ATP Madrid Preview

MADRID NEWS & NOTES

*A “singles pair” worked through the Madrid draw a year ago to take home the titles. Korda-Thompson became the 4th unseeded champions in the last six runs in Madrid after beating Behar-Pavlasek (also unseeded) as stout 1.42 (-238) favorites. The straight sets victory ended a three-year run of super tie break finishes in the Madrid finale.

*Unseeded pairs have a nice history of making deep runs at this stop. Korda-Thompson and Behar-Pavlasek’s trip to the semifinals marked the third time in the last five runs in Madrid that multiple unseeded pairs made it to the final four. 2016 was the last time that the semifinal field was all-seeded, so it’s a fairly safe bet that you’ll see at least one unseeded pair in this year’s semifinals.

*For some reason, Madrid felt the need to seed 16 teams for the first time last year. Five of those seeds went out in the opening round with no byes for any of the seeds. That included two of the top four seeds. That’s something that has not changed over the past three years with multiple top four seeds going down in their openers in three straight seasons.

*The top seeds have been especially vulnerable in the altitude. The #1 seeded pair has lost their opening match in four of the last five runs of the Mutua Madrid Open. Even survival early hasn’t led to much success for the team with the #1 next to their names. 2016 is the last time the top seeds here made it as far as the semifinals with 2014 being the last time the top seeds made it to the final (Bryans). The Bryans were the last #1 seeds to win the titles. That was back in 2013!

*Underdogs scored eight wins in 2024 out of the 30 completed matches. The biggest win came in round one at 5.09 (+409) when Benjamin Hassan and Abedallah Shelbayh stunned (4)Dodig-Krajicek. Five of the dog scores came in round one. There was another massive win for the dogs in round one in 2023 at a whopping 7.09 (+609) when Spanish duo Carballes Baena-Landaluce upset Matos-Vega Hernandez. That was one of eleven dog hits in 2023 overall. Round one was again the most frequent landing spot with seven of those wins coming in the opening round. Of those 12 round one underdog wins the last two years, seven involved seeded pairs.

*Super tie breaks were frequent in 2024 with 12 out of the 30 matches needing the extra frame to settle the match. Five of those came in round one with the quarterfinals also providing a home to STBs with three of the four QFs featuring a STB. Three of the last four years in Madrid have seen three of the four quarterfinals go to a super tie break. The 12 total STBs in 2024 were a low mark in the last three years however with 15 in 2023 and 14 in 2022.

*With all of the teams in the 20 in the live doubles race rankings, Madrid becomes a monster tournament for potential movement. Heliovaara-Patten enter the tournament with a dwindling lead of just 300 points over Arevalo-Pavic for the top spot. Cash-Glasspool come in at number three within 365 points of the #2 spot. Bolelli-Vavassori stay on the fringe of the upper tier at number four despite a big slump. They’re almost 600 points back of Cash-Glasspool, but still hold a 350 point lead over Harrison-King who have yet to secure a win on clay in three tournaments. The gap from Harrison-King at #5 to Arneodo-Guinard at #8 is 575 points. With 1000 points going to the winner, any team within shouting distance of that 8th spot could sling shot up the rankings rapidly this week.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

Unlike the women’s draw that has not seen an unseeded champion in many moons, the men have a recent history of unseeded success in the altitude in Madrid. That means it will pay to look on the outside of the seeded field for potential surprise contenders this week.

Bopanna-Shelton
These two were #1 on my list when I saw their names on the entry list. The grizzled vet Bopanna has again found a worthy fountain of youth (think Shapovalov) in Shelton to give him some of his best results of 2025. They’ve gone 3-2 in Monte-Carlo and Munich so far in their first action as a pair. That includes a win over Bolelli-Vavassori. Prior to teaming with Shelton, Bopanna had gone 1-6 with three different partners. This partnership WORKS and will be scary given the quick conditions here. Odd years have been good to Bops in Madrid with a quarterfinal run with Shapovalov back in 2021 and a finals berth in 2023 with Ebden.

Salisbury-Skupski
The Barcelona runners-up may not yet be in stride, but the wins last week should have done well to boost their confidence. It was their 2nd final of 2025 and first tournament with consecutive wins since their 1st final in Doha. This week likely tells more about their true form as they did take advantage of a weaker field in Barcelona. They’ll find more challenges this time around. Super tie breaks may be a positive for them with a 6-3 record in STBs in 2025.

Khachanov-Rublev
This will be the Russians’ first trip back to Madrid as a pair since they won the titles in 2023. To date, that is their best result as a pair by far with a career record floundering around .500 at 52-53. They got their first doubles win since making the Hong Kong final in January last time out in Monte-Carlo over Mektic-Venus. Despite a relative lack of good results in the past 18 months or so, this is a danger duo that will not be one that a seed wants to see early. They can help blow up the draw with an upset and certainly have proven to love the conditions in Madrid.

Erler-Frantzen
The Austrian-German pair have been solid on clay at 10-5 this year, but can they step up in weight class with the big boys? They did make the semifinals in both Buenos Aires and Barcelona, but those draws didn’t feature as much top tier talent. If you look at their body of work, they have yet to face a power team with Salisbury-Skupski being the best pair they’ve probably faced. They lost to them in the Barcelona semifinals 5-7, 6-2, 10-4. They might need help to be a real threat, but they do seem capable of being pests in this draw regardless.

Ebden-Peers
The Aussies have not come close to reproducing results any where close to last Summer’s gold medal run in Paris. At 3-3 in limited action in 2025, they still do look the part of a potential unseeded menace. Two of their three losses came in super tie breaks to Harrison-King and Arevalo-Pavic on hard courts. They lost their first clay court match of the year to Salisbury-Skupski in Barcelona 7-6, 6-3. I still wouldn’t want to see them in my part of the draw and they’re one of those teams that may just need a lucky break to make some noise.

Goransson-Verbeek
The Munich champs are in the same section with Krawietz-Puetz again, the team they beat in the Munich final. It might be hard to beat them again just a week later, but it’s also not ideal for the Germans I would suspect. Four of their six matches on clay have gone to super tie breaks, so they’re usually competing well and in it with a shot to claim victory.

Doumbia-Reboul
They made the quarterfinals here last year. The French pair might do more damage at 250s, but they’re still usually at their best on this surface. Residing in the quarter with (1)Arevalo-Pavic and (6)Mektic-Venus, keep an eye on them. They have yet to beat Arevalo-Pavic, but pushed them to a super tie break in Monte-Carlo, losing 10-7. Their other three matches against them have featured four tie break sets out of six played. The confidence of finally grabbing a set off of this week’s top seeds could aid their cause if they can work to another rematch.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

Sanity prevails with Madrid going back to the typical eight seeds this year. Let’s take a look at the ones who could be prone to an early upset. There are a lot of interesting round one battles set.

(3)Krawietz-Puetz
The Germans got some much needed wins in Munich, but have to be disappointed in losing the final on home soil. They get the red hot tandem of Arneodo-Guinard, who catapulted into the top eight in the rankings with a surprise run to the Monte-Carlo titles. Wins over Granollers-Zeballos, Heliovaara-Patten and Cash-Glasspool in that mix shout loudly that they’re not to be taken lightly. The big question on them is whether that was more a product of home cooking or their abilities. They are 11-4 as a pair this year, but until Monte-Carlo, a lot of that came at the Challenger level. This is one of the most interesting R1 matches to me with both teams having plenty to prove.

(4)Bolelli-Vavassori
An absolute BANGER on tap in round one when the Italians meet Salisbury-Skupski. The four seeds have dropped their opener in three of their last five tournaments played. That includes their clay debut in 2025 against Bopanna-Shelton in Monte-Carlo. Salisbury-Skupski come in with some of their best form after making the Barcelona final, but as I stated earlier, I’m still skeptical in that they have not gone up against a top tier team like Bolelli-Vavassori in that mix. I still expect given the Italians’ recent struggles, this will be a tough one for them.

(5)Granollers-Zeballos
Even though they are scheduled to take on singles pair Arthur Fils and Casper Ruud first, I have to have them on the list. That’s due to two straight opening match defeats to teams you would not expect them to be losing to when they’re fully healthy and rolling. Those came on the heels of winning the Bucharest titles, so form went from hero to zero quickly. Madrid has usually been good to them with a title run in 2021 and semifinals last year. They did however lose their opener here in 2023 when they arrived in a similar slump (3 straight opening losses).

(6)Mektic-Venus
They’re 1-2 on clay, losing to both competent pairs that they’ve met (Khachanov-Rublev, Salisbury-Skupski). I don’t know if Behar-Vliegen fit that bill just yet, but they have split their first four matches together, all on clay. Mektic-Venus still have a propensity for super tie breaks with ten played out of their 18 matches in that format. They have lost their openers three times this year, so it’s a possibility.

(7)Cash-Glasspool
I normally wouldn’t put my British boys on the list, but they do come off their first opening match loss of 2025 in Barcelona. Perhaps that an be written off after a long run to the Monte-Carlo final the previous week. That ended with a tight 10-8 loss in the final in a super tie break. It’s Gille-Zielinski first up, a duo that has shown some life on clay. They’re 3-3 and narrowly lost to Krawietz-Puetz in the Munich semifinals. I think Cash-Glasspool need to prove themselves early after their early loss last time out.

(8)Lammons-Withrow
They’re baaaaack! It’s been nearly three months since we’ve seen the Americans paired up due to an injury for Lammons. They had struggled some to start the year at just 2-4. That included two opening round losses out of four played. The Americans had a nice run here a year ago in making the quarterfinals, but this is a rough spot. They square off against Bopanna-Shelton who are fully capable of taking advantage of any rustiness that might be present.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE for the men’s draw

TOP HALF

Arevalo-Pavic lead the first quarter as the top seeds in Madrid. They lost their opener here in 2024 and have seen super tie breaks in six of their last seven matches overall. They are 5-1, but it also shows that there may be some reckoning coming for them. Matos-Melo are first up, a team they are 3-0 against in their careers. The winners get Murray-Ram or Nys/Roger-Vasselin. The French pair might be the better choice with a Marrakech final to their credit this Spring and a win over Murray-Ram in a super tie break in Monte-Carlo. Of course that also means revenge will be on the minds of Murray-Ram who are seeking their first win in their third match together in 2025. Regardless, I think Arevalo-Pavic should get through to the quarterfinals, although it may require more super tie break work.

The bottom half of the quarter houses (6)Mektic-Venus who match against Behar-Vliegen in round one. I already talked about the potential for an upset in this spot with the seeds playing plenty of super tie breaks already this year. Watch the match opposite of them with singles pair Cobolli-Musetti battling Doumbia-Reboul. The Italian singles stars shouldn’t be taken lightly. They paired in Beijing last year, beating Skupski-Venus before dropping a 7-5, 6-4 result to Koolhof-Mektic. With the conditions in Madrid aiding quicker balls, the Italians will have a legit shot to win. I like an unseeded pair to work their way through to the quarters in this section as Mektic-Venus play too many close matches that can teeter on a super tie break. I think Doumbia-Reboul might have the best shot to match up with Arevalo-Pavic, but don’t sleep on the Italians in this section.

There are some pitfalls waiting for (1)Arevalo-Pavic in this quarter. Their recent rash of super tie breaks does give you cause to pause about picking them as sure-fire semifinalists. I still think they have the best games to get through here, but it’s definitely set up to be a bit of a battle.

The second quarter has (4)Bolelli-Vavassori and (8)Lammons-Withrow as the seeds. In the Italians’ half, they could be one and done again with a surging Salisbury-Skupski up in round one. The match opposite of them qualifies for a BANGER ALERT with Harrison-King set to square off with Ebden-Peers. Harrison-King have struggled mightily on clay against teams that don’t bring to the table what the Aussies can. Their clay allergy may continue in Madrid, but I won’t be surprised if they perform here with the conditions suiting them a bit better than the usual slower clay courts. For me, Bolelli-Vavassori are going to be a tough choice this week with both Harrison-King and Ebden-Peers having victories over them this year. I still think clay will eventually help the seeds turn around their recent struggles, but it might be another week with this kind of set up.

As for the Lammons-Withrow half, the Americans power serving game is suited well to Madrid. Still, you’ve got a lengthy layoff between the partners and a challenging opener against Bopanna-Shelton to contend with to start their campaign. Survival in round one sets the winner up against Gonzalez-Molteni or Arribage-Cerundolo lurking next. Gonzalez-Molteni have been surprisingly ineffective on clay this swing with a 1-2 record. They looked great in the early South American swing, but if you look at their body of work on clay, that’s par for the course. Other than Barcelona, they’ve routinely struggled to do much at stops like Madrid, Rome and Monte-Carlo. This year, even Barcelona was poor for them. That said, I think you can make the case for Lammons-Withrow or Bopanna-Shelton to be the favorite to get to the quarterfinals. You already know that I’ve got a feeling about Bopanna-Shelton being the ones.

This quarter looks wide open with neither seed arriving with form or confidence. I think you’d be wise to check on the unseeded pairs as potential dark horse runners. Even if Bolelli-Vavassori haven’t shown the same form that we saw early in 2025, a win by Salisbury-Skupski over them early will be a huge boost for the Brits. I do think Harrison-King are worth a look this week with the conditions better for them and Bopanna-Shelton have already made a quarterfinal on clay.

My Favorite: Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: Bopanna-Shelton

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter has some quality unseeded pairs that could make life difficult for (3)Krawietz-Puetz an (7)Cash-Glasspool. Staring with the Germans, their half sees them up against it in round one versus Monte-Carlo champs Arneodo-Guinard. You can question Arenodo-Guinard’s expectations with Monte-Carlo providing a home boost for them, but I can’t question the wins they scored. Given that Krawietz-Puetz are still working back to find their best form, this opener should tell a lot about both pairs. The Germans are 1-2 in two trips to Madrid, so it hasn’t been a big boost to their profile. The survivors could see Munich champs Goransson-Verbeek next. They’ll need to get past Mensik-Pavlasek first. All the Czechs previous work has come in Davis Cup play, so this is new territory. I could see them taking a set, but Goransson-Verbeek should end up being tough enough to move on. An Areneodo-Guinard versus Goransson-Verbeek clash would be wild to see two previous unseeded champions from last week going at it the next week.

For the Cash-Glasspool half, all eyes may focus on Khachanov-Rublev who could be in their path in round two. The Brits would do well not to overlook Gille-Zielinski in round one however with that pair set to provide a stern test to start. As for the unseeded Russian singles stars, their 2023 run may have been an outlier, but there’s no doubt the conditions here should suit them. They’ll battle Machac-Paul, a first time pairing of singles guys. Both are capable on the doubles court, but the chemistry certainly isn’t likely to be near what Khachanov and Rublev have after so many matches played together. Even though Khachanov-Rublev may be a popular pick, don’t forget that they did not win back-to-back matches in their two previous trips before 2023. That also goes for 2025 since their surprising Hong Kong finals run. I still favor Cash-Glaspool to grab the quarterfinal berth, but surely won’t be that surprised if they fall short either.

Cash-Glasspool have a better draw than Krawietz-Puetz. There’s no hiding that fact. If a seed gets through to the last eight, I’d definitely side with the Brits. Certainly both Goransson-Verbeek and Arneodo-Guinard are going to be unseeded pairs with belief this week. Can either one harness that into another big run? I think Arneodo-Guinard may just need another marquee name added to their hit list to take off again. Beating Krawietz-Puetz would certainly fit that bill.

The final quarter starts with (2)Heliovaara-Patten have been as steady as you can find in the doubles ranks, but have only been to two finals. Outside of winning the Australian Open and finishing runners-up in Dubai, they have made at least the quarterfinals in four of the other six tournaments played. That includes consecutive semifinals in Miami and Monte-Carlo. This draw looks conducive to continuing that quarterfinal streak with Behar-Galloway up first. They’re short on experience together with just one match, but they’ll still likely keep the sets tight and maybe even take one. I’d expect Heliovaara-Patten to avoid the upset. Who they face next is one to note. Ivan Dodig continues his partner roulette, pairing up with one half of last year’s winning duo in Seb Korda. Korda will be Dodig’s fifth partner in 2025. He comes in with six straight losses. They open with Erler-Frantzen who I touched on earlier. They’ve got good form, but have yet to beat a top notch pair. Playing a first time pairing should help give them a shot to win another one on clay to start. I don’t know that either one matches up with Heliovaara-Patten if that’s how the draw falls.

The other half of the quarter sees Granollers-Zeballos trying to get the hell off the struggle bus. It looked like they were ready for take off a few weeks back after winning the titles in Bucharest, but losses to German qualifiers in Munich and Arneodo-Guinard in round one in Monte-Carlo have derailed those hopes. Fils-Ruud may have zero time together, but does it matter right now? I’m going with the seeds again, but it’s a real shaky yes on survival in round one. Looking at the match opposite of that one, I see two booming serves pairing up in Mpetshi-Perricard and Olivetti against Davidovich Fokina-Tiafoe. If there is a place where serves alone could carry you to a win, Madrid is it. If MP-Olivetti are able to land those first serves consistently, I’d expect them to get by in the opener. Theoretically, they could be a danger in the next round too if those serves stay in tune. IF and it’s a massive IF, but IF Granollers-Zeballos are going to truly get on track, Madrid seems like the setting to do so. It’s a fairly soft part of the draw to get them to the quarterfinals and their track record is mostly outstanding at this tournament.

Heliovaara-Patten clearly look the class of this last quarter and they’ve rarely just thrown in an absolute funk effort. If they remain consistent, I think they’re the team to beat in this bottom half. Cash-Glasspool would be the team I think is closest to them and they do own a 7-6, 7-6 win against the Australian Open champs in Miami last month. If the Brits had not flopped in Barcelona, I’d probably be even higher on their chances. I still wouldn’t mind backing them as a potential finalist in this half either, but their quarter is quite a bit sturdier than Heliovaara-Patten’s.

My Favorite: Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Gille-Zielinski

CLOSING TIME

Outside of the top two seeds and maybe Cash-Glasspool, there are plenty of questions needing answers for the seeded field in Madrid. Could that leave the door open for yet another unseeded pair to run through to the titles? I do think Madrid with its altitude and quicker travelling balls gives hope to some outsiders who have consistent power on serve. We’ve already seen it with the likes of Korda-Thompson and Khachanov-Rublev over the past two seasons. I don’t necessarily have them high on my bingo card, but the pairing of Mpetshi Perricard and Olivetti could be fascinating if those two monsters can stay consistent on serve. An underrated pair could be Gille-Zielinski who both have the power, but also do get the yips on serve from time to time.

When you’re looking strictly at pound for pound power amongst the top tier guys, Heliovaara-Patten and Cash-Glasspool both have the requisite serves to contend. I’d put Arevalo-Pavic up fairly high with their prowess on clay, but I’m a bit worried given the #1 seed jinx here and their recent flurry of super tie breaks that is bound to even out against them at some point. The X-factor amongst the seeds for me are Bolelli-Vavassori. They’re too good to stay in their current slump, so perhaps they break out when we think they will not. But again, there are a lot of questions without answers until many of these pairs hit the court. That makes the field of contenders much smaller for me.

PIG PIX

Heliovaara-Patten
Bopanna-Shelton