ATP Shanghai Preview

SHANGHAI NEWS & NOTES

*Last year marked the first time since 2016 that Shanghai saw its doubles titles go to an unseeded pair. Koolhof-Mektic took the honors over another unseeded pair Gonzalez-Molteni 6-4, 6-4. The champs were 1.52 (-192) favorites in the final. The straight sets finish continued a strong trend of two set finals with seven of the last eight runs in Shanghai going down in two sets.

*Super tie breaks were still liberally sprinkled throughout the rest of the tournament in 2024 with 14 of the 30 completed matches going the distance. Eleven of those STB finishes came in rounds one and two. That was down slightly from 16 super tie break finishes in 2023. Remember that 2023 was the first time Shanghai had been held since 2019 due to the pandemic. Rounds one and two were again heavy with the STBs with 13 of the 16 in 2023 coming in those rounds.

*Seeds struggled to make an impact last year with the four semifinal spots all going to unseeded pairs. Four of the eight seeds went down in the opening round. All four ranked as underdog wins with two of the four hitting at 3.00 (+200) or better. It was a stark contrast to 2023 when only one seed fell in the first round. That was the top seeds Dodig-Krajicek. Only half the semifinal field in 2023 was made of seeded pairs, but both did wind up in the final.

*As for underdogs, they tallied ten wins in 2024. Six of those came in round one, including a monster 8.03 (+703) hit when China’s Wang-Zhou upset Doumbia-Reboul. There was just one underdog hit in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final combined. There were eleven dog wins in 2023. Nine of those were in rounds one and two combined with five in the first and four in the second. The two biggest hits came at 3.40 (+240) with one in round two and one in the quarterfinals. In the last two runs in Shanghai, there have been no underdog winners in the semifinals or finals. The quarterfinals have seen multiple underdog scores in two of the last three runs of this Masters 1000 event.

*There’s a good chance we will see some unseeded pairs at the business end of the Rolex Shanghai Masters. Three of the last four runs in Shanghai and both (2023-24) since the pandemic reboot have seen at least one unseeded pair in the semifinals. Last year’s clean sweep of the unseeded menaces being in the semifinals was the first time it’s happened in the 13-year history of this event. More on who to watch in the unseeded field in just a minute.

*There are still three spots in the Tour Finals up-for-grabs as we enter the stretch run in October. Shanghai presents a massive opportunity for the pairs still battling for a spot. Last week, Nys/Roger-Vasselin made things more interesting by winning the titles in Tokyo. That pulled them within 110 points of Harrison-King who are clinging to the 8th spot. Krawietz-Puetz are just 105 ahead of the Americans in 7th, while Bolelli-Vavassori are 365 points clear of the Germans in 6th. With 1,000 points up for grabs to the champions this week, there is an opportunity for some shifting at the tail-end of the rankings. We could well come out of Shanghai with a different look to those spots 6th through 8th.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

As I spelled out earlier, unseeded pairs have been dangerous in Shanghai in the last few runs. Last year they ran rougshod over the seeds en route to claiming seven of the eight quarterfinal spots and all four semifinal spots. Here’s a look at the pairs who could be deep runners this time around.

Skupski-Smith
I highlighted them as a danger last week, but they had a rough draw with Arevalo-Pavic in round one. They may well have to go through that pair again, but it would be round two this time around. I’ve often talked it being tough for a pair to face the same pair the following week if all things are close to equal. They lost 6-3, 7-6 in Beijing. A second chance could yield an even closer result and perhaps fuel this unseeded duo to an unexpected deep run.

Erler-Galloway
One thing this pair has shown is that they won’t go out easily. They’re just 6-5 overall in limited play this year, but their last three losses have been by scores of 7-6 in a final set tie break loss at the US Open, a super tie break loss 10-7 and a two tie break straight sets loss to Nys/Roger-Vasselin last week in Tokyo. They’re in the Arevalo-Pavic quarter and will be one of those pairs that not many want to see.

Peers-Zielinksi
An intriguing team that we saw briefly in Toronto this Summer. They played twice, winning one super tie break and dropping another to Cash-Glasspool. They open with (4)Bolelli-Vavassori and I think that’s tougher on the seeds than it is on this pair. If they score that early upset, it could be a great week for this pair.

Gonzalez-Pel
This was a new pairing we saw in Tokyo last week. They split a pair of matches, beating Cabral-Miedler and losing to Erler-Galloway in a super tie break. They’re facing last year’s runners-up Gonzalez-Molteni to open. They could make a statement right away and that could set them up to be in the mix for at least a quarterfinal berth.

Cash-Tracy
After their semifinal run at the US Open, I said we needed to see more of the Americans in ATP main draws. That has happened as they played both Hangzhou and Tokyo. The record is just 1-2, but their narrow opening loss to Nys/Roger-Vasselin (10-7) in a super tie break shows again how dangerous this duo can be. They’re in an interesting part of the draw where they could see Krawietz-Puetz early on. This is definitely a team that could get on a roll.

Andreozzi-Guinard
The qualifier darlings of Beijing are back in main draw action this week. They knocked off Arevalo-Pavic in Beijing and narrowly lost 7-6, 7-6 to eventual champions Heliovaara-Patten in the semifinals. Can they repeat their form? That is a big question and they will be tested early with (5)Nys/Roger-Vasselin in form and first-up. An upset of the Tokyo champions would quickly announce they’re definitely for real and not just a one-week pony (is that a saying).

Arends-Johnson
They’re still looking for more reps after missing several months together due to injury. This will be just their 3rd match since the end of August. They showed strong against Erler-Galloway in their Tokyo opener, but fell short 12-10 in the super tie break. They square off against Heliovaara-Patten with the two pairs sharing the same coach (Calvin Betton) which makes this that much more intriguing. The winner likely has the inside track to a quarterfinal and perhaps beyond.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

It’s that time of year when results can go all over the map. Even the best of the best have not been immune to upsets. Are there any that look enticing for round one? Here’s a look at the toughest matches for seeds who could lose their openers.

(2)Heliovaara-Patten
This is the one must-see round one match for me because of the coaching situation. Rarely do you see a match-up between two teams where one of the coaches works for both pairs. That’s what you get in this one with Calvin Betton on the sidelines. I think if Arends-Johnson had more reps under their belt, I might feel they have a better shot to score the win. I still expect there could be some twists and turns here, so it will be an intriguing opener.

(4)Bolelli-Vavassori
It’s a harsh opener with Peers-Zielinski as the first round foes. The Italians were the lone seed to make the Shanghai quarterfinals a year ago. They also dropped their opener last week in Beijing, the second time in their last four tournaments that has happened. If you look at their hard court form this Summer, it’s two opening losses, two wins that went the distance and one straight sets winner. I’d expect this one to be close and Peers-Zielinski have shown already that there is a decent chemistry they bring to the mix.

(5)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
The Frenchies are in-form and red hot after winning the Tokyo titles. It’s certainly not lost on them that they have a real shot to grab a Tour Finals qualifying spot with a strong finish to the season. Round one will be tough though with Andreozzi-Guinard up first. I talked earlier about this duo and the havoc they caused in Beijing with a seeded upset and a narrow loss to the eventual champions. As long as they didn’t empty the gas tank last week going through qualis and the main draw, I’d expect a real battle in this one.

(7)Gonzalez-Molteni
Last year’s runners-up in Shanghai go against Gonzalez-Pel in round one. The seeded Argentinians do have a good track record at this stop with last year’s final and a quarterfinal in their other trip. They haven’t lost an opener since Cincinnati, but they have played a lot of close matches on this surface during the Summer in their first match up. If Gonzalez-Pel show show the same competitive streak we saw in Tokyo, this should be an interesting round one watch.

(8)Cabral-Miedler
This is a gut call as we know nothing about how Goransson-Michelsen will or will not mesh as first round opponents for the seeds. What we do know is that Cabral-Miedler tend to make their best runs at smaller tournaments. They come in off an opening loss in Tokyo and two of their other four Summer hard court tournaments have seen them pushed to a super tie break in their starter. Goransson has actually shown a bit better when he’s strayed from Verbeek as those two have flattened out as the season has worn on. Michelsen has plenty of doubles reps and could be elevated with the veteran influence of the Swede.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s draw

TOP HALF

First Quarter
The first quarter is led by top seeds (1)Arevalo-Pavic and (6)Harrison-King. Arevalo-Pavic lost in round one here last year. They are another top tier team that has gone though a lengthy finals drought with their last one being in Rome in late May. I’m eager to see what happens if we get a repeat of them against Skupski-Smith in round two. I wouldn’t rule out Aliassime-Haase over them in round one as you never know what those two will bring together, but it seems more likely the doubles specialists make it through. One the other side of this half, Harrison-King definitely could use some wins as they start against Diallo-Nakashima. You can’t rule out the singles pair with Shanghai usually featuring a fast surface that could enhance their serves. Diallo is just 1-6 in doubles though, so it would certainly be a big upset. The seeded Americans broke a three match losing skid in Tokyo last week by making the semifinals. They will see tougher opponents this week though. That likely comes to fruition in round two if Erler-Galloway get through. They get Krajicek-Mektic who looked unfamiliar as you might expect in their debut last week in Tokyo, a 6-4, 6-2 loss. Is one match and practice enough to turn around their fortunes? We shall see this week, but edge to Erler-Galloway for me who could be a sneaky pick in this section. I don’t see either seed as particularly unbeatable at this stage.

My Favorite: Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: Erler-Galloway

Second Quarter
(4)Bolelli-Vavassori and (8)Cabral-Miedler are the seeds in this quarter. The Italians have their hands full with Peers-Zielinski to start. The survivor looks the team to beat for a quarterfinal spot with Bublik-Shelton taking on Arneodo-Bergs in the other first rounder. Bublik-Shelton did have the shocking semifinal run in Rome last year in one of their two tournaments together. That however was done over a series of singles-involved pairs. They’ll get specialists if they survive either way. Arneodo-Bergs pair for the first time. Although Bergs is green as far as doubles, six of his seven doubles matches in 2025 have gone the distance (2-5). I’ll forgive Bolelli-Vavassori’s loss last time out as perhaps one due to rust from not playing in three weeks. No excuses this week however and a tougher match-up means they have to prove it all over again.

The bottom half of this quarter looks wide open with Cabral-Miedler as the seeds, but ones that seem to do their best work in lower pressure situations. That’s not to say they can’t step up in class and they do have a workable early draw. It’s Goransson-Michelsen to open and then either Beijing finalists Khachanov-Rublev or Pavlasek-Romboli. The Russians may be a chic pick after last week, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat. They’ve lost all three of their career matches in Shanghai. Pavlasek-Romboli go for the first time together. I’m usually intrigued with most pairs that Pavlasek is involved in, so this one is on my radar. If they add to the Russians’ Shanghai woes, they could wind up being the pair that pushes through for a quarterfinal berth. Let’s see if Cabral-Miedler can step up with this set up. It looks possible for them to be in that quarterfinal mix, but there are some pairs that might say otherwise.

My Favorite: Bolelli-Vavassori
My Sleeper: Peers-Zielinski

I can envision an unseeded pair stealing the finals spot in this top half. Yes, Arevalo-Pavic are talented and LONG OVERDUE for another final, but that’s not a reason why they’ll make it this week. Bolelli-Vavassori would be the pair I’d trust more, but they have to get out of round one. I also think Skupski-Smith could be in line to finally get a win over a top tier team after losing close ones to both Bolelli-Vavassori and Arevalo-Pavic this year.

BOTTOM HALF

Third Quarter
Krawietz-Puetz are the lead seeds in this quarter. The Germans are still looking to lock down a spot in the Tour Finals field, so it’s a big chance for them. They split two matches, both super tie breaks, in their Shanghai debut in 2023. Their lone match since the US Open was a Davis Cup win almost three weeks ago. Rust could be a bit of an issue, but they’ll see a familiar foe in Doumbia-Reboul to open. They’ve won four of five from the French pair, but it was Doumbia-Reboul winning in Rome last time they met. This will be their first career hard court clash which should favor the third seeded Germans. Do Cash-Tracy get a shot for another signature win to add to their collection? The Americans do battle with veterans Bopanna-Rojer in round one. That pair has not played together since 2016. Bopanna comes in off his lone final of 2025 in Tokyo paired with Yuzuki. Bops made the final here in 2023 with Matt Ebden. I think that opener could be a banger. Cash-Tracy are definitely up and comers in the doubles division and they can creep closer to the top ten with some wins this week. They currently sit in 12th in the live race rankings.

The other half houses 2024 runners-up (7)Gonzalez-Molteni. They could be one and done with Gonzalez-Pel on tap in round one. That pair got their first taste of partnering up last week and looked solid. This should be a good opener. The other match pits Shang-Zhang, wild card entries, against Moutet-Muller. Neither Moutet or Muller has a good track record in doubles, so perhaps the homestanding Chinese pair can grab their first win together. Shang however has never won a doubles match (0-8), so something will have to give in this one. Either way, whatever Gonzalez-led duo advances out of the other match will be a big favorite to grab the quarterfinal spot. Gonzalez-Molteni continue to be a bit underrated on this surface, so don’t be surprised if they’re back in the quarters for a third time in Shanghai.

The two seeds are no given to square off in the quarters. I think the match that may give berth to a dark horse is that Bopanna-Rojer versus Cash-Tracy one. I really believe the winner of that one can be a contender out of this quarter. I’ll give Cash-Tracy the nod in that spot.

My Favorite: Gonzalez-Molteni
My Sleeper: Cash-Tracy

Fourth Quarter
The final quarter is led by (2)Heliovaara-Patten. The Beijing champs will be full of confidence after winning just their second title of the season last week. It had been a long time coming. Going against Arends-Johnson in round one will not be the easiest task. I still think that pair might be a bit short on reps, but you never know if that championship hangover will catch the seeds here or not. The winners probably see Melo-Zverev who look like they might be set up for an increasingly rare win. They face wild cards Ho-Yunchaokete. Those two do have experience together, but most of it came in Futures play back in 2022. This will be just their second ATP main draw match. Their first was at Wimbledon this year, a 6-3, 7-6 loss to Granollers-Zeballos. Given Melo-Zverev’s poor record with losses in six of seven this year, maybe even that one will be a surprise.

The other half sees Tokyo champs (5)Nys/Roger-Vasselin leading the charge. Andreozzi-Guinard could be a very tough out in round one if their form carries over from Beijing. The other match in this section is interesting, especially the Aussie duo of de Minaur-Hijikata. The Aussies will be playing just their third match together (0-2), but I like the potential. Cerundolo-Darderi are the opponents. Both singles players have plenty of reps in doubles, but both have a tough time winning consistently. Combined, they are 7-21 in doubles this season. I’m going with the Aussies and maybe I’m off, but I think they’re going to be pests against either the seeded French or Andreozzi-Guinard. Nys/Roger-Vasselin have the motivation obviously, but both of their previous finals trips in 2025 have seen them fail to get past the round of 16 in the following tournament.

I like the set up for Heliovaara-Patten again this week. Sometimes getting that elusive title can really open up for a great run of play. I think there might be a sense of relief, but in seeing him talk on his blog, it seems like they’re both very motivated to not fall off from last week’s form. If it’s a surprise unseeded pair, the Aussies are my dartboard pick while Andreozzi-Guinard might make more sense.

My Favorite: Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Andreozzi-Guinard

There are some intriguing unseeded pairs in this half, but I think it sets up better for a seed to grab the finals spot. The pair to watch out for if an unseeded duo gets it going might be Andreozzi-Guinard. They looked great in Beijing and if they upset the Tokyo champs right off the bat, then it is definitely game on. This should be a fascinating half to watch with two champions from a week ago looking to continue their hot form.

CLOSING TIME

While it was an unseed pair winning the titles here a year ago, Koolhof-Mektic were regular partners so it was not as big a surprise as some others might be. While there are definitely some danger duos in the unseeded field, I’m feeling a seeded champion this week. It feels like Heliovaara-Patten could get on a roll, so I think they’ll be in contention again. Getting back-to-back titles at this stage of the season is tough, so I don’t know that they’ll finish it off, but a finals trip is certainly do-able.

The top half is where I think some surprises could happen and that would be the half where I’m liking some of the unseeded pairs quite a bit. It’s hard to narrow it down since there are quite a few who look capable of doing damage. I still like Peers-Zielinski and I think Skupski-Smith the most with veteran laiden pairs that have experience pairing, albeit not as much as others. This is an opportunity for a team to get a big points gain, so there should be no questioning motivation at all. I’m expecting some surprises here and there, so let’s strap in for a fun week in Shanghai.

PIG PIX

Heliovaara-Patten
Skupski-Smith

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