ATP US Open Preview

US OPEN NEWS & NOTES

*Aussies Purcell-Thompson got their break through moment of 2024 in New York as they defeated Krawietz-Puetz 7-6, 6-4 for the Slam title at last year’s Open. The 7th seeds were stout 1.46 (-217) favorites in the final. The title match in New York has been ridiculously in favor of the chalk in the final with the last underdog win in the last match coming in 2006! We know there is no repeat chance this year with Purcell still out serving a doping suspension.

*Unseeded pairs have been shut out from the championship mix since 2020 when Pavic-Soares won the pandemic version of the US Open. They are one of just two unseeded pairs to make the final since 2016. 2024 was the first time we had seen an all-seeded quarterfinals since the tournament began seeding 16 pairs in 1976!! Yes, 1976.
There had been multiple unseeded quarterfinalists each year between 2014 and 2023. I’ll take my chances saying we will see at least one unseeded pair in the last eight again this year and perhaps more than one.

*The championship match has seen a few more three set results lately with two of the last four runs going the distance. However, with that record of the favorites dominating the proceedings it has been mostly straight sets finishes for the better part of the last 15 years. The two recent three set finishes account for the only ones in that span with 13 of the last 15 finals going down in straight sets.

*As for three set matches overall, 2024 saw a fair amount with 21 of the 63 matches going all the way. Sixteen of those came in rounds one and two. Ten of those involved a seeded pair. The total was actually down from 27 three set matches in 2023. Seventeen of those came in rounds one and two. There were 22 three set finishes in 2022. Seventeen again came in rounds one and two combined. The trend has been steady in seeing the majority of those early three set hits involving seeded duos. Of late, the semifinals have produced at least one match going the distance in four straight years.

*Seeds have done a marvelous job the last two seasons at avoiding round one defeat. Only three of the last 32 seeds have gone down in round one. That is a change from the four years prior to 2023 as you see in the chart below. A top five seed had gone one and done in NINE straight runs of the US Open between 2014 and 2022. Keep an eye on those round one match-ups.

*Underdogs were sparse in 2024 with only 13 winning out of the 63 completed matches. That was down slightly from 16 in 2023. Look to round one for the juiciest hits in recent US Open history. The largest score of 2024 came in round one at 5.14 (+414) when Boyer-Nava upended Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin. The Americans would also tally the next biggest hit of the tournament in round two at 4.18 (+318). The biggest hit of 2023 was in round one when Barrere-Halys topped (10)Krawietz-Puetz as 4.52 (+352) dogs. The 2022 best price also came in round one when (5)Granollers-Zeballos fell to Demoliner-Sousa, who were at 5.39 (+439). If you’re hunting the “big one” then round one is your spot. It’s not necessarily a high volume round for dogs to win. For volume seekers, three of the last four years have seen multiple underdog winners in the quarterfinals.

*Cash-Glasspool come to this year’s Open as the unquestioned favorites in my mind. It’s difficult not to say that with a pair that is 25-2 since June 11th. It will be interesting however to see how they come off their first loss in two months after being beaten in the Cincinnati semifinals by Mektic-Ram. Let’s remember however that Purcell-Thompson did make the final at Wimbledon as well in 2024, but had a terrible time staying on court in the North American hard court swing in the Summer. Health forced them out of three of the five prep tournaments they played, but they were 5-0 in completed matches. Krawietz-Puetz were just 3-2 in a pair of lead-up tournaments to New York. And Ram-Salisbury had successive opening match defeats in Cincinnati and Winston-Salem in 2023 before running to their third straight US Open title.

*This year’s US Open may not have a huge impact on the year-end race up near the top of the rankings, but the pairs battling in those last three positions and the Frenchies on the outside looking in could make a big move this week.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

I already laid out the poor history of unseeded pairs as far as winning the titles in New York. That doesn’t mean they can’t impact the draw overall. We have seen at least one unseeded semifinalist in three of the last five years at the US Open. Let’s take a look at some of the pairs who could add their names to that list.

Hijikata-Pel
It would be silly to not include the pair that made the Wimbledon final on this list. It’s still their only tournament together, but wins over Arevalo-Pavic, Krawietz-Puetz and Matos-Melo highlight what they can do when they’re on. The question of course will be if there’s any magic left in New York after their surprise run in London? They have a chance to take out a seed in round one and if they get off with that early win, they’ll be one of those pairs nobody wants to see again.

Pavlasek-Zielinski/Behar-Vliegen
Neither duo arrives with much, if any form on this surface. Still, these are two danger duos that could shape some upsets. They’ve also split two matches so far this year with Behar-Vliegen winning on grass in a super tie break and Pavlasek-Zielinski returning the favor on clay. Pavlasek-Zielinski announced their presence in their first Slam together at Wimbledon with wins over Gonzalez-Krajicek and Bolelli-Vavassori. They also came up just short against eventual Cincinnati champions Mektic-Ram in their round one clash, 10-8 in a super tie break. Behar-Vliegen have not played a hard court match together, so there’s some question how they’ll do on the surface. Still, this is a pair that beat Cabral-Miedler twice on clay and even in losing both openers at the French Open and Wimbledon, they were highly competitive against Nys/Roger-Vasselin and Bolleli-Vavassori. Just a feeling that the winner could loom as trouble for Cabral-Miedler most likely in round two.

Cash-Tracy
The Americans had a good Grand Slam debut here a year ago, losing to Gonzalez-Molteni in a tight three setter in round two. They were a point or two away from stopping the Hikikata-Pel story in round two at Wimbledon, losing in a third set tie break, 13-11. They’ve been competitive when they have stepped up in the level of competition that they’ve faced, but they are missing a “signature” win. If they’re going to get one, doing it on home soil would be one of those great stories. They may get another crack at Bolelli-Vavassori whom they lost to 6-3, 7-6 in Cincinnati. Both would just need to win their openers.

Gonzalez-Krajicek
They have significantly cooled off since their sizzling Summer on grass, but they still pose a significant threat. (10)Gonzalez-Molteni will find that out right away as they match up against them. Gonzalez-Krajicek can make a statement in round one if they take out the two-time US Open quarterfinalists. It would also be a huge confidence booster that could help them ride through a few rounds in New York. Even when he hasn’t been involved with a deep run, Krajicek has always been a tough out at his “home Slam” with different partners.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Early upsets have really dried up in New York the last two seasons with only three seeds out of 32 losing their first round matches. Prior to that however, there was a good run for underdogs against seeds in openers. That included some top five seeds going down in their openers. It’s still worth a look at the toughest matches for seeds to start off their US Open campaigns.

(9)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
A rough opener could be waiting the French pair as they square off with Wimbledon finalists Hijikata-Pel. The French had an okay Summer at 5-3 with the Washington final being their best result. They have been solid at Slams in 2025 with two quarterfinals and semifinal in the first three. Two of those three runs featured a first round match that was stretched to three sets. This could make it three of four. It might be the best time to catch Hijikata-Pel as they try to recapture their London magic. This is one I have highlighted to watch for round one.

(10)Gonzalez-Molteni
I laid out this match-up earlier with the seeds battling Gonzalez-Krajicek in round one. Gonzalez-Molteni were steady during the Summer prep with a 5-3 record, including a semifinal run in Toronto. They’ve also managed two quarterfinals in two trips to New York, very much an under-the-radar seed. Gonzalez-Krajicek do own a win over them on grass in Mallorca this Summer in a super tie break. I’m expecting a banger in this round one clash and it could well come down to a third set tie break to decide a winner.

(15)Doumbia-Reboul
The French veterans will play the US Open for just the second time, having lost their debut back in 2023. They arrive on a four match losing skid that includes three straight opening losses on hard courts this Summer. The plus for them is they get a cold pair in Goransson-Verbeek who have lost four of five on hard courts this swing and seven of their last nine tournament openers. Still, Goransson-Verbeek are always competitive in those matches, so this figures to be a close one.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s doubles draw

TOP HALF

First Quarter
The best thing going in men’s doubles right now are the top seeds, Cash-Glasspool. Their 22 match win streak was ended in the Cincinnati semifinals, but I see that as a positive. To me, there would be a ton more pressure on them coming into this tournament with that monster win streak still active. You can also say that it perhaps helps refuel them for another run at a Slam title. All they have done this Summer is win with a 25-2 record since the grass season began back in early June. The other seed in their half of this quarter is Doumbia-Reboul, a pair that I had already touched on earlier as potentially shaky to survive round one. The 15th seeded French get Goransson-Verbeek to start. Survival there still means a quality and tough opponent in round two with Dodig-Murray or Matos-Melo waiting. Matos-Melo come in hot off the Winston-Salem titles, while Dodig-Murray play for just the second time in 2025. You can’t discount Dodig-Murray here in spite of the form of the Brazilians. Don’t forget Matos-Melo were 1-3 on outdoor hard courts before Winston-Salem, albeit with those losses coming to quality pairs. I like the survivor of this match to scoot through to the round of 16 to oppose Cash-Glasspool. If the Wimbledon champions fall before the third round, it would be a massive upset.

On the other side of this quarter, (7)Bolelli-Vavassori lead the pack. The Italians turned in their best US Open performance in two tries in 2024 when they lost a heart breaker in a third set tie break to eventual runners-up Krawietz-Puetz. Bolelli-Vavassori got their hard court swing off to a scorching start with titles in Washington, but have only split four matches since that title run. The losses were not poor with Gonzalez-Molteni and Cash-Glasspool grabbing the wins with three of the four sets going to a tie break. Their first test likely comes in round two via Cash-Tracy or Arneodo-Bopanna. Arneodo-Bopanna played for the first time in Winston-Salem with a win and a loss. I’ll take the home standing Americans Cash-Tracy to advance, but it won’t be easy. Cash-Tracy did lose to Bolelli-Vavassori earlier in the Summer, but they were not totally outclassed. It would be intriguing to see a rematch in round two.

(10)Gonzalez-Molteni are the seeds opposite the Italians and they get the BANGER ALERT in round one against Gonzalez-Krajicek. It will be their 2nd meeting of 2025 with the first going the distance in favor of Gonzalez-Krajicek on grass. The 10th seeded Argentinians have shown versatility with two quarterfinal runs in New York , a quarterfinal at Wimbledon back in 2024 and a quarterfinal at the French Open in 2023. They may need only to avoid this early defeat to have a shot to add to their Slam resumes. There is little doubt to me that the pair that comes out of this match gets into the round of 16. If it’s Bolelli-Vavassori on the other end, Gonzalez-Molteni are 3-1 against the Italians. That included three straight wins with the last two coming on hard courts. Again, sneaky good seeds here who might just make another quarterfinal.

The question in the end is whether or not a team steps up to stop Cash-Glasspool shy of a semifinal? The Brits haven’t failed to make at least a semifinal since the French Open, a run of six straight tournaments (five finals). Bolelli-Vavassori have won two of three from the Brits, but it was Cashpool taking the most recent in double tie break sets in Cincy. Gonzalez-Molteni split two matches with them last year when the Brits first started pairing. It’s not a foregone conclusion for me that Cash-Glasspool get through if it’s one of those two pairs going against them in the quarters.

My Favorite: Cash-Glasspool
My Sleeper: Gonzalez-Molteni

Second Quarter
The top two seeds in this quarter are (3)Heliovaara-Patten and (5)Granollers-Zeballos. Let’s start with Heliovaara-Patten’s half where this year’s Australian Open champs have stumbled on this Summer swing with just one win in three matches. All three went to super tie breaks. They’ve still been steady at Slams with quarterfinals at both the French Open and Wimbledon. Last year in their maiden voyage at the US Open, they crashed out in round three rather harshly 6-2, 6-2 to Koolhof-Mektic. I do think they got a nice draw here with (13)Arends-Johnson as the seeds in their path to the round of 16. Don’t sleep on Frantzen-Haase making the third seeds work hard in their opener, but I expect Heliovaara-Patten to pass the test. Luz-Olivetti would be the trickier second round foe for the seeds here, so keep an eye on whether or not they advance. They played once this year at the Madrid Challenger and barely lost out to Cabral-Miedler in the semifinals in a super tie break. They can go.

Arends-Johnson were looking like break out threats after making the quarterfinals at the French Open, but an injury to Luke Johnson took that pair out for the Summer. Arends has played with a few different partners and showed good success with a Bastad title run with Andreozzi and a quarterfinal in Toronto. Don’t forget Arends-Johnson started 2025 with a bang by winning the Hong Kong titles on this surface. If they get it going again, they’re a threat. I would expect them to get past Bellutti-Marozsan, even if they’re working out the kinks from time off from each other. Round two looks very winnable as well with singles pairs Etcheverry-Ugo Carabelli or Dzumhur-Kovacevic waiting. If they’re healthy, expect Arends-Johnson to have a shot to play for a quarterfinal berth with this set up. Even if it’s Heliovaara-Patten, I really do like their chances if they get back on track with the early wins for confidence.

In the Granollers-Zeballos half, the French Open champs get back on court for the first time since losing in the Wimbledon semifinals to Cash-Glasspool. I don’t worry about their lack of prep as it is something they have done quite often before Slams in their careers. What is disturbing is their lack of consistency in New York. They’ve made the final once (2019) and two quarterfinals, with the most recent one coming last year. The five seeds have also lost in the opening round twice and been stopped in the round of 16. They look to have a nice early draw with a lot of singles players in their path. I don’t expect Kecmanovic-Medjedovic to test them too harshly in their opener. Round two may see them up against a bit better pair with wild cards McDonald-Quinn battling another wild card duo in Hildebrand-Trhac. McDonald specifically has shown himself capable on the doubles court and Quinn has at least been competitive with minimal play this year. I still don’t see Granollers-Zeballos falling short of round three.

On the other side it’s (12)Cabral-Miedler. If you have read any of my stuff this Summer, you’ll know I am high on these guys. They just keep winning with a 32-12 record. They come in off a Winston-Salem finals loss to Matos-Melo in a super tie break, but they have proven they can win on surfaces other than clay in doing so. It’s Barrientos-Lammons teaming up for the first time to oppose them in round one. I’ll take the seeds. Their second round match is going to be a banger against either Pavlasek-Zielinski or Behar-Vliegen. The winner of that opener is going to be a tough out. Behar-Vliegen should be the ones that Cabral-Miedler do not want after dropping two matches to them on clay this Spring. I can definitely see an upset in round two and that might benefit Granollers-Zeballos the most in this draw.

This is as intriguing a quarter as I think you’ll find in this draw. While the brand names are with the higher seeds, the lower seeds and a few unseeded menaces may well have something to say about who advances out of this quarter. An all-seeded round of 16 could happen here, but I’d be surprised if a pair like Behar-Vliegen or maybe a bigger shock like Luz-Olivetti don’t prevent that from happening. Thirteen has actually been a lucky number in New York over the last three years with two #13 seeds making the men’s semifinals. Arends-Johnson anyone?

My Favorite: Granollers-Zeballos
My Sleeper: Arends-Johnson

BOTTOM HALF

Third Quarter
2024 runners-up (4)Krawietz-Puetz are the highest seeds in this quarter. Their half also sees (14)Bhambri-Venus in the mix. As for the higher seeded Germans, it was an okay prep run for the US Open with a 3-2 mark in two tournaments. Losses to Cash-Glasspool and Mektic-Ram are certainly nothing to be ashamed of this Summer. This is just the third trip to New York for Krawietz-Puetz who were beaten in their debut match back in 2023 before last year’s finals’ run. Four of their seven career matches at the USO have gone to three sets. Will they need that to fend off Mahut-Mpetshi Perricard in round one? It’s the first time pairing for the Frenchmen with this also marking Mahut’s last ever Grand Slam tournament as he has previously announced that 2025 is his final year on tour. Mahut won one of his five career Grand Slam titles in New York back in 2015 with Pierre-Hugues Herbert. It hasn’t been a pleasant going away tour for Mahut with an 0-5 record this year that includes opening losses at the French Open and Wimbledon. It’s tough to see the French changing that luck in this spot. Likely, Krawietz-Puetz get Nouza-Rikl in round two. That’s one you should watch. Nouza-Rikl won the titles in Kitzbuhel most recently and the Czechs have proven to be a tough out across all surfaces.

In the Bhambri-Venus section of this half, the two veterans have been highly competitive since reforming in late July. Their record is only 3-4, but six of those matches have gone to a super tie break. None of the losses rate as poor and you can argue that the three set format is a good benefit to them with some larger margins than they’ve seen in those super tie breaks. Giron-Tien are first up for them. Those two are a combined 4-15 in doubles play this year. The ones to watch in this section may be Borges-Rinderknech who won a couple matches together at the French Open this year. If they get out of round one, Bhambri-Venus will be challenged in round two with an upset as a real possibility to me. There are some tricky matches in this part of the quarter that could keep it from being seed versus seed for a spot in the round of 16. Krawietz-Puetz are still the class of this section though, so it would be a bit surprising if they didn’t find a way through. I’m still a believer in Bhambri-Venus though, so I think they can be a factor in figuring out who makes it.

The other half sees (8)Harrison-King and (11)Mektic-Ram. Mektic-Ram are red hot off that Cincinnati title run that really came out of nowhere. They had struggled a bit in their first two tournaments with a 1-2 record and being outplayed against Salisbury-Sjkupski and Arevalo-Pavic in those losses. That turned around in Cincy where they scored impressive victories over Krawietz-Puetz, Harrison-King and ended the win streak of Cash-Glasspool. I don’t have them on upset alert in round one, but Andreozzi-Guinard are two capable vets teaming up for the first time. I still like Mektic-Ram there and they may see last year’s surprise American pair in Boyer-Nava. The Americans had never paired prior to the 2024 version of this tournament, but scored two impressive wins over Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin and Cash-Galloway before falling in three to Skupski-Venus. I don’t know if they’ll have that same sorcery going this time around, but Mektic-Ram should be alert.

Harrison-King got some needed wins in Cincinnati, but still come in with some fairly disappointing Summer reviews. The Americans have lost six of their last eight that included a stretch of four straight one and dones. Getting that monkey off their back in Cincy was big and I don’t see them struggling with Altmaier-Martinez. One that may be more challenging is round two if Romboli-Smith can get past Bublik-Demoliner. Romboli-Smith have not fared well against the elite in doubles for the most part, but they do have a scalp of Heliovaara-Patten in Toronto this Summer. This is their third Slam together with a French Open third round finish being their best. I’m not sure I trust Harrison-King to do their part to meet Mektic-Ram in this section. They have just been a bit too inconsistent this Summer. On home soil though, anything is possible.

I’d imagine Mektic-Ram are going to be a hot pick to make the semifinals for most in this quarter. I can’t blame anyone for going that route because that’s the route I am traveling. Ram has had some of the most special moments in his career on these courts with three of his four career men’s Grand Slam doubles titles coming here alongside Joe Salisbury. The set up looks decent for them to make a probable quarterfinal run if they can keep that scorching form going. That could set up the revenge spot though for the 4th seed Germans, Krawietz-Puetz. I don’t see this as a quarter where an unseeded team looks likely to go all the way through. There are a few that could cause some early ripples in the pond, but I think in the end it’s a seed coming out of this part of the draw.

My Favorite: Mektic-Ram
My Sleeper: Bhambri-Venus

Fourth Quarter
The final quarter starts with (2)Arevalo-Pavic whose record is great at 41-13, but they have only won three titles in 2025. Their season looked destined for greatness after they swept the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami, but Rome has been their only title since that feat. They were still super solid at Wimbledon with a semifinal loss to Hijikata-Pel in a third set tie break that they will feel they should have won. Their Summer was solid with back-to-back quarterfinals in Toronto and Cincinnati, but they were stopped by Salisbury-Skupski both times. Guess who is on the other side of this quarter? Of more immediate concern may be the 16th seeded Aussies Ebden-Thompson who could be on a collision course to meet the 2nd seeds in the round of 16.

The Aussies could not repeat their defeat of Cash-Glasspool in Cincinnati, but that 10-8 super tie break loss still shows that they are a treacherous foe for all. I don’t see a ton in their way early in this draw and with Thompson already out in singles, that may bode well for the physical toll of a deeper run. I would like to see Peers-Withrow get a W in round one to set up a showdown with the Aussies in round two. Peers-Withrow stuck with Krawietz-Puetz in Cincinnati in their first tournament together for a set, losing in a tie break. It unraveled from there quickly, but it felt like there might be something to this pairing if they can gain some confidence. Overall though, you really have to like the chances of seeing Arevalo-Pavic and Ebden-Thompson bang heads in the round of 16 for that quarterfinal berth.

In the other half of the draw, (6)Salisbury-Skupski withdrew from Winston-Salem after winning a couple of matches last week. That may have been more precautionary than anything after making the Toronto final and Cincinnati semifinals in the weeks prior. No need to risk a burn out in the week before a Grand Slam. If their fitness is not a question, this draw looks tailor-made for a shot at another Slam quarterfinal. They’ve got two of those to their credit with the French Open also breeding their first Slam final together. Rounds one and two really shouldn’t provide much resistance if they’re focused and back in-form. Nys/Roger-Vasselin are the seeds opposite of them. The French are trying to hunt down a spot in the year-end race, currently on the outside looking in from the #9 spot. A big run at the US Open could really jump start a realistic shot to sneak into the 8th spot. Having Hijikata-Pel first is going to be a rough start potentially, but it also might be the time to catch the Wimbledon runners-up before they rekindle their magic touch.

Do we get Arevalo-Pavic versus Salisbury-Skupski Part Four? The Brits hold a 2-1 advantage with both wins coming during this North American hard court swing. A bit surprisingly, only one of the three matches has gone the distance. Arevalo-Pavic may feel it’s their time to make amends for their semifinal loss to Krawietz-Puetz here a year ago. They really should have put the Germans down in two sets, but let them steal the second set tie break and then got the best of Arevalo-Pavic in set three. I’m sure they’d love to turn the tables on Salisbury-Skupski to boot! I think the squeaky wheel in this quarter is absolutely Ebden-Thompson. Thompson may not have Purcell to complete a true repeat this year, but he can embark on his own repeat championship run with another Aussie in tow.

My Favorite: Salisbury-Skupski
My Sleeper: Ebden-Thompson

CLOSING TIME

I have a hard time finding an unseeded pair that I see as a realistic contender with how this draw is set up. So for me, it’s sticking to the seeds for picks. That said, it doesn’t mean that a top four seed is any sort of shoe-in here. Cash-Glasspool may be hard to pick against, but remember the top seeded pair in New York has only won three times since 2014. So what’s my flavor in the men’s draw? It might be the OTHER British pair’s time. Salisbury-Skupski were so close at the French Open and they’ve continued to be a threat weekly since that run. They carry a little bit of the Purcell-Thompson vibe for me this year, a pair that had a hurtful loss in a Grand Slam final but seem hungry to make amends if they get another chance. They’re my top choice.

I’m also going to include a pair stuck in the same quarter because I feel they have that true double digit seed, dark horse potential. That’s Ebden-Thompson. Both players have been to a final in New York before and there’s definitely some superb chemistry between these two. Granollers-Zeballos are the other ones I like. They’ll likely have to earn some HUGE wins with Heliovaara-Patten and Cash-Glasspool in their half, but they do have a win over Heliovaara-Patten, while Cashpool beat them at Wimbledon. They might need someone like Bolelli-Vavassori to do the heavy lifting against Cash-Glasspool, but in any case, they’re part of my trio of picks. Enjoy the tournament!

PIG PIX

Salisbury-Skupski
Granollers-Zeballos
Ebden-Thompson