DOHA NEWS & NOTES
*The top seeded team won the titles in Doha last year. That was the first time that the top seeds had taken the championship match since 2006! Murray-Venus were your winners in 2024 as 1.59 (-169) favorites over unseeded Italians Musetti-Sonego. The Italians were one of three unseeded pairs in the semifinals. 2024 marked the sixth straight run in Doha that an unseeded pair was involved in the final. The last unseeded team to take the titles were Karatsev-Rublev in 2021.
*The last time an underdog won the title match in Doha was 2019, when Goffin-Herbert teamed up for the title win as slight dogs of 2.05 (+105). Dogs barked loudly overall at this stop last year with seven of the 13 completed matches going to the underdog. The largest bites came in round one at 3.39 (+239) and 2.84 (+184). The quarterfinals had two walkover wins, leaving just five matches from the QFs to the final. Three of those last five were underdog wins. There have been at least a half dozen dog scores in three of the last four years of the Qatar Open on the ATP side.
*With the dog wins, you would expect that seeds struggled early in Doha and you would be correct. Last year, three of the four seeded pairs went out in the opening round. Two of the three rated as underdog wins. That looks like an outlier however, with only one seed losing in round one in each of the three previous years. You have to go back to 2019 to see the last time there were multiple seeds dropping out early since 2024. So where do the seeds go down more often? Look at the quarterfinals. Those years that the majority of seeds avoided round one trouble, multiple seeds lost that next match in the quarters.
*Super tie break finishes were prevalent in 2024 with six of the 13 completed matches needing the STB to settle. That was down from eight the previous year, but still marked the second most STBs in Doha since 2021. There hasn’t necessarily been a great trend to follow to find these, but the semifinals and final have showed some consistency. Three of the last five finals have needed a super tie break and at least one semifinal has gone the distance three times in that same span.
*This week marks the return of Australian Open champions Heliovaara-Patten as the second seeds. The other duos in the seeded quartet all played in Rotterdam. Arevalo-Pavic are the top seeds. They’ve been solid with semifinals in two of three tournaments, but have yet to make a final in 2025. Third seeds Krawietz-Puetz split two matches, while Bolelli-Vavassori rebounded from the AO finals loss to win the Rotterdam titles.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
With the history of unseeded pairs making big runs in Doha, it definitely pays to look at the other pairs in this week’s Doha field. I do think the seeds look set up fairly well this week, so it’s a bit harder of a hunt for unseeded pairs who could really do damage. I still think there are a few however and these are my top two.
Cash-Glasspool
If you follow me or read my stuff, you know that I’m smitten by this all-British duo. Their chemistry continues to grow with more experience together. They’ve been hot to start off the new year at 9-3 with a title in Brisbane and nothing short of quarterfinals in the other three tournaments they’ve played. They’re in the Bolelli-Vavassori quarter, but it’s an immediate chance for revenge after a 7-6, 7-6 loss to the Italians in Rotterdam. They’ll be dangerous.
Mektic-Venus
They’ve been a bit hit & miss outside of their Auckland title run, but they’ve been super competitive overall. Getting Krawietz-Puetz to start is tough …. on both pairs. The survivor may however get the inside track to a semifinal spot with the other pairing their quarter featuring Salisbury-Skupski and Ebden-Vliegen. Neither of those pairs have found their groove just yet, making Mektic-Venus as dangerous as anyone in that quarter.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Outside of Heliovaara-Patten, the other seeds have been back in action since Australia. That may mean less upsets. Still, it’s worth looking at the toughest matches early on to see if any seeds could be in trouble.
(2)Heliovaara-Patten
I think you always have to put a team on this list when they haven’t played in a few weeks. The plus for the AO champs are that they take on a first time pairing of Griekspoor-Pavlasek, so chemistry will be a question for them. Heliovaara-Patten’s only worries will be about shaking off any potential rust. When they’ve been in rhythm so far this year, they’ve been the best team on tour. I think this one is less likely than the other I will highlight below, but if Griekspoor-Pavlasek can tune it up on serve, they could keep this one close.
(3)Krawietz-Puetz
This is one based purely on match-up. The Germans have the toughest opponents of all the seeds early on in my opinion. They get Mektic-Venus, who have been battling hard around every turn. In their three losses, they’ve dropped a trio of tie break sets and lost the other in a super tie break. There is definitely a question for me on how they will match against the top tier pairs as they have yet to face one, so this will be a great litmus test for them against the Germans.
Click DRAW PREVIEW above to see the Doha doubles draw
TOP HALF
This first quarter should belong to the top seeds Arevalo-Pavic. They get the experienced duo Murray-Peers to start, but that’s still advantage top seeds. Murray-Peers are 3-4 in 2025 and that’s without facing any of the regular top notch pairs featured in the seeded field. The match opposite of that features Bhambri-Dodig against wild cards Merida Aguilar-Zayid. Zayid is a Qatar native, but this should be a “thanks for playing” type win for Bhambri-Dodig, who combined to split two matches in Montpellier earlier in the month in their first time teaming up. Perhaps the two veterans can give Arevalo-Pavic a run for their money, but for me, the top seeds should be the class of this quarter and earn the semifinal berth.
The second quarter features red hot Bolelli-Vavassori who have done nothing but making finals in 2025. Three tournaments played. Two titles. Three finals. Bopanna-Borges are the opposition in round one. While those two are experienced doubles players, they have never paired together. It’s difficult to see the Italians faltering with how well they have played so far. The other match in this quarter should be fun with Cash-Glasspool going against qualifiers Nouza-Rikl. The Czechs could prove to be a stern test for the Brits after beating Goransson-Verbeek and Haase-Middelkoop to qualify. For me, Cash-Glasspool would have the better shot to be competitive against Bolelli-Vavassori. It’s hard to go against the Italians here, but it would be a revenge spot for the Brits.
This half could well end up being seed versus seed for a spot in the final. It’s difficult to spot a team that will take out Arevalo-Pavic, if they’re playing at a consistent level. Bolelli-Vavassori have the slightly tougher ask with a Cash-Glasspool meeting in the quarterfinals being a definite BANGER ALERT! If it comes down to seed versus seed, the Italians have a little momentum having finally beaten the top seeds this year for the first time in five tries.
My Favorite: Bolelli-Vavassori
My Sleeper: Cash-Glasspool
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter should be a real thrill ride. Krawietz-Puetz are the seeds, but the other three duos here are all capable of making a run. The Germans will be up against it right away with Mektic-Venus as their first round foes. Krawietz-Puetz have been sensational on outdoor hard courts since the start of 2024 with a 25-9 record, including 7-2 this season. This is a spot where we find out more about Mektic-Venus, who have tallied a decent amount of wins this year, but have yet to take on these top tier teams. If they get the upset early, you certainly peg them as favorites for that semifinal spot. The other opening round match pits Ebden-Vliegen against Salisbury-Skupski. These are two new pairings for 2025 that have yet to take off. It’s going to be a much needed win for one of them, but who? Both have dropped their openers in two of three tournaments played, so this one really looks like a coin flip. I still feel like Ebden-Vliegen are closer to figuring it out, but it may be more about who adapts to the sometimes difficult conditions in Doha.
The final quarter looks like one that Heliovaara-Patten should run through. The key thing obviously is whether there is any rust with the break after winning in Melbourne. The AO champs skipped playing in Dallas, a tournament they originally planned on playing, to get more rest as Harri said in his blog , for both the mind and body. Griekspoor-Pavlasek will be an interesting test to start, but with those two having no previous experience together, you’d think eventually that the chemistry of the seeded pair will get them through. A lot of eyes will be on the other match in this quarter in round one with Djokovic playing a rare doubles match with (checks draw) … Fernando Verdasco?? The 41-year-old has long been a resident of Doha, so that part makes sense. He’s also not officially retired from tennis, but will be after this event. He announced this will be his last match or matches. He did play a couple of doubles matches in Futures in late January. Djokovic-Verdasco will tackle Bublik-Khachanov in round one. Those two also have never paired together. Khachanov’s best success usually comes with Rublev, as witnessed in Hong Kong when the Russians made the final to start this season. Bublik plays doubles sporadically (once in 2025) and usually finds himself on the losing end. Seven of his last ten tournaments where he’s played doubles, Bublik has lost his opening match.
I think regardless of who comes through in that opener, Heliovaara-Patten are the clear cut class of this quarter and this half for me. Krawietz-Puetz would be the biggest challengers if they can clear their quarter and that’s not set in stone, but certainly something they can achieve. Could we get all seeds in the semifinals? History would say it’s unlikely with 2016 being the last time that happened at the Qatar Open. This draw however does give 2025 some potential to give us an all-seeded semifinal field.
My Favorite: Heliovaara-Patten
My Sleeper: Mektic-Venus
CLOSING TIME
This is a week where I believe one of the top four seeds will put their stamp on things. Heliovaara-Patten enter the week as the #1 team, but Bolelli-Vavassori are right on their heels at #2. The Italians are only 140 points behind the AO champs thanks to their title runs in Adelaide and Rotterdam. There is a big gap of almost 1,000 points to Krawietz-Puetz at #3 and Cash-Glasspool sit at #4. Arevalo-Pavic sit well back in 7th and could certainly use the boost of winning in Doha. I’m not straying from what have looked like the two best pairs in 2025 in my picks this week. I do think Cash-Glasspool remain a team to watch and perhaps the signature win is coming this week. Until it happens, give me the two top dogs here as the best shots to add to their trophy cases in 2025.
PIGPIX
Heliovaara-Patten
Bolelli-Vavassori
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