ATP Indian Wells Preview

INDIAN WELLS NEWS & NOTES

*The streak of no repeat champions at Indian Wells continues with 2024 BNP Paribas Open champs Koolhof-Mektic no longer around. 2014 was the last time that IW saw back-to-back champs and you guessed it, it was the Bryans. They are one of just two pairs, Knowles-Nestor being the other, to win consecutive titles in the desert. Koolhof-Mektic won the 2024 title match as 1.77 (-130) favorites over Granollers-Zeballos. Their victory continued a string of unseeded champions at Indian Wells each of the last three years.

*Unseeded pairs have been a menace at this stop as that would suggest. Fourteen of the last 24 semifinal duos at Indian Wells have been unseeded. You have to travel back to 2017 for the last time that the semifinal field didn’t feature at least two unseeded pairs.

*That signals that being a seeded pair is not always a good label at the “Mini Major,” with the top seeds only making it as far as the final once in the last nine runs at Indian Wells. The last time the top seeds won? The Bryans in 2014. That’s also the last time the final featured the one seeds versus the two seeds. Hell, it’s been awhile since it was an all-seeded final with 2017 clocking in with that classification, when (6)Klaasen-Ram beat (8)Kubot-Melo.

*Does that mean seeds are prone to early exits here? 2024 saw three of the eight seeds go one and done in round one. That included the top seeds and defending champs, Bopanna-Ebden. 2023 saw four seeds out in their openers and 2022 also claimed another top seed amongst the three that saw their Indian Wells stay end in the first round.

*If you’re looking for those underdog scores, seeded matchups in round one could be a place to start. Last year’s three seeded losses in the first round saw scores of 4.07 (+307), 3.00 (+200) and one that was unlisted in my data, but definitely clocked in as a dog win with Musetti-Peers knocking off (4)Gonzalez-Skupski. The prices were not as high in 2023 with the four dog wins at 2.40 (+140) or less. 2022 was also lesser with 2.31 (+131) as the biggest round one score.

*Overall, underdogs did not have a great time last year however with only five winning out of the 30 completed matches. That was almost half of the nine that scored wins in 2023. 2022 was the best of the recent bunch with ten underdogs winning, almost a third of the overall results in the desert. Perhaps it is the infusion of singles players into the field at this stop that keeps the prices more even with Indian Wells traditionally housing the most “singles pairs” in any doubles field. Don’t rule out your dog wins, but be mindful that they may not be as prevalent as they are in other weeks.

*Super tie breaks were fairly regular with ten showing up in 2024. Six of those came in round one with the quarterfinals showing a high percentage with two of the three QFs played going the distance. 2023 was a beacon for STBs with a dozen tallied out of 27 completed matches. That was also the first super tie break in the championship match since 2019. The best year for STBs in recent history at Indian Wells was 2021 with a whopping 15 super tie break finishes. Generally, rounds one and two have shown to be the more consistent places to find STBs at the BNP Paribas Open.

*The singles mingle heavily into the doubles draw in the desert each year and 2025 is no different. There are 13 pairs in the field of 32 that are comprised of two singles players. There are a few that we’ve seen more often like Khachanov-Rublev and Melo-Zverev. There are also some with limited experience that catches the eye immediately. Korda-Thompson are number one on that list. The 2024 Madrid champions went 5-1 last year, all on clay. Thompson has since become a Grand Slam doubles champion, winning the US Open with regular partner Max Purcell. Another duo with a small sample size is Draper-Machac. The two young guns played Tokyo last year, scoring a pair of super tie break wins before bailing from the draw in the semifinals. I’ll hit some of the one-off pairings a bit more in the draw preview below.

THE UNSEEDED MENACES

Who are the unseeded pairs who could surprise in 2025? Let’s take a look at the best bets to disrupt the draw.

Draper-Machac
The aforementioned singles pairing is intriguing, especially early on. They’ll battle Bopanna-Dodig first, a veteran duo that has struggled to do much of late with losses in three of their last four matches together. Given the back and forth switcheroo for both Bopanna and Dodig already this year with multiple partners, Draper-Machac should have a real shot to score an early win. They’re also in the section with (1)Arevalo-Pavic who have lost two of their last three. Draper-Machac could be a sneaky quarterfinal pick as long as the bodies hold up from double duty.

Khachanov-Rublev
The Russians are 0-2 at Indian Wells, but they’ve shown very well in limited action in 2025. They made the Hong Kong final to start the season and narrowly lost to Bolelli-Vavassori 5-7, 6-3, 16-14 in Dubai. They have a more winnable round one this year with Giron-Tien, so they should at least be in position to be a danger to a seed in round two. That seed may be Mektic-Venus who haven’t won consecutive matches since Auckland.

Ebden-Peers
An intriguing reunion for the Aussies who claimed the gold medal at last year’s Olympic Games. Peers had found an uptick in results lately with Jamie Murray, with a pair of semifinal runs in their last three tournaments. Ebden has struggled to find the same with new partner Joran Vliegen with the duo saddled with five straight losses. It’s an immediate test of their chemistry with Bolelli-Vavassori on deck first, but the Italians have been a bit more beatable of late. An early win and the Aussies could find themselves in a great spot.

Harrison-King
They got the wild card entry here and that’s well deserved for the American pair who have been rolling up wins in the last month. In case you missed it, Harrison-King have two titles (Acapulco-Dallas) and another final in their last three tournaments. They’re 14-3 on the year. The question I’ve been waiting to find an answer to is how will they fare when they step up in the level of competition? This is the time to find out.

Korda-Thompson
I touched on these two earlier. They’re in a part of the draw where they could theoretically make the quarterfinals. They get another singles pair in Michelson-Shelton to start and have (8)Salisbury-Skupski as the seeds in their way to the last eight. The Brits have been better of late, but still a bit up and down for 2025. This singles pair is one to watch if they can recapture that form that carried them to an unexpected Madrid title run.

Krajicek-Ram
Pig, you crazy? You keep putting these guys on your list and they keep disappointing us. True, but the Americans are far from a hapless duo. Their losses have all been tight and tough, albeit with some to pairs you would think they should beat. That included Machac-Mensik in Acapulco last time out. They’ve only won consecutive matches once and that was way back at the Australian Open. I still believe in these guys and this is the sort of setting where they could get a tremendous crowd boost.

Melo-Zverev
It’s boom or bust for these two who will pair for the first time in 2025, but own a career mark of 15-16 together. Listen, the overall results are not much to inspire confidence, but when you look at their history closely, you see that they are a very tough out … especially in round one settings. Last year, they were 5-0 in round one matches including wins over Krajicek-Ram and Lammons-Withrow. I think they’ll make Heliovaara-Patten work, which might be a given since the current top doubles duo on tour has seen a super tie break in three of their five opening matches. An early win obliterates that part of the draw where anything could be possible moving forward.

ONE AND DONE WATCH

(2)Heliovaara-Patten
Harri and Henry have been remarkably consistent so far this year with a 13-4 record and no opening round losses since their first tournament of 2025 in Brisbane. Still, three of their five first round matches have needed a super tie break and two others featured a tie break set in the mix. Melo-Zverev are a tough draw, so they’ll need to be at their best to advance.

(3)Bolelli-Vavassori
The Italians are 14-3 and made the semifinals here in 2024. They have looked human however in their last two tournaments with a 1-2 record through Doha and Dubai. That included losses to Bopanna-Borges and Haase-Jebens. Getting Ebden-Peers to start could keep them on that tough track. I’m expecting that opener to be a BANGER with some obvious upset potential.

(4)Granollers-Zeballos
FINALLY, the boys are back! Marcel’s pectoral injury derailed their start to 2025 in Australia, so this is their first match together this year. That’s probably not a big deal for a team with their wealth of experience together, but Zeballos has been playing with a different partner prior to this week, so perhaps there’s a slight chance of some rust here. Lehecka-Tabilo are singles guys pairing for the first time, so that SHOULD help. That said, Lehecka made a final with Mensik in Brisbane this year and Tabilo won a title on clay last year with Barrientos and made a surprise final on grass with Hidalgo in Mallorca. These guys know their way on a doubles court, so they could be tricky if they have any chemistry. This is very low on my list of upset potential, but keep in mind that Granollers-Zeballos have lost round one twice in four trips to the desert. They did make the final last year.

(7)Gonzalez-Molteni
The Argentinians finally found their groove on clay in South America with a 5-2 record in their last two tournaments. That said, they still have struggled some with consistency. On hard courts, they’ve gone 1-2 this year and lost in round one here a year ago. Vliegen-Withrow are the foes in round one, a pair that did see action together once at Wimbledon in 2022. Want to know their danger potential? They won round one and took Ebden-Purcell, the eventual champs, to a fifth set in losing in round two.

DRAW PREVIEW

Click HERE to see the draw

TOP HALF

The first quarter has (1)Arevalo-Pavic and (5)Mektic-Venus on opposite ends. The top seeds are 8-5, but have not been to a final in 2025. They come in with two straight losses in super tie breaks, but at least will not be facing a team headlined by Yuki Bhambri this week (IYKYK). Baez-Etcheverry is a good matchup for them to start, but round two could be trouble. It will be the Draper-Machac/Bopanna-Dodig survivor. Color me more excited to see it be Draper-Machac. Bopanna-Dodig are 11-10 together all-time, but just 1-3 over the past season-plus. I think the singles guy would pose a more sizeable risk to an Arevalo-Pavic quarterfinal run.

In the bottom half, Mektic-Venus have Italians Berrettini-Sonego to open. The Italians do have some experience together, but it’s from ages ago before either was really a household name. Berrettini doubles matches are RARE with this being just his third in two years. Sonego has played a bit more and been a tough out at times, but more of that came with Musetti. Mektic-Venus may still be middling along at 6-5, but those losses have come to more competent pairs. They have lost just twice in openers out of six tournaments. The survivor of that one likely gets Khachanov-Rublev who battle Giron-Tien in round one. Experience edge to the Russians and they’ll be a menace in round two. It is certainly possible that both seeds are done before the quarters, but I feel like Arevalo-Pavic have the better draw and better potential to avoid defeat early.

The second quarter sees a BANGER to lead off round one with (3)Bolelli-Vavassori set to battle Ebden-Peers. But that may not be all as far as bangers in this section. Round two for the winner of that one could come against the hottest team on the ATP Tour that too many still don’t know. That’s Christian Harrison and Evan King who have won 14 of 17 matches in 2025. They have Frenchies Fils-Humbert to begin and I do think that match will be competitive. The French pair have played just once together, but their serves alone could keep them in that match. It’s a huge opportunity for Harrison-King to get a crack at some more experienced duos to really test their mettle this tournament. I want to see it. I need to see it. They’re quietly 4th in the doubles race, but haven’t beaten anyone of the quality that a Bolelli-Vavassori or Ebden-Peers would bring.

The bottom half looks WIDE OPEN with Gonzalez-Molteni as the seeds and then a host of dangerous unseeded pairs. Gonzalez-Molteni should be tested early with Vliegen-Withrow as their opening foes. I told you earlier about that pair and their competitive streak in their lone foray as partners back in 2022. Withrow has been forced to pair with a different partner due to Nathaniel Lammons being injured. He hasn’t tasted victory yet and Vliegen comes in with a string of losses with Ebden, so perhaps getting a fresh look at someone new will aid his search for a win. The other match in this section pits Nys-ERV against Doumbia-Reboul for the second time in 2025. Nys-ERV won 7-6, 7-6 in Rotterdam, so expect another tight one. You can toss all four teams’ names into a hat in this one as I really think each has a fairly equal chance of getting the quarterfinal spot on this surface.

This is a big week for the likes or Arevalo-Pavic and Bolelli-Vavassori who stand out in this draw, but both have some questions to answer. If the Italians can find their early season form, they’re easily the pick to come through this half. That however is no given after what we’ve seen from them lately. None of the seeds here are a certainty with plenty of unseeded danger. I have Arevalo-Pavic slightly ahead as my favorite seed, but it’s not by much. Look out for the likes of Ebden-Peers and perhaps that experience from Khachanov-Rublev as the most dangerous unseeded duos for me. The most intriguing watch of the unseeded pairs will be Harrison-King.

My Favorite: (1)Arevalo-Pavic
My Sleeper: Ebden-Peers

BOTTOM HALF

This third quarter is very interesting to me with the return of Granollers-Zeballos being the biggest point of interest. Can they hit the ground running and make a deep run? Sure, they’re veterans and they know how to do it. With Granollers healthy now, there will certainly be plenty of motivation to put things together to ignite their season and jump them up in the rankings. A Masters 1000 is a great place to do just that. Lehecka-Tabilo will be a good litmus test in round one to see where this pair is at after months of not pairing together. I still think the seeds will find their rhythm in this one and pass that test, but it could be tougher than expected. Survival there gets them a date with either Murray-Polasek or Behar-Galloway. That should be winnable as well with Behar-Galloway sufficiently cooled off, having lost four of five. Murray-Polasek have only played a handful of matches with mediocre results together, so Granollers-Zeballos are simply the class of this section IF they find their usual rhythm.

The top of the quarter sees Salisbury-Skupski looking to build on a recent run of better results, with four wins in their last six. They were outclassed by Heliovaara-Patten in a Dubai loss, but had looked much more competitive. They start with Martinez & Mpetshi Perricard. You never know how singles will show when put together for the first time, but these two have seen a bit of success at times in doubles. Martinez most recently made the Rio final alongside Jaume Munar, so weird things can happen. I don’t have Salisbury-Skupski losing, but it’d be far from a “big upset” in my books if they did. The other match in this section sees Korda-Thompson against Michelsen-Shelton. Shelton has played far less doubles in 2025 with just two matches, both losses, to show. Michelsen is 3-3. I definitely don’t think they’re push overs in this spot an Korda-Thompson could well be flash-in-the-pans with Madrid last year being the only thing they’ll do together in doubles. That keeps this quarterfinal berth up-in-the-air for me. The seeded Brits would be the “class” but they’ve been a bit too hit and miss to trust fully. I’d probably favor whichever singles pair survives the round one match.

I won’t pick against Granollers-Zeballos to grab the semifinal spot in this part of the draw. They’re that good and perhaps may have the most motivation of any team after not being able to start the season on-time and bidding to avenge last year’s Indian Wells’ finals loss. For some reason I’m drawn to Michelsen-Shelton as potential dark horses in this section. They could easily have zero chemistry and fall in round one, but I really think they might find something. Salisbury-Skupski keep tempting me, but I need to see their consistency increase before I think they’re capable of making a run.

The last quarter is led by (2)Heliovaara-Patten. The Australian Open champs have been very stable with two finals and two semifinals out of five tournaments played. There are definitely some challenges in this section for them to continue that streak. Melo-Zverev are landmine #1 in round one. And then there are duos like (6)Cash-Glasspool and Krajicek-Ram on the opposite side that could also provide stopping points. Cash-Glasspool as you know where one of my breakout picks for 2025 and they’re living up to that so far. That said, I’d like to see the Brits get a shot at playing a power team like Harri & Henry to see where they stand. A win over Krawietz-Puetz in Rotterdam ranks as their best win of the season and that’s a bit lower on the totem pole now with the Germans scuffling a bit since Australia.

On form, that should be our quarterfinal: Heliovaara-Patten versus Cash-Glasspool. I give Cash-Glasspool a slightly higher chance of making it farther because of their draw. Yes, Krajicek-Ram could be in the way or one of the one-off singles pairs could step up, but that’s still more questions working in their favor. For Heliovaara-Patten, it’s harsh matchup round one. And round two could be equally tough with Cibolli-Musetti or Gille-Zielinski. The Italian singles stars showed last year that they should not be taken likely as they upset Skupski-Venus in Beijing. Gille-Zielinski looked good on the indoor swing with finals in Rotterdam and Marseille, but they have yet to find that same level outdoors. They are 2-3 on outdoor hard courts with two opening round losses. I still like what they bring to the table, but don’t trust them yet to score marquee wins on this surface.

Even with the harsh path, you have to look at Heliovaara-Patten as favorites due to what they have shown in 2025. Granollers-Zeballos are going to be right behind them for me. They did beat Heliovaara-Patten in their lone meeting last year, but that was on clay. I think Cash-Glasspool remain good “outsiders” even though they’re seeded and you can mark me down as the clown who picked Michelsen-Shelton to do something this tournament when they lose in round one.

My Favorite: (4)Granollers-Zeballos
My Sleeper: (6)Cash-Glasspool

CLOSING TIME

The Sunshine Double, Indian Wells and Miami, presents a massive opportunity for teams to begin climbing the table or further separating themselves from the field. Granollers-Zeballos were the best of the bunch last year when they made the IW final and followed up with a semifinal showing at Miami. Krawietz-Puetz also did a bang-up job with semifinals in both. Speaking of which, where are the Germans this week? Their names were not on the entry list, so perhaps it’s a pre-determined decision to skip this tournament. I have seen their names on the Miami entry list.

Anywho, who steps up in the desert? With unseeded pairs having a strong history here, is there one ready to step into the spotlight? You’d be daft to avoid looking at the gold and silver medalists from last year in Ebden-Peers and Krajicek-Ram. Ebden-Peers have to pull off a huge upset to start, but the Aussies have shown they can come together at any time to be threats. Krajicek-Ram are a bit more out there to me despite their obvious pedigree. They just have not been able to find the win column enough in 2025 to make them a viable outsider just yet. I have a hard time going with any “singles pair” to be legitimate threats to the titles simply because of the possibility of teams withdrawing depending on their singles play.

Even with the top seed curse working here, Arevalo-Pavic do have a path for success that may seem a shade easier than Bolelli-Vavassori in their half and Heliovaara-Patten in theirs. As such, welcome to stupid town, population Pig.

PIGPIX

Granollers-Zeballos
Arevalo-Pavic
Ebden-Peers