MIAMI NEWS & NOTES
*Bopanna-Ebden ended a two-year streak of unseeded champions in Miami when they took the titles in 2024. They became the first top seeds to win since the Bryans in 2015. Bopanna-Ebden were 1.70 (-143) when they defeated (2)Dodig-Krajicek 6-7(3), 6-3, 10-6. That was the first super tie break in a Miami final since 2018.
*2014 was a stark contrast to the previous years with four seeds making the semifinals and the 1-2 matchup in the finale. Prior to that, only one of the last eight semifinalists were seeded. 2021 was the last time with multiple seeded semifinalists with three out of the four spots going that way. Overall, ten of the last eleven finals have seen an unseeded team in the mix with two of the last three champions being unseeded pairs.
*Super tie breaks were needed to settle eleven matches in 2024. Five of the final seven matches from the quarterfinals to the finals finished with the extra frame. The majority of the remaining STBs came in round one with five of the 16 matches going that direction. 2023 also saw eleven super tie break finishes, while 2021 and 2022 both hit with only nine STBs. There hasn’t been a tried and true formula to hunting down STBs in Miami, but the last two years have seen ten STB finishes in the quarters, semis and finals combined. That may be the place to look versus early on in the tournament.
*Underdog hits were sparse in 2024 with only six of the 31 completed matches going to the dogs. The biggest hit came in round two at 5.03 (+403) when Smith-Verbeek took out (8)Koolhof-Mektic. All but one of the dog hits came in rounds one and two. 2023 wasn’t much better for the dog hunters with only seven scores. Once more though, the biggest hit came in round two at 4.45 (+345). That came at the expense of (2)Ram-Salisbury who lost to Paul-Shelton.
*Monitor round one to see how many seeds survive as you may choose to look to round two for that big dog score. Last year, only two seeds were dropped in round one. Five went one and done in 2023 and four more were out in round one in 2022. It’s a pretty good bet that multiple seeds will fall early with at least two seeds out in the opening round each year dating back to 2015.
*Coming into the week, the rankings race is heating up after Arevalo-Pavic’s big victory at Indian Wells. That propelled them up to the 3rd spot in the rankings, just a few hundred points back of Bolelli-Vavassori. Heliovaara-Patten still hold the top spot with a 620 point lead on the Italians. Surprising Americans Harrison-King hold the 4th spot just head of Cash-Glasspool. After that, it’s a more sizeable gap back to Krawietz-Puetz who are 465 points back and not in the field this year in Miami. There is plenty of wiggle room at the back of end of the top eight for a team to make some moves at this Masters 1000.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
Despite last year’s relative lack of big results for the non-seeded teams, Miami has shown big for the unseeded pairs in general the last few years. Here’s a look at some teams to take a look at this week as potential dark horse contenders for a final.
Ebden-Peers
The Aussies pair for a second straight tournament. They knocked out Bolelli-Vavassori last week in Indian Wells and narrowly lost to Harrison-King (11-9 STB) in round two. They’re set up to potentially play the top seeds Arevalo-Pavic in round two and that could be an absolute BANGER. That definitely makes them a potential dark horse in the top half of the draw if they can pull off another huge upset.
Harrison-King
Despite being fourth in the race, the Americans still haven’t moved up enough to be seeded at big tournaments like Miami. That leaves them as one of the more dangerous unseeded duos in any field. They’re 17-4 on the season and proved their mettle last week with wins over Ebden-Peers and Gonzalez-Molteni. I still don’t know that they’re going to pick up wins consistently over the top tier teams as we saw them easily beaten by Arevalo-Pavic in the semifinals last week. Still, they’ve got confidence and certainly can beat some struggling teams in their quarter to earn another massive semifinal berth.
Hurkacz-Puetz
Color me interested in seeing if these two can develop some chemistry to make a run. Puetz could find it refreshing in the short term to pair up with different partners with Krawietz out injured. The Germans had struggled since Australia, going only 2-3 in three tournaments since the Australian Open. Hurkacz has pared down his doubles play the last few seasons, but he usually helps make life tough on whomever his opponents are early in tournaments. They face Doumbia-Reboul to open with the French mostly consistent, but still having dropped their openers in three of their last six tournaments. An early win boosts their profile as a danger duo this week.
Korda-Thompson
There’s no reason to remove them from the list after they made the Indian Wells final. There’s an obvious chemistry here with a 9-2 record over three tournaments. That includes winning a Masters title and finishing runners-up last week. They are in a bit tougher part of the draw this week with Heliovaara-Patten and perhaps a rematch with Salisbury-Skupski on tap. They edged the Brits 11-9 in a super tie break finish in round two. Having to play the same team twice in two weeks is never fun for anyone.
Krajicek-Ram
7-7 with four straight losses on the ATP Tour, yet, here I keep them in the list of potential danger duos. They did flip to the Phoenix Challenger after losing their opener in Indian Wells and racked up some wins finally as they made the final. Perhaps that will aid their cause in Miami. It’s boom or bust certainly with (2)Heliovaara-Patten up first. The two seeds still haven’t lost an opener since the first tournament of the year, but fell to Bhambri-Goransson in round two last week. Perhaps that signals there is a shot for the Americans to get on a roll with the early seeded scalp.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
(2)Heliovaara-Patten
Read above. Heliovaara-Patten have been about as steady as any team in avoiding early trouble, but a tough draw puts them on the list this week. Krajicek-Ram just seem like they might be due for a breakout, but will they get it done here?
(3)Bolelli-Vavassori
Perhaps the Italians can break out of their funk against a team in a deeper funk. They face Behar-Galloway to start and that pair has lost five of their last six. The Italians have lost three of their last four, including two opening round losses. They had a rough draw in their Miami debut last year against Bopanna-Ebden that led to a loss. This year is better, but Behar-Galloway in spite of the run of losses have been competitive still with three of their most recent losses coming in super tie breaks.
(5)Mektic-Venus
It’s three straight losses coming in for this pair. They’ve also dropped their openers in three of their last five tournaments. McDonald-Tien are the first-time pairing they will face, which should help. Still, McDonald has become a pretty competent doubles play with last year’s Cincinnati finals run alongside Alex Michelsen sticking out. Tien has only played a handful of doubles matches this year and most of his best work came at the Futures level. I still think given the struggles of Mektic-Venus, this one should be competitive and provides some upset potential.
(7)Gonzalez-Molteni
This is more of a gut call than a statistical dissection. Erler-Frantzen provide the competition in round one and they’ve been a bit up and down at 5-5 in limited time together in 2025. Still, the 7th seeded Argentinians have been just a .500 proposition on outdoor hard courts over the last two seasons. At 12-12, 15 of those matches have gone to super tie breaks or a deciding set since the start of 2024. They’re 3-1 so far this year in those settings, but any time it goes the distance, it’s really a 50-50 proposition.
DRAW PREVIEW
Click HERE for the men’s doubles draw
TOP HALF
The first quarter is led by Arevalo-Pavic. The Indian Wells title run may have been just what the doctor ordered. They had been solid, yet had not made a final until last week. It’s not a simple proposition for them in Miami, where they lost in round two last year to Granolers-Zeballos. Matos-Melo are their openers and they can be tough at times, although their best work has come on clay. If they survive, they’re likely to see Ebden-Peers in round two. Even tougher. The bottom half may be just as open with Gonzalez-Molteni as the seeds. The Argentinians made the quarters here in 2023, but dropped their opener in 2024. Perhaps the one thing you can count in is a super tie break. All four of their career matches in Miami have gone that way. If they move past Erler-Frantzen, keep an eye on Gonzalez-Tabilo. They’re pairing for the first time, but seem to have a winnable match against Gille-Zielinski in round one. Gille-Zielinski are 3-5 on outdoor hard courts with opening round losses in three of five tournaments played on the surface. I’m favoring whoever escapes the top half of this quarter to get that semifinal berth. Arevalo-Pavic may have a tougher time this week after facing FOUR singles pairs en route to that Indian Wells title. Ebden-Peers could prove to be spoilers.
The second quarter pits (3)Bolelli-Vavassori in one half and (5)Mektic-Venus in the other. Both seeds arrive in the middle of a bit of a struggle. For the third seeded Italians, Behar-Galloway may not be easy to put away in round one. I do believe given their struggles to win of late though that Bolelli-Vavassori should be break out victorious. Round two likely means a battle with Harrison-King who face wild cards Sakamoto-Wong. I don’t see them getting bit early, so the Americans should give themselves another crack at an upper echelon pair this week. In the bottom half, it looks wide open with Mektic-Venus stumbling along and facing McDonald-Tien to start. I do think that one will be tough given that the 5th seeds still have a propensity for letting teams stick around. The survivor gets the winner between Hurkacz-Puetz and Doumbia-Reboul. Doumbia-Reboul are 10-6 on hard courts this year, so they’ve been steady. Still, there are no marquee wins against the better teams on tour. I do think Hurkacz-Puetz can get the job done here if they mesh well. For me, they’re sleepers for a quarterfinal spot.
Does an unseeded pair steal a semifinal spot in this half? I think there is a chance. Remember that Arevalo-Pavic were struggling a bit in that Doha-Dubai swing before Indian Wells. I want to see them against the “specialists” this week before I buy into them truly being on a roll. They’ll prove that point if they make a run this week for sure. I still think Ebden-Peers could steal that spot from quarter one. Before Bolelli-Vavassori’s recent struggles, I’d have penciled them in for the semis with this draw. I still think they have a better shot this week with Harrison-King still needing to get a signature win against one of the top trio of doubles regulars to cement their names as true contenders (for me). Do keep an eye on Harrison-King per usual because if they get that W, then all bets are off and they’re contenders for the crown this week. Hurkacz-Puetz I still label as super sleepers if they can escape round one of course.
My Favorite: Bolelli-Vavassori
My Sleeper: Ebden-Peers
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter is led by (4)Granollers-Zeballos. Last year’s semifinalists got some much needed reps and wins by dipping down to the Phoenix Challenger. After a rusty start in Indian Wells, their first match of 2025 together, they put it all together with a title run in Phoenix. That included wins over Erler-Frantzen, Doumbia-Reboul and Krajicek-Ram. They’re in a good section of the draw here with Murray-Pavlasek as beatable foes in round one. Bopanna-Dodig or Bhambri-Borges would be waiting in round two. Plenty of good doubles guys here, but none that have the pedigree of the seeds. Bopanna-Dodig have lost four of their last five matches together since hooking back up on occasion in 2024. In the other half, Cash-Glasspool are looking to rebound. Since winning Doha, they’ve gone 2-2 in a pair of tournaments. Cash-Tracy could be a tricky opener, but they’ve generally had trouble winning at the ATP level so far in limited appearances after their big run in Newport last year. Flip a coin for who they might play in round two with Martinez-Mpetshi Perricard or Goransson-Verbeek. The singles pair of Martinez-MP nearly upset Salisbury-Skupski in Indian Wells. Goransson-Verbeek have not been able to match their outstanding Australian Open run, going 3-5 outside of that semifinal berth. I wouldn’t sleep on either pair however in round two. They can definitely spring an upset.
The final quarter houses Heliovaara-Patten and Salisbury-Skupski as the seeds. Heliovaara-Patten could be one and done with Krajicek-Ram waiting in round one. They’ve been great at avoiding early trouble however, so the Americans will need to play well if they’re going to push for the win. If Krajicek-Ram advance, it could be a repeat of their Phoenix Challenger quarterfinal against Vliegen-Withrow. Those two pair up for the third straight tournament, so perhaps the reps keep them going and give them a chance. They face the first time duo of Jebens-Olivetti in round one. As for Salisbury-Skupski, they seem to be rounding into better form of late. While the Doha final is easily their best run, they’ve been better competitively in my eyes. They should get past Andreozzi-Arribage and that could set up a rematch against Korda-Thompson. The singles pair took them down last week in a super tie break in the same round at Indian Wells. Give me the seeds in that revenge spot. If seeds hold, the Brits get another shot at Heliovaara-Patten who they beat in a super tie break during their Doha run. Sign me up to run that one back.
With Korda-Thompson and Krajicek-Ram in this half, there is a chance we could see an unseeded pair sneak into the semifinal or finals mix. I do tend to think the seeds in this half may be a bit stronger however. Granollers-Zeballos need to keep their form going after Phoenix and this is a great spot to do it. This hasn’t been a consistent stop for them however with opening round losses in two of their four trips. I do like their set up though, so I think they’re in the mix for a spot in the final four. Something has me looking at Salisbury-Skupski this week.
My Favorite: Granollers-Zeballos
My Sleeper: Salisbury-Skupski
CLOSING TIME
I would not be surprised to see an unseeded team in the final this year after the one year hiatus in 2024. I’m still a big Ebden-Peers backer on that and sooner or later, I still feel that Krajicek-Ram are going to put together a big run. Their wins in Phoenix could be a harbinger of success this week, but they’re going to have to really earn it. As for the seeds, I lean to Bolelli-Vavassori and Granollers-Zeballos as my two favorites, but I do think Salisbury-Skupski could be in the running too. It is a big week with 1,000 points up for grabs and we saw what a difference that makes with Arevalo-Pavic coming from nowhere near the top eight, firmly ranked inside the top four.
PIG PIX
Bolelli-Vavassori
Granollers-Zeballos
Salisbury-Skupski
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 