WTA Montreal Preview

MONTREAL NEWS & NOTES

*The historical view of the Canadian stop during the Summer hard court swing is always a bit of a mish mosh depending on how you view it. Do you solely look at the years when they’ve played Montreal or do you combine it with the every other year schedule when they play Toronto? For me, I do the combination of both cities. I will note anything that sticks out as specific to Montreal though for the 2025 version of the National Bank Open or Omnium Bank Nationale.

*In 2024 in Toronto, three seeds Dolehide-Krawczyk upset top seeds Dabrowski-Routliffe 7-6(2), 3-6, 10-7 to claim the titles as 2.37 (+137) underdogs. 2023 in Montreal also ended with a dog barking at 2.32 (+132) when (7)Aoyoma-Shibahara defeated (5)Krawczyk-Schuurs in the final. The Canadian Summer stop has ended with a super tie break finish each of the last three seasons.

*Seeds have ruled the title match in Canada with 2013 being the last time that an unseeded pair won the championship match. That was Jelena Jankovic and Katarine Srebotnik. There have only been two years since that an unseeded pair has even made the final. That said, being the top seed here hasn’t guaranteed a quality finish. 2019 in Toronto was the last time that the top seeds (Krejcikova-Siniakova) won the titles. Dabrowski-Routliffe’s run to the title match last year was the first time the #1 seeded duo had made it back as far as the final since then. The top seeds have not won in Montreal since 2014.

*With seeds dominating the Winner’s Circle, what does that mean for early upsets? Last year, five of the eight seeded pairs went one and done in their openers. Those yielded a couple of massive underdog wins of 6.53 (+553) and 6.83 (+583) in round one. Only one of the seeded upsets in Toronto in 2024 didn’t bring at least a 2.68 (+168) price tag with it. In Montreal in 2023, there were only two seeded upsets in their openers. In 2022 in Toronto there was just one, albeit that was the top seeds losing to 4.21 (+321) underdogs. 2021 in Montreal saw three seeds losing in their first match.

*As for straight underdog wins, 2024 saw eight out of the 26 completed matches. Six of those came in rounds one and two combined. That was up from seven last time this event stopped in Montreal back in 2023. That year, five of the seven again came in rounds one and two. The numbers overall have been consistent over the last four years with at least seven underdog wins in Canada since 2021. If you’re looking for those juicy scores of 4.00 (+300) or better, focus on the first two rounds involving seeded pairs. There has been at least one each year since 2021, covering two runs in Montreal and two runs in Toronto.

*Lastly, as for our beloved super tie break finishes; last year saw a whopping 13 out of the 26 completed matches. Round two houses the most with five. In 2023, there were 14 out of the 25 completed matches. Round one saw six of those with round two again seeing five STBs. And going back to 2022, there were eleven super tie break finishes. The worst year in recent times was Montreal in 2021 when there were just six STB finishes.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

As I talked up earlier, there have been plenty of unseeded wins early on that have eliminated seeds. That means the unseeded field is definitely worth looking at, even if they have had trouble making a dent in the title match over the last decade.

Krejcikova-Ostapenko
They’re back for another go of it after having to pull out of the Eastbourne tournament after they won their opener. Certainly if things click for these two, they have the capability to contend with just about any other pair. They’re also in that quarter with Errani-Paolini, so things look like they could light up early in that part of the draw. Could it open the door for this pair to make a deep run?

Gauff-Kessler
Coco hasn’t played a lot of doubles in 2025 (4-2), but she’s helped elevate her pairing into immediate threats when she has played. Kessler hasn’t had much doubles success, but that could be due more to partners than anything. The best partner she’s had in 2025 is Zhang Shuai. All that combo did was make a final in Austin in their lone tournament together. Can Gauff help lift up Kessler to make this pairing a threatening one? They’re also in that first quarter, so they could be part of the mess that emerges if the chemistry clicks in.

Haddad Maia-Siegemund
It’s a big if here with an opener against Wimbledon champions Kudermetova-Mertens, but if they score the early upset, then game on for this combo to be in the mix for a quarterfinal or better. They’re in the quarter that also sees Andreeva-Shnaider as seeds, but that’s a pair that HM-Siegemund have already beaten. Keep your eye on that first rounder. If this pair gets through, they could wreak some havoc.

Guo-Panova
Another handy little team that doesn’t stick out right away when you look at the names, but the results speak for themselves. This pair is 11-3 this year, 6-2 on hard courts. That includes quite a few wins over solid pairs, so this team is no fluke. They have a hard road to travel, but this is one of those pairs that might be a true surprise against some quality opponents. Don’t count them out.

Keys-Pegula
Just a pair to throw into the mix. They have some limited experience together with a 3-4 record, but this is their first match together since 2022. For the most part, the Americans were competitive in their previous times together and hard courts suit both of them. They might not go anywhere, but this is one of those pairs that could be sneaky good if people look past them.

Danilina-Krunic
The French Open runners-up could prove to be a flash-in-the-pan, but the results require a look at this pair. They’ve only played three tournaments together over a three year span, but twice they have made finals. I’m not really expecting a trip to another final in Montreal, but you have to respect their capabilities and potential to play spoiler again.

Dolehide-Kenin
This American duo is growing in confidence after backing up their Wimbledon quarterfinal run with a finals appearance in Washington last week. They did get drubbed in the final, so I think that’s the one thing to consider. Will they be able to leave that behind or will that poor loss cause a bit of a hangover. They get Dabrowski-Routliffe and an early win could put them into the driver’s seat for a potential semifinal spot in Canada.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Seeds who look prone to losing their opener in Montreal.

(1)Errani-Paolini
Look no further than last year’s Toronto semifinal surprises as the Fernandez sisters pair up for the first time since last Summer. They certainly don’t bring the experience or swagger of the top seeds Errani-Paolini whom they face first, but they could cause a major upset quake in round one. The Italians are back on court for the first time since losing in round two at Wimbledon, so it’s possible there is some rust from the layoff and perhaps even from the surface switch. Errani-Paolini are 1-3 on outdoor hard courts this year outside of Doha where they won the titles. All eyes should be on this one early.

(2)Dabrowski-Routliffe
These two are back again after Routliffe paired with Muhammad in DC last week. They seemed like they found some of their best tennis at Wimbledon in making the quarterfinals, so I think this is a big week. They draw Dolehide-Kenin to start and that’s why they are on this list. That is a tough way to open things and there’s certainly some upset potential right off the bat. I think the team to emerge from that round one affair could wind up being in the semifinals.

(4)Kudermetova-Mertens
It’s the Wimbledon third round match that never happened as Haddad Maia-Siegemund get their shot at Kudermetova-Mertens in round one. Haddad Maia-Siegemund withdrew before that match and Kudermetova-Mertens went on to write history as the champions in London in 2025. Haddad Maia-Siegemund have rarely been an easy out on hard courts this year (11-5), so expect a competitive battle that could see an upset

(7)Kichenok-Perez
This duo had a nice start to their partnership with a 5-2 mark in a pair of grass court tournaments this Summer. The switch to hard courts shouldn’t affect their ability to rack up more wins, but their opener is difficult. It’s Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova. That pair has been formidable since pairing up in mid-April. They might be “just” 8-6, but four of those six losses were in super tie breaks and they have yet to be blown out in any match. This should be a tight one with a super tie break certainly ranking as probable in my estimation.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the women’s draw

TOP HALF

This first quarter looks like it’s going to be an absolute free-for-all. The seeds are (1)Errani-Paolini and (7)Kichenok-Perez. You’ve got a couple of my unseeded menaces in this quarter plus a few more unseeded pairs who could wind up being just as dangerous. I think this one is going to see some unseeded pairs pull off big wins. It could start in round one with the top seeds. Errani-Paolini have been a bit unpredictable on hard courts over the last season and a half. They’ve had big runs with the Doha titles this year and Beijing last year, but they’ve also lost in the second round or earlier in six other hard court tournaments dating back to last year in Cincinnati. Given the tough pairs in their path, I’d be stunned if they made it through to the semifinals. In the Italians’ half, watch for Krejcikova-Ostapenko to make a move.

In the other half, the survivor between Kichenok-Perez and Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova slots in as the favorite. Perez has gotten the best of her former partner (MM) in their two meetings in 2025, including this pairing with Samsonova back in Rome. I think the seeds just might survive that one and it could be Gauff-Kessler in round two. They look to have a winnable opener against another first time pair in Stollar-Wu. I highlighted the reason for optimism about this Gauff-Kessler duo earlier. Kessler had her best results with the more talented partners she’s had, while Gauff seems to elevate her partners. That could a perfect storm for success. For me, if it’s a seed in this quarter to get through, it’s Kichenok-Perez. I like Krejcikova-Ostapenko as the main unseeded spoiler, but I would not be surprised to see Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova or Gauff-Kesller be in that mix too.

The second quarter could also see turmoil on the horizon with (4)Kudermetova-Mertens leading the charge. The opener with Haddad Maia-Siegemund gets the Pig Certified Fresh BANGER ALERT. I expect it could go the distance, but it’s hard to go against the Wimbledon champs who have won 17 of 20 matches this season. Guo-Panova could be another pesky pair in round two. The seeds will definitely earn their quarterfinal spot likely with the path set before them. In the other section of this quarter, Andreeva-Shnaider are seeded 5th. The Russians didn’t seem to enjoy grass all that much at 2-2, so the return to hard courts should be music to their ears. I might be all-day dumb for not considering a pair with Hsieh as a menace, but I don’t know what to make of her pairing with Danilovic. The Serb doesn’t play much doubles (3-3), but she did make a French Open quarterfinal. They may wind up being a super charged machine, but I’ll wait to see first. The unseeded pair I have my eyes on here is Keys-Pegula. Granted, neither one is playing a lot of doubles in 2025, but I like that they have experience together and maybe picked this spot to come back together.

I was off the Andreeva-Shnaider train for grass court season, because their draws were fairly rough. They also just didn’t seem that interested in being on the surface at times. Hard courts is where they thrive though with 18 wins in 22 career matches. Only one of their four hard court tournaments in 2025 has seen them fall short of a semifinal. They’re a team I think can go toe-to-toe with Kudermetova-Mertens in this quarter. There is definitely unseeded danger here, but I can certainly see a blockbuster quarterfinal between the two seeds unfolding.

My Favorite: Kudermetova-Mertens
My Sleeper: Krejcikova-Ostapenko

BOTTOM HALF

With all the excitement you see in that top half, the third quarter could shape up to be a bit more straight forward. Washington, D.C. champs Townsend-Zhang continue on this week as the three seeds. It will be interesting to see how they fare with more matches against more teams. The Danilina-Krunic pairing is one to watch out for if there’s an early upset in that section. I may not be quite convinced that they can match their magic from Roland Garros, but the chemistry is certainly there if the surface suits them. (8)Babos-Stefani are the other seeds in this quarter. They have been steady at 18-9 this year and they have made a pair of finals on different surfaces. There isn’t anything particularly vexing about their draw. Given their consistency, it would be surprising to me if they were not in the quarterfinals. If there is a pair that can give Townsend-Zhang a run for the semifinal berth in this section, they are it for me.

The final quarter houses (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe. If their confidence is truly back from a pretty nice late Spring into early Summer, then you wouldn’t worry about how the results lacked on this surface after Australia. You do have to look at it though as they lost four of five after making the Australian Open semifinals. That included three opening losses, which is why I think they’re on alert against Dolehide-Kenin in round one. I do really think the winner is going to be in the driver’s seat for the semifinal. Muhammad-Schuurs are the seeds in the top part of the quarter. They remain too inconsisteny for my tastes. They started off the grass swing winning Queen’s Club, but had lost three of their last four by the time that swing ended. Their draw still looks like it is favorable for them to potential squeak into the quarters. Aoyama-Bucsa may not be easy in round one, but I think they advance. Muhammad-Schuurs will see either Krawczyk-Olmos or first timers Joint-McNally. Krawczyk-Olmos have played sporadically with 17 matches the last two seasons (10-7). That includes a title this year in Singapore, but they’ve also lost their first match in three of their last four tournaments this season. Which pair shows up? That’s why I think Muhammad-Schuurs could make it through, but they do have a propensity for going the distance in matches. Fifteen times in 33 matches, they have needed a super tie break or third set. That includes four of their last six openers.

This last quarter is tough to pick. Dabrowski-Routliffe get the backing because of their seeding, but that first round matchup is as rough as they get. That could open the door for Muhammad-Schuurs to pull out one of their big runs when you’re not expecting it! I think all the seeds in this bottom half have questions to answer this week. Townsend-Zhang come in on that high of winning titles, but you can make a case that they have not faced enough top tier talent yet to know if their pairing is going to be strong every week. You’d definitely side with yes over no because of the prowess of both in the doubles game. I’ll stick with them in this spot and something is just sticking out about maybe Muhammad-Schuurs getting it together this week.

My Favorite: Townsend-Zhang
My Sleeper: Danilina-Krunic

CLOSING TIME

It’s prime time as the WTA swings heavier into the North American circuit this week. A lot of the heavy hitters are back in action this week, albeit some with unusual partners. Towsend-Zhang are the form team, but they need to prove it all over again in a tougher draw. I have to keep Kudermetova-Mertens at the top of my list. Their results this year are impossibly to ignore and I don’t think hard courts are going to do anything to hurt those numbers. I think there are outsiders amongst the seeds like Kichenok-Perez and Babos-Stefani who would be a shade surprising to see in a final, but still look as if they’re in it to win it this week.

If history is correct, finding an unseeded champion in Canada will be nearly impossible. There are definitely some who could break that hex with Krejicokva-Ostapenko ones that stand out because of their draw (I think) and I still like what I’ve seen from Dolehide-Kenin of late. Still, I’m siding with history in this one and I’ll be taking two seeds as my choices for the tournament. It should be a great one!

PIG PIX

Kudermetova-Mertens
Townsend-Zhang