MADRID NEWS & NOTES
*It was a huge underdog win in 2024 when (8)Bucsa-Sorribes Tormo scored the upset win in the final over (6)Krejcikova-Siegemund as 3.76 (+276) dogs in the championship match. The win marked the third straight year that the underdog won the title match with the other hits coming at 2.30 (+130) and 2.18 (+118). The straight sets finish was the fourth in the last five runs in Madrid.
*Underdogs overall had a modest success rate in 2024 with nine wins out of the 31 matches completed. Unsurprisingly, five of the wins came in round one where more than half the matches (16) for the tournament are played. The total underdog wins last year came to just one more than 2023 (8). Round one was again your best place to find the dog wins with five. 2023 had a bigger haul in those wins though with three of those scores coming above 3.00 (+200) at 3.19 (+219), 3.72 (+272) and 3.94 (+294). There was one more hit over 3.00 in round two at 3.74 (+274). Surprisingly, only one of those matches involved a seed losing.
*Seeds made it almost unscathed in the opening round with only the #2 seeds losing. That was a switch with at least three seeds going down each of the previous three yearsin. In 2024, three of the four semifinal slots would go to seeded pairs, but only one of the top four seeds was included in that mix. Six of the eight quarterfinal spots were occupied by seeds. That was a stark contrast to 2023 when only two seeds made it to the final eight and just one continued on to the semis. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the semifinals each run in Madrid since 2019. Only two unseeded pairs have claimed the titles since 2015 with 2023 (Azarenka/Haddad Maia) being the last time it happened. Those two years (2015/2023) were also the only time an unseeded team made the finals in that stretch.
*Super tie breaks were needed in eleven of the 31 matches last year in Madrid. The quarterfinals were a big spot for these with three of the four QFs needed the extra frame. There were an even dozen STBs in 2023 with the majority (8) coming in round one. There have been at least ten super tie breaks needed each run in Madrid since 2017. However, there seems little rhyme nor reason to what round they go down in, so just keep your eyes on the match-ups instead.
*Dabrowski-Routliffe are the top seeds this week after taking their debut tournament on clay in Stuttgart last week. That win also marked their first title together in 2025. History wil be against them with the top seeds in Madrid not having won the titles since Makarova-Vesnina in 2018. Errani-Paolini, Hsieh-Ostapenko and Dolehide-Krawczyk round out the top four seeds. The second seeded Italians are struggling with opening losses in three of their last four tournaments, while Hsieh-Ostapenko re-up on their partnership that’s been on hiatus since late February. Dolehide-Krawczyk played their first tournament together in 2025 back in Charleston on clay. They looked refreshed after not partnering this year and hold a 12-5 record together on clay.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
The lack of unseeded winners in Madrid won’t detract from looking at the unseeded field. Remember, there has been a steady flow of unseeded pairs that do make it as far as the semifinals. Here are the duos that stick out as ones to watch at this tournament.
Babos-Stefani
This pair has shown enough in nine matches (7-2) in 2025 to consider them a threat. All three of their matches in Stuttgart went to super tie breaks with the loss coming to Dabrowski-Routliffe. Playing that many STBs means you’re competitive, but it can also work against you as a sign of inconsistency from set-to-set. The intriguing match-up could come in round two, where they may get another crack at Dabrowski-Routliffe and that could be a draw changer.
Siegemund-Haddad Maia
One of my favorite pairings comes to Madrid as the #7 pair in the live doubles race, yet they remain unseeded. They’re in an unfortunate position where they would likely have to go through one or both of Andreeva-Shnaider and Hsieh-Ostapenko to make a semifinal. Still, this is a pair that took Siniakova-Townsend to a super tie break in a pair of losses on hard courts this year and beat Andreeva-Shnaider in a STB in Indian Wells. They’re a tough out, so they definitely have sleeper potential despite a difficult draw.
Azarenka-Krueger
Purely a gut pick on these two who have never paired in the past. Azarenka does have a good history in Madrid, winning here in 2023 with Haddad Maia. She hasn’t played much doubles since then however with only five doubles matches since that win. Krueger has played a half dozen doubles matches in 2025 with Pegula as her partner. They may have only gone 2-4, but there was only one match in that mix where they were outclassed.
Hunter-Perez
Oh .. my .. God … do I love this pair. The double Aussie duo was dominant in Billie Jean King Cup play earlier in the month. They’ve won their last six matches together, including a title run on clay in Reus back in 2023. They’re high on the list of unseeded pairs who are potential finals contenders as they’ve displayed some superb chemistry in limited play.
Kudermetova-Mertens
This was a dynamite pairing back in 2022 as far as their record went. That’s the last time they paired up. Kudermetova-Mertens were 31-9 overall winning the WTA Finals championship match. They are 6-1 in their careers on clay as a pair. The big question obviously is whether or not they can pick up where they left off. Kudermetova has struggled this year with a switch back to Chan after partner swapping in Australia. Mertens will be her fourth partner in 2025. Mertens herself is on partner number four after starting the season with Ellen Perez. She has made a pair of doubles quarterfinals this year, but also has dropped openers in two tournaments. If the chemistry comes back, they’re dangerous, but that may be a big if.
Alexandrova-Stearns
This is a pair that has seen the court together this year and showed well with a quarterfinal run in Miami. Alexandrova comes in off a finals trip in Stuttgart with Zhang, so she’s got the clay court reps. Stearns only clay court play this year came with Shnaider in Charleston. They made the quarterfinals. They look the part of a danger duo and are in a part of the draw that features some seeds who arrive with some shaky form.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
(2)Errani-Paolini
I thought clay would help the Italians find their mojo, but it was another opening match loss in Stuttgart for the Olympic gold medalists. Granted, Alexandrova-Zhang proved to be a solid pair, but the confidence for these two in doubles is a bit low right now. They get veterans Chan-Olmos, who will be pairing up for the first time since Miami last Spring. They have never paired on clay either, so that should aid the Italians search for an elusive win. I have this probably lowest on the list of possibilities as I still hold high hopes for Errani-Paolini on clay, but with their current form, you have to keep them on the list.
(4)Dolehide-Krawczyk
The Americans will face a total unknown factor in fellow Americans Gauff-Montgomery to start. That said, we know Coco has had a ton of success on clay in doubles. That said, you have to look at her partners for those 48 wins against 21 losses. The likes of Pegula, Siniakova and Routliffe helped her win her first Grand Slam title and make another Slam final. Montgomery hasn’t played a ton of doubles in the past year or so and definitely isn’t in the class of Gauff’s former partners, but chemistry can be an elixir for different talent levels. Dolehide-Krawczyk looked good in Charleston until they started stepping up on competition level. Gauff-Montgomery could wind up being tricky.
(5)Andreeva-Shnaider
How dare I?! Putting the dynamic duo on upset watch in Madrid? I feel it’s warranted though with the Russians facing an in-form pair in Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova. They made the Stuttgart semifinals, losing to Alexandrova-Zhang in the semifinals in a super tie break. They are 6-1 lifetime in doubles. The Russians haven’t paired since they won Miami and while layoffs don’t seem to effect their results very much, this could be a tight spot that requires really good tennis from the first ball.
(7)Muhammad-Schuurs
Since winning Indian Wells, this pair has lost two of three. They did win their opener on clay last time out in Stuttgart, but were blown out in round two by MM-Samsonova. Azarenka-Krueger are their foes in round one. I touched on that pair earlier. If their strengths work well together, they could be a dark horse contender. There are certainly a lot of questions given that Azarenka hasn’t played a doubles match since Berlin last June. Still, she’s always been a capable and sometimes unstoppable doubles player. This will be an interesting watch.
(8)Kenin-Kichenok
If you read my previews, you’ll have seen this pair on this list before. After a run of four straight tournament opening losses in January-February, they have avoided early defeat in three straight. I’m still on the fence about them from week to week. They square off against Niculescu-Piter who have played just a single match together. They did compete well however, losing a super tie break to Mertens-Zhang in Miami. It could well be another tight finish in this one with the potential for an upset.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
It figures to be a much more challenging tournament for Dabrowski-Routliffe this week. With Hsieh-Ostapenko and Andreeva-Shnaider also in their half, it is going to be a truer test of where they stand on clay. The top seeds wouldn’t have to worry about either of those pairs until the semifinals however, so that bodes well. (5)Danilina-Khromacheva are the other seeds in their quarter. As for Dabrowski-Routliffe’s half of the quarter, it is Cirstea-Kalinskaya to open. It will be their first time teaming up, so that should give the top seeds the edge to get through. The other match in that section features Babos-Stefani against Eikeri-Hozumi. We last saw Eikeri and Hozumi together on clay in 2023. That was the lone year that they paired, going 9-4 with all the matches on clay. A lot of that success was at lower level tournaments, so facing Babos-Stefani is going to be a bigger ask.
As for Danilina-Khromacheva, they face the one-off pairing of Aoyama-Bucsa. While I didn’t put them on the watch list for an upset this week, it wouldn’t totally surprise me. Bucsa won with Sorribes Tormo in Bogota earlier in the year and she’s proven a handy partner for most. Remember she is half of last year’s championship team from Madrid last year. I don’t know that Aoyama is going to be the sort of partner she needs to have that sort of run again, but we have to wait and see if they mesh well or not. Danilina-Khromacheva were deadly on clay in 2024 (13-1) with three titles. This however is a more prestigious tournament than any they played during that stretch and figures to pit them against tougher competition each round. The other match in their quadrant is a toss up with Noskova-Tauson teaming up for the second time this year and Boulter-Kasakina pairing for the first time ever. Noskova-Tauson have played more doubles, but I don’t think it necessarily gives them an edge here. Regardless, I’d put the Danilina-Khromacheva versus Aoyama-Bucsa winner ahead of either of those two.
I won’t completely sleep on Danilina-Khromacheva in this quarter. They could take advantage of someone else doing the dirty work to take out Dabrowski-Routliffe. Babos-Stefani would certainly seem like the likeliest sleeper of this quarter.
As for the second quarter in this half, giddyup! Hsieh-Ostapenko and Andreeva-Shnaider are the seeds. You can look to the likes of Siegemund-Haddad Maia and Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova as two of the best and brightest unseeded pairs to keep your eyes on. The question with Hsieh-Ostapenko is how they’ll do after a few months apart. The three seeds are 8-4 together, but have not played on anything but hard courts. Their last match was in Dubai in February. Mihalikova-Nicholls will force them to show well right off the bat if they hope to advance. The survivor gets Kichenok-Xu or Panova-Stollar in round two. Those two play for the second straight week with Panova-Stollar having gotten the better of their foes in Stuttgart 4-6, 6-1, 10-5.
The other half looks enticing with Andreeva-Shnaider squaring off with Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova in round one. That is a fascinating match to start off with MM-Samsonova scoring some wins on clay in Stuttgart. This is a bigger test for them, but I would be surprised if they didn’t take a set off the 5th seeded Russians. Andreeva-Shnaider have only lost their opener ONCE in their seven career tournaments together. That one did come this year against Siegemund-Haddad Maia in Indian Wells. That could be the pair waiting for the Russians in round two with Siegemund-Haddad Maia scheduled to battle Wang-Zheng in round one. Wang-Zheng will be tough as the Chinese duo proving good at this tournament last year with a quarterfinal run. Four of their seven matches on clay last year needed a super tie break to settle. Don’t be surprised to see a STB versus Siegemund-Haddad Mia who have played six of those in their 13 matches in the super tie break format in 2025. They are 18-9 all-time as a pair, but this will be the first time to see them on clay together. Siegemund-Haddad Maia are certainly the X-factor in this section as they have proven capable of taking out Andreeva-Shnaider. I’d imagine the Russians wouldn’t mind getting another shot at them though.
This is a tricky quarter to predict. Hsieh-Ostapenko definitely have the pedigree to win this whole tournament. Ostapenko has been playing exceptionally well with or without Hsieh this year and they have the easier path to a quarterfinal over Andreeva-Shnaider. If Hsieh-Ostapenko make it to the last eight, I don’t think we’re going to get a bad match-up against them no matter who makes it. Andreeva-Shnaider, MM-Samsonova or Siegemund-Haddad Maia should make them earn it, if they advance farther. I’ve been a big supporter of Andreeva-Shnaider all season and back to last year, so they’re still favorites here for me. That said, I do think Hsieh-Ostapenko and others have the capability to take them down.
My Favorite: Andreeva-Shnaider
My Sleeper: Siegemund-Haddad Maia
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter looks wide open with some dangerous looking unseeded pairs in the mix. The seed in the top portion of the quarter is (7)Muhammad-Schuurs. The Indian Wells champs got their feet wet on clay in Stuttgart with a win and a loss. Azarenka-Krueger are their first foes and are an intriguing unseeded pair. The team you might keep your eyes on are Alexandrova-Stearns. They have experience from a nice quarterfinal run in Miami earlier in the season. They get Blinkova-Wu, a team that paired up at the Australian Open with a win and a loss. The loss came to Muhammad-Schuurs in a third set. No matter who gets through, I think they’ll have a shot against the survivor from the other match.
The bottom half of this quarter looks like it’s open to just as much havoc with Dolehide-Krawczyk as the seeds. They did have the nice run in Charleston, but that was their only work together so far this year. This draw looks much more difficult and they’ll find that out early with wild cards Gauff-Montgomery. The wild card moniker fits perfect on this pair because we have no clue how they’ll do. Gauff has been solid in doubles when she plays, but she will be stepping onto the doubles court for the first time in 2025 this tournament. They may well get past their fellow Americans, but round two looks even more dangerous. That is where we may see Aussies Hunter-Perez waiting. Fernandez-Putintseva had that outrageous Cincinnati finals run last year, but they have only played two tournaments together in their careers. The Aussies have recent reps together and I think get through and look like potential quarterfinal runners in this section.
I’ll be a bit shocked if a seed gets it done in this quarter. Dolehide-Krawczyk would me the more logical choice, but I’m looking at teams like Hunter-Perez and Alexandrova-Stearns as big time contenders to blow up this quarter. The Azarenka-Krueger and Gauff-Montgomery pairings could surprise too, but we have to see how they interact first.
The final quarter has (2)Errani-Paolini as the lead seeds. The Italians have not had the success they had in 2024, but I still think they are a scary team, especially on clay. Chan-Olmos are first up and while the veterans could provide a test for the second seeds, it would be another great disappointment if the Italians flamed out in round one again. The X-factor in this bottom half could be Kudermetova-Mertens who reform for the first time since 2022. They take on Kato-Sutjiadi first, a pair that has lost six of their last eight. That should allow the 2022 WTA Finals’ champions a shot to get through to round two where they will definitely be a threat to Errani-Paolini, if the Italians make it.
The other half of the quarter features (8)Kenin-Kichenok. Their 4-5 record this year isn’t too impressive, but they have at least avoided an opening loss in each of their last three tournaments. I do think Niculescu-Piter will be an opponent that could push them hard in round one. Whoever advances could be considered the quarterfinal favorites in this section with a singles pair in Keys-Sakkari set to battle Linette-Sramkova in round one. It’s tough to figure out which one of those first time partnerships will get it together for the win. None of those players have more than a few doubles matches to their credit this year. This could be a week where Kenin-Kichenok sneak through if they can get out of round one unscathed.
At this point last year, I think I would have been all-in on Errani-Paolini making the semifinals with this set up. I still think they’ve got the ability to get on track this week and make that happen, but the confidence isn’t as high with their recent struggles. Still, looking through this quarter, Kudermetova-Mertens are the only other pair that really stands out to me. If the Italians can’t get it going this week, it just might not be their year.
My Favorite: Hunter-Perez
My Sleeper: Kudermetova-Mertens
CLOSING TIME
There is a big gap in the doubles race after Siniakova-Townsend and Andreeva-Shnaider in the top two spots. Hsieh-Ostapenko are in third, but trail the Russians by about 720 points. Pairs like Dabrowski-Routliffe and Errani-Paolini are hanging around in the bottom portion of the top eight, so if either can put together a finals run this week, it’s a big points gain for either that could put them into the top four. This is an interesting time for Andreeva-Shnaider who have up until now, been unseeded in all tournaments played. Does that make life tougher for them? I don’t know if it’s necessarily the seed, but they certainly were inserted into a challenging part of the draw that will require several quality wins most likely just to get to a quarterfinal!
Dabrowski-Routliffe may be able to turn their easier draw into a semifinal berth, but I’m not so sure that they’ll get past whoever advances through the second quarter. In the bottom half of the draw, I really get the feeling that an unseeded pair will weave their way into the final. Hunter-Perez stand out to me, but Alexandrova-Stearns and Kudermetova-Mertens also look lively. I’m still keeping my eyes on Errani-Paolini, but I just can’t back them in good faith right now to put it together, until they actually put it together.
PIG PIX
Hunter-Perez
Hsieh-Ostapenko
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