ATP Paris Preview

PARIS NEWS & NOTES

*It’s the last dance in the “regular season” on the ATP World Tour as the season wraps up this week before heading to the Tour FInals in Turin. There will be no repeat champions this year after (6)Koolhof-Mektic took the titles in 2024 3-6, 6-3, 10-5 over the unseeded pair Glasspool-Pavlasek. Koolhof-Mektic were firm favorites at 1.50 (-200). They were the first favorites to win the championship match since Herbert-Mahut in 2019.

*The super tie break finish marked the fourth time in the last five runs in Paris that the finale went the distance. Overall last year featured nine super tie break finishes out of the 23 completed matches. Seven of those came in the first two rounds combined. 2023 had just six super tie break finishes and they were fairly evenly spread throughout the draw. 2022 was the last time Paris hit double digits with ten super tie break matches. Last year ended a six year run of seeing at least one super tie break in the semifinals. Still, that round and the final have been a beacon for STBs in recent history at the Paris Masters.

*Seeds have won the titles the last three years after two-year run in 2020 and 2021 that saw surprise unseeded winners. It’s probably not that surprising that the last stop on the tour each season has not been good for the highest seeds. There was a two seed champion in 2022, but that was the first top four seed to win since 2017. The number one seeded pair in Paris has not won the titles since the Bryan brothers in 2014.

*As for seeds in the early going, three seeds fell in their round two openers. That included the top two seeds, Granollers-Zeballos and Arevalo-Pavic. Each of the last four runs in Paris have seen two seeds go down in their openers. The top seeds have gone one and done in four of the last six years. The two years they survived their starting match, it took a super tie break to survive. Keep and eye on Arevalo-Pavic in round two, something I’ll touch on more in just a little bit.

*Unseeded pairs have made a habit of being in the business end of this event. Last year, there were two unseeded pairs in the semifinals and the one pair that made the final. There has been at least one unseeded team in the semis since 2018. In that same span, we’ve seen three unseeded champions and six unseeded finalists. It’s not a bad idea to expected some unexpected pairs to be in the championship mix of late here in Paris.

*The big story to follow in Paris will be who cements their names in the final three spots for the Tour Finals in Turin. Coming in, spots six through eight are occupied by Krawietz-Puetz, Bolelli-Vavassori and Harrison-King. The Americans are in the most immediate peril, just 300 points ahead of Nys/Roger-Vasselin for the final spot. That’s not much at a Masters event where the points gained go up big time as you progress. Krawietz-Puetz need just one win to qualify, while Bolelli-Vavassori will likely be safe if they can get a win in their opener. The scenario that would be worse for them would be losing their opener and then seeing Harrison-King and Nys/Roger-Vasselin make deep runs. Realistically for me, the race is mostly about that 8th spot and whether or not the Americans can hang on.

*The other note to finish off the 2025 regular season is the last tournament for doubles legend Nicolas Mahut. The Frenchman announced earlier in the season that this would be his last and he was hoping his body would hold up to have his send-off come here in Paris. He’s been battling a herniated disc in his back since last year. Mahut has 37 career ATP doubles titles, including five at Grand Slams. The last came at the French Open in 2021. His final partner will be Grigor Dimitrov. The pair have played three times previously in 2023 where they went 1-2. It figures to be an emotional send off whenever it comes and round one will be intriguing as he’s matched up against fellow Frenchies Nys/Roger-Vasselin.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

So who in the sea of the unseeded could make their mark this week in Paris? Here are the pairs that stand out.

Doumbia-Reboul
If there is a tournament where this French pair might get some things to go their way, maybe it’s Paris. They are 4-3 in three years at this event, including last year’s big win over Arevalo-Pavic in round two. Guess who they line up against if they make it to round two? You guessed it: Arevalo-Pavic. Four of their last six indoor hard court matches in 2025 have gone the distance, so they’re likely to be in most matches they play. The question will be if they can find the right side of the super tie break? They’ve lost six of their last seven STBs.

Nys/Roger-Vasselin
Playing at home and with purpose could be a good recipe for the French. I think the big thing for them is to not let emotions get in their way in round one against Dimitrov-Mahut. That may be one that can help catapult them into contender status if they survive. They would have to go through Heliovaara-Patten in round two, so they’re going to earn it, if they get it. This is a pair that made the Brussels final indoors recently and are 5-4 indoors this year with almost every match being very competitive.

Andreozzi-Guinard
They had a relatively poor showing in Almaty last week with a win and a loss. That came off a string where they won seven of their last nine matches to make back-to-back semifinals in Beijing and Shanghai. That run included wins over Arevalo-Pavic, Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Heliovaara-Patten. Don’t get it twisted, this team is DANGEROUS. They could be draw destroyers again.

Arribage-Olivetti
Another dose of French in this section with this all-French duo red hot making back-to-back finals in Almaty (win) and the Brest Challenger. This is very much an uptick in competition level compared to those draws, but there’s obvious chemistry where with this team even though they’ve played just nine matches together (7-2).

Cabral-Miedler
The always-dangerous duo is back after making the final in Vienna last week where they lost to Cash-Glasspool. They got a marquee win in that run over Salisbury-Skupski, so that should boost their confidence. I had often preached that they were best suited for success at 250s. They proved me wrong in Vienna, so I’m giving them a shot this week. It’s still likely a long shot with Granollers-Zeballos in their path, but that’s a pair that has lost their opener in two of the last three trips to Paris.

Bhambri-Pavlasek
This is a total guess and probably a total “homer” pick as two of my favorite underrated doubles guys pair up for the first time. Both have shown the ability to pick up with a “one-off” partner for a week and find success. Bhambri did that with a semifinal run in Vienna last week, while Pavlasek has been in good form with his mid-season partner switch (Zielinski) in winning five of seven indoors this swing. They could get bounced early, but if they find some chemistry and an early win, keep an eye on them.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

I went over the trend earlier regarding seeds in Paris in their openers. At least two have gone down consistently of late, so let’s take a look at the toughest early match-ups that could send a seed packing.

(1)Arevalo-Pavic
There’s a big plus for the top seeds and that’s that they have not lost an opener since Dubai in late February and that is their ONLY one and done this season. So why would they be on this list? A potential round two banger with Frenchies Doumbia-Reboul. But Pig, they’re 4-1 against them? Tis’ true my friends, but that lone loss? You know it. Last year in Paris in their opener. Doumbia-Reboul have also pushed them to super tie breaks in their last two meetings this year, so I am expecting another close one.

(2)Cash-Glasspool
It may be short sighted to put the Vienna champs on this list after they proved health and form in their title run last week. Still, two of the four matches played went to super tie breaks and this is a week with no pressure for them. They’re going to get one of two one-off pairs for the week in their opener. It’s either Bhambri-Pavlasek or Goransson-Zielinkski. That’s four quality veterans and duos who could very well stick with Cash-Glasspool if they fall into the tie break trap. They likely will pass this test, but I do think it could be tricky.

(6)Salisbury-Skupski
Last week in Vienna may have just been a product of rust after not having paired since the US Open, but the Brits struggled to get past Cerundo-Ugo Carabelli in round one and then were beaten in straights by Cabral-Miedler in the quarterfinals. Matching up against one of the UNSEEDED MENACES in Arribage-Olivetti could pose a unique challenge in round one that might make this a good fight with some upset potential.

(7)Bolelli-Vavassori
The Italians have dropped their opener in three of their last four tournaments. They square off with Gonzalez-Pel in round one. That duo has proven to be pesky so far in the few matches they’ve played with wins over Cabral-Miedler and Gonzalez-Molteni plus taking a set off of Krawietz-Puetz. The Italians are seeking their first win in Paris after dropping their opener last year.

DRAW PREVIEW

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TOP HALF

First Quarter
Arevalo-Pavic are the lead seeds for the tournament. Off the bye, they could face a difficult opener against Frenchmen Doumbia-Reboul. They have a winnable opener against fellow Frenchies Halys-Herbert who pair up for the first time. If it’s Doumbia-Reboul, I told you earlier how competitive they have been against Arevalo-Pavic, including the win here last week. Could they do it two years in a row? The bottom half of the quarter features (8)Harrison-King who want to inch closer to locking up a spot in the Tour Finals with some early wins. It’s Cerundolo-Darderi to open. The singles pairing did play Shanghai together with a win and a loss. The loss came in a super tie break to Andreozzi-Guinard, so they’ve got some talent together. The seeded Americans got bounced in their opener in Basel last week after the big title run in Brussels. They’ll be better rested this week, so it’s up to them to keep their nerve and lock down what would be one of the great and unexpected runs to the Tour Finals.

The match opposite of that features Mpetshi-Perricard pairing with Rinderknech and Gonzalez-Molteni. The Argentinian doubles specialists have lost their opener in both previous trips to Paris. They also come in with three straight losses, including two straight opening match failures in Shanghai and Vienna. Their singles pair opposition have both played a dozen doubles matches in 2025 with both going 4-8. Don’t sleep on them in this spot to play spoilers. I think in all with this quarter, I would be surprised to see both seeds squaring off in the quarterfinals. Harrison-King may have the better path, but they also have more to gain and more to lose. Arevalo-Pavic are getting in a last tune-up for the Tour Finals, but there’s nothing really on the line but pride and going for a big trophy. Sometimes that is plenty, some times in a long season, it doesn’t matter at this point. Doumbia-Reboul are the sleepers in this quarter for me. They made the quarterfinals last year and have been pests against this year’s top seeds. Harrison-King might be a tougher foe for them if things fall that way as the Americans walloped Doumbia-Reboul 6-4, 6-0 in the Acapulco final way back in February. I’d expect a rematch to be tigther and perhaps swing in favor of the home-standing Frenchmen.

Second Quarter
It’s (3)Heliovaara-Patten and (7)Bolelli-Vavassori as the seeds in this quarter. Starting with Heliovaara-Patten, they come in with solid form after making the Vienna semifinals, but failing short against Cash-Glasspool again. They won Beijing to start October and also made the quarters in Shanghai. I do still expect a real battle in their opener which will be either against Tour Finals’ chasers Nys/Roger-Vasselin or the retirement tour of Nico Mahut with Dimitrov as his partner. Either one could be a real challenge, so keep your eye on that one. Heliovaara-Patten did beat Nys/Roger-Vasselin at the Australian Open, but that was an eternity ago back in January. With their season on the line, I’d expect the Frenchies to be more competitive in a rematch setting.

The bottom of this quarter could see all hell break loose with Bolelli-Vavassori up against Gonzalez-Pel first. I already touched on some of the Italians recent struggles, so an upset would not be terribly surprising. The match opposite of this one could be one of the better round one bangers with Andreozzi-Guinard battling Erler-Galloway. Erler-Galloway won the titles indoors in Stockholm a couple of weeks ago which included a win over Bolelli-Vavassori. They got rolled by Heliovaara-Patten last week in the Vienna quarterfinals. I have talked extensively on Twitter about my appreciation for their opponents in Andreozzi-Guinard. I really think this is a pairing that could be Tour Finals-worthy if they are a regular pairing in 2026. They just have “it.” I think in the home setting here, the Frenchies are the pair I really like in this quarter. They haven’t shrunk from top tier tussles and they may get another one or two here.

So how does this top half take shape? I’m firmly with the top seed struggles that have accompanied the #1s in Paris in recent times. So for me, I’m looking at Heliovaara-Patten as the pair amongst the seeds who might have the best shot. They’re 12-4 indoors in their two years together, so they know how to win on this surface. I think they’re the team to beat in this top half. My sleepers are Andreozzi-Guinard and Doumbia-Reboul with that French flavor. Nys/Roger-Vasselin I think might be in just a little bit too tough of a spot to do real damage.

My Favorite: Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Andreozzi-Guinard

BOTTOM HALF

Third Quarter
(3)Granollers-Zeballos are the highest seeds in the quarter. The 2025 double Grand Slam champions are hot with a 20-1 mark since the start of the French Open. The Paris Masters has not been kind to them however with the quarterfinals marking their best finish in four trips. While there are some challenges in this quarter, it is set up pretty well for the French and U.S. Open champs to make at least a semifinal. Up first will be a very capable pair in Cabral-Miedler or Borges-Machac. While Cabral-Miedler did score the nice win over Salisbury-Skupski last week, they have mostly been troubled to get big wins against the cream of the crop. Borges-Machac are no pushovers though with limited experience together, but plenty of doubles prowess shown in their careers. Either way, I’m team Granollers-Zeballos to stay hot.

In the other half of the quarter, Salisbury-Skupski are the seeds. I already mentioned that they are on the one and done list with Arribage-Olivetti scheduled first. I’m not sure the French are ready for the step up in competition, but if there is any place they might spring the upset, this is it. The winner plays either first time pairing Peers-Tracy or Bopanna-Bublik. Bopanna-Bublik played once back in 2021 on clay and lost. I mean I can’t lie, I think I just want to see that one for the entertainment value. If Salisbury-Skupski get it going again this week, this is certainly an advantageous draw early for them in their normal form. It is just a question of whether or not that form finds them this week. Arribage-Olivetti look like the potential dynamite that could blow up this portion of the bracket.

For me, Granollers-Zeballos are the overall tournament favorites, even with their history at this tournament. How do you go against a team that has won 20 of their last 21? Cabral-Miedler might be the best option if a sleeper emerges.

Fourth Quarter
(2)Cash-Glasspool enter the week with a sturdy 920 point lead over Granollers-Zeballos for the top spot in the rankings. I do think ending the year at #1 is as good a motivator as you can get, so expect the Brits to bring their lunch pails this week. I’m earger to see that round one match opposite of them that pits Bhambri-Pavlasek against Goransson-Zielinski. I do believe the survivor of that one has a realistic shot to push the Brits to the brink. My favorite is Bhambri-Pavlasek, but that one is really a 50-50 shot. In the other half, it’s (5)Krawietz-Puetz looking to lock up another trip to the Tour Finals. A single win this week should do the job.

The Germans saved their best tennis for the biggest spot when they won Shanghai earlier this month. They took advantage of a draw that fell just about perfectly for them due to other upsets. It’s Melo-Zverev for them first with that pairing continuing to lose with a 1-8 record this year after Heliovaara-Patten pounded them in Vienna.
The match on the other side of that quadrant will be interesting. It’s Krajicek-Mektic up against Arends-Johnson. Krajicek-Mektic are 3-4 in their careers when paired up, including 2-3 this season. Arends-Johnson haven’t been able to recapture their 1st half form since an injury separated them for two months this Summer. Since reforming in late August, they’ve gone 2-5. One of those pairs will get a big win in round one, but the consistency seems unlikely to take out the seeded Germans in the next round.

This half would be fantastic if we get a Cash-Glasspool versus Granollers-Zeballos semifinal. We’ve only seen that match-up once this year with the Brits winning in straights during their Wimbledon title run. I’d love to see it on a different surface. I’m sure Salisbury-Skupski would love a fifth crack at Granollers-Zeballos this year (1-3), especially after how the U.S. Open final went down. That would be a killer quarterfinal. Do we get any of that? I think you can make a case for the seeds being in a stronger position in this half of the draw, where it would be a bit suprising not to see at least one if not two challenging for the finals spot.

My Favorite: Granollers-Zeballos
My Sleeper: Krajicek-Mektic

CLOSING TIME

While the main story for doubles enthusiasts may be the battles for those last few Tour FInals berths, my mind drifts to Nicolas Mahut. He’s looked in a bit better shape after it looked like he was struggling perhaps with the disc issue at the French Open. If there is a guy who deserves to play a few this week, he’s the one for me. The question really will be how Dimitrov responds after so much time away due to injury. He’s already admitted he feels a little pressure with it being Nico’s final tournament, but it’s also a moment to cherish. Regardless of outcome, that opener against Nys/Roger-Vasselin is must-see TV for me.

As for the contenders to the crowns this week, Granollers-Zeballos must top the list. I don’t think they’ve been appreciated enough for the run they’ve been on for the last four plus months. They play a lighter schedule, but they show up and show out every time. If they are ever going to find a big run at this event, 2025 feels suited for them to do that. My dark horse pick is Andreozzi-Guinard. As I keep pounding into the aether, this pair has something special to it. They seem unphased by facing the best. I also tend to think the half they’re in looks much more conducive to a surprise with the seeds outside of Heliovaara-Patten having some questions. Let’s not forget with (1)Arevalo-Pavic that in spite of all they’ve done this year, they still have not been to a final since Rome in mid-May. That’s quite amazing for a pair of their talent.

It should be a fun week to watch out how those last few Tour Finals’ spots shake out plus the last dance for Mahut. Enjoy the show!

PIG PIX

Granollers-Zeballos
Andreozzi-Guinard