could expect the seeds to improve after a season-opening loss to Gonzalez-Molteni in Adelaide where they looked flat in a 6-3, 6-2 loss. The draw does them no favors though with talented Dutchmen Griekspoor-van De Zandschulp scheduled first up. They made their Slam debut here last year and made the third round. They’re usually a very tough out and I expect nothing less in this one.
(13)Gonzalez-Molteni
You never know what you’ll get with the Argentinians on hard courts as evidenced by their history here with two first round exits and a quarterfinal (2024). They have a difficult draw though with Machac-Vocel who have looked good early this season. Don’t forget they also made the U.S. Open quarterfinals last year in their first tournament together. This really won’t be an upset if the seeds lose.
(14)Cash-Tracy
Does lightning strike twice? Frantzen-Haase took down the Americans in a super tie break in Auckland earlier in the season. Cash-Tracy could benefit from having a third full set to play with after losing both their prep matches in super tie breaks. Still, the 2025 U.S. Open surprise semifinalists won’t be happy to see this team again in their opener.
DRAW PREVIEW
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QUARTER ONE
(1)Cash-Glasspool lead the way in the first quarter of the draw. They come in on a rare losing streak, having lost their last two matches. They did make the final in Brisbane, but there is cause for pause with the Brits. I already mentioned that the top seeds have not won in Melbourne for a long time, so that’s working against them. Let’s also not forget after their glory at Wimbledon, they went one and done at the U.S. Open. Behar-Vliegen are a pesky sort they will open against, but the Brits did edge them twice in 2025 on grass both times in straight sets. Still, they needed a tie break in two of those sets. I’d expect a close one again, but I do see the Brits getting back on track with a win.
King-Peers are the 15th seeds in the other section of this top half. They square off against an interesting first time pair in Jakub Paul and Marcus Willis. Paul had some great moments at Challengers in 2025 with six finals, including four titles won. Willis has been around the block for a bit and also has some of his best runs at Challengers. With King-Peers still in the early stages of their partnership for 2026, this might be more interesting than some expect. The killer match opposite of this should be the all-Aussie showdown between Kokkinakis-Kyrgios and Kubler-Polmans. At full strength, no doubt the Special Ks would likely take this one. That said, Kokkinakis is still coming back from a shoulder injury and Kyrgios is still trying to get back into form after playing few matches the last two years. The survivor of this one may have a real shot to contend for a quarterfinal with King-Peers still working their way into form together.
The bottom half of the quarter is led by (8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin who were a steady force in doubles last year, especially at Grand Slams. This year’s #8 seeds made the quarters here in Melbourne last year and at the U.S. Open on top of a semifinal showing at the French Open. They have that big match prowess. Their portion of this half looks likely to have them seeking another quarterfinal berth with the Cerundolos up first. On the opposite side of this half are (12)Doumbia-Reboul. Their draw is much more perilous to where matching their third round result here a year ago may be tough. They open against Arends-Arneodo. I think the seeds advance, but don’t forget that three of their first four matches in 2026 went to super tie breaks. It could still be a real battle. Round two may be where they exit if Arribage-Olivetti can continue their early season heater. I already named them an unseeded menace and I think they may back that up with a push into round three. Can they get past Nys/Roger-Vasselin?
I think there will be a shocker or two in this quarter and Cash-Glasspool could well be on the receiving end of one of those. I think the winner of that all-Aussie battle could be the ones to do deliver that blow. Arribage-Olivetti are the unseeded pair I’m watching the hardest in this quarter. If a seed gets it done, it just might be old reliable Nys/Roger-Vasselin in the end.
QUARTER TWO
(4)Arevalo-Pavic and (7)Bolelli-Vavassori are on opposite ends of this quarter. Starting in the top half with the four seeds, their nearest seed is (16)Krajicek-Mektic. I look at Arevalo-Pavic as having a pretty solid draw with Herbert-Thompson maybe as the one sticking point early. If that match goes down in round two, I’m ready for it. Krajicek-Mektic continue to struggle for momentum with three of their five tournaments together since they paired last year seeing them go down in their opener. I think they’ll buck that trend here against Darderi-Garin, but round two may provide some big questions.
Kirkov-Stevens tangle with Escobar/Reyes-Varela whom they beat in a super tie break in Hong Kong a few weeks back. Kirkov-Stevens in particular would be the ones to watch if they move on. They had a solid 2025 at 42-19, but most of that came at the Challenger level. They did step up at some 250s late in the year, making finals in Chendu and Stockholm. These guys can go and will definitely push Krajicek-Mektic to be at their best. As for the quarterfinal slot from this half of the quarter, it’s Arevalo-Pavic for me. They made the quarters here a year ago and I think are desperate to start the first Grand Slam in style. They were one of the steadiest doubles pairs on tour in 2025, but probably felt like they didn’t have a great season due to a lack of titles.
In the Bolelli-Vavassori half, the Italians could be on a collision course with another one of my hype teams, (9)Cabral-Miedler. The 7th seeded Italians are twice runners-up here in Melbourne and still searching for that elusive first Grand Slam title together. They already got tested twice early in Adelaide with a win over Arevalo-Pavic followed by a loss to Heliovaara-Patten in the semifinals. That match toughness helps and I don’t see much in the way of them not getting to round three at least. I am intrigued by the potential of Johnson-Zielinski who are potentially in their path, but that’s a new pair that may need more time to blossom into true contenders to the top tier teams on tour.
Cabral-Miedler are one of those unsung pairs that I think may truly break out in 2026 and contend for an ATP Finals spot. They went 48-18 last year with three ATP titles. They followed that up by winning the Brisbane titles to start 2026, capping their title run off with a huge win over Cash-Glasspool. When you look at the teams they might meet before a possible seed versus seed showdown in round three, Pavlasek-Smith is the one that sticks out. Two veteran players, but they’re short on experience together. A date with Bolelli-Vavassori in the third round beckons and could be the moment where they signal their arrival if they can pull off the win.
I believe a seed is coming through this quarter into the semifinals. It is hard to go against Bolelli-Vavassori given their record here the last two seasons. With the win over Arevalo-Pavic in their back pocket from Adelaide, they have won two straight against them after losing their first three battles. Cabral-Miedler stand out as the “dark horse” among the seeds in this part of the draw. I think it’s one of those three pairs that gets it done, but I have to stick with the Italians and their quest to get back to a third straight Australian Open final.
TOP HALF FORECAST
Bolelli-Vavassori are the favorites in this half, I don’t care what seed they are. If you have a history of making the final at this tournament, you’re my favorite until you don’t make it back. All due respect to Cash-Glasspool, the Brits need to reprove themselves on this stage after their U.S. Open flop in the opening round. The two pairs I like the most here are Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Bolleli-Vavassori. I do think Cabral-Miedler are “outsiders” that could make their mark, but that is me guessing they’re ready. If there is a true surprise in this half, Arribage-Olivetti fit the bill and perhaps Kubler-Polmans or Kokkinakis-Kyrgios if things fall just right.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs (7)Bolelli-Vavassori
QUARTER THREE
The winners of the last two Grand Slams of 2025 kick off this quarter. (3)Granollers-Zeballos will start the season cold in Melbourne without any prep matches. They’ve been around long enough that it shouldn’t concern anyone. They have made the semifinals twice here in 2023 and 2024. Last year though, they were ousted in round three by Hanfmann-Koepfer. It will be interesting to see them this year with that monkey off their back. Will they play loose and free or is there still some residual tightness for this stop and Wimbledon where they still have yet to break through? Their draw looks sublime early. With Cash-Tracy as the only seeds in their path to a quarterfinal, they will like their chances of being in the quarterfinals. Cash-Tracy will do well to avoid the early upset against Frantzen-Haase. The winner there should be in line to face Granollers-Zeballos. I don’t see Bublik-Shevchenko or Demoliner-Rojer as a pair that is going to do a whole lot in this section. If Granollers-Zeballos flop here, it’s not because the draw isn’t set up in their favor.
The other half of the quarter sees (5)Krawietz-Puetz and (10)Bhambri-Goransson as the seeds. The 5th seeded Germans had a nice run to the final in Adelaide with wins over Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Harrison-Skupski, but they were overwhelmed by Heliovaara-Patten in the final. The Germans had their best finish here in 2025 with that terribly tough loss to Heliovaara-Patten in the semifinals 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(7). Luz-Matos could be a credible threat in round two for the Germans. Bhambri-Goransson will hope to avoid Aussie magic when they square off with Duckworth-Hewitt in round one. Focus on Gonzalez-Pel if they advance out of round one. They haven’t had a lot of wins, but they have been a really hard team to put away. They could be tricky in round two. I think the interesting thing here is to see if Krawietz-Puetz shook off the poor loss in the Adelaide final. Sometimes those matches linger.
There is plenty of unseeded danger here. The question is who would falter to see one of them through? Granollers-Zeballos have to be treated as the class of this quarter for sure after what they accomplished last year. And if it comes down to the two highest seeds, the two-time Grand Slams champs have had Krawietz-Puetz’s number with four wins in four tries. The sleeper here is Frantzen-Haase. If they spring that upset to start, they’re going to be more dangerous as the rounds go by. Even though I have Luz-Matos as an unseeded menace, don’t sleep on Gonzalez-Pel in that role too.
QUARTER FOUR
To the final quarter and defending champions (2)Heliovaara-Patten. The question really just needs to be who in this quarter is capable of stepping up and stopping this train? In their immediate half, keep an eye on round two. Both Romios-Seggerman and Erler-Galloway have some juice. Romios-Seggerman already scored the scalp of Cash-Glasspool in Adelaide and Erler-Galloway banged heads with the 2025 champs twice last year. They were crushed the first time, but took Heliovaara-Patten to a super tie break in a loss in Paris. On top of that, they have solid reps in 2026 with an appearance in the Auckland final. I think whomever gets out of that first round clash will give Heliovaara-Patten a run for their money.
As for the other section of that half, I am looking squarely at Machac-Vocel as the surprise outfit. They have (13)Gonzalez-Molteni first, but they’re already listed as slighty favorites in that match. Nouza-Rikl are also a handy sort in this section, so round two could be an under-the-radar banger with the Czechs providing spirited competition for most opponents. All in all, Heliovaara-Patten will be greatly disappointed if they fail to at least make a quarterfinal. But they surely have bigger aspirations for the tournament.
The other half of this last quarter features new pairing (6)Harrison-Skupski as the lead seeds. There was plenty to like about their debut, so I do believe expectations are high for this duo. Schnaitter-Wallner should give them a good challenge in round one. That may be the win the 6th seeds need to sling shot into contention. On the other side, (11)Andreozzi-Guinard are hoping to recapture some of the magic we saw from them in the Asian swing last Fall. Wins over Arevalo-Pavic, Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Heliovaara-Patten show what this pair can do. That said, new year, new proving grounds. Their stay in Melbourne may be short with Griekspoor-van De Zandschulp loaded as their starter. And even survival there could see yet another tight one with Ebden-Ram possibly waiting in round two. I’d be a bit surprised to be honest if Andreozzi-Guinard win more than a match in Melbourne. This could be a part of the draw that produces an unseeded quarterfinalist.
You won’t catch me picking against Heliovaara-Patten in this quarter early on, but I also would not be that surprised if they fell before the last four. There are some tough unseeded pairs here that will relish the opportunity to make a name for themselves. If it’s a seed, it’s either Heliovaara-Patten or Harrison-Skupski for me. Machac-Vocel and Ebden-Ram are the unseeded pairs I’d be less than thrilled to see later in the draw.
BOTTOM HALF FORECAST
As good as Heliovaara-Patten have been dating back to the latter stages of 2025, a defending champion in Melbourne has had trouble getting back to the final the next year. I’d still be fairly stunned if the two seeds were not at least in the semifinals. You can sign me up for a Heliovaara-Patten vs Granollers-Zeballos semifinal showdown. Granollers-Zeballos have won two of three but they have not met since Madrid last year, which was prior to Granollers-Zeballos becoming Grand Slam champions. Of course sometimes when we anticipate something too much, everything goes off the rails and we end up with something completely different. Perhaps this has the feel of just that.
SEMIFINAL PIX: (5)Krawietz-Puetz vs (6)Harrison-Skupski
Do we go back to an air of unpredictability in Melbourne after a couple of years where the top tier teams stepped up to win the ultimate prize? I do feel like there will be some of that along the way, but I’m not sure that the end game here will have one of those true surprise endings like we saw in 2022 and 2023. I am going against the repeat here and that may be me being all day stupid as I’m want to do. I just have a feeling with the tight nature of some of these sets, Heliovaara-Patten might wind up on the wrong side somewhere sooner than expected. What I do think we get is a break though. One of those veteran pairs we’ve seen time and time again doing great work, but coming up short.
Giddyup and enjoy the show.
Bolelli-Vavassori
Krawietz-Puetz
Nys/Roger-Vasselin
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