CINCINNATI NEWS & NOTES
*Muhammad-Routliffe won the titles in Cincy last Summer in their first go-round as a pair. They were seeded third when they edged unseeded duo Fernandez-Putintseva in the championship match 3-6, 6-1, 10-4. Muhammad-Routliffe were strong favorites in the final at 1.59 (-169). It was the second straight year that a super tie break was needed to settle the score after a run of four straight sets finishes in the title match at this stop.
*Super tie breaks hit were needed in ten of the 26 matches in 2024. Four came in round one with the quarterfinals the home of the next highest total with three of the four matches that round needing the extra frame. An interesting note to me at least is that eight of the ten STBs involved at least one seeded pair in a match. In 2023, there were just nine STBs out of the 26 completed matches. The quarterfinals again saw multiple matches go the distance with two of the four QFs needing a super tie break. That looks like a good focal point in the STB hunt with five straight runs in Cincinnati seeing multiple quarterfinals going to a STB finish. The semifinals had been a good spot too until last year when both went down in straights. Prior to that, four of the last six semifinals went the way of the STB.
*Unseeded pairs have made it commonplace to crash the final with each of the last four year seeing an unseeded finalist. In two of those instances, an unseeded duo took home the titles. The last came in 2023 with Alycia Parks and Taylor Townsend achieving that feat. Last year, three of the four semifinal spots went to unseeded pairs. There has been at least one unseeded semifinalist in seven straigh runs of the Cincinnati Open.
*So with that unseeded success, how do the seeds fare early? Only two of the eight seeds fell in their openers in 2024. 2021 was the last time there were more than two seeds going down early with three falling that year in their starting match in Cincy. They run a split for the eight seeded pairs in this tournament with the top four getting first round byes and the back four playing in round one. Keep an eye on those top four seeds who get the byes – at least one has dropped their opener in four of the last five runs.
*Speaking of top four seeds, the last two years have seen the third seeded pair make the final. Outside of that, 2017 had been the last time that a top four seed made the final AND won when Chan-Hingis did the trick as two seeds. Being the top seeds in Cincinnati has not been a recipe for success. 2009 was the last time the top seeded pair MADE the final and it was also the last time the top seeded pair WON the final. That was courtesy of Cara Black and Liezel Huber. Only twice in the last nine runs of this tournament has the #1 seed made it as far as the semifinals. Will Errani-Paolini change that?
*Underdogs had a good showing last year with nine wins. That included three above 3.00 (+200) at 3.19 (+219), 4.03 (+303) and 4.49 (+349). Five of the dog hits came in round one. There have been at least eight underdog wins in six straight runs of the Cincinnati Open. The quarterfinals would again be a good place to look at with five of the last six runs yielding multiple dog wins in that round. That includes quite a few at 3.00 (+200) or better. The semifinals have also been a nice source with four of the last five trips to Cincy seeing a dog win a semifinal. Three of those hits have featured a higher seeded pair getting the dog score, so keep that in mind.
*The first thing you notice in looking at this year’s draw is that Katerina Siniakova is not playing doubles. That’s not exactly a news flash if you follow the Doubles Queen as she has not played doubles in either tournament she’s played since Wimbledon. She’s prioritizing singles, but you can expect to see her on the doubles court in New York. As for this year’s field, Errani-Paolini are seeded first. Hard courts have not been their jam in 2025 with their Doha title run looking like an outlier. Outside of that run, they are just 3-4 on outdoor hard courts without back-to-back wins in four tournaments.
*(3)Townsend-Zhang bring the best run of form among the seeds with back-to-back finals in DC and Montreal. I’d still like to see more of them versus premier pairs. They haven’t had to face the cream of the crop per say in those two runs. Last year’s champions, Muhammad and Routliffe, are both back, but with different partners. (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe are seeded second and seeking to shake out of a hard court funk with four of their last five tournaments seeing them lose their opener. Muhammad is with Schuurs, seeded fifth. That duo has lost their opener in two of the last three tournaments played.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
I always like to look at the unseeded field to find the pairs capable of blowing up a draw. This tournament has produced plenty in recent times and this year’s draw has plenty of depth to it, so it would not be surprising to see more unseeded menaces advancing deeper into the tournament.
Xu-Yang
This duo has been pesky, but not finishing the job against the better teams they’ve played of late. They get a second straight shot at Babos-Stefani, the team they lost to last week in Montreal in a super tie break. They also lost to Dabrowski-Routliffe in DC in a STB. They’re an intriguing watch in a revenge spot in round one that could help wreak more havoc in that quarter and give them a shot to make a semifinal run.
GROUP OF DEATH
I’ll touch on this more on the draw preview below, but check out these unseeded pairs in the second quarter: Haddad Maia-Siegemund, Krejcikova-Ostapenko, Danilina-Krunic, Guo-Panova and Hunter-Krawczyk. If you’re a seed in that quarter, you’re not happy. Any of those are fully capable of stealing that semifinal spot.
Cirstea-Kalinskaya
I’m happy to see these two back together again after their magical runs in Madrid and London. They’re 8-1 with wins of Kudermetova-Mertens, Andreeva-Shnaider, Hsieh-Ostapenko and Dabrowski-Routliffe. They’re the real deal. Their draw is obviously tough as an unseeded pair, but they’ve already proven that isn’t a hinderance to making big time runs.
Hsieh-Shibahara
I can’t keep Hsieh Su-Wei off the list after her Montreal run with Danilovic. That seemed an odd pairing and they made the semifinals. This is another first time partnership, seeming more like a bucket list check off for the nine-time Grand Slam doubles champion. They are a landmine soaked in kerosene in round one for (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe. Can Hsieh do it again this week? I won’t underestimate her chanced with a very competent and experienced Shibahara as her partner.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
This year’s draw looks LETHAL for the seeds early. Some may survive, but I’m betting that none of them are overly excited about what they’re going to see across the net in their openers.
(2)Dabrowski-Routliffe
The draws have been tough, but they’ve now lost their opener in six of 12 tournaments in 2024. It looks tough again this week with Hsieh-Shibahara lurking. Don’t expect them to go down without a fight if they lose – four of their six opening losses have come in super tie breaks.
(3)Townsend-Zhang
That’s right, NOBODY is safe to start in Cincy in my estimation. They are in form, but also having to shake off a super tie break loss in the Montreal final. It’s Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova in round two to open. MM-Samsonova were a bit flat in their Canadian opener, losing to Kichenok-Perez, but I’m expecting this one to be more of a representation of the quality they possess. They haven’t played this specific duo, but they have seen Zhang twice with different partners (1-1) and took a set off Siniakova-Townsend at Wimbledon. I’m sounding it. BANGER ALERT.
(5)Muhammad-Schuurs
They’re the perverbial “box of chocolates” on the WTA doubles circuit in that you never know what you’re gonna get. We’ve seen them pull it together out of nowhere to win Indian Wells and Queen’s Club. We’ve also seen them lose their open six times in 2025. They get Hunter-Krawczyk who have only paired up three times this season, but have looked competitive in going 1-2 with two matches going to super tie breaks. I’m expecting this to be a battle.
(6)Kichenok-Perez
They cruised in round one in Montreal before Gauff-Kessler got them in round two. This week though it’s going to be a harsh one in facing Cirstea-Kalinskaya to start. I already talked about the success of that duo in two tournaments this year, so there’s every reason to believe they’ll have the seeds on the ropes in this one.
(7)Babos-Stefani
Another repeat of a match we saw in Montreal with the seeds squaring off against Xu-Yang again. It was a 10-2 super tie break win for Babos-Stefani, but I’ll say it again, it’s very tough to beat a quality team two straight times in two weeks. The plus for Babos-Stefani is that they’ve only lost their opener twice in 12 tournaments with the last coming back in early May.
(8)Chan-Jiang
They’ve been okay in limited play at 3-2 in this North American Hard Court swing, but this will be another test. This time they face Aoyama-Bucsa who scored the seeded upset to open in Montreal (Muhammad-Schuurs). This looks like an underrated first round BANGER. I think if the seeds survive, it could well be in a super tie break. Aoyama-Bucsa have played three of those in their four matches together.
DRAW PREVIEW
Click HERE for the women’s draw
TOP HALF
(1)Errani-Paolini are the lead seeds, but you can certainly question how far they might go given their so-so performances on hard courts in 2025. **They appear to have been granted a huge break in round one with Dolehide-Kenin pulling out of the tournament prior to round one. Danilovic-Potapova have been placed into that spot as alternates, but not facing the in-form American pair is good for the Italians’ hopes of getting some wins in Cincy. Don’t discount Danilovic-Potapova providing a big time test. After all, this is a pair that made the French Open quarterfinals this year. Survival doesn’t mean Errani-Paolini are clear of trouble though as they could meet Mihalikova-Nicholls in round two. That’s the same duo that beat them in a super tie break in the Berlin final this Summer on grass. In the bottom half of this opening quarter, Babos-Stefani are the other seeds. They’re in that tough spot having to play a quality pair in Xu-Yang for a second straight week. I’ll be more surprised if both seeds survive round one than I would be if they both lost. I’m keeping an eye on Stearns-Vondrousova in this quarter as well. They have just a few matches together, but both have shown a competitive streak at times in doubles. They could be a surprise if they escape round one. The withdrawal of Dolehide-Kenin changes the complexion of this quarter in a big way. It could clear things for Errani-Paolini to grab a few wins early, but there is still plenty of competition here with that Babos-Stefani/Xu-Yang survivor looking like a danger to push for a semifinal berth.
Quarter two is going to be an absolute slaughter house in the best way. I called the unseeded pairs in this section the “group of death” and I think the two seeds, (4)Kudermetova-Mertens and (5)Muhammad-Schuurs would agree. The Wimbledon champs, seeded fourth, received a massive helper when Haddad Maia-Siegemund withdrew before round one. They pushed them to the brink last week in Montreal and I was keen on HM-Siegemund getting their revenge this week. Instead, it’s Cristian-Ruse subbing in to face Kudermetova-Mertens in the opening round. The Romanians did good work together early in their careers (30-14), but have only paired up once since 2020. I think it’s a tough ask for them to go up against the four seeds on Sunday. Winning that opener won’t put either team on easy street with Krejcikova-Ostapenko or Danilinia-Krunic waiting in round two. Krejcikova-Ostapenko were impressive in Montreal in just their second tournament, losing in the quarters 10-7 in the super tie break to eventual champs Gauff-Kessler. Another week of reps could see them take another step. Danilina-Krunic proved their French Open finals run was no fluke pushing Townsend-Zhang to a pair of tie break sets and a super tie break before ultimately losing in round two. For me, this match-up is perhaps the best looking opener on paper.
In the bottom half of the quarter, Muhammad-Schuurs bring their roller coaster act up against Hunter-Krawczyk. This one smells like an upset, but you never know when Muhammad-Schuurs might turn the switch on and make a big run. Still, I’d be shocked if this match doesn’t go to a STB either way in a competitive battle. The match opposite of that features Guo-Panova who are one of the real under-the-radar pairs in the WTA right now. All they’ve done is win this year at 13-4 with two titles. They’re in off a solid quarterfinal showing in Montreal where they beat Kudermetova-Mertens. One thing you can almost always bank on with them is seeing the match go the distance: ten of their 17 matches have done just that. I think they gave definite potential for a quarterfinal in this section and don’t sleep on them for a shot at the semifinals.
This half of the draw certainly looks like it has the ingredients to breed another unseeded finalist. Figuring out which of the many pairs in the unseeded field might make it that far is difficult because the depth here is just absolutely amazing. Xu-Yang might be a smart choice outside of that group of death, but that second quarter really feels like the pair that emerges may well end up lifting the trophy. I still lean to that Krejcikova-Ostapenko pairing capable of doing something very special as my first choice, just like I thought in Montreal.
My Favorite: Krejcikova-Ostapenko
My Sleeper: Guo-Panova
BOTTOM HALF
Townsend-Zhang are seeded third and seeking a third straight tournament final as they arrive in Cincinnati. The starter against Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova will go a long way in telling if there is any hangover from the close loss in the Montreal final. I think that’s potentially the toughest match they’d face before a quarterfinal. Khromacheva-Rakhimova are an intriguing team in the other match opposite of Townsend-Zhang. They’re both skilled and they have some reps together from 2024, including almost beating Dabrowski-Routliffe at Wimbledon. In the top half, it looks like the winner between Kichenok-Perez and Cirstea-Kalinskaya should be in the driver’s seat to compete for a semifinal. It’s hard to overlook the success that Cirstea-Kalinskaya have had as a pair in limited action. They’re my pick to click again this week. The other match is interesting with Baptiste-Pegula teaming up for the first time and Jovic-Krueger in as wild cards to oppose them. Baptiste-Pegula could be one of those lightning-in-a-bottle pairs if the synergy shows out. I’d be so down for a Townsend-Zhang versus Cirstea-Kalinskaya quarterfinal out of this mix.
The final quarter sees Dabrowski-Routliffe and Chan-Jiang as the seeds. Once again, it would not be a shock if neither saw the quarterfinals. Dabrowski-Routliffe’s fate would seem to hinge on their opener against Hsieh-Shibahara. Can Su-Wei produce again with another first time partner? It’s hard to go against her results. The survivors of that one certainly look well set up to compete for a semifinal. You’ve got the Navarros against Olmos-Sutjiadi in the other first rounder. Olmost-Sutjiadi bring the doubles experience a bit more so, but this doesn’t seem like a gimme with the sisters Navarro getting a rare shot at playing a main draw together. In the other half, Chan-Jiang are probably better served as an unseeded menace, but have a seeding this week. Aoyama-Bucsa will be a big test in round one. The other first rounder looks fun and tough to call with McNally-Noskova teaming up for the first time against vets Eikeri-Hozumi. Eikeri-Hozumi have lost both matches on hard courts this year, making their semifinal run at the French Open look more and more like a one-off. The McNally-Noskova pairing is one that could produce immediate results with both youngsters displaying plenty of potential on the doubles courts.
Outside of Chan-Jiang, I could see any of the other three seeds making the finals run in this half. Townsend-Zhang have the form, but again they have not had to play the best of the best yet in their brief partnership. I think this half of the draw affords them a better shot to slog through the draw and make it three for three in making tournament finals. Dabrowski-Routliffe were too good on this surface in 2024 to think that they’ve just lost it. They’re not getting beat up, they’re just running into tough opponents. That’s a similar task in Cincinnati. One of these tournaments it may click again and this draw certainly lends itself to a deep run if they avoid early defeat. Kichenok-Perez to me are similar to Townsend-Zhang in that they have racked up some wins, but are in need of a marquee win. They could get that in round one against Cirstea-Kalinskaya and perhaps get a shot to dethrone Townsend-Zhang later in the draw. I think this half produces a seeded finalist, but there are a few unseeded menaces who will have something to say about that. Cirstea-Kalinskaya and Hsieh-Shibahara are the two to watch.
My Favorite: Townsend-Zhang
My Sleeper: Cirstea-Kalinskaya
CLOSING TIME
This is a last big tune-up for most of the pairs who plan on playing the U.S. Open together. It’s a big week regardless especially with spots 6-9 in the live rankings having a shot to gain big points.
The history of unseeded success in Cincinnati gives plenty of hope to the unseeded field for this elongated two week event. Krejcikova-Ostapenko are still a pair that I like a lot although that second quarter is extremely difficult to navigate. Cirstea-Kalinskaya are super sleepers to me based on what they’ve done so far. They’ve proven capable of beating the best and their half does give them a bit of a better chance. If a seed wins this tournament, I feel like it’s the bottom half. Either Dabrowski-Routliffe finally getting on the right side of those small margins between wins and losses or Townsend-Zhang continuing to find ways to win.
Seriously though, if you only watch matches in quarter #2 of this draw, I don’t think you’ll be sorry. Enjoy the show!
PIG PIX
Krejcikova-Ostapenko
Townsend-Zhang
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 