ATP Cincinnati Preview

CINCINNATI NEWS & NOTES

*Arevalo-Pavic are back to defend their 2024 Cincinnati Open titles. This year’s top seeds won the titles last year as the four seeds. They were monster 1.31 (-331) favorites in the title match against ”singles pair” McDonald-Michelsen. The 6-2, 6-4 result was the third straight sets finish in Cincy in the last four years. The Bryans are the last pair to win back-to-back titles here, doing so in 2013-2014.

*Unseeded pairs have done well to crash the final in recent times. Gonzalez-Molteni are the last unseeded champs, winning the titles in 2023 in an all-unseeded final. Four of the last five finals in Cincinnati have featured at least one unseeded pair with two unseeded champions in that mix. There have been multiple unseeded semifinalists in five straight runs of the Cincinnati Open.

*Being the top seeds here has not been absolute poison as we see in quite a few stops on the ATP Tour. It has been a few years though since the top seeds won with Ram-Salisbury the last to do it in 2022. Interestingly, every other year in a six run span dating back to 2018 has seen the top seeds stopped short of the quarterfinals. 2025 would be one of the “other” years if that trend continues where the top seeds would fall short of making the last eight.

*As for seeds and their early record, last year only one of the eight seeded pairs lost their opener. That was the two seeds, Bopanna-Ebden, off the first round bye. 2023 was a blood bath for the seeds with five falling in their first match, including three of the top four seeds. 2022 saw three seeds go one and done, including one top four seed and 2021 followed suit with the # 1 seeds Marach-Pavic being among the three seeded victims in the opening rounds.

*Underdogs didn’t have a huge year in 2024, but there were eight dog scores overall. That included two big hits courtesy of McDonald-Michelsen at 3.57 (+257) and 4.06 (+306). There were three hits each in rounds one and two. That was down overall from 12 underdog wins in 2023 when a lot of the seeds fell early. And there was another dozen dog bites in 2022, so perhaps 2024 was a bit “off” from the overall theme in Cincinnati recently. If that trend in 2022 and 2023 is more of what to expect, simply pay attention to matches involving seeds. You may find some juicy potential in those matchups.

*Super tie breaks were plentiful in 2024 with 12 of the 26 matches needing the extra frame. Nine of those came in rounds one and two combined. Two of the quarterfinals also hit with STB finishes. 2023 had even more with 14 matches going the distance. An astounding eleven of those came in rounds one and two. Keep focused on those first two rounds for STBs with at least nine coming in rounds one and two each run in Cincinnati since 2019.

*There are some interesting combinations this week with some of our doubles specialists going nomad or continuing their nomadic ways. Rohan Bopanna is back with his 7th partner of 2025, choosing Ethan Quinn in Cincinnati. He spent the grass swing with Sander Gille who was playing the Euro clay swing the past few weeks. Austin Krajicek pairs with Mackie McDonald for the fifth match together. They’ve looked pretty solid in that limited experience and are ones to watch early on. Other oddball combinations include Doumbia-Nakashima and what might be the split of a long-time American pair with Lammons-Withrow both playing, but with different partners. Withrow pairs with Peers, while Lammons runs with half of the Wimbledon surprise finalists in Pel. There are also a whole host of “singles pairs” in Cincinnati that I will touch on more below in the draw preview.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

With the runs of unseeded pairs in Cincinnati over the past few years, it pays to look at the unseeded field to see which ones might crash the business end of the tournament this year.

Gonzalez-Molteni
You can’t exclude a pair that won this tournament in 2023. The Argentinians did crash out in round one here a year ago, but their hard court form is solid enough to consider them a threat. They made back-to-back semifinals in DC and Toronto with marquee wins over Harrison-King and Bolelli-Vavassori.

Pavlasek-Zielinski
I’m pleased to see this pair back in action after they started up at Eastbourne on grass and showed some good chemistry with wins over Gonzalez-Krajicek and Bolelli-Vavassori at Wimbledon plus a finals run on clay in Bastad in July. They’re an interesting pair to monitor in a quarter with Krawietz-Puetz and a struggling Harrison-King.

Krajicek-McDonald
This is a total gut feel with the two Americans having paired up just four times prior to this week. They played Indian Wells in 2023 and Eastbourne last year. They showed well against more experienced pairs in Bolelli-Fognini and Ebden-Peers in super tie break losses. They have a chance to get going early by playing another oddball combo in Doumbia-Nakashima, but the American duo should have an edge in chemistry. You win one and then who knows?

Ebden-Thompson
If you’re a doubles fan, you’re giddy to see the two Aussies teaming up again. Their one tournament together this year produced a title run in Hertogenbosch. The Aussies also stand as the last team to beat Cash-Glasspool back on June 14th in that tournament final. Why is that important? If both pairs win their openers, it’s a repeat of that final in ROUND TWO in Cincinnati. Sign. Me. Up. Banger. Alert. This team could turn the draw upside down early.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Here is a look at the seeds who look most prone to losing their opener in Cincinnati.

(3)Heliovaara-Patten
Watch out for this opener pitting the Australian Open champs against singles pair Lehecka-Mensik. The Czechs are 4-2 this year, making the Brisbane final. Their two biggest matches came against Cash-Glasspool (STB loss in Brisbane) and Arevalo-Pavic (7-6, 7-6 in Toronto). They may have been losses, but they were extremely close and with both having big serves, they can stick in this one. The big plus for Heliovaara-Patten has been their elite ability to avoid early losses. They have ONE opening match loss and that was match #1 this year in Brisbane. They may survive here, but I do think it’s going to twist on the smallest of margins.

(5)Salisbury-Skupski
It’s a sketchy first round affair with the Canadians Auger Aliassime/Shapovalov. That pair has plenty of experience together and they made the Halle semifinals earlier this year. Salisbury-Skupski are in a great form after making the Toronto final, but could there be some lingering stank from seeing Cash-Glasspool beat them in a super tie break again — where they have four match points?! I expect this one to be tight and FAA-Shapo are capable of stealing a win.

(7)Harrison-King
The Americans are stumbling into the back portion of the season having lost five straight and four consecutive tournament openers. Those numbers may bump up again with Goransson-Verbeek as the first foes. They broke their own five match skid in Toronto before losing a super tie break to Gonzalez-Molteni (10-8) in the following round. Harrison-King blew past this pair in Rome this year in straights, but Harrison-King seem to be lacking confidence now.

(8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin
The French are going to see another singles pair this week after losing their second round match to Fils-Shelton in Toronto last week. In Cincinnati, it will be Darderi-Tsitsipas. While we don’t know if they will have any chemistry, they certainly could make things interesting. The seeded French are another team that have been great at avoiding early losses with just one in 15 tournaments.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s doubles draw

TOP HALF

Arevalo-Pavic get familiar singles pairing Khachanov-Rublev to start their quest to repeat in Cincy. After a surprise finals appearance to start 2025 in Hong Kong, the Russians have lost three openers in their last four tournaments. The sets may be close, but I think Arevalo-Pavic pass the test. The other match in this quadrant is quite intriguing with Bopanna-Quinn battling Melo-Zverev. Melo-Zverev are just 15-20 all-time as a tandem with an 0-4 mark this season. They have done well in Cincy with a 3-2 record in two trips. All three wins were as underdogs, so keep that in your back pocket. Bopanna-Quinn are tough to project until they hit the court, but Melo-Zverev may pick up their first win this year.

The bottom half of the first quarter sees (5)Salisbury-Skupski as the seeds against Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov to start. I already talked up the Canadians shot at getting a win in this one. Even with the Brits playing well, I do expect a competitive battle. The match opposite of this one features one of my unseeded menaces in Krajicek-McDonald. The Americans square off against Doumbia-Nakashima who have never paired up in the past. I think there’s an edge for Krajicek-McDonald, but they need a fast start. Even with the seeds in good form, this feels like a section where a surprise may step up. Krajicek-McDonald are my pick if that happens with FAA-Shapo rated right behind them.

In quarter two, it’s (3)Heliovaara-Patten who may have their sturdy record of not losing openers put to the fire in round one. Don’t underestimate Lehecka-Mensik in that match. The Czechs can keep the pressure on the seeds, but can they get their best in tie breaks or a super tie break? The survivor of that one may see 2023 Cincinnati champs Gonzalez-Molteni next. They however will face a big battle against Musetti-Sonego who did make a quarterfinal here in 2023. The Italians are just 1-2 this year, but all three matches went to super tie breaks. That includes a loss to Heliovaara-Patten in Toronto last week. The winner of this one shouldn’t be counted out in the next round regardless of opponent. If Heliovaara-Patten are going to get back on track after losing early in Toronto, they are likely going to have to serve well and win some tight sets.

The bottom half has a couple of interesting singles pairs. Darderi-Tsitsipas will team up for the first time as they take on (8)Nys/Roger-Vasselin. It was a singles pair that eliminated the French last week, so they’ll be on alert in this one. The other match in this section might be an under-the-radar banger with Bhambri-Venus set to take on Diallo-Shelton. Shelton is 6-8 in doubles this year and seems to elevate his partners. That would be a big helper here with Diallo at 1-5 this year in doubles play. Nys-ERV are looking to catapult into the top eight in the year-end race and this event plus the US Open give them a great opportunity. This part of the draw doesn’t particularly feel like Nys/Roger-Vasselin will have an easy time of it. I feel reasonably confident that one of the seeds in this quarter will fall short of a quarterfinal. Both have tough paths with the specialists and singles in this part of the quarter looking dangerous.

All four seeds have plenty to play for this week. I like the Arevalo-Pavic set up, even with some tough early teams in their way. I may be off, but I have bad feelings about Heliovaara-Patten and Salisbury-Skupski this week. Even if both survive round one, round two has more danger lurking. Nys/Roger-Vasselin do have a decent early set up, so perhaps they’re a quiet dark horse to push towards a semifinal. One we should wish for is a repeat of Arevalo-Pavic versus Salisbury-Skupski. The Brits won last week in Toronto 6-7, 6-4, 10-8. If an unseeded pair makes noise here, I’m looking at Lehecka-Mensik, Musetti-Sonego and Krajicek-McDonald as surprises with a nod to the last one being my pick to make a quarterfinal.

My Favorite: Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: Krajicek-McDonald

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter sees (4)Krawietz-Puetz and (7)Harrison-King as the seeds. In the Germans half, they get Peers-Withrow in round one. Krawietz-Puetz are another pair that rarely has lost their opener in 2025, just one in 15 tournaments. Expect to see the Germans try to get past the round of 16 for the first time in their third trip to the Queen City. Whether they get there or not is the question with Mektic-Ram or Pavlasek-Zielinski in the way in round two. Mektic-Ram are playing just their third tournament together with a 1-2 record. They looked better last week in Toronto, so perhaps they gel even more this week. You know my thoughts on Pavlasek-Zielinski. They’re one of my favorite unseeded menaces whenever they step on court. I think they challenge Krawietz-Puetz for a quarterfinal.

In the other half of this quarter, Harrison-King need a win … badly. On top of the five straight losses, their spot in the top eight is now in jeopardy as they currently stand 8th. Every opening match loss gives teams behind them more fuel to move up and pass the Americans. Can they get past Goransson-Verbeek in round one? Neither pair has seen the win column much lately, so perhaps a super tie break is in order to settle this one. The winner gets a singles pair in round two. It’s either Cobolli-Davidovich Fokina or Griekspoor-Michelsen. Cobolli-ADF nearly ended the Cash-Glasspool win streak in Toronto in round one last week, losing 15-13 in a super tie break. If they can repeat that form, then they have a legitimate chance of pushing through this part of the quarter into a quarterfinal. This is one of those quarters where Krawietz-Puetz look the best of the bunch and their consistency has been good of late.’

The final quarter houses the best thing going in men’s doubles in (2)Cash-Glasspool. The Brits arrive on a massive 19 match winning streak with four straight tournament titles. I am not expecting Machac-Borges to end that in round one. Round two may be the first threat to their streak. That is where Ebden-Thompson may look to beat Cashpool for the second time this season. Andreozzi-Arends are a solid duo opposite of them, but if the Aussies are right, they win that match going away. Even though the media and tours will be asleep at the wheel, a Cash-Glasspool 20 match win streak against the last team to beat them would be a must-see story in Cincinnati.

The other side here pits (6)Bolelli-Vavassori against Lammons-Pel in the opening round. The Italians still have some bumps in openers with two losses in their last four tournaments. Lammons-Pel we know nothing about with this being match number one for them. We know the skills are there, it’s all about synergy. I would expect some tight sets, but I’d stick with the Italians advancing. American wild cards Cash-Tracy get another shot at the big time this week. They played Cincy last year, losing to Purcell-Thompson 7-6, 6-3. This will be the pair’s first tournament together since winning Los Cabos in late July. They had some nice wins there, so you have to like them over Martinez-Ruud. The two singles players are 1-2 in limited action as a doubles team. The question will be how do the Americans fare if they get a shot a a top notch team like Bolelli-Vavassori? That would be one of the best, if not the best pair they’ve played in their careers.

I think Ebden-Thompson are the main thing in this last quarter that could keep us from getting a banger between Cash-Glasspool and Bolelli-Vavassori. The Italians won both meetings against the Brits in Rotterdam and Hamburg. It’s safe to say that this version of Cashpool is a different beast however. As for this half of the draw as a whole, do you dare go against Cashpool at this point? I think this might be the week to do it. With Ebden-Thompson and Bolelli-Vavassori possibly in their way just to get to a semifinal, those small margins might catch up with them this week. I feel like this could be a good week for Bolelli-Vavassori.

My Favorite: Bolelli-Vavassori
My Sleeper: Ebden-Thompson

CLOSING TIME

Spots five through eight in the current live ATP doubles rankings are separated by 700 points or so. That means with 1,000 up for grabs, there is plenty of opportunity for shuffling in that back end.

I feel best about Arevalo-Pavic in the top half of the draw, but if Salisbury-Skupski defy my upset picks, the Brits definitely have shown the moxy to make finals in big tournaments. In the bottom half, it seems more open to me. That seems crazy to say with one pair having won 19 straight, but that’s how it feels in Cincy. It’s a tough draw for Cash-Glasspool, so it might be a seed like Krawietz-Puetz who find a way through, but I do think Bolelli-Vavassori have a big chance regardless of whether they have to go through Cashpool or not.

The outsiders of the most interest for me are Krajicek-McDonald, Pavlasek-Zielisnki and Ebden-Thompson. All three of those pairs have exhibited tendencies to raise their level up to face the best. I would not be shocked if one of those three wound up in a semifinal or final in Cincinnati.

PIG PIX

Bolelli-Vavassori
Arevalo-Pavic
Pavlasek-Zielinski