WTA Beijing Preview

BEIJING NEWS & NOTES

*(5)Errani-Paolini won the titles in Beijing last year, 6-4, 6-4 over (7)Chan-Kudermetova. They won at 1.83 (-120), basically a 50/50 call for the final. The straight sets result was the first since this tournament rebooted in 2023 after the pandemic skipped much of the Asian swing from 2020-2022. Overall, it ended a streak of three years (2018-19, 2023) that saw super tie breaks needed to settle the score in the title match.

*The 2024 result also saw a seed win the titles in Beijing for the first time since 2018, ending back-to-back runs that saw all-unseeded finals in 2019 and 2023. There was still one unseeded pair in the semifinals to extend the streak to four runs in Beijing that have seen at least one unseeded pair make the final four. 2017 was the last time it was an all-seeded semifinals with seeds one through four making it that year. Previously, that had not been done since 2011.

*Don’t let seeing two seeds in the final last year fool you, seeds still struggled overall in Beijing in 2024. Five seeds lost their openers in round one with four of those hitting as underdog wins for the opposition. The biggest score came at 3.11 (+211) with the upset of (6)Mertens-Zhang. In all, there were seven underdog wins in round one and eleven for the tournament. All but one came in rounds one and two with the largest bark coming at 4.47 (+347) when top seeds Dabrowski-Routliffe lost to Mikhalikova-Nicholls in round two. There were 12 underdog wins in Beijing in the first year of the reboot in 2023 with seeded losses early fueling that run. Seven of eight seeds in 2023 lost their opening match.

*Super tie breaks were few in 2024 with only seven of the 30 completed matches needing the extra frame. Five of those came in rounds one and two combined. There were nine super tie break finishes in 2023. Rounds one and two were again the spots to find more of those with seven coming in the first two rounds. If you want to hunt one down late in the tournament, check out the semifinals. Seven of the last nine runs in Beijing have featured at least one of the semifinals needing a super tie break to settle the result.

*This year’s field is led by US Open champions Dabrowski-Routliffe as the top seeds. They’ll be seeking to get past the round of 16 for the first time in Beijing in their third trip. The two seeds are last year’s champs, Errani-Paolini. The Italians will be hunting history in 2025 as there has never been a repeat champion for the ladies in Beijing. Rounding out the top four seeds are Kudermetova-Mertens and the return of Hsieh-Ostapenko. Hsieh-Ostapenko will be pairing for the first time since losing the Wimbledon final. The Wimbledon runners-up are sitting in 6th in the live race rankings and can pretty much wrap up a spot in the year-end finals with a few wins this week. (6)Muhammad-Schuurs and (7)Babos-Stefani hold the 7th and 8th spots, while the last seeded pair, (8)Guo-Panova, are about 500 points behind Babos-Stefani as they hit Beijing. With 1,000 points going to the champion, Beijing is a huge opportunity for some of these pairs near the tail-end of the race rankings to cement themselves a spot in the finals.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

Unseeded pairs have accounted for four of the last six finalists in Beijing. That means we must focus on the unseeded field with 24 pairs outside of the seeded field. Here are the ones that stick out.

Krejcikova-Siniakova
Your worst nightmare as a seed is seeing doubles royalty back together again AND in the draw as an unseeded pair. That is the case with the Czech doubles queens who paired for the first time in over a year last week in Seoul. The results? Trophies as they did not drop a set in four wins. You can make a case that they’re the team to beat this week and you won’t get any arguments.

Danilina-Krunic
The French Open runners-up remain pesky any time they’re included in a draw. They won titles in Cleveland on an outdoor hard surface and took Muhammad-Schuurs to a third set before losing in the round of 16 in their last match at the US Open. They may get a shot at Dabrowski-Routliffe in round two.

Mladenovic-Zhang
We haven’t seen last year’s US Open runners-up since Dubai back in February. They have shown that the chemistry is still there, going 8-4 in early action in 2025. That included a quarterfinal run at the Australian Open, a final in Abu Dhabi and a semifinal last time out in Dubai. They’re also in the quarter with Dabrowski-Routliffe, making that a very intriguing portion of the draw that could spring a surprise contender.

Krueger-Pegula
The Americans are a fascinating duo to watch. They haven’t been big winners at any particular tournament at 3-4 this year, but they have been one of the tougher outs on tour regardless. Three of their losses came in super tie breaks and a fourth was due to an early match retirement. They could be on BANGER ALERT in round one versus Xu-Yang, but a win could really set them off to be a dark horse that could cause some trouble for seeds.

Joint-McNally
This was a pair that I pointed out in New York as one to keep an eye on. They disappointed with a 6-4, 6-1 loss to Siegemund-Haddad Maia, but that was only their third match together. Things clicked for them in Seoul last week, where they made the final and lost by a respectful 6-3, 7-6 in the final to Krejcikova-Siniakova. They’re in a tough quarter with Errani-Paolni and Guo-Panova, but they could certainly play the role of spoiler if they bring the confidence they gained in Seoul.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

With eight seeds in this 32 team field, there are bound to be tough round one matchups for seeds. I think it’s likely we will see a few struggle in what will be the first tournament for many post-US Open. Will they fall or will they battle through? Here are the ones that stand out as more likely than others to see either an upset or a very competitive battle.

(1)Dabrowski-Routliffe
The US Open champs obviously turned their Summer into a gigantic win with titles in Cincinnati and New York. There were still some bouts of inconsistency, but they found ways to win more often than not. Still, they come in without a match in three weeks and face a danger duo in Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova. The top sees do have six opening match losses in 2025 with two of those coming in their first match after a Grand Slam.

(2)Errani-Paolini
The Italians were solid in their semifinal run at the US Open and looked deadly in Billie Jean King Cup action last week. Why put them on the list then? Khromacheva-Sutjiadi are the opening foes. They have just one match together, but it was one that highlighted their potential. They lost 7-6, 7-5 to Townsend-Zhang in Montreal this Summer. It was their 1st match together against a team that came in hot off winning the Washington titles and went on to make the Montreal final. They may not pull off the upset, but it would not be shocking to see them take a set at least.

(7)Babos-Stefani
The 7th seeds arrive in good form having just won the Sao Paulo titles. This is an uptick in competition though as they’ll square off against Cirstea-Kalinskaya in round one. The Madrid champs have fallen off a bit with three straight losses, but they made the quarters at Wimbledon and you don’t often get to a Slam quarter by accident. Their last two losses did come in openers in Cincinnati and the US Open. They were competitive losses and I expect if they fail to produce the upset, we will see them at-minimum, make Babos-Stefani work hard for the win. The seeded pair have not lost an opener since Rome in early May, a span of ten straight tournaments.

(8)Guo-Panova
This pair has really come on this year, especially on hard courts at 15-6. They only dropped one opener in seven tournaments on this surface, so they are tough to beat early. I have them on the list though because of the unknown factor with two reputable doubles players in Rakhimova-Siegemund teaming up for the first time. Rakhimova has had more experience this year with multiple partners, while Siegemund is getting her first taste of doubles without Haddad Maia on the WTA Tour in 2025. They may amount to nothing, but they could also prove to be a formidable duo. We’l find out in real time.

DRAW PREVIEW

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TOP HALF

First Quarter
Top seeds Dabrowski-Routliffe headline the first quarter with (6)Muhammad-Schuurs as the seeds opposite of them. In the Dabrowski-Routliffe half, Danilina-Krunic stick out as the unseeded menaces lying in wait. Round one may not be straight forward either with Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova back together this week. It’s their first tournament since Cincinnati. They’ve had some bright moments, so you never know what could happen with both pairs having not played in a bit. I mentioned earlier that Dabrowski-Routliffe have lost both openers in their first match after Grand Slams they’ve played this year, so this one bears watching. Danilina-Krunic take on Linette-Tauson to start. That’s a pair that won their lone match of 2025 against Mihalikova-Nicholls. It could be a battle. I do think Danilina-Krunic would be the tougher out in round two.

In the bottom of the quarter, Muhammad-Schuurs get Chinese wildcards Shao-Zhang to open. Those two have never paired up, so advantage to the seeds in this one. The 6th seeds have been prone to an opening loss at times in 2025, but usually they take care of business against pairs that seem overmatched against them. I think that’s the case with this one. All eyes will be on Mladenovic-Zhang in the other first rounder as they take on another wildcard pairing in Hon-Muchova. Before discounting those first timers, do recall that Muchova made the Olympics bronze medal match in 2024 with a first time partner in Noskova. Hon made the Brisbane final to start the season with Kalinskaya, so both definitely have the game to succeed if they have chemistry. It would still be quite an upset if Mladenovic-Zhang lost. They have played eight tournaments together in their careers, only losing once in an opener. I do see the survivor of that one having a real shot to knock off Muhammad-Schuurs in round two.

My Favorite: Dabrowski-Routliffe
My Sleeper: Danilina-Krunic

Second Quarter
(3)Kudermetova-Mertens and (7)Babos-Stefani are the seeds in this section of the draw. Starting with the Wimbledon champs Kudermetova-Mertens, I think they’ll like their set up in this part of the draw. Tang-Wang may be overmatched in round one, so I think the seeds should be expected to start off well. The other match in this half pits Hunter-Krawczyk against Kato-Stollar. It just hasn’t clicked for Hunter-Krawczyk so far with a 2-5 record and opening losses in three of five tournaments. Kato-Stollar may present them an opportunity to score a rare win with those two teaming up for the first time. Kato has stumbled to an 8-23 record this year, while Stollar is a respectable 24-22. It’s hard to like them with Kato losing an astounding 13 of her last 14 openers with a variety of partners. There’s really nothing here that should stop Kudermetova-Mertens unless it’s something they pick up playing singles.

In the Babos-Stefani portion of the quarter, the 7th seeds have a much tougher draw. They open with Cirstea-Kalinskaya who have shown to be dangerous this year on all surfaces. That’s hurdle number one. Hurdle two will be the survivor between Krueger-Pegula and Xu-Yang. I know I highlighted the Americans in the unseeded menaces section, but don’t count out Xu-Yang. The Chinese pair have gone 2-1 in three straight tournaments on this surface with a win over Guo-Panova as the highlight at the US Open. They have also battled Babos-Stefani three times this Summer on hard courts. All three went the distance, but all three also found Xu-Yang coming up short. Could playing on home soil provide a difference? Babos-Stefani arrive with that form from winning Sao Paulo, but will clearly be facing stiffer competition this week.

It’s hard to fathom Kudermetova-Mertens being short of a quarterfinal with this set up, unless one of them picks up an injury in singles. That’s of course a caveat for most of the singles players choosing double duty. I think who they would play is really up-in-the air. You can make a case for any of the four pairs in that lower half. Kudermetova-Mertens have generally not lost to anyone but top tier or very formidable duos in 2025. I’m not saying that isn’t present to an extent in the lower half of the quarter, but I like their chances.

My Favorite: Kudermetova-Mertens
My Sleeper: Xu-Yang

BOTTOM HALF

Third Quarter
The return of (4)Hsieh-Ostapenko will be a site to see in Beijing. I don’t think it’s a big secret that they have to be pairing here with an eye on earning the points needed to qualify for the WTA Finals. That said, this is a legitimately rough draw for them. Chan-Jiang are their starters in round one. They have been decent this year at 6-5, but generally don’t match up well against the better teams on tour. The big one likely is coming in round two. The popcorn match. The one that might be worthy of a final. That’s where they are going to see Krejcikova-Siniakova. All due respect to Aoyama-Bucsa, I don’t see them pushing the Czechs too hard unless the doubles queens have an off day. So sign me up. Call your momma. Call your daddy. Call those fools who think doubles isn’t marketable and tell them to watch Hsieh-Ostapenko versus Krejcikova-Siniakova. It’s a tough call if Hsieh-Ostapenko find their rhythm or whatever you want to call what they do together when those results roll into the win column. Sometimes it defies explanation and that’s what can make them tough even for a team with the pedigree of Krejcikova-Siniakova. Do remember the Czechs beat a Hsieh-led pair last week in Seoul when they ousted Hsieh-Cristian in straight sets.

The other half features our dynamic duo Andreeva-Shnaider, who are seeded 5th. It’s hard to say a pair that are 29-10 on the year are disappointing, but that’s some of the feeling I have with them at this stage. They started off like gang busters with a title in Brisbane and narrowly lost in the Australian Open semifinals to Townsend-Siniakova. It looked like their trajectory was continuing up, up, up. After winning Miami, it seemed even more so. Where the disappointment comes in for me is their results against the top tier teams since then. The 6-0, 6-1 loss Errani-Paolini in the French Open semifinals and a 6-4, 6-2 loss to Kudermetova-Mertens in the US Open quarterfinals stick out. They’re fully capable, especially on hard courts, of steam rolling MOST pairs. Yet, the competitive edge/tactics seem to be lacking against the elite pairs. They’ll likely have to go through one to get to the semifinals in this quarter.

With all of that, they do look the part of quarterfinalists with this set up. I don’t think Mihalikova-Nicholls can match their power in round one if they play their “A” or “B” game. Round two might be more interesting than you think with Kenin-Kessler or Eikeri-Olmos waiting. Eikeri-Olmos are 0-2, but it was a super tie break loss to Siniakova-Townsend at Indian Wells and a loss to Babos-Stefani in straights in Miami. Kenin-Kessler pair up for the first time. The Americans both have plenty of doubles experience. Both seem better when paired with some more experienced partners, but there’s no telling how they might mesh. I’d still stick with Andreeva-Shnaider in this part of the quarter to get through.

Let’s not forget that one of Andreeva-Shnaider’s big wins in their 2024 coming out party was against Krejcikova-Siniakova at the Olympics. That’s not the same Czech pair you’re going to see in Beijing. And I’d almost guarantee that is a match they have circled in their minds if it happens as one they would LOVE to see and exact some revenge for that Paris loss. I’m a bit torn in this quarter, but I generally feel like whomever comes through that section where we may see Hsieh-Ostapenko battling Krejcikova-Siniakova, is going to ride that through to the semifinals.

My Favorite: Krejcikova-Siniakova
My Sleeper: Kenin-Kessler

Fourth Quarter
Let’s start with the half housing the defending champions (2)Errani-Paolini. I touched on their opener against Khromacheva-Sutjiadi earlier. I do think it will be competitive, but it’s hard to go against the Italians early in this section. The match opposite of this one will see Kichenok-Perez take on first timers Cristian-Fernandez. That’s an intriguing pairing. Cristian paired with Hsieh last week in Seoul, so maybe she picked up some new tricks? Fernandez comes in off the memorable quarterfinal run at the US Open paired with Venus Williams. The Canadian has some decent doubles results on her resume, but they get mostly buried by the others that rate mostly mediocre. Kichenok-Perez are 10-6 in 2025, but have struggled for consistency on this surface. They did make the Cincinnati semifinals to highlight what they can display at their best and that was a dazzler losing 12-10 in the super tie break to Dabrowski-Routliffe. What has followed is a 1-2 mark with a loss to that Fernandez-Venus combo at the US Open most recently. I’ll still side with them, but that may be the end of the road as Errani-Paolini might be just a bit too much in round two.

The other half is highlighted by (8)Guo-Panova, one of the real underrated pairs of 2025 and a genuinely nice breakout story. They’re firmly in that mix to make the WTA Finals, so every win they can get is big. I’m very interested to see how this Rakhimova-Siegemund pairing will fare in their first match together. They could be a tough puzzle to solve or they may have nothing to offer. I tend to think they’re going to be tough. It may be Joint-McNally awaiting the survivor. That’s a pair that looked the part in Seoul last week and should carry that confidence over against another first time team in Hozumi-Fang. Those two are experienced, so it will still be a test in my opinion. I do expect Joint-McNally to pass the test and be a real pest to whomever they face for a spot in the quarterfinals. Even though it was a loss, that final against Krejcikova-Siniakova likely instilled some good things for that pair, so they could definitely be sleepers in this section.

There are a lot of roads that lead to the semifinals with this draw. Errani-Paolini could well meet Guo-Panova in the quarters and it could also be neither of the seeds in that spot. I tend to think Errani-Paolini have a slightly better draw to do their part, but I can definitely see an unseeded pair working through the other half. Joint-McNally might be the “easy” choice based on recent results, but I think watch out for Rakhimova-Siegemund.

My Favorite: Errani-Paolini
My Sleeper: Rakhimova-Siegemund

CLOSING TIME

It’s been a little while since we’ve seen a clash of top four seeds in the final in Beijing. 2017 was the last time the top seeds won and 2018 was the last time it was two top four seeds facing off in the final. With the Czech queens lurking in the unseeded field, it would be short sighted to think that we will see a top four clash this time around. Then again, perhaps they’re not quite ready to run the gauntlet against the upper echelon pairs.

In all seriousness, I think this will be a much better litmus test as to the level of the Czechs. Last week was the tuneup for this week’s main course. Their inclusion in the bottom half conceivably makes the repeat attempt for Errani-Paolini more difficult, but that’s assuming they get to play each other in the semifinals. That’s not anything close to a given. In the top half, I do have a hard time looking past Dabrowski-Routliffe or Kudermetova-Mertens. I think that Kudermetova-Mertens have a better draw overall, but there are always the singles fatigue questions when you look at their chances. The third seeds do own a win over the US Open champs from Wimbledon, but it was tight (7-5, 7-6). A repeat on a surface that Dabrowski-Routliffe have ruled the last six weeks would be must-see viewing.

I’d love to fast forward to a Dabrowski-Routliffe versus Krejcikova-Siniakova title match. Why? Erin & Gaby own a 2-0 lifetime record over the Czechs with both wins coming back in 2023. Granted that was not the best season for the Czechs after the initial burst where they won the Australian Open and Indian Wells. They went just 9-8 after winning their first eleven matches. Are they better off now? Are Dabrowski-Routliffe EVEN TOUGHER TO BEAT NOW? Those are questions that would be wonderful to see answered. I hope that Beijing is going to provide us with some legendary matchups. Let’s hope the quality matches the hype!

PIG PIX

Kudermetova-Mertens
Errani-Paolini

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