STUTTGART NEWS & NOTES
*Chan-Kudermetova are back to defend their 2024 titles. They won the titles last year as an unseeded pair as massive 1.32 (-313) favorites in the championship match against Eikeri-Neel. It marked the third time in the last five runs in Germany that an unseeded pair took the titles. The super tie break finish was the first needed since 2021.
*Seeds struggled in 2024 with three of the four seeds going out in their openers. The most significant underdog hit of the two in that group was 5.44 (+444) with top seeds Krawczyk-Schuurs losing to locals Schunk-Siedel. The other dog hit was modest at 2.23 (+123). 2021 was the last time prior to 2024 that multiple seeds lost in round one.
*As for the entire tournament, underdogs scored five wins out of the 13 completed matches. The first round was home to four of those victories. The other hit came in the quarterfinals when Eikeri-Neel won as slight dogs 2.03 (+103) over Potapova-Zvonareva. In 2023, there were just four underdog wins and just two in 2022. The last time there were as many as five u-dog victories was 2021.
*Super tie break fans loved Stuttgart last year with seven of the 13 matches going the extra frame to find a winner. Round one boasted five of those seven STB matches. The seven last year matched the number in 2023 with all seven of those super tie break finishes coming in round one. That trend was nice after 2021 and 2022 combined saw just six super tie break finishes with only two in the opening round.
*Is this the week that Chan-Kudermetova find their mojo? They haven’t come close to the success they saw in 2024 with a 4-4 mark since they started pairing again in February. They’ve only won back-to-back matches at one of the five tournaments they enterted. They truly didn’t hit their stride last year until the grass court swing, so it’s still a big question mark this week as to whether or not they have enough to try and defend their titles.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
With two unseeded champions in the last four years in Stuttgart, it pays to look at the unseeded field this week for potential dark horse contenders.
Ostapenko-Yastremska
At this point, Ostapenko may be the “must have” partner in women’s doubles. She’s gone 18-7 in doubles this season and won tournaments with two different partners along with making two more finals with a third partner. Yastremska will be her fifth partner in 2025. The Ukrainian doesn’t play doubles much (one match this year), but these two do have history. They paired in 2019 and 2021 to the tune of 5-2 with a trip to the Beijing final in 2019 as their standout result. Being in the top half of the draw with Dabrowski-Routliffe and Chan-Kudermetova who have both struggled for consistency gives this pair a chance.
Krawczyk-Pegula/Melichar Martinez-Samsonova
The two Americans pair up for the first time since they made the San Diego final last year in March. That showed that no matter how long the layoff, it had been four years since they last teamed up, there is good chemistry. Their first round opponents, Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova, could be just as dangerous. They’ve paired once and it was a title run in Seoul last Fall. The question will be which of these two is better suited to clay? Either way, the survivor of their first round clash could well be on their way to at least a semifinal berth in that quarter.
Alexandrova-Zhang
They were on my list in Charleston, but lost to the buzzsaw tandem of Ostapenko-Routliffe in their second match that week. I’ve got them back on the list though as I do believe they have the it factor to make a run. Kato-Sutjiadi are no slouches in round one, so they’ll have to be ready to rock or face an early exit. It may be asking a lot for them to make a run with Errani-Paolini in their path if they survive, but the Italians haven’t quite been clicking of late, although clay may be the elixir they need.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
(1)Dabrowski-Routliffe
It’s hard to believe they haven’t played a single match on clay amongst their 89 career matches together. Routliffe may bring some needed confidence to this pairing after winning Charleston with Ostapenko. The top seeds are just 5-5 in 2025 with opening losses in three of their last four tournaments. Even though their potential openers in the quarters have less experience, I’m going to be watching with interest to see if these two can get on track after a slump in the post-Australia landscape.
(2)Errani-Paolini
The Italians are 6-3 in limited doubles exposure this year, but four of those wins came during their Doha title run. Since then, they’re only 1-2. Off the bye in Stuttgart, they’ll see either Alexandrova-Zhang or Kato-Sutjiadi. Both could be tough outs. Clay SHOULD sort the Italians out eventually after they went 15-3 on the surface in 2024, but do recall that they lost back-to-back openers in Charleston and Madrid before they got on their roll in Rome.
(3)Chan-Kudermetova
The defending champs remain an enigma to me. I think we’re waiting for some of that magic from 2024 to rub off on 2025, but it has not happened yet. They did look better in Charleston, but lost a tough super tie break to Shnaider-Stearns (11-9) in the quarterfinals. They have lost twice in their openers out of five tournaments played so far this year. Babos-Stefani are up first this week.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
This is a big week for (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe who lead this first quarter. I talked earlier about their struggles since Australia, so getting a win is the first priority. Perhaps time apart will have helped refresh this pair a bit. They wait for Kichenok-Xu or Panova-Stollar. The Panova-Stollar pairing we’ve seen in 2025 with a 3-3 record. Kichenok and Xu are teaming up for the first time. Both have scuffled a bit this year with Nadiya going 7-9 and Xu at 9-9 this year. Both had some decent results on clay last year, so if they do have a connection, they’re certainly capable of being a pest in this quarter. I think it’s difficult to predict a sure fire semifinalist because of all that uncertainty. You feel like Dabrowski-Routliffe will figure it out again, but is clay the right surface?
The second quarter features last year’s champions, (3)Chan-Kudermetova. They could face a battle right away with Babos-Stefani in round one. Babos-Stefani had that instant connection in Linz this year when they won the tournament in their first time pairing together. After more than a month apart, they reappeared together in Miami, but did not have that same magic as they lost their second match 6-3, 6-1 to Mertens-Zhang. Babos in particular had a great year in 2024 on clay with three finals made on clay, including a title in Rouen with Khromacheva. Stefani has had better results on hard courts, so it’s tough to say if they’ll have a real shot in round one or not.
A lot of eyes will be on the match opposite of that one with Ostapenko-Yastremska taking on Germans Schunk-Seidel. The young Germans crafted the upset of defending champs Krawczyk-Schuurs here a year ago, so they can be dangerous. It’s still hard to go against Ostapenko and anyone in doubles right now. She is close to being in “plug and play” territory as she’s showing a great willingness to team with any one, any time. This quarter looks pretty wide open overall.
I definitely don’t see a huge favorite in this half. Both seeds have questions and there are some danger duos lying in the weeds in the unseeded field. Clay is where Chan-Kudermetova did some decent work on clay last year, but never really beat anything close to a top tier team. The jury is still out on them for me. And as much as I like Dabrowski-Routliffe, they really have to prove it on the court with wins again. I’d much rather stick with a red hot Ostapenko and believe that she’ll once again be in the title mix with a different partner.
My Favorite: Ostapenko-Yastremska
My Sleeper: Kichenok-Xu
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter looks like BANGER central to me. Muhammad-Schuurs are the seeds. Schuurs has a nice history in Stuttgart, having won the titles twice with Krawczyk in 2022 and 2023. They have been a bit of a roller coaster though with only two tournaments out of seven played seeing them win consecutive matches. Their unexpected Indian Wells title run showed their promise, but then almost predictably, they crashed out in their opener in Miami the next week. I think they should get through round one with Eikeri-Niculescu, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a super tie break needed. The other match is a definite BANGER ALERT with Krawczyk-Pegula squaring off with Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova. Both have experience together and both have title winning experience together. I’m siding with Krawczyk-Pegula in that one. Krawczyk comes in after making the Charleston final with Dolehide and then winning a Billie Jean King Cup match with Muhammad. Pegula has only played five (2-3) doubles matches this year, but did show well in Charleston by winning the title in singles. That clay may play different than Stuttgart, but they at least have the winning touch of late. Melichar-Martinez/Samsonova do not, but that of course doesn’t mean they’re not going to be competitive with a chance to win. I tend to think the survivor of this one will have a real shot to go deeper in the tournament.
The final quarter houses (2)Errani-Paolini as the favorites. Despite some recent struggles, I do think that is a fair label for them with the calendar firmly entrenched in the clay court season. As I said earlier however, the Italians took a minute to hit their stride on this surface last year. Does that mean there’s some upset potential in this quarter? You’re damn right. Alexandrova-Zhang may be my preferred choice over Kato-Sutjiadi, but either way, Errani-Paolini need to rev their game up off a first round bye. Kato-Sutjiadi have done some good stuff on clay with a 13-9 mark in their careers together. That includes some experience in Stuttgart a few years ago. I’m expecting a good one versus Alexandrova-Zhang in round one and would give the winner at least a set off Errani-Paolini in the next round. I’m still going with the Italians to get it done in the end, but I would not be that shocked if they lost their opener. That would put an unseeded pair into the semifinals.
I think there is plenty of intrigue in this bottom half as well with neither seed arriving with an air of certainty. I did say as the calendar flipped to clay a few weeks ago that I thought that Errani-Paolini could be one of the main beneficiaries of the surface switch. That said, is it too soon to think they’re going to find a groove right away? Certainly if you look at what they did last year, you’d simply say sign me up to back the Italians. They’re in the mix for me this week, but I definitely think this bottom half could see an unseeded runner or two.
My Favorite: (2)Errani-Paolini
My Sleeper: Krawczyk-Pegula
CLOSING TIME
So here we are with the meat and potatoes of the Euro clay court swing upon us. Stuttgart has the stronger field than Rouen, so more eyes will be focused in Germany. That said, Muhammad-Schuurs and Errani-Paolini are the only two pairs that head in ranked inside the top eight. It’s a big chance for both of them to firm up their place in the standings, while the top seeds, Dabrowski-Routliffe, could ignite their season with a deep run. It’s hard to like them at the moment, but one of these weeks, they are going to put it together and there likely won’t be any more concerns about them. I’m not sure that’s this week on clay. I’ll stick with my projection that Errani-Paolini are going to get hot on clay and have them in my Pig Pix for the week. I do think an unseeded pair or even two have the potential to crash the finals party. The Ostapenko-Yastremska pairing and Krawczyk-Pegula are the two I can’t wait to see.
PIG PIX
Errani-Paolini
Ostapenko-Yastremska
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 