ATP Chengdu Preview

CHENGDU NEWS & NOTES

*Doumbia-Reboul set their sights on a three-peat this year in Chengdu. The French pair won their 2nd straight title here in 2024 by defeating (3)Bhambri-Olivetti 6-4, 4-6, 10-4 in the final. Doumbia-Reboul were the top seeds last year, marking the fourth time in the six year history of this tournament that the top seeds took the trophies. They were very slight favorites in the 2024 title match at 1.84 (-120). This will be the third straight year this tournament has been held after the pandemic led to Chengdu being skipped from 2020-2022.

*The super tie break finale was the third straight after the first three runs in Chengdu went down in straight sets. Overall in 2024, there were five super tie break finishes out of the 15 completed matches. All five came in the quarterfinals and beyond with three coming in the quarters. That total was up just one from 2023. The four super tie breaks that year were spread out with two in round one, one in in the quarters and then the other coming in the final.

*Underdog wins have been few since the restart here in 2023 with only four of the 29 matches going the way of the dog. Last year, both hits came in round one at 2.58 (+158) and 2.97 (+197). Neither involved a seed losing. In 2023, the dog wins came at 3.40 (+240) in a round one upset of the #3 seeds and at 2.05 (+105) in a quarterfinal that saw the #4 seeds lose.

*As far as the seeds go, they’ve been involved in both finals the last two runs. It was 1 versus 3 in 2023 and 1 versus 2 last year. 2024 featured all four seeds making the semifinals. That was a first in this tournament’s history. The first five runs had seen multiple unseeded pairs in the semifinal mix with an unseeded champion crowned in 2017 and 2019.

*Last year also marked the only time in Chengdu’s history that a seed had not gone one and done in the opening round of play. The previous five runs had seen at least one seed going out in their opener with the three seed being a culprit more times than any other. This year’s three seeds are Erler-Galloway and we will touch on any upset potential in just a minute.

*As one of the first tournaments of the Asian swing for the ATP, there is a good mix of regular pairs, semi-regular pairs and what appear to be one-offs for the week. The top two seeds are Harrison-King and Doumbia-Reboul, both recognizable regular pairings. The three seeds Erler-Galloway are newer, having only started their partnership this Summer during the North American hard court swing. They’re 4-3, but did make waves by upsetting Cash-Glasspool in round one at the U.S. Open. The four seeds are a first time team-up between Luke Johnson and Austin Krajicek. Some notable pairs in the unseeded field include Matos-Melo, Schnaitter-Wallner and surprise U.S. Open quarterfinalists Frantzen-Haase.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

There are a few pairs in the unseeded field that will definitely be ones to watch this week. Here are the ones who could make a deep run in Chengdu.

Matos-Melo
The Brazilians are 23-17 as a pair this season. While bigger tournaments haven’t always been the best for them, they do have a habit of producing big results on hard courts when the draws are depleted of some of the top notch talent on the doubles tour. We saw it from them in Winston-Salem this year and in Washington, DC last Summer.

Frantzen-Haase
They made the eventual US Open champs Granollers-Zeballos sweat a bit in the quarterfinals, losing 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. That’s one thing this pair has shown a propensity for with six of their eight matches going the distance. Their record is just 4-4 though, so they can have up and down moments. A win over Heliovaara-Patten to begin the US Open and that battle with the champs show that this pair can cpmpete with everyone on this surface.

Romios-Seggerman
They may be nothing for than a hot team that can’t hang when they step up from Challengers, but they’re worth noting. They are an oustanding 13-2 in limited action this year with titles in three of the five tournaments they’ve played. This will be just their 3rd main draw at the ATP level, but they didn’t look overmatched in going 1-2 at Wimbledon and the US Open combined. I like the part of the draw they’re in as well, so they could be a sneaky semifinal surprise.

Schnaitter-Wallner
The Germans have played a lot together the last season and a half with 103 matches in 2024 and 59 so far this year. They’re 100-63. They do most of their damage at Challengers, but they pop up from time to time at main draws to show they can hang with everyone. This year’s US Open was the latest example where they made the round of 16 and lost in three sets to … Doumbia-Reboul. That was their third battle with the French this year with all three going the distance. Those two pairs are in the same quarter.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Will 2025 see a return to at least one seed falling in their opener or are the seeds upset-proof? I think there is some danger lurking for the seeds this year, all of them.

(1)Harrison-King
You’d think a team that owns a spot in the top eight in the rankings might be immune, but if you’ve watched the Americans this Summer you know they’ve struggled. Five of their last six tournaments have seen them go out in their opening match. They face Lammons-Rojer who got their first taste of being partners at the Ghangzhou Challenger last week. Those reps could be helpful in making them pests in round one against the top seeds.

(2)Doumbia-Reboul
The two-time defending champs will likely have to work hard to avoid going down early with Kirkov-Stevens waiting in round one. That regular pairing has gone 30-14 with three Challenger titles among their six finals trips in 2025. If you look at Doumbia-Reboul’s track record in Chengdu, five of their eight career matches have gone the distance. So far they’ve been on the right side of those small margins, but this is likely to be another tough one that may require a STB to advance.

(3)Erler-Galloway
A win over Cash-Glasspool shows you that this pair can contend with anyone, but they’re another pair who takes plenty of matches to a third set/super tie break. Four of their seven matches overall have done just that, so I expect that Hidalgo-Trhac could put up a fight in this one. Those two paired for the grass court swing and had excellent chemistry going 9-2 with two finals trips at the Challenger level (one title). The big question will be if they can see the same results some three months since their last match together.

(4)Johnson-Krajicek
The questions start about how well this duo will mesh with Krajicek coming off Davis Cup play with Rajeev Ram and Johnson having played just two matches after a long injury layoff kept him out about six weeks prior to the U.S. Open. They will meet Darderi-Tabilo, one of the few singles pairs in the draw. They have experience playing Shanghai last year where they split two matches with both going to super tie breaks.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s draw

TOP HALF

The first quarter is led by (1)Harrison-King. The Americans are clinging to the #8 spot in the year-end race, leading Nys/Roger-Vasselin by 430 points and Doumbia-Reboul by 520. The plus for them is they have no points to defend, but they need to grab some wins to make these tournaments down the stretch count. Round one against Lammons-Rojer will be interesting. That pair haven’t had a ton of reps together yet, but with Harrison-King losing so many openers recently, it may wind up being a tight one. The survivor could see one of the UNSEEDED MENACES in the quarterfinals. Frantzen-Haase face Bopanna-Yuzuki, who are teaming up for the first time. Bopanna has gone 13-18 in 2025, partner hopping for the majority of it with Yuzuki set to become his 9th different partner this year. He’s just 2-9 on hard courts this year, so the expectation here will be to see Frantzen-Haase come through. You might even start this quarter thinking that Frantzen-Haase are the favorites based off their US Open run, but that propensity to go the distance will mean that the quarterfinal in this section may well twist and turn on a super tie break. The only team that would be a true surprise to emerge from this quarter is Bopanna-Yuzuki.

The second quarter houses (3)Erler-Galloway as the seeds. Their opener with Hidalgo-Trhac is the most intriguing of this quarter for me. I like how Erler-Galloway have competed thus far, but all of those matches going to super tie breaks/third sets also show that they teeter on the edge a bit too much for my liking. If Hidalgo-Trhac still have that chemistry from the Summer, they could get out of the gates with the upset. In the other match in this quadrant, it’s Matos-Melo against Chinese wild cards Cui-Te. They do have experience together (7-6), but this is a big uptick in level for them. Matos-Melo rebounded from their straight sets loss to Doumbia-Reboul in New York with a straight forward Davis Cup win last weekend. That momentum should help them get it cooking again this week back on the ATP Tour. The Brazilians went 0-2 during the Asian swing in 2024, but those were super tie break losses to Murray-Peers and Ram-Krajicek. I think they get their first win in this part of the calendar together and certainly will have expectations to be in the semifinals with this set up.

I’d be more shocked to see a seed come through this half and make the final than I would to see an unseeded pair. There are quite a few talented unseeded pairs in this section with Matos-Melo, Frantzen-Haase and potentially Hidalgo-Trhac would figure to have a realistic shot. I have Frantzen-Haase then Matos-Melo as my two to watch in this half. If a seed makes it through, it’s hard to go with the top seeds right now given their stretch of early losses. That said, one win can always go a long way in turning things around immediately.

My Favorite: Matos-Melo
My Sleeper: Frantzen-Haase

BOTTOM HALF

This third quarter is screaming loudly that any team here could take that semifinal spot. That includes Chinese wild cards Wang-Zhou who beat Doumbia-Reboul last year in Shanghai. I do think they will have a tough time getting past Romios-Seggerman in round one. Those two have just had the magic touch so far this year. That first rounder should be one they have an excellent shot to win and then I don’t think they will be out matched in the quarters. That is where we will see either (4)Johnson-Krajicek or Darderi-Tabilo. Krajicek’s season has really fallen off since that scintillating grass swing with Santiago Gonzalez. Since they won 12 of 13 on grass, the American lefty has is just 4-6 with four straight losses at the ATP level. It’s impossible to know if he’ll have some immediate chemistry with Johnson, so you have to give Darderi-Tabilo a legitimate chance to win in round one. This is a tough quarter to predict given the uncertainty of how the seeds may or may not gel, but I do like the fact that the unseeded pairs here all have experience together. This is another one where I think I’d be more surprised to see the seeds come through. I’ve seen some of Romios-Seggerman this year and they have been impressive. This stands as a big opportunity for them to prove themselves at the ATP main draw level.

The final quarter sees the defending champs (2)Doumbia-Reboul leading the charge. While you love what they’ve done here the last two years, it does give off a little “Fool’s Gold” vibe to think they’ll automatically be top contenders again. All those super tie breaks to get wins are great when you get them, but also show the slim margins they’ve been winning by in Chengdu. I’d venture to say they may add a couple more super tie breaks to their Chengdu tally if they navigate through this quarter. The plus going against Kirkov-Stevens is that those two do not have a win in 2025 over a pair that possesses the quality the seeded French can show. Still, it is an intriguing opener. If the champs get through, the quarterfinal figures to be even more harsh perhaps with an absolute BANGER ALERT set if it’s Schnaitter-Wallner. The Germans may have their hands full however in round one with singles pair Griekspoor-Sonego. Both have plenty of doubles experience, but none with each other. Remember earlier in the Summer, Sonego made the Cincinnati final paired with Musetti. The Italians had previous play and good chemistry to support that run however. I still think it’ll be a super competitive battle.

The best match in this half could be one in the quarters pitting Doumbia-Reboul against Schnaitter-Wallner for the fourth time this year. They split two matches on clay earlier in the year and Doumbia-Reboul won the most recent battle at the US Open. All three went the distance and really could have gone either way. Sign me up to see another showdown between the two, but it’s no lock to happen.Doumbia-Reboul’s history here is pristine at 8-0, but can they keep slipping by in super tie breaks? They’ve dropped their last three on this surface and stand at 2-3 in STBs on outdoor hard courts in 2025. For me they are certainly the more likely of the seeds, but I also don’t think they’re going to have an easy time if they manage to make a third straight final in Chengdu.

My Favorite: Doumbia-Reboul
My Sleeper: Romios-Seggerman

CLOSING TIME

We’ve only seen one unseeded versus unseeded finals match-up in the six year history of Chengdu, but this draw could become the second. All of the seeds have enough questions to me that none look like a certainty to be anywhere near the final. Doumbia-Reboul would be the more popular look for most, but their draw is tough. I’m going outside of the box this week looking at the unseeded field for my top two contenders. It should be an interesting start to the Asian swing!

PIG PIX

Matos-Melo
Romios-Seggerman