LOS CABOS NEWS & NOTES
*Last year’s champions Purcell-Thompson are not in this year’s draw, so the Mifel Tennis Open will continue without a repeat champion since its inception in 2016. Purcell-Thompson were seeded 4th last year when they defeated unseeded pair Escobar-Nedovyesov in straight sets. That result marked the third straight year that the Los Cabos finale finished in two sets.
*The appearance by Escobar-Nedovyesov as an unseeded pair in the final continued the trend at this Mexican ATP stop. All eight years that this tournament has been held, at least one unseeded pair has made the final. There have been four unseeded champions in this history of this tournament with the last coming in 2022.
*Being the top seed in Los Cabos has been poison over the years. The top seeded pair has won the titles just once and only appeared in two finals out of the eight that have been held. The #1 seeds have only made it as far as the semifinals three times in eight runs of this tournament. Keep that in mind when you look at the chances of Doumbia-Reboul in 2025.
*2019 was the last time that at least one seed DID NOT lose their opener in Los Cabos. There have been multiple unseeded losses in the opening round a few times since 2021. As a result, underdogs have found some early success at this stop. Last year, three dogs barked in round one with big hits of 4.45 (+345) and 4.70 (+370) in the two losses involving seeds. With those early seeded losses, there has been at least one hit in round one at 2.88 (+188) or better each of the last four years.
*Overall in 2024, there were only four underdog hits. Only one came after the opening round. That matched the total dog scores in 2023, but it was the reverse with just one in the opening round and the other three coming in the quarters and one of the semis. The high water mark for underdog wins in Los Cabos came back in 2019 when eight of the 15 completed matches went the way of the dog.
*Super tie breaks made up a third of the results last year with five of the 15 matches needing the extra frame. Three came in round one with two more in the quarterfinals. That was down from nine STBs in 2023 and there were six in 2022. Look at round one as a spot to see a solid percentage of super tie breaks. Last year’s three was the low mark over the past four years with four each from 2021-2023.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
With this being one of the first ATP-level tournaments post-Wimbledon, there has been a flurry of unseeded pairs that have found success in recent times. Here is a look at a few that stick out as the bigger dangers in the draw.
Hach Verdugo-Rodriguez
This pair comes in hot off making the final at the Newport Challenger on grass. While the surface switch could be worrisome, Hach Verdugo’s track record of being competitive on home soil sticks out. They’ll face wild cards Sanchez-Tomic in round one, a pair that is 0-5 all-time together. This pairing is in the quarter with the top seeds, so it could be an interesting quarterfinal if they advance and then who knows?
Gonzalez-Krajicek
They’ll look to shake off the disappointment of losing in round one at Wimbledon after going 12-0 on grass prior to that match. They started their partnership in Mexico at the Monterrey Challenger on clay this Spring. They turned that into a title run before struggling with losses in four of their last six on clay. This 250 draw seems like the exact elixir for a quality team to get back on track. I’d be surprised if they were not sniffing around for a semifinal berth in their quarter.
Cash-Tracy/Romboli-Smith
It’s a real shame that these two got put up against each other in round one, but the survivor is going to be one to watch. Cash-Tracy come in with good form after making the Newport Challenger final on Sunday. Romboli-Smith own a win in the head-to-head from the Nottingham Challenger earlier in the grass court swing. Both have a bit of limited play on outdoor hard courts this year, but it might be interesting to note that Romboli-Smith’s lone outdoor hard court tournament saw them make the semifinals at Indian Wells. The winner will be a pest potentially to (2)Harrison-Ram if they advance to the quarters.
Duckworth-Walton
This is guesswork as the Aussies have never paired together. Neither plays a ton of doubles, but both play enough that they’re competent and competitive against equal sorts of pairs. They’re getting Lammons-Withrow to start, a team that is the dictionary definition of struggling in 2025. A win to open and that quarter is wide open with the Aussies potentially firing to at least a semifinal if the chemistry shows.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Most years in Los Cabos, you’ve been able to count on at least one seed going one and done in the opening round. Let’s take a look at the seeds with the toughest starters this week.
(1)Doumbia-Reboul
The French pair have normally transitioned off grass to clay in this section of the season, so this is different. This hasn’t always been a good transition even onto a surface where they have found plenty of success. Their opener is against Chandrasekar-Stadler, a duo that paired for the 1st time last week in Newport. They made a semifinal run there with a super tie break loss to Hach Verdugo-Rodriguez. With the top seeds historically not having the best runs here, I think it bears watching how they do early in a match-up that could be tight.
(3)Lammons-Withrow
The Americans have lost their opening match eleven times in 14 tournaments played in 2025. That includes ten of their last eleven tournaments overall. This is their fourth trip to Los Cabos with opening losses two out of the three previous runs. Duckworth-Walton are the opposition to start. The plus for the Americans is that the Aussies have not paired before, so perhaps the chemistry isn’t there right away. Still, with Lammons-Withrow struggling and their tendency to drop sets, this figures to be competitive. The Americans have lost at least one set in 16 of 17 matches this season.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter sees top seeds Doumbia-Reboul leading the way. As I stated earlier, they normally switch to clay off the grass court swing. Los Cabos is a slow hard court, so perhaps that’s why the choice was made to go to the North American hard court swing instead. I’m interested to see how they fare, but I do expect them to be challenged in this quarter. Chandrasekar-Stalder could do that from the jump in round one and I also like Hach Verdugo-Rodriguez in the other part of this quarter to be a pest. I’m expecting them to get past Sanchez-Tomic in round one. It’s possible we see an unseeded pair get through this quarter and that would not be much of a surprise given this point in the calendar. Hach Verdugo-Roriguez are the menaces here for me.
The second quarter sees Americans (3)Lammons-Withrow looking for any semblance of success this week. It’s been a harsh season for them at 3-14. Even so, if you asked them to make their own draw, this one might have been something they’d have done themselves. It’s certainly winnable IF they can find success in round one. Duckworth-Walton should force them to show that they can win even with the Aussies not having experience together. If Lammons-Withrow can escape, then there is a real shot for them to get to the semifinals and maybe beyond. The other match in this quarter pits Bayldon-Schoolkate against Paris-Yuzuki. Paris-Yuzuki have paired for a half dozen matches, all on grass, going 3-3. That includes a super tie break win over Schoolkate with a different partner at the Ilkey Challenger. That was their only STB in six matches.
There’s no “strong” favorite in this half for me. If Doumbia-Reboul had the Lammons-Withrow draw, I’d think a bit better of their chances this week. Instead, they have the tougher road to getting to the final four or a title match. Still, the draw is kind enough to like their chances if you don’t think the top seed curse here is anything. And yes, I’m crazy enough to think Lammons-Withrow have a shot to do some damage with this draw. If not now, then this season is probably going to continue to circle the drain.
My Favorite: Doumbia-Reboul
My Sleeper: Hach Verdugo-Rodriguez
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter sees Ebden-Peers as the seeded pair. They drew farely well here with an inexperienced young duo in Mejia-Pacheco. Both do have experience playing plenty of doubles, but not together and rarely at the ATP level. Even with the seeded Aussies stumbling in 2025 (9-9), I think they get through this opener. Where trouble lurks is in the quarters if Gonzalez-Krajicek advance. They were exceptionally good on grass even with the early Wimbledon loss, so I think they have the confidence moving forward. I’d put the BANGER ALERT out if it’s Ebden-Peers against Gonzalez-Krajicek for a spot in the semifinals. Give me Gonzalez-Krajicek with the Aussies just not consistent enough in 2025 for my tastes.
The final quarter sees Christian Harrison and Rajeev Ram back together for the first time since pairing in Auckland to start off 2025. All they did there was make the final where they unfortunately withdrew before the final. They should be able to work their way out of round one. That should set up a showdown in the quarterfinals with either Cash-Tracy or Romboli-Smith. Harrison-Ram played with small margins in Auckland with four of their six regulation sets going to tie breaks and two of three matches needing a super tie break finish. Cash-Tracy or Romboli-Smith will have a legit shot to emerge from this quarter and push for a final.
Both seeds certainly COULD make their way to a semifinal clash, but it’s hard to overlook the solid pairs in the unseeded field in this half. Gonzalez-Krajicek, Cash-Tracy and Romboli-Smith are all very capable pairs that could upset their way to a final. For me, if a seed makes it through, I’d probably side with Harrison-Ram. Ebden-Peers just have not had that magic touch this year like we saw in 2024.
My Favorite: Harrison-Ram
My Sleeper: Romboli-Smith
CLOSING TIME
This is the exact kind of draw one would expect for a 250 coming out of a Grand Slam. You have a couple of regular pairs that are here and a few others that have played enough to show their true colors. Outside of that, there are a lot of players getting a rare opportunity for an ATP main draw. Doumbia-Reboul are the only pair here that are within shouting distance of the top eight in the year-end race. They are just 455 points outside of the #8 spot occupied by Krawietz-Puetz. They did thrive in Acapulco in a similar environment early in the season, making the final. You can make a case for them here in the weaker half of the draw. I’m going to be surprised if the trend of an unseeded pair making the final here does not continue. There are enough danger duos in the unseeded field to think one of them breaks through. The most lively ones are in that bottom half and one of them will be erased when Cash-Tracy and Romboli-Smith square off in round one. This is one of those weeks where you kind of close your eyes and see if you land one on the dart board. If my prediction below happens, it would be their third meeting this season with the first two split. Gonzalez-Krajicek won on grass, while Doumbia-Reboul survived 11-9 in a super tie break on clay.
PIG PIX
Gonzalez-Krajicek
Doumbia-Reboul
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 