ATP Tour Finals Preview

ATP FINALS NEWS & NOTES

*Krawietz-Puetz aim to become the second straight repeat champions at the ATP Tour Finals after Ram-Salsbury accomplished that feat in 2022-2023. The Germans beat Arevalo-Pavic in the 2024 final as 2.00 (+100) “dogs” in a 7-6(5), 7-6(6) finish. That marked the fourth straight season that the championship match at this event has ended in straight sets.

*Do we count 2.00 (+100) as an underdog score? Perhaps. That made it seven dog scores out of the 15 matches played in 2024 if you categorize it that way. Five of those came in Round Robin play with 2.85 (+185) the highest hit. One of the semifinals gave berth to a dog win. Four of the last five years at the Tour Finals, at least one semifinal has gone the way of the underdog. The final itself has been a haven for chalk with no “true” underdog wins since 2013. That one hit at 2.96 (+196) when Marrero-Verdasco stunned the Bryans in a super tie break finale.

*As for super tie breaks, 2024 saw five total. Four of those came in the Round Robin stage. That matched the exact output of 2023. 2022 was the last time that super tie breaks flowed more readily with eight of the 15 completed matches needing the extra frame. Seven of those STBs came in the Round Robin stage. While the Round Robin stage is definitely the place you’ll expect to see more super tie breaks, don’t forget the semifinals. There has been at least one super tie break finish in a semifinal each year since 2018.

*Five of this year’s field of eight doubles pairs were in Turin in 2024. The newbies for 2025 are Cash-Glasspool, Salisbury-Skupski and Harrison-King. Glasspool, Salisbury and Skupski have all been to at least one Tour Final in previous seasons, but this is brand new for Cash and the duo of Harrison-King. All three of these first-time Tour Finals’ pairs will hope history remains on their side with a fairly length list of first time Tour Finals participants making it to at least the semfinals dating back at least a decade.

DRAW PREVIEW

Peter Fleming Group
Cash-Glasspool
Granollers-Zeballos
Krawietz-Puetz
Bolelli-Vavassori

You’ve got two teams in this group, Cash-Glasspool and Granollers-Zeballos, who were responsible for three Grand Slam titles in 2025. The Brits took Wimbledon, while Granollers-Zeballos broke through at the French Open for their first career Slam title together and then backed it up by winning the U.S. Open. To say this group is stacked is an absolute understatement when you add in last year’s Tour Finals’ champs Krawietz-Puetz and Bolelli-Vavassori who have made three Slam finals over the last two seasons. This group opens play on Sunday, making match day one an intriguing watch.

Granollers-Zeballos take on the defending champs Krawietz-Puetz on Sunday, having beaten them all three times the two pairs have met. Two of those wins came at Wimbledon in 2023 and 2024, and the last came in Madrid earlier this year. The 2025 double Slam champs have never lost a set to the Germans, but each of the last two meetings has featured a tie break set. This is the sixth trip to the Tour Finals for Granollers-Zeballos. They failed to make it out of the group stages a year ago, making it two of the last three trips that they did not make it past that round. They did make the final in 2023 as their best finish. Granollers-Zeballos won the titles indoors in Basel, but then dropped their opener in Paris. The Germans made the quarterfinals in Paris and stand at 3-2 indoors this season. It would be HUGE for the defending champs to grab their first win over Granollers-Zeballos to open group play.

The other match on Sunday pits Cash-Glasspool against the Italians Bolelli-Vavassori, who have won two of their three career clashes. All three came this season with the Italians winning indoors in Rotterdam and on clay in Hamburg. The Brits scored the win in their last battle in Cincinnati. Four of the six sets between the two have gone to tie breaks with an even split. Both have been solid indoors this season with Cash-Glasspool at 9-2 with titles in Vienna and a final in Paris. Bolelli-Vavassori won Rotterdam early in the year, but are only 3-3 on the surface since that win. There is a definite edge on form for the Brits.

After Match Day one, here is a look at the key battles that could shape the rest of the group.

KEY H2H
Cash-Glasspool (4-1) vs Krawietz-Puetz
Krawietz-Puetz (3-3) vs Bolelli-Vavassori

The Germans don’t seem to match up well against the pairs in this group outside of Bolelli-Vavassori whom they have won three of the last four meetings against. Cash-Glasspool have already beaten Krawietz-Puetz twice indoors this year among those four wins with the Germans lone victory coming early in the season at the Australian Open. Perhaps as impressive for Cash-Glasspool in that series is that only one of the last eight sets has gone to a tie break.

CLOSING TIME

Granollers-Zeballos may have had the most memorable moments of their careers this year with the wins in Paris and New York, but it’s Cash-Glasspool who arrive as the pair to beat in my estimation. Their form indoors in this final stretch of the season has been elite, probably blow-for-blow with Heliovaara-Patten (more on them later). I think a match that could really set the tone for this group is the opener with Granollers-Zeballos taking on Krawietz-Puetz. While the Germans have not had success against the double Slam champs, this feels like a decent spot for them to push for that first W. They certainly feel comfortable in this setting in Turin where they pounded through their first two group matches a year ago in straight sets. A win against Granollers-Zeballos and it could be lift off for the defending champs.

Even though Bolelli-Vavassori have the H2H edge against Cash-Glasspool, I think the biggest surprise of this group would be the Brits failing to advance to the semifinals. For me the other spot should come down to Granollers-Zeballos or Krawietz-Puetz. The Germans certainly do not look like they’re in a good spot with poor H2H records against Granollers-Zeballos and Cash-Glasspool. Something with me thinks they are going to overturn one of those and grab a big win. And yes, these choices mean I do not believe in the Italians who have really struggled for consistency after winning Washington in late July. They have only made it as far as the semifinals in one of their last eight tournaments.

Teams to Advance: Cash-Glasspool, Krawietz-Puetz

John McEnroe Group
Heliovaara-Patten
Arevalo-Pavic
Salisbury-Skupski
Harrison-King

This group has a very different vibe to it from the Peter Fleming Group. There is a Grand Slam champion from 2025 in the mix in Heliovaara-Patten and they come in red hot after winning the Paris Masters. Even bigger for them, they FINALLY figured out how to beat Cash-Glasspool who had beaten them the first four meetings. After that though, it’s an interesting mix. Sure, there is plenty of veteran presence in Arevalo-Pavic and Salisbury-Skupski, but both have been a bit iffy down the stretch in 2025. Then there are the first timers Harrison-King who seemed like they were on a mission to not keep their spot in the top eight for most of the second half of the season. They were a revelation early in 2025 and may have topped out when they got to the semifinals at Roland Garros. They did score a huge title in Brussels indoors that helped keep them in their spot, but after that it was two straight losses heading to Turin.

Let’s start with the favorites for me, Heliovaara-Patten. They went 6-1 indoors in tournaments in Vienna and Paris. The lone loss was a super tie break heart breaker to Cash-Glasspool in Vienna. They bounced back to win the Paris Masters punctuated with that straight sets win over Cash-Glasspool. They arrive in form and with experience after sweeping through group play last year into the semifinals. Heliovaara-Patten will open against Harrison-King on Monday, a pair that beat them in their lone battle back at the French Open. It’s safe to say that the American pair is not in the same form as they were at that time, while Heliovaara-Patten have elevated their level since a disappointing round one exit at the U.S. Open. In four tournaments since that loss, they’ve won titles in Beijing and Paris plus quarterfinal and semifinal finishes in Shanghai and Vienna respectively. They are sturdy 1.35 (-285) favorites in that opener. The other match on opening day for this group sees Arevalo-Pavic trying to end a two match losing skid to Salisbury-Skupski. For me, this might be my favorite matchup in the opening round of play. The Brits lost to Arevalo-Pavic in Rome in their first battle, but rebounded to win in a super tie break finish in Toronto and swept them in straights in Cincinnati.

Arevalo-Pavic put together their best run indoors last year at this event. They bounced back from a first match loss to advance out of group play with a 2-1 record. They would take out Heliovaara-Patten in two tie break sets before losing the final to Krawietz-Puetz in two tie break sets. As for Salisbury-Skupski, they have stumbled a bit indoors at 2-3 this season. Half of those matches went to super tie breaks and also included an early season loss in Dallas to Harrison-King. The situation may seem to favor Arevalo-This they’ve done the last two times these pairs met. This is the only H2H that doesn’t favor Arevalo-Pavic, so it is a big moment for them. A win and they could get through this group in the top position.

After Match Day one for this group, here is a look at the key battles that could shape the rest of the group.

KEY H2H
Arevalo-Pavic (2-1) vs Heliovaara-Patten
Harrison-King (2-1) vs Salisbury-Skupski

The clash between Arevalo-Pavic and Heliovaara-Patten could play a massive role in who gets out of this group in what spot. They have not met since last year’s Tour Final where Arevalo-Pavic won 7-6, 7-6. Heliovaara-Patten’s win in this series came during their Wimbledon title run in 2024 when they survived Arevalo-Pavic 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(7). Sandwiched in the middle was a straight sets win in Cincinnati for Arevalo-Pavic. This should be a real banger given Arevalo-Pavic’s strength at this event last year and Heliovaara-Patten’s current form. It could also be a fight for survival for Arevalo-Pavic given how tough their matchup is to start against Salisbury-Skupski. The other one to watch is one many won’t be aware of and that’s Harrison-King’s 2-1 record against the Brits. Salisbury-Skupski did win the last time they met at the French Open, but it took a third set tie breaker to settle it. Harrison-King had beaten the Brits indoors in Dallas and on clay in Madrid prior to the Paris match. This looks like a pivotal match on paper.

CLOSING TIME

This is an intriguing group despite the Peter Fleming Group perhaps having a bit more star power due to the multiple Grand Slam champs present. Harrison-King seem like firm outsiders trying to prove their worth this week, but they’ve beaten two of the other three pairs in this group earlier in the year. I tend to think Heliovaara-Patten and Arevalo-Pavic are going to wind up seeing the winner in the H2H eliminating the other pair. Heliovaara-Patten have the confidence after Paris and if they can get past Harrison-King in their opening match, this one might end up locking up a spot in the semifinals. For me, I’m not a fan of the Brits’ chances in this group. There are a lot of H2Hs for them that are very tight, but their current form coming in is a bit concerning. I’m going with a surprise and the pair who have to be one of the favorites in this competition given their form.

Teams to Advance: Harrison-King, Heliovaara-Patten

This looks like a tournament that may feature a lot of very tight matches, so I think there will be some twists and turns. I do think Cash-Glasspool and Heliovaara-Patten look the part of the favorites, but you can really look up and down the lineup and find a reason why you think one of these eight can lift the trophies. Enjoy the show in Turin.

PIG PIX

Krawietz-Puetz
Heliovaara-Patten