WTA Rome Preview

ROME NEWS & NOTES

*Last year, it was a dream run for the home Italian pair of Errani-Paolini as they won the titles as an unseeded pair. The Italians were slight favorites at 1.84 (-119) in the final when they beat (3)Gauff-Routliffe in a super tie break; 6-3, 4-6, 10-8. Errani-Paolini became the third unseeded champions in Rome over the last four years.

*The super tie break finish marked the fourth time in six years that the women’s doubles final required the extra frame. As for overall STBs in 2024, there were eleven out of the 30 completed matches. That was up from just nine in 2023. Not surprisingly, the highest number of instances of super tie breaks came in round one last year (5). There have been at least five STBs in the opening round in Rome each year since 2021.

*The Errani-Paolini title run again highlighted the success of unseeded pairs in Rome in recent times. 2024 marked the 7th straight year that the tournament has seen at least one unseeded semifinalist. Last year’s two unseeded semifinal runners marked the most since 2021 when three of the four semifinal spots went to unseeded duos.

*While the unseeded field has flourished, the top seeds in Rome have not. 2020 (Hsieh-Strycova) was the last time that the top seeds won the titles. 2023 was the last time the top seeds made the final. There have been only two champions that were seeded #1 in Rome since 2016.

*Underdogs won eight matches in 2024. The biggest bark came in the quarterfinals when Wang-Zheng upset (1)Hsieh-Mertens as 4.00 (+300) dogs. Three of the four quarterfinal winners were underdogs. The other hits all came in round one. 2023 matched 2024 with eight underdog winners with five in round one, including a pair at 3.00 (+200) or better. If you’re looking for those juicy ones, round one has seen at least one at 3.00 or higher in four of the last five years.

*If you’re thinking that Errani-Paolini may find their form this week and become back-to-back champions, you may want to reconsider. There has NEVER been a repeat champion on the women’s side in doubles in the history of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. With the Italians at just 2-4 since winning their lone title of 2025 in Doha, it would be a long shot in the first place.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

With unseeded champions in three of the last four years, it certainly makes sense to look deep into the unseeded field in Rome for contenders. Here’s a look at the pairs who stand out.

Jiang-Wu
The real question with this pair if how they will far in their first trip onto clay. They have been steady and dangerous on hard courts at 14-5 this season and 22-10 all-time. This will be their first action together since making the semifinals in Miami at the end of March. Normally, you’d think why bother with Errani-Paolini first up, but we’ve already touched on the struggles of the Italians. An early upset and they could really take off.

Kudermetova-Mertens
An easy inclusion after their run in Madrid that probably should have ended with a title win. They folded late in the championship though, losing to Cirstea-Kalinskaya in a super tie break. It’s hard to go against them after they showed their chemistry was still solid despite not having paired since 2022. I think the key is getting that first win to get over the finals loss and then it’s game on again.

Kenin-Kichenok
Am I turning ON to this pair after months of putting them on the early out list? My thoughts here are that they make a much more dangerous UNSEEDED team than they do when they get seeded. They’ve been okay on clay at 3-2 in their last two tournaments. They may not be able to beat the best of the best, but if things fall their way, they definitely could at least be in position to compete for a semifinal.

Fernandez-Putintseva
They showed enough danger in nearly knocking out Hunter-Perez in Madrid, that I think they’re worthy of a look this week. While the conditions are obviously much different in Rome, this pair have shown dangerous when they take the court together over the last year. They’re in that Errani-Paolini quarter, so they could be a pair that helps detonate the draw.

Haddad Maia-Siegemund
Any time they’re unseeded, they’re on this list. They remain right in the mix four the year-end race at #6, bunched within a hundred points of jumping up as high as #4. That said, they are in a very tough quarter with (2)Siniakova-Zhang as the highest seeds and a plethora of unseeded menaces. They wouldn’t have to see the two seeds until a quarterfinal, so that’s a plus.

Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova
Another tough draw in that Siniakova-Zhang quarter, where they can’t avoid the two seeds. Perhaps it’s a good thing for them though as they’ll get them in round one. They’ve played well on clay at 2-2 with a trip to the Stuttgart semifinals and a rough opening round loss to Andreeva-Shnaider; 7-6, 6-7, 12-10. Certainly they are boom or bust with who they play first.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

With a loaded draw, that means plenty of tough tests waiting for seeds in round one. Let’s take a look at the ones where upsets might be possible.

(2)Siniakova-Zhang
Yes, they’re 6-1 in limited play together than includes a title and a semifinal. The draw is not kind to them in Rome however with Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova first amongst what could be a gauntlet of unseeded menaces in the two seeds path this week. Siniakova hasn’t lost an opener since Beijing last Fall with Taylor Townsend. She may not lose here either, but I’m expecting a BANGER in round one between those two pairs.

(3)Errani-Paolini
I’ve mentioned their struggles a ton of late. One can believe that playing on home soil at the site of one of their great achievements of 2024 can be a difference maker. Maybe it will, but it’s hard to look past losing two openers in their last four tournaments and being forced to super tie breaks in the two they survived. Jiang-Wu will need to prove they can play on clay, but their chemistry is undeniable. The Italians may survive, but could well need another super tie break to do so.

(5)Dolehide-Krawczyk
After renewing their partnership in April for a Charleston finals run, this pair somewhat predictably crashed out in their Madrid opener. Gauff-Montgomery crushed them 6-3, 6-0. It’s another rough matchup this time against Haddad Maia-Siegemund. That may lead to a second straight one and done.

(8)Muhammad-Schuurs
The surprise Indian Wells champs have continued their rollercoaster play with opening losses in two of three tournaments since that exciting run in the desert. They’ll face first time team Bucsa-Moratelli. In theory, maybe that helps, but Bucsa has already shown the ability of late to pair with different partners and make big runs. She made the Miami final with Kato and then won Bogota with Sorribes-Tormo. She’ll have the home crowd on her side with the Italian Moratelli as her partner. I’d expect them to have a real shot at getting the seeded scalp.

DRAW PREVIEW

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TOP HALF

The first quarter is home to (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe and (6)Andreeva-Shnaider. Starting with the top seeds, they’ll need to get back on track after suffering an opening loss in Madrid. It wound up looking better with Cirstea-Kalinskaya winning the tournament, but still shows the shakiness of this pairing. Dabrowski-Routliffe have dropped their opener in four of seven tournaments this season. Niculescu-Piter are their first round foes. They have played just two matches together with both ending in losses. I think it’s still a tight one, but the top seeds should survive. Round two may be a trouble spot with Kastakina-Stearns or Aoyama-Kichenok waiting. The Aoyama-Kichenok pairing did play once prior in Stuttgart last year. They lost a super tie break to Badosa-Jabeur. Kasatkina and Stearns pair for the first time. Stearns has played more doubles than her partner with a penchant for super tie breaks. Nine of her 13 doubles matches this year have gone to STBs, including six straight. Stearns is 6-3 in those STB matches with four different partners. I would not be surprised to see her add to that tally in round one and beyond.

In the bottom of the quarter, Andreeva-Shnaider are seeded for the second straight tournament. Their draw this week is better than Madrid, where they lost their second match to Haddad Maia-Siegemund. Keep in mind the Russian powerhouses have gone to super tie breaks in all five tournaments in 2025 that have used that format. Don’t expect Noskova-Tauson to be pushovers. They won a couple in Madrid and seem the exact type of team that will force the Russians to win another close one (if they win). The survivor could see one of last year’s semifinalists, Wang-Zheng, in round two. I’ll stick with Andreeva-Shnaider as the favorites in this quarter. Dabrowski-Routliffe still need to find consistency from week-to-week to be anointed as the ones to beat. Kasatkina-Stearns could be a dangerous floater if they show chemistry early.

In the second quarter, the defending champs (3)Errani-Paolini are looked for the home cooking that guided them to an unexpected title run a year ago in Rome. If they arrived in better form, I’d be a big fan of this draw for them. As such, it’s proving ground around every corner for the Italians. Jiang-Wu are up first and the question for me centers around how well their games translate to clay. Both traditionally have been far better results-wise on hard courts, so perhaps that will help Errani-Paolini to avoid early trouble. I’m interested to see if Fernandez-Putintseva can put things together in slower conditions. They’ve shown vert well in their limited play together, but both tournaments have come in faster conditions on hard courts in Cincy last Summer and in the altitude in Madrid last week. Their baseline games could be tough on any team in this quarter if they advance.

Danilina-Khromacheva are the other seeds in this quarter. They’ve floundered around .500 this year after last year’s superb 31-5 record. They’ve split four matches on clay this year You’d figure them to survive wild cards Grant-Pigato in round one, but keep in mind that some of the bigger underdog wins have come at the unexpected expense of seeds in Rome the last few years. Gauff is back on the doubles court this week after playing Madrid with Robin Montgomery. They made a somewhat surprising run to the quarterfinals. It may be on the American to carry the load with her younger partner Eala this week. Eala has some doubles experience, but nothing like playing at this level in this kind of tournament. Panova-Stollar are a pair with some experience, but one I think that Gauff-Eala can beat if they mesh style-wise.

This second quarter could simply fall to Errani-Paolini with questions surrounding nearly every duo in this section. It won’t be easy if they are able to get it together. As for this half overall, Andreeva-Shnaider are still my favorites. They benefit from a better draw this week, so they should get back to their ways of making deep runs more often than not. Fernandez-Putintseva are my dark horses here. I think they can take advantage of the third seeded Italians slump in 2025 and provide an unseeded threat in this half.

My Favorite: Andreeva-Shnaider
My Sleeper: Fernandez-Putintseva

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter is led by (4)Hsieh-Ostapenko who picked up right where they left off in February last time out. They made the Madrid semifinals, their third SF of the season in five tournaments played. They start with Mihalikova-Nicholls, a pair that has lost four straight, including three straight openers. I think this will be four straight in that regard. I look for Hsieh-Ostapenko to see Kudermetova-Mertens in round two. I mentioned earlier that they did not look like a pair in Madrid that had not taken the same side of the court since 2022. It won’t be an easy opener with Babos-Stefani fully capable of springing an upset. The two vets made the Stuttgart semifinals earlier this Spring on clay. The survivor of that one will bring danger to a meeting with Hsieh-Ostapenko.

The other half houses (8)Muhammad-Schuurs, who may be fortunate to survive round one. The seeds battle Bucsa-Moratelli in their opener. While they have no experience together, Muhammad-Schuurs have been so up and down early in tournaments, that they always seem prone to an upset. I think it’s likely Kenin-Kichenok for the winners in round two. They square off against Italians Bronzetti-Cociaretto who have won just once in five career matches together. I’d be more surprised to see the seeds survive to the quarterfinal in this section. Kenin-Kichenok are my picks to click in this part of the draw. I’m backing Hsieh-Ostapenko though for another semifinal.

The final quarter is absolutely LOADED. That’s bad news for (2)Siniakova-Zhang and (5)Dolehide-Krawczyk. Siniakova-Zhang have chemistry oozing out of their pores in their time together. They’re hard to pick against, but they also have a harsh series of matches waiting for them. Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova are the first. They’re 2-2 this year with both losses in super tie breaks and three of four overall going to STBs. They feel “due” for a big win, but I’m not sure it gets completed here early. The winner may see the Aussies Hunter-Perez in round two. I was disappointed with their showing against Gauff-Montgomery in round two in Madrid, so perhaps they rev it up a notch this week. I’d expect a win over Linette-Sramkova to start their Rome campaign. We will get a battle of ex-partners either way if the Aussies win with Perez and Melichar-Martinez being a long-term pairing prior to 2025 and Hunter having teamed with Siniakova before her injury last Spring.

In the other half, I think most will expect Haddad Maia-Siegemund to knock off Dolehide-Krawczyk in round one. They’re a better pairing right now in my opinion. The other battle in round one in that section pits Kostyuk-Ruse against Kato-Sutjiadi. Kostyuk-Ruse are playing Rome for a third time with both previous runs seeing them ousted in round two. That may well happen again with Kato-Sutjiadi 0-2 on clay this year, although they do have some success on the surface dating back to 2023. That could set up Haddad Maia-Siegemund for another quarterfinal, what would be their fifth this year. They have Andreeva-Shnaider’s number, beating the Russians twice in 2025, but they have failed to knock off the other top tier teams they’ve met. Haddad Maia-Siegemund have lost twice to Siniakova-Townsend in a third set and a super tie break, a third set to Dabrowski-Routliffe back in Australia, and last week’s straight sets loss to Hsieh-Ostapenko in Madrid. For me, it’s Siniakova-Zhang if they survive round one. If not, then Haddad Maia-Siegemund may get a nice path laid out for them.

My Favorite: Hsieh-Ostapenko
My Sleeper: Haddad Maia-Siegemund

CLOSING TIME

I don’t care for Dabrowski-Routliffe in this draw. I think the consistency is still lacking and their path doesn’t look conducive to a finals sort of run. Most of you know that I’m a huge backer of the Andreeva-Shnaider combo that has been fun to watch since we first saw them break out last year. With this draw, I think they have a shot to get to their third final this year. In the bottom half, Hsieh-Ostapenko have the least questions amongst the seeds and a better draw than Siniakova-Zhang. Does that mean Queen Katerina won’t show up and show out? Of course not. She’s made the semifinals or finals of all six tournaments she’s played in doubles this year. I still don’t like that draw though, so I’ll (probably stupidly) look past the two seeds.

With the likes of Kudermetova-Mertens, Haddad Maia-Siegemund and Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova all as unseeded menaces in the bottom half though, it might be wise to check one of them out to continue the unseeded trend in Rome. I’m going with Haddad Maia-Siegemund to finally get back to a final. They made the Adelaide final in their opening tournament of 2025, but have fallen short the rest of the way. It’s time.

PIG PIX

Andreeva-Shnaider
Haddad Maia-Siegemund