ATP Beijing Preview

BEIJING NEWS & NOTES

*Bolelli-Vavassori are back to defend the titles in 2025. The Italians won the championship match as the top seeds last year over (3)Heliovaara-Patten 4-6, 6-3, 10-5. They were 1.72 (-138) favorites in the final. It was the second straight year that the top seeded pair won Beijing since the reboot in 2023 following a three-year hiatus due to the pandemic. The super tie break finish was also the second in a row in Beijing after the final had finished in straight sets in both 2018 and 2019. Bolelli-Vavassori are hunting to become the first back-to-back winners in Beijing since the Bryans back in 2009-2010.

*The top seeds have fared well at the China Open of late. Four of the last five runs in Beijng dating back to 2017 have seen the #1 seeds take part in the final. Three times, they have won the championship match. Interestingly, all three times needed a super tie break to settle.

*Super tie break finishes numbered six in 2024 out of the 15 completed matches. Four of those came in round one with just one involving a seeded pair. In 2023, there were five super tie breaks with only one coming in the opening round. Two came in the quarterfinals and then one in the semifinals and the final itself. Going back to the last year before the pandemic break in 2019, there were six STBs with five coming in round one. Round one looks like the place to focus for STBs with ten of the last eleven runs seeing at least three super tie breaks in round one.

*Seeds definitely have had a say in the business end in Beijing more often than not, but that doesn’t mean they get off scot-free in the opening round. Last year two of the four seeds went down in their openers. Two of the last three runs have seen two seeds go one and done. 2018 was the last time all four seeds made it through round one unscathed. It was also the last year that all four seeds made the semifinals.

*With seeds routinely falling early, what does that mean for our underdog count? Last year saw just two underdog wins in the tournament, but both were juicy at 4.00 (+300) and came in round one. Both involved a seeded team losing. 2023 also saw two underdogs barking, but they were very modest at 2.12 (+112) in round one and 2.02 (+102) in the final. Generally, this hasn’t been a great tournament for underdog hunters. Four dog wins in 2019 is the most since 2016 when nearly half the matches (7) went the way of the underdog.

*Unseeded pairs have routinely been a part of the semifinal mix with multiple unseeded semifinalists in four of the last six runs in Beijing. They haven’t had a lot of success lately in breaking through to the final. Only once in the last four runs of this tournament has an unseeded pair made it to the title match. 2019 was the only time an unseeded pair has won Beijing in the last five runs of the China Open.

*Four of the top six pairs in the latest ATP doubles rankings race are in the field this week. Cash-Glasspool lead the charge and they’ll be looking to end a three game losing skid. The Brits had a marvelous Summer, but have found those slim margins going against them lately with the first round exit at the US Open in two tie break sets and a three set loss in Davis Cup play in their last action. The seeded field also includes Arevalo-Pavic, Heliovaara-Patten and Bolelli-Vavassori. None arrive in the best of form, especially both British pairs that have three match losing skids. Heliovaara-Patten have seen their last five matches go the distance with only one win in that stretch.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

The unseeded field has a heavy singles presence to it with eight of the 12 unseeded spots in the draw going to singles pairs. Do any have what it takes to be a big threat in this draw and what of the other pairs? Here are the ones who stick out as ones to watch in Beijing.

Khachanov-Rublev
The Russians have been mediocre in limited play this season at 4-4 with three of those wins coming early in Hong Kong where they made the final. They’ve dropped four of their last five with three of those losses going to super tie breaks. This is the third time they’re playing Beijing with semifinal runs in both 2019 and 2023. They stand in the top quarter with Cash-Glasspool and given the Brits recent struggles and propensity to play extremely close matches, Khachanov-Rublev may have a shot to make it three for three in getting to at least the semifinals.

Doumbia-Reboul
A proper doubles pair is in the mix perhaps as you never know when they pull off one of their rare hard court runs. We saw that in Acapulco this year when they made the final and more recently with a quarterfinal finish at the US Open. They are in the Bolelli-Vavassori quarter, but they pushed the Italians to a super tie break in Washington early in the Summer. The Italians have only made it as far as the semifinals once in their last six tournaments, so this French pair may bear watching.

Melo-Zverev
They could be interesting sleepers in Beijing despite a poor record (1-5) when pairing in 2025. All those losses have come to top tier, regular doubles pairs. In this draw that could be Heliovaara-Patten again, but if someone does their dirty work first, then these two could be left to scoop up a spot in the semifinals or better.

Skupski-Smith
These two doubles “specialists” have some history together with a dozen career matches together, including three this season. They made the semifinals in Washington, their first time pairing since 2018. Overall, they are 9-3 together and that loss in the Washington semifinals was in a super tie break against Bolelli-Vavassori. It’s a tough road with Arevalo-Pavic up first, a pair that has not lost an opener since Dubai back in February. Still, that might be the best time for the upset and then it could be off to the races.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

History says there should be at least one upset of a seeded pair early in Beijing, but the match-ups do seem to favor the seeds this time around. Still, with some of them arriving with losing streaks, there could definitely be room to add to the upset history of this tournament.

(1)Cash-Glasspool
It’s Cobolli-Sonego up first for the Wimbledon champs. This is another one you might overlook, but both Italians singles players have plenty of doubles experience. Sonego made the Cincinnati final with Musetti. Cobolli has had more trouble finding the win column with a 3-11 record this year. These two have paired together previously, so with the Brits struggling a bit of late, this could be much closer than expected.

(2)Arevalo-Pavic
I touched on this one a moment ago. They get a tough draw with Skupski-Smith, but do have a solid streak of not losing early. Arevalo-Pavic have won their last 12 openers and only have the Dubai blemish as their lone one and done in 2025. A lot of those latest ones have been much better match-ups, so I do think there is some potential here with a pair of specialists who have experience together.

(3)Heliovaara-Patten
Even though it looks appetizing to get de Minaur-Davidovich Fokina teaming up for the first time, the Brits have been taken to the limit too often not to include this one. They have lost three straight and their last five have gone either to a third set or a super tie break. Neither de Minaur nor Davidovich have played much in doubles this year, but they have been fairly competitive when they do. Davidovich paired with Cobolli last in Toronto and they narrowly lost 13-11 in a STB to Cash-Glasspool. De Minaur comes in off a Laver Cup doubles win with Michelsen, so there will be some confidence for both.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s doubles draw

TOP HALF

The first quarter is led by the top seeds Cash-Glasspool. They may arrive on a three game losing skid, but it’s not like they’ve mailed it in after winning Wimbledon. Their last three losses include total of seven sets played with five tie breaks involved. They’ve lost all five of those tie break sets as the margins have been going against them after a long, long run of being on the right side. That’s just kind of men’s doubles sometimes, isn’t it? They open versus Cibolli-Sonego. I don’t see the Italians as pushovers in this one and I’m going to expect to see at least one tie break set and perhaps a super tie break finish to settle the score. If it was Musetti-Sonego who have more experience and success together, I might think upset. With Cobolli-Sonego having just one match under their belts from last year, I’ll give that edge to Cash-Glasspool. Still, if they rely on winning tie breaks, they always leave themselves open to an upset.

The other match in that quarter in round one pits Khachanov-Rublev against Cerundolo-Muller in a battle of singles pairs. The Russians have the big edge in experience as they’ve been teaming up for years. Neither Cerundolo or Muller have had much success on the doubles courts in 2025. Muller is 0-11. Cerundolo is 3-6. I’d be stunned if they mesh and step up to beat the Russians, but it is that time of year when odd results can become the norm. As for the quarter, I think it’s either Cash-Glasspool or Khachanov-Rublev. The Russians do about what you’d expect. They can beat some of the more middling doubles pairs and certainly have an advantage over many of the singles pairs, but once it’s a step up against the elite pairs: curtains. That may well be the end game in the quarterfinals against the top seeded Brits, but I’m hesitant to say it with authority just because they are playing so many tight sets lately.

The second quarter is where you find the defending champs, Bolelli-Vavassori. The fourth seeds open with Bonzi-Griekspoor. That’s a first time pairing of singles players. Griekspoor is 7-9 in doubles this season with a finals trip indoors in Montpellier early in the year with Stevens. Bonzi is 5-4 and likewise had one great result indoors, a title in Marseille with Herbert. Together, their chances seem much more diminished. I won’t be surprised to see a tight set or two in this one however with the Italians having played at least one tie break set in five of their last six. That includes the triple tie break match against Cash-Tracy in the US Open where they came up short in the round of 16. Survival sees the Italians against either Bublik-Musetti or Doumbia-Reboul. I touched on Doumbia-Reboul as potential unseeded menaces earlier. Bublik-Musetti have played a few matches together since 2022 with all previous results coming indoors (2-1). Doumbia-Reboul have lost their opener in four of their last five tournaments, so they’re far from immune to a loss even against this pairing. This really should be Bolelli-Vavassori’s semifinal spot to lose with this set up.

Are we headed to a seeded showdown in the semifinals with Cash-Glasspool against Bolelli-Vavassori? It would be the fourth time they’ve clashed in 2025. The Brits finally got on the board with a win when they last met in Cincinnati. The Italians won the first two in straights in Rotterdam (indoors) and Hamburg (clay). Bolelli-Vavassori are firmly in position (6th) to make the year-end finals and are not under immediate threat. Still, this is an ATP 500 and the more points they get, the closer they will be to clinching one of the eight spots. Cash-Glasspool are playing with house money having already qualified, so this stretch run is simply whatever they want it to be as far as effort. If an outsider slips into the mix, I feel like it would still be Doumbia-Reboul. Khachanov-Rublev have not had enough quality wins the last two seasons and often look overmatched against the upper echelon specialists. They’d see that in either seeded pair in this half.

My Favorite: Bolelli-Vavassori
My Sleeper: Doumbia-Reboul

BOTTOM HALF

In this bottom half, the third quarter normally would look like an absolutely smash and grab for (3)Heliovaara-Patten. Two first time singles pairs and a Melo-Zverev team that has not found a lot of deep success in tournaments in 2025. That said, look at the last three losses for the Australian Open champs: Frantzen-Haase, Lehecka-Mensik and Romboli-Smith. That’s not necessarily a who’s who of doubles pairs although both Frantzen-Haase and Romboli-Smith certainly have had their moments in 2025. Does that give de Minaur-Davidovich Fokina any hope in round one? I think they’ll see that Heliovaara-Patten are also one of the duos that has a propensity for playing tie break sets. They’ve seen at least one in seven straight matches and eight of their last nine overall. That always give the underdogs a shot if it comes down to the TB. Harri seems in good spirits if you read his blog and says that the conditions in Beijing suit the pair. Opposite of them is Melo-Zverev against Norrie-Bu. Bu has lost eight of his last ten doubles matches, including 0-5 this year. Norrie has shown the ability to step up and grab wins in doubles, but this is a tough pairing to predict. Heliovaara-Patten are the class here even amidst that losing streak.

The last quarter features (2)Arevalo-Pavic with arguably the toughest opener among the seeds against Skupski-Smith. As I said earlier, they have been so good at avoiding opening losses though, that you still have to like them in this spot. Skupski-Smith showed good chemistry still when they paired in DC this Summer with a tight 4-6, 6-3, 10-5 loss to Bolelli-Vavassori in the semifinals. They definitely won’t be without a chance if Arevalo-Pavic lack their “A” game. The other match in this quarter will feature a yet-to-be determined qualifier. The final qualifying match sees Andreozzi-Guinard squaring off against Arneodo-Gille. The winner slots in against Chinese wild cards Shang-Zhang. Zhang hasn’t played as much doubles as he did last year when he and Tomas Machac were a revelation in several tournaments. Shang? He’s 0-7 in his career in doubles. He has not played a doubles match since last June. You have to dig the specialists who survive qualifying in this spot. Both qualifiers played Hangzhou last week with Andreozzi-Guinard showing better with a semifinal finish. Don’t discount Arneodo-Gille though. They lost to Hangzhou champs Cabral-Miedler in round two in a super tie break. Arneodo-Gille have played super tie breaks in all three of their matches, so you might expect to see that last qualifying match go the distance. I’ll update who makes it on Twitter and whether it changes any thoughts for this quarter.

I don’t think Arevalo-Pavic are guaranteed to be in the final four mix. They have only made one semifinal (Wimbledon) since winning Rome in mid-May. Heliovaara-Patten definitely have the nicer path to push for at least a semifinal. They’ve made ten in 18 tournaments this season, but have failed to get that far since Eastbourne almost three months ago. If it comes down to seed versus seed, Arevalo-Pavic have won the last two in the series with Heliovaara-Patten after they beat them at Wimbledon in 2024. They have not met since last year’s Tour Finals where Arevalo-Pavic won 7-6, 7-6. I have Melo-Zverev as an unseeded menace to watch, but I think they need the seeds to get got by someone else. Keep an eye on who makes it out of qualifying, that could be a team with some juice in this half. Arneodo-Gille are the ones I am looking at more closely.

My Favorite: Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Skupski-Smith

CLOSING TIME

Does this draw set up for a finals repeat from 2024? You can make the case that both Bolelli-Vavassori and Heliovaara-Patten have the draws to make it happen. It’s quite possible we could see all four seeds in the semifinals this year, but I tend to think the lack of confidence for one of the pairs arriving on the losing streak may derail them short of that feat. With the top seeds doing such a bang up job in Beijing the last few runs, it’s hard to overlook Cash-Glasspool even with their recent struggles. I really think they just need to see the win column in round one to get themselves back on the proper path.

I tend to think with the bevy of singles pairs this week that it’s tougher to find one that you feel confident will make a deep run. That leaves just a few specialists in the mix to be dark horse contenders and even then, it’s still a bit tough to see in Beijing. I will say Skupski-Smith are one of the pairs that intrigues me the most, but they’ve got to get past Arevalo-Pavic just to get going. Of course when you think upsets are not going to happen, that’s usually when upsets run rampant, right? I’m feeling chalky regardless this week with a seed taking home the top prize. It’s always interesting this time of the year as the “grind” shows for some and is something others are able to put behind them in the quest for either a spot in the Tour Finals or just a chance to add to the trophy case at home. Let the Asian swing continue!

PIG PIX

Heliovaara-Patten
Bolelli-Vavassori

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