MONTE-CARLO NEWS & NOTES
*There again won’t be a repeat champion in Monte-Carlo with last year’s winners, Gille-Vliegen, no longer pairing up. There hasn’t been a repeat champ at this event since 2014-15 when the Bryan Brothers did the trick for the 2nd time (2011-12). Gille-Vliegen were not seed last year, becoming the 1st unseeded pair since Bopanna-Cuevas in 2017 to become Monte-Carlo Masters champs. The Belgians were slight favorites at 1.82 (-122) over another unseeded duo, Melo-Zverev in the final. That was the first all-unseeded final since 1994!
*The super tie break finish was the fifth straight in Monte-Carlo. Overall in 2024, there were just six STBs out of the 27 matches played. That broke a string of double digit matches needing the super tie break finish that dated back to 2018. The high in that stretch was 14 STB finishes in 2021. Looking back between 2021-2023, there was an average of six STBs in round one. The semifinals have also been consistent with at least one of the two needing a super tie break each year since 2021.
*Underdogs were plentiful in 2024 with an even dozen striking for wins. The largest came in the semifinals at 3.01 (+201) when Gille-Vliegen took down (3)Granollers-Zeballos. Both rounds one and two had four dogs winning in each round. Not surpisingly, five of those involved a seed getting beat. The majority of those (4) came in round two. There have been at least eight dog wins each run since 2019. Keep an eye on the semifinals. Three of the last four years have featured a dog biting at 3.00 (+200) or better in that round. Six of the last eight semifinals in Monte-Carlo have been UNDERDOG WINS.
*Only one of the four seeds without first round byes dropped their opener last year. It was round two as mentioned where seeds began to fall. Five lost in that round with three of them being top four seeds playing off the bye in round one. In 2023, three seeds lost their openers with just two losing in both 2022 and 2021. The one constant has been a top four seed dropping out early. At least one top four seed has lost each run in Monte-Carlo dating back to 2018.
*The seeded field in 2025 will feature familiar duos to doubles enthusiasts. Perhaps the biggest return for me is seeing Krawietz-Puetz back together. This is their first tournament played together since Dubai. The Germans have made the semifinals and quarterfinals in their two trips to Monte-Carlo. Arevalo-Pavic lead the charge as the top seeds, fresh off completion of the Sunshine Double by winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back. They made the semifinals here a year ago as part of their rise to Grand Slam champions in Paris. Arevalo-Pavic went 19-4 on clay in 2024. They start the week just 300 points behind Heliovaara-Patten for the top spot in the race.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
Last year’s all-unseeded final may have been an outlier in Monte-Carlo history, but unseeded pairs going deep in the draw has not been. The last two seasons have seen six of the eight semifinal spots going to unseeded duos. There has been an unseeded finalist in four of the last five runs at this stop. Let’s look at the pairs that could join that parade in 2025.
Melo-Zverev
Last year’s runners-up do not need an introduction to doubles fans with this pair now having played 32 career matches. Clay is the one surface where they’ve been above .500 at 8-6 overall. This has been their best stop on clay with a quarterfinal in 2022 and last year’s final sitting around a first round loss in 2023. A quarterfinal on hard courts in Cincinnati is their next best result. Being in the quarter where (7)Cash-Glasspool have yet to play a clay court match together and (4)Krawietz-Puetz will be looking to shake off some rust, it’s boom or bust for this pair.
Korda-Thompson
It’s another week seeing these two in the draw and that’s a good thing. They’ve gone 6-1 this year with a finals trip at Indian Wells followed by a quarterfinal withdrawal in Miami. They burst onto the scene on clay last year with the shock title run in Madrid. The conditions won’t suit them as well as those in Spain, but this is a dangerous duo with good chemistry. They could be a tough task for Granollers-Zeballos in round two.
Khachanov-Rublev
Another “singles pair” that figures to be a challenge early. The Russians go after (5)Mektic-Venus in round one. They’ve made it out of round one in three of the four trips they’ve made to Monte-Carlo. They have lost their last three, but all were in super tie breaks. Outside of a surprise Madrid finals run in 2023, they haven’t done a ton on clay, but they have proven to be a tough out.
Ebden-Peers
The Aussies have been victims of tough draw placement since reforming for the Sunshine Double. They got a red hot Harrison-King in round two in Indian Wells and Arevalo-Pavic last time in Miami. Both times they lost, but both times they took those pairs to super tie breaks. They have Salisbury-Skupski first and then Heliovaara-Patten if they survive. That’s difficult, but is anyone going to underestimate the guys who won the gold medal last year on clay?
ONE AND DONE WATCH
(2)Heliovaara-Patten
The Australian Open champs have not dropped an opener since the first week of the season in Brisbane. They have needed a super tie break in three of their six openers since then, so it’s far from easy pickings for them early. Seeing Salisbury-Skupski or Ebden-Peers is going to be a harsh reality to start their clay court season. They’ve split two matches with the Brits this year and have yet to meet the Aussies. I’d think they’d rather see the Brits again after beating them easily in Dubai after losing previously to them in Doha in a super tie break. They may have figured them out.
(4)Krawietz-Puetz
The Germans are plenty good on this surface (26-11), but will there be some rust with neither playing a match since their loss in Dubai at the end of February. Getting Murray-Ram or Nys/Roger-Vasselin first could be a challenge as a result. They may survive, but I would not be surprised if they at least needed a super tie break to get through.
(6)Mektic-Venus
They found their best run last time in Miami with a semifinal finish. That was their first semifinal since winning Auckland to start off 2025. Three of those four wins in Miami took a super tie break, so they’re still playing with tiny, tiny margins. Going against a seasoned pair in Khachanov-Rublev in round one is not an ideal draw. The Russians will make life tough and certainly could pull off the minor upset.
(7)Cash-Glasspool
The Brits have been one of those under-the-radar risers to start 2025, They sit at #4 in the race thanks to a scintillating hard court swing that saw them go 17-5. The question now however is will that success translate to other surfaces? Getting a quality pair in Melo-Zverev who had the big run in 2024 is a massive test to open.
DRAW PREVIEW
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TOP HALF
The first quarter is an interesting one to me as it looks like the seeds, Arevalo-Pavic and Gonzalez-Molteni should be the best of the bunch. There are some potential speed bumps though, so I’m not sure you can set that quarterfinal in stone. Arevalo-Pavic should have the better route. It could be Doumbia-Reboul in round two. The French pair split matches with the top seeds in 2024, losing at Wimbledon before getting revenge on home soil in Paris indoors late in the year. Doumbia-Reboul have been pretty reliable on clay in their careers, but most of their best results have come at 250s.
In the Gonzalez-Molteni half, it’s Gille-Zielinski for them first. Now I did not put that in the upset watch list simply because Gille-Zielinski have struggled with consistency outside of the indoor swing. The Argentinian seeds have not been past the round of 16 in Monte-Carlo, but have a draw better suited to them perhaps erasing that history. They did stumble a little in the South American clay swing early (5-3), but finished by making the Santiago final. Two quarterfinals in Indian Wells and Miami say they could be ready to hit their stride on their best surface. Do keep an eye on the winner of that de Minaur-Struff/Bhambri-Popyrin round one affair. Bhambri-Popyrin had the great run to the titles in Dubai, but I’m not sure if clay suits them quite as well to making one of those surprise runs again. They could still be tough and both de Minaur and Struff are competent doubles players.
In the other quarter in this half, it’s (4)Krawietz-Puetz and (7)Cash-Glasspool as the seeds. I already expressed my mini concerns regarding the fourth seeds and their potential rust. There’s also the matter of facing veterans in either Murray-Ram or Nys-ERV for their opener. The French pair could be the bigger danger after a nice finals run in Bucharest, while Murray and Ram are pairing for the first time. It looks more bleak for Cash-Glasspool who have 2024 runners-up Melo-Zverev first and then would see either the Tsitsipas brothers or Harrison-King in round two. Harrison-King will be an interesting watch this week. After mowing down opponents on hard courts (13-3), they lost their clay debut in Houston to Seggerman-Trhac. This is huge for them if they can get wins since they have nothing but points to gain at these bigger tournaments.
I see this quarter going one or two ways; either Krawietz-Puetz arrive and get back on track right away in this big spot or one of the unseeded pairs comes through. No offense to my guys Cash-Glasspool, but I think it might take them a bit to get the results on clay that they’ve been seeing on hard courts.
You have to have guts or a ton of stupidity to go against Arevalo-Pavic on a ten match win streak and transitioning to a surface that really pushed them forward in 2024. The tough part of the draw will start in the quarters if they get Gonzalez-Molteni for the second straight tournament. The Argentinians narrowly lost 4-6, 7-5, 10-8 to them in Miami and do own a win last year against them on clay in Barcelona. I tend to think if that match goes down, it could be the one that decides who will get the finals spot in the top half. Melo-Zverev or perhaps Harrison-King if they find an early W on clay could be the unseeded pairs to monitor for a potential stolen semifinal spot.
My Favorite: (1)Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: (8)Gonzalez-Molteni
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter features two powerhouses in (3)Bolelli-Vavassori and (5)Granollers-Zebalos. The third seeded Italians have been sluggish of late however with losses in four of their last six. Getting back on clay where they made the French Open final last year is nothing but a good thing I believe. I tend to think that they’ll get back on track sooner rather than later with the clay court season kicking off. I am intrigued by a team they could see to start in Rohan Bopanna and Ben Shelton. Bopanna has had a tough time finding wins on his partner swapping tour. He’s 1-6. Shelton is 0-3 this year in doubles with three different partners. I like the dynamic of this pairing though, even if it’s a first time team. You’ve got the crafty vet and the electric young guy. Sounds like Bopanna-Shapalov, a duo that had some really nice runs a few years back. If they can escape round one, they could be tricky.
As for Granollers-Zeballos, they’ve found their form with a trip to Sunday’s final in Bucharest. They had strumbled with opening round losses in both Indian Wells and Miami. I think regardless of the outcome of their Bucharest final, they arrive with better confidence and a draw that is workable. They do need to be careful in round one against Arneodo-Guinard. I don’t have them on the upset list, but this duo made the semifinals in Marrakech and also have an indoor Challenger final to their credit this year. They could be more difficult than expected. The all singles matchup featuring Korda-Thompson against Draper-Machac should attract all those eyes that people say singles players bring to doubles, right? I do think it will be a fun match. Draper-Machac got a little experience together In Indian Wells. If we get Bolleli-Vavassori against Granollers-Zeballos in the end, remember they split four matches a year ago. The Italians won both matches on clay.
The final quarter could be rough for the seeds. Heliovaara-Patten and Mektic-Venus fit those roles and both will be up against it to start. The two seeds, Heliovaara-Patten, wait to see Skupski-Salisbury or Ebden-Peers. As I stated earlier, they may prefer the Brits even if it’s the third time they’ll have met in 2025. Ebden-Peers for me pose the bigger threat right now. Mektic-Venus will have all they can handle with Khachanov-Rublev to open. Could it be another singles pair if they advance? Humbert-Musetti would be that team, but they will be in for a battle against Rinderknech and Vacherot, who is from Monaco. They played here last year and gave Bolelli-Vavassori a tight opener in a tie break before fading in the second set. For me, it’s the bottom part of the quarter that breeds the semifinal berth. That’s either Heliovaara-Patten or Ebden-Peers in my opinion. I keep touting Ebden-Peers as a threat, perhaps this is the week they truly show it with a run.
I can see three of the four seeds bidding for the semifinals here with Mektic-Venus as the ones I am leaving out of the mix. That said, they all do have questions upon arrival. That could leave the door open for an Ebden-Peers or Korda-Thompson to sneak through. Heliovaara-Patten are obviously still the strongest of the seeds with semifinals or finals in five of seven tournaments played. So even with Ebden-Peers perhaps directly in their path, they’re the ones to beat. Granollers-Zeballos have to prove they’ve got it against the top teams again and Bolelli-Vavassori just need to get wins consistently again.
My Favorite: (2)Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Ebden-Peers
CLOSING TIME
This shapes up to be a fascinating start to the clay court season for many of these teams. It’s a massive tournament for points and certainly a chance for someone to make a statement on clay. Are Arevalo-Pavic the guys to beat? Damn right they are with that ten match win streak. Some teams I might worry about more on the transition of surfaces, but you’re talking about an in-form team on hard courts going over to a surface that was their best in their initial year together in 2024. They’re on my list even if the top seeds haven’t won the titles in Monte-Carlo since 2022. For some reason, I really think either Bolleli-Vavassori or Granollers-Zeballos is going to emerge on the bottom as the best seeded pair at least.
Granollers-Zeballos have “seen the ball go in the basket” on this surface now and perhaps are primed to continue their hot form. Ebden-Peers remain might outsiders pick again this time around as the unseeded pair that could make big waves.
PIG PIX
Arevalo-Pavic
Ebden-Peers
Granollers-Zeballos
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 