ATP Wimbledon Preview

WIMBLEDON NEWS & NOTES

*Heliovaara-Patten became the first unseeded champions at the All-England Club since 2014 (Sock-Pospisil) when they defeated (15)Purcell-Thompson in a three set classic last year; 6-7(7), 7-6(8), 7-6(9). They were 2.44 (+144) underdogs for the match. It marked the second time in three years that an underdog won the title match.

*Heliovaara-Patten along with Skupski-Venus were the first unseeded semifinalists at Wimbledon since 2021. That doesn’t mean that the unseeded field doesn’t produce contenders with three unseeded quarterfinalist in each of the past two years. There have been multiple unseeded pairs in the final eight in seven of the last eight runs of Wimbledon.

*The top of the table hasn’t been a bad place to be at Wimbledon. Over the last six runs of this tournament, the #1 or #2 seed has been in the final four years. A twist on being the two seed however is that they’ve also been at the brunt of some early exits in that same stretch. Four times they have been ousted in round two, so it’s very much been boom or bust. This year’s two seeds? Heliovaara-Patten.

*As for the opening round and seeded upsets, the men’s draw has not produced a lot in round one. Last year’s three seeded upsets in the opening round was the largest number since four occurred back in 2018. The one thing that has been fairly consistent as you see in the chart below is that one of those early upsets usually involves a top five seed. Also take note of the fate of the #10 seed over the last six runs of Wimbledon.

*Per those upsets, the higher priced underdogs have seen a more consistent home in round one. Last year, the three round one dogs hit at 2.11 (+111), 4.56 (+356) and 6.21 (+521). In 2023, there was only one round one dog hits against a seeded pair, but it was a massive score at 6.15 (+515) when (3)Ram-Salisbury fell. In 2022, both seeded upsets in the opening round were in the top five, but the dog prices were modest at 2.22 (+122) and 2.41 (+141).

*Overall, 18 underdogs scored wins last year. Six of those came in round one. Those numbers were nearly identical to what 2023 brought with 15 underdog wins with six of those also coming from round one. The only thing that seems consistent about hunting underdog wins over the past two years is that seeds have been involved frequently in being the losing pair in those situations. Last year, nine of the 18 underdog wins came at the expense of a seed. In 2023, seven of the 15 dog scores involved seeds losing.

*Since the death of the best of five format for doubles at Wimbledon in 2022, three set matches now constitute “going the distance.” Last year, only 15 of the 63 completed matches needed a third set. Eleven of the three setters came in rounds one and two combined. In the first year of best of three only for doubles back in 2023, there were 21 matches that needed to go the distance. Interestingly since the switch, none of the semifinals have needed three sets. Two quarterfinals did however need a third in both 2023 and 2024. That might be a good place to hyper focus that hunt.

*The hunt for the first repeat champions on the men’s side since 2008 and 2009 begins with Heliovaara-Patten. A year ago, they were unseeded in London as their ascent into the top tier of doubles pairs was in full swing. It culminated with the title win at the All-England Club. They’ve been a remarkably consistent duo in 2025 with a 31-13 record. What’s been lacking since their 2nd Grand Slam title in Australia this January is another title. The pair has made ten semifinals in 2025, but only passed through to the finals TWICE. The last time a previous champion made it as far as the final the following year was 2021-22 when Mektic-Pavic lost their repeat bid in a fifth set tie break.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

I opened the preview talking about how unseeded pairs have had success getting to the quarterfinals here in recent times. The run to be an unseeded champion may see more famine than feast with just two in the last eleven years, but the unseeded field is still well worth a look. Last year’s two unseeded pairs in the semifinals and champion might be more out an outlier here of late, but there have been plenty of surprises getting to at least a quarterfinal.

Gonzalez-Krajicek
Even though their opener (Pavlasek-Zielinski) isn’t easy, this is the best form team on tour right now. They didn’t get rolling much on clay, but the switch to grass has been a huge boost to their confidence. They’ve now won all 12 of their grass court matches with titles in Stuttgart, Nottingham (Challenger) and Mallorca. They’ll be an intriguing pair if they escape round one. I would love to see them keep rolling and get a chance to battle some of the upper echelon pairs on tour.

Behar-Vliegen
They come on off an Eastbourne finals trip, where they beat Heliovaara-Patten en route to a second straight loss to Cash-Glasspool on grass. They’ve been solid since forming in April with a 17-8 record. You’ll see Bolelli-Vavassori in their way in round one, but that may not be a deterrent to calling them a potential menace. The seeded Italians have struggled at grass tournaments that don’t take place in Halle. Bolelli-Vavassori are 10-2 in Halle in their careers and 1-4 at all other grass tournaments, 1-2 at Wimbledon.

Herbert-Thompson
This is an absolute guess since these two have never played a match together. Both however are Grand Slam champions and solid doubles players, so you’d think there is a chance that this could be a good pair. They get one of the pairs struggling for most of 2025 in Lammons-Withrow to start, so they have a real shot to get through. If they do, then it could get interesting with Heliovaara-Patten a potential third round opponent.

Bopanna-Gille
I’ve been pushing this team since they formed for the grass swing as a pair that might gel into a dark horse by Wimbledon. We might not know yet, but their play at Queen’s Club did show promise. They made it through qualifying and lost 7-6, 7-6 to Cash-Glasspool in the quarterfinals. The draw did them no favors with (3)Krawietz-Puetz on deck in round one. Still, I’d expect a banger in that one with a win blowing up that quarter quickly if Bopanna-Gille pull it off.

Matos-Melo/Dodig-Luz
These two play for the second straight tournament in round one. Matos-Melo took the Mallorca clash 6-4, 7-6. The survivor of this match could be a menace moving forward. They’re in the quarter where (8)Mektic-Venus and (11)Doumbia-Reboul inhabit the bottom half. The winner likely sees Mektic-Venus in round two. Keep an eye on this section because one of these two pairs could wind up being in the mix for a quarterfinal berth. Dodig-Luz did just that out of nowhere at the French Open and Matos-Melo have been competitive on grass the last two seasons at 8-4 overall.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Seeds have not been that prone to losing in round one at the All-England Club. Last year, it was only three seeds who did not survive round one. The last time that more than four seeds went one and done in the opening round was back in 2012. So there may not be a lot of seeded upsets, but do remember that a top five seed has gone out early three straight runs at Wimbledon and four of the last six overall. Let’s take a look at the seeds who might join the one and done club this week.

(3)Krawietz-Puetz
A rough draw for the Germans as they get Bopanna-Gille in round one. Krawietz-Puetz have done very well here the last two years with a semifinal and quarterfinal, both ended by Granollers-Zeballos. They played well in grass prep, taking the Halle titles over Bolelli-Vavassori. Still, Bopanna-Gille have looked strong as they paired up just for the grass swing. They may not pull it off, but I do think this opener will be a BANGER.

(7)Bolelli-Vavassori
I’ve already run down the Italians lack of wins on grass outside of Halle, so I think that makes them vulnerable in round one. Last year, they drew poorly with Heliovaara-Patten in round one. They’ve got anothet tough one this year in Behar-Vliegen. They went 4-3 on grass with the Eastbourne final being the highlight of that swing for them. The question is whether or not they can step up in the spotlight and score what would still be considered a huge upset.

(13)Lammons-Withrow
The Americans have had a miserable 2025 at 3-13. I thought grass would give them a bit of a boost due to their serve-centric style. That has not materialized either with a 1-4 mark on grass that includes three more opening match losses. Lammons-Withrow have lost their opener now in ten of 13 tournaments played. Herbert-Thompson are the opponents in round one and I believe despite their lack of experience together, that they could make it another one and done for the Americans. By the way, Herbert-Thompson carry the favorite’s tag into this one, which tells you plenty.

(15)Ebden-Peers
The Aussies finally found some form at the French Open with a quarterfinal run. Still, they’re barely over .500 at 9-8 this year. They face the Czechs Nouza-Rikl in round one. Nouza-Rikl just got their feet wet on grass with their first two matches in Hertogenbosch, losing to Cash-Glasspool 6-3, 7-6. They were at their best on clay with a 12-6 mark, but they’ve shown a competitive streak on all surfaces. This one either feels like an Aussie blow out or a competitive one where the Czechs have a chance.

DRAW PREVIEW

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TOP HALF

First Quarter
(1)Arevalo-Pavic and (7)Bolelli-Vavassori are the lead seeds here on opposite sides of the quarter. In the Arevalo-Pavic half, you also have Ebden-Peers as seeds. This part of the draw should play well for Arevalo-Pavic who made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2024. The number one seeds have tailed off a bit after winning Rome, so this should be an exciting path for them to see. I don’t see much in their way of getting to the round of 16. In the Ebden-Peers portion of the half, sound the BANGER ALERT for the battle between Cabral-Miedler and Murray-Ram in the opening round. Cabral-Miedler have done nothing but win since they started playing regularly in April. Any doubts about their ability to win on something other than clay have disappeared after a rock solid 6-3 run in grass prep. That included a Halle finals’ loss to Krawietz-Puetz. They look the part of an unseeded menace perhaps early on, but they have not measured up against the top tier teams they’ve faced. Murray-Ram have struggled for wins in their work in 2025 (3-8), so a win here would be big for them. I have the survivor of that opener going over either Ebden-Peers or Nouza-Rikl. I still think Arevalo-Pavic get the quarterfinal spot.

In the Bolelli-Vavassori half, the question is whether or not the Italians can win on grass outside of Halle? Behar-Vliegen are not a great draw in round one and round two could be even more difficult should they advance. That’s because the survivor of a round one BANGER between red hot Gonzalez-Krajicek and capable Pavlasek-Zielinski is going to be waiting. I’ve been pushing Gonzalez-Krajicek as ones to watch at Wimbledon for weeks, so now is the time to see if they can live up to the expectations of going 12-0 in grass court prep. They’ll earn it if they get through this section and I think having Bolelli-Vavassori as the seeds that would be in their way is probably a good spot for them. The other section of this half houses (10)Nys/Roger-Vasselin who have to like their draw. They get fellow Frenchies Bonzi-Jacq in round one. Nys-ERV only got in three matches on grass, going 1-2, but were competitive in all three. That included a close loss to Salisbury-Skupski in Easbtourne. They could see Germans Schnaitter-Wallner in round two and that won’t be easy. The Germans may do their best work on clay (18 of their 28 wins), but they played tight on grass against Bopanna-Gille in and Andreozzi-Arribage in super tie break losses. If Nys-ERV falter, the Germans are the ones who might pick up the pieces.

This is an interesting quarter. Arevalo-Pavic would be bigger favorites if not for their mediocre results of late. Still, this draw is kind to them, so anything short of a quarterfinal should be considered a failure. They’d probably love a shot at Nys-ERV who knocked them out of the French Open in round three. That could happen in the quarters. I can’t look past Bolelli-Vavassori’s struggles on grass outside of Halle, not to mention a very difficult draw against unseeded menaces in Behar-Vliegen and possibly Gonzalez-Krajicek. If the Italians survived that stretch, it would be quite an achievement.

My Favorite: Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: Gonzalez-Krajicek

Second Quarter
This quarter sees Krawietz-Puetz as the highest seeds (3). The good news for the Germans is that Granollers-Zeballos, the team that knocked them out of Wimbledon each of the last two years, are in the other half of the draw. The bad news is seeing Bopanna-Gille in round one. Should they escape round one, then it’s game on as their path to a second career Wimbledon semifinal could be on tap. Goransson-Verbeek are the other seeds in their half of the quarter and they arrive on the struggle bus with opening losses in three of their last four tournaments. They get a better draw to start with Cerundolo-Duran scheduled for round one. That’s a stark contrast to seeing Krawietz-Puetz or Salisbury-Skupski, both of whom they faced in opening grass court losses this swing.

There are some talented duos in this section, but ones who seem more comfortable on other surfaces. Romios-Seggerman are 8-0 with two Challenger titles. Seven of those wins came in super tie breaks, so the prospect of potentially playing Krawietz-Puetz to go deeper in the tournament seems a difficult task. Cash-Tracy are the unseeded pair in this section that stick out as potential dangers and they are in the section of this half with Goransson-Verbeek, which makes things slightly easier. All-in-all, the winner of that Krawietz-Puetz versus Bopanna-Gille match in round one looks like the favorite to get the quarterfinal berth in this half.

The bottom half of the draw has (8)Mektic-Venus and (11)Doumbia-Reboul as the seeds. If you follow me, you’ll know I think Mektic-Venus are threats on grass. They proved as much by making the Queen’s Club final, where they beat Arevalo-Pavic along the way and loss 10-6 to Cash-Glasspool in the super tie break final. I do think they are a bit more nerve racking as a seed, but I do also like this section of the draw for them. The match that may serve as the catalyst or stopper for them should be in round two against either Matos-Melo or Dodig-Luz. Doumbia-Reboul scored their best result here last year in making the round of 16. They went 3-3 in grass prep, beating the teams you’d expect and losing to Cabral-Miedler twice and Gonzalez-Krajicek once. Getting a singles pair in Bergs-Diallo in round one should give them a realistic shot to win early. It might be Erler-Frantzen waiting in round two. They’ve paired regularly in 2024 (18-15) and were close in two losses on grass. Watch out if that’s the match-up, an upset could be in the cards. Mektic-Venus are my favorites to grab the quarterfinal spot with that Matos-Melo/Dodig-Luz winner looking like the liveliest dark horse in this bottom half.

I think when you look at the highest seeds in this quarter, the early rounds are what may make or break their chances. Krawietz-Puetz have the pedigree here, so it is tough to look past them IF they survive round one. Mektic-Venus are a bit more shaky for me as I’ve been saying for the past weeks, they seem to find better results when they don’t have a number next to their name. That said, this draw is about as good as they could have asked for in avoiding the most dangerous unseeded pairs or higher seeds until at least the quarters. Grand Slams have not been kind to them so far with a first round exit in Australia and a round two loss in France, but this seems like their time to do more.

My Favorite: Mektic-Venus
My Sleeper: Bopanna-Gille

BOTTOM HALF

Third Quarter
French Open champions (4)Granollers-Zeballos will hit grass for the first time this swing when they open play at Wimbledon. That’s not new territory for the two-time Wimbledon finalists (2021-23). Their draw should afford them some wiggle room to work their way back into form (if needed). They open with Kecmanovic pairing with Mies for the first time. They’ve got (16)Bhambri-Galloway as the other seeds in their section. Don’t sleep on that pair. They made the final in Mallorca, losing 15-13 in the super tie break against Gonzalez-Krajicek. Looking at their half in this section, they do look like they could be on a collision course to face Granollers-Zeballos in the round of 16. On clay, Granollers-Zeballos devistated them in Rome 6-1, 6-2. I think grass will make things much closer should they meet again. If we’re looking to an unseeded pair that could keep that clash from going down, maybe keep eyes on the Dutch pairing of Haase-Rojer. They have plenty of experience together, but this will be their first match since last year at the Olympics. Overall, I’ve got a tough time looking past Granollers-Zeballos getting to another Wimbledon quarterfinal with this set up.

In the top half of this quarter, (6)Salisbury-Skupski and (12)Gonzalez-Molteni lead the way. The Brits shook off an opening loss at Queen’s Club to show better in Eastbourne with a win over Nys-ERV and a 6-7, 6-4, 10-8 loss to Cash-Glasspool in the semifinals. Keep an eye on their opener against fellow Brits Broom-Paris in round one. The wild cards played Eastbourne, losing 7-6, 6-3 to Cash-Glasspool. They seem capable of at least keeping the match close. Still, their path to the round of 16 at-minimum looks good. Gonzalez-Molteni have been sneaky competitive on grass with their quarterfinal run last year marking their best result. Both previous trips ended with losses to Purcell-Thompson, so that’s not a worry this time around. With a few first time pairs and the Frenchies, Halys-Mahut, being short on experience together, Gonzalez-Molteni may have a shot to play for another quarterfinal. Halys-Mahut are an intriguing combo with all their previous experience together coming in 2024 on clay. Mahut is playing his last Wimbledon, a tournament he won back in 2016 and made the quarters for the 4th time back in 2022 with Roger-Vasselin. Just my piggy sense tingling here, but if there’s a pair that causes some havoc in this section, they might be it.

There’s little doubt that the top two seeded pairs in this quarter are the cream of the crop. It’s also a little harder to find some unseeded menaces in this spot too. I wouldn’t completely look past the lower seeded pairs though as far as quarterfinal contenders. Gonzalez-Molteni have proven their mettle here before and four of their six regulation sets in grass prep went to tie breaks. They’ll be in most matches, it’s a matter of whether or not they can finish off those tight sets. I really do have a hard time finding a true surprise in this quarter, but the veterans Haase-Rojer and Halys-Mahut stand out as the ones who might have the most potential to cause a wrinkle or two.

My Favorite: Granollers-Zeballos
My Sleeper: Gonzalez-Molteni

Fourth Quarter
This last quarter is star-studded at the top with defending champions (2)Heliovaara-Patten and the best thing going on grass at this level, (6)Cash-Glasspool on opposite sides. Starting with the defending champs, they’ll see wild cards Evans-Searle for the second time this season. They ran away from them in the 2nd set of their Queen’s Club clash to win 7-6, 6-1. Heliovaara-Patten have been a model of consistency, so with this set up you have to like their chances of being in contention for yet another semifinal. They have three wild card pairs and (13)Lammons-Withrow in their half of the quarter. That makes up a bit for having to stare down the prospects of playing Cash-Glasspool to get to a semifinal. The most fascinating team near them has to be that new combo of Herbert and Thompson. If they have any chemistry, they could wind up being the nightmare scenario for one or more seeds in this section.

As for Cash-Glasspool, they head to London having won 11 of 12 on grass with three straight finals. That includes back-to-back title runs at Queen’s Club and Eastbourne. The lone loss came to Ebden-Thompson in the Hertogenbosch final. Are we looking at an absolute BANGER ALERT for a quarterfinal against Heliovaara-Patten? Don’t put it in stone quite yet. (9)Harrison-King are also in their section and while they’ve lost two of three in their first run on grass, they’ve been close in all those matches and their games seem to suit the surface. The interesting note in this half of the quarter is that both seeds own wins over Heliovaara-Patten this season. In Cash-Glasspool’s case, it’s 2-0. An underrated banger in round one in this half might be Romboli-Smith against McDonald-Michelsen. Romboli-Smith have more experience, but the two Americans are 6-5 together and rarely get blown out. The winner could have a shot to really push Harrison-King if the nine seeds get through to round two. If you’re looking for early trouble for Cash-Glasspool, check out round two if Jebens-Olivetti get there. They have the requisite big serving games to stick with the Brits. I also wouldn’t be stunned if Griekspoor-BVDZ take a set in round one, but I think overall the Brits should be able to avoid the upset.

There are a few potential road blocks to getting that Heliovaara-Patten/Cash-Glasspool banger in the quarters. Harrison-King and Herbert-Thompson stick out as the ones to watch if anything takes away from chalk advancing in this quarter. Heliovaara-Patten may well prove me wrong here, but it’s hard to go agaisnt what Cash-Glasspool have done on grass so far. They’re the favorites for me in this section even with Heliovaara-Patten having won the titles in 2024 and the Australian Open this year.

My Favorite: Cash-Glasspool
My Sleeper: McDonald-Michelsen

CLOSING TIME

The quest to repeat will be a focal point or at least it should be for the men’s draw with Heliovaara-Patten maintaining a consistent winning track this year. The question remains however if they can get themselves in position by getting to a final, something that has been difficult for them in 2025 despite a stellar record. Having to go through Cash-Glasspool and perhaps Granollers-Zeballos further puts them down the list of contenders for me. It’s hard not to put Cash-Glasspool as the favorites based on their grass court resume. Then again, they have the same issues that Heliovaara-Patten have with some tough pairs to get through just to get into the final. Those seem like the top three contenders in the bottom half with a shout out to Salisbury-Skupski being just outside that mix.

In the top half, if there is going to be a surprise finalist, it feels like that may be a place that is more likely to produce on. Gonzalez-Krajicek certainly stand out with their record on grass, but can they step up and beat the upper echelon pairs in this draw? Mektic-Venus are the others in the top half who would be somewhat surprising even with them seeded 8th. That isn’t to overlook Arevalo-Pavic and Krawietz-Puetz who also can make a strong case, albeit that first round match for the Germans against Bopanna-Gille is a bit worrisome. The bottom line for me is that I think there are eight or so pairs in this draw that look capable of taking the titles that wouldn’t be terribly surprising. When you look at form and draw, I’ll rank those teams below in Pig Pix with the ones I like best obviously being at the top of the list. I believe it’s going to be an excellent tournament for the men with some really superb mathches along the way.

PIG PIX

Cash-Glasspool
Mektic-Venus
Arevalo-Pavic
Granollers-Zeballos
Heliovaara-Patten
Gonzalez-Krajicek
Salisbury-Skupski
Krawietz-Puetz