MELBOURNE NEWS & NOTES
*The revolving door of partners has hit the WTA in 2025 and that means we will not see a repeat champion on the ladies’ side either this year. (2)Hsieh-Mertens won the titles last year as 1.44 (-227) favorite, the exact same price as Bopanna-Ebden on the men’s side. Unlike the men, the ladies have been dominated by top seeds in recent history in Melbourne. The last five champions have been either a one or two seed and a top two seed has been involved in every final since 2016!
*Stosur-Zhang were the last unseeded pair to take home the titles in Melbourne back in 2019. They were 2.61 (+161) underdogs when they knocked off (2)Babos-Mladenovic in that year’s final. Unseeded pairs have had a much tougher time on the WTA side of getting into the semifinals with only three of them amongst the last 20 semifinalists. 2019 was the last time we saw multiple unseeded pairs in the semis with three of four making it the year that Stosur-Zhang became the champs.
*So does the lack of unseeded pairs making deep runs mean that underdog hits are baron in the ladies’ draw in Melbourne? The grid below says maybe not, although 2024 saw a paltry ten underdog wins out of 62 completed matches.
You can see however that a top five seed has lost in round one in four of the last six years and at least four seeds have gone home early four times in that same span. It’s just that the “dogs” in those situation have not been bigger like they seem to be on the men’s side. Look at last year as an example with (7)Melichar-Martinez/Perez being the highest seed to lose early, yet they were actually s slight underdog in that match. The seeds between 12-15 who all lost in round one only saw one moderate dog priced winner at 2.72 (+172) when (12)Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo lost to Busca-Panova.
*Underdog wins were few and far between last year, but there were two juicy scores in round two and three. One came at 3.62 (+262) and the other at 4.49 (+349) with both involving seeded losses. If you look at the grid above again, you can see that multiple top eight seeds have lost in those rounds in five of the last six years. That might be a good spot to focus on for some larger hits. Another decent spot to look at is the semifinals. The semifinals have been a decent source of underdog victories the last three years with at least one of the two semis going that way in that span. Overall, dog hits numbered 14 and 15 each of the last two years, slightly better than the 2024 numbers.
*Three set matches made up about a third of the results in 2024 with 23 matches needing the extra set to finish. Thirteen of those were in round one with six of those seeing a seeded duo involved. That was a trend overall with 16 of the three set finishes overall involving at least one seeded pair. 2023 had 20 three set matches and 14 of them involved at least one seeded team. Is the trend real? Go back to 2022 and you’ll find the numbers fairly consisten again with 24 three set finishes and 14 of those involving seeds. Matches involving seeds might be where your eyes should drift if you’re hunting three set matches.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
I’ve already ranted on about how the ladies’ draw does not show the same success for unseeded pairs making deep runs as the men’s draw does. So does that mean the unseeded menace is non-existent in the WTA? Certainly not, it’s just that they generally have not made it as far as the final that often. Last year, two of the eight quarterfinalists in Melbourne were unseeded, but neither advanced. 2023 also had two unseeded pairs as part of the final eight duos with Kostyuk-Rose moving on to the semifinals. There has been an unseeded team in the semifinals on the WTA side three of the last four years. Ten unseeded pairs have made the quarters during that span, so you’ll likely see a few, but the chances of them going all the way has generally been very small.
Let’s take a look at the pairs who could be in that mix and making noise as the tournament winds down.
Andreeva-Shnaider
Listen. At some point during the year, I expect this dynamic duo to be seeded on the regular. That they are unseeded here makes them the #1 danger duo for me. We’ve already seen how good they can be. There was the silver medal run at the Olympics in 2024 and they won the Brisbane titles to start off 2025. They’re in the portion of the draw that houses Errani-Paolini as the nearest seed, so we could well get a rematch of last year’s gold medal match in Paris. I think hard courts make them even more dangerous. The intrigue of course will come on how they balance singles runs with their heavier schedule of doubles in 2025. I’m not counting them out of winning multiples titles and they could re-announce themselves in Melbourne.
Collins-Krawczyk
If Andreeva-Shnaider are my number one unseeded pair, this could be the next best thing. The two Americans are expected to pair more regularly in 2025. Their past suggests they can have immediate success in spite of only playing two tournaments together since the start of 2023. The American duo has a career mark of 11-3 together, including a semifinal run at Wimbledon back in 2022. Their last action came at the Olympics where they lost a tough super tie breaker to the Kichenok sisters in round two. They start with an absolute BANGER against (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe in round one. It could be a quick end or it could be the catalyst for greatness with a win.
Mihalikova/Nicholls
They could score an upset to start with (3)Hsieh-Ostapenko first up. Mihalikova-Nicholls played regularly in 2024 with a 20-15 record. They made eight quarterfinals or better including a finals run on grass in Hertogenbosch. There isn’t much on that 2024 resume that suggests they would be the elite pairs, but again, there are a lot of these newer pairs in their path and that gives them a chance. An early upset could really blow up their part of the draw and put them on a more even playing field, which could make them contenders for a deep run.
Dart-Parry/Noskova-Watson
These two I am listing together because one will be gone after round one as they are set to battle one another. Both of these duos got in some limited play together in 2024 and both produced encouraging results. Dart-Parry went 4-2 with a finals trip on grass in Nottingham and they got their feet wet in Slam play with a third round run at the U.S. Open. Wins over Melichar-Martinez/Perez, Errani-Paolini and Noskova-Schnaider are enough for me to keep tabs on this pair as a potential dark horse if they survive round one. Noskova-Watson played Abu Dhabi late in the year as their debut together and all they did was make the final with a win over Melichar-Martinez/Perez and and a tight loss to Kenin/Mattek-Sands. Watson had some nice results with other partners as well with Noskova doing the same, including a trip to the medal round at the Olympics alongside Muchova. There’s plenty of talent here to suggest the survivors will be a threat moving forward.
Fourlis-Hue
Is there Aussie magic to be had on the WTA side? These two could be the ones to watch if that’s a thing in 2025. They already burst out of the gates this season with an ITF title run in Canberra. All they did in 2024 was make finals on the ITF level in limited action with three finals out of four tournaments played. Two of those ended in titles on clay. This is a massive step up and they have to battle (8)Mertens-Perez in their debut Grand Slam match. Still, with Mertens-Perez having no reps yet as they begin their new partnership for 2025, I’m interested to see if the Aussies can take advantage with their chemistry already on display.
Kostyuk-Ruse
I mentioned these two in the introduction, so they’ve got to be on the list. They don’t play together a lot, but they have played at eight Grand Slams together. One of their best runs came here in Melbourne in 2023 as they made the semifinals. This will be their first trip back to Melbourne since that run. If you wonder if that was a one off, they let you know last year at the French Open that they are still plenty dangerous. They made the semifinals in Paris, losing to Errani-Paolini in the semis. They’re in the same part of the draw as the Mertens-Perez/Fourlis-Hue match, so they could see the winner of that in round two if they advance. Watch out if they get past that point.
Xu-Yang
They don’t play regularly, but this experienced Chinese pair has 81 matches together in their careers. They did not play a match at all in 2024, but reprised their partnership to start 2025 with a 1-1 record in Brisbane. If you look at their past, they’ve had plenty of big runs on hard courts including a couple of titles in 2022 (Indian Wells, San Jose). They’ve also played Melbourne twice in the past, so they know these courts. They’re in part of the draw where you have some new 2025 pairs as the seeds, so it’s possible they could take advantage of those pairs before they full get their rhythm going.
Cociaretto-Samsonova
Both are more known for singles, but they paired up once in 2024 and showed some immediate good results. They made the semifinals in Beijing in their debut together. While they didn’t beat any top tier teams, chemistry is a big thing this season for me with so many of the seeded pairs getting together for the first time.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Five seeds dropped their openers a year ago in Melbourne and we’ve seen at least four seeds go out in round one in five of the last six years. A top five seed has been a casualty in four of the last six runs in Melbourne with the five seed accounting for three of those losses. The vast majority of the seeded losses come from seeds 11-16 with those spots making up 15 of the last 26 seeded upsets. Let’s take a look at this year’s seeds who could be prone to an early upset.
(2)Dabrowski-Routliffe
The second seeds were splendid at Slams a year ago with a semifinal here in Melbourne followed by a finals run at Wimbledon and a quarterfinal finish at the U.S. Open. Their Slam debut back in 2023 was a title run at the U.S. Open, so there’s not much to worry about as far as how they should fare. Their first round match-up is a difficult one though with Collins-Krawczyk in their path. It’s going to be a fight for survival, so I have to put Dabrowski-Routliffe on the list.
(3)Hsieh-Ostapenko
New year. New team. One match. One loss. Krueger-Pegula defeated them in their debut in Adelaide. We know they’re both skilled with Hsieh as a multiple doubles Grand Slam winner and Ostapenko scoring her first one last Fall at the U.S. Open. MIhalikova-Nicholls are the opposition. They have plenty of time on court together, but the question is whether they can step up and beat some of the better teams on tour. Hsieh-Ostapenko may be that at some point, but they have to prove that with some wins first.
(6)Mertens-Perez
It’s the 2025 debut for this new pairing and as I keep beating into the atmosphere, chemistry is something we have to wait and see about. They get the Aussie wild cards Fourlis-Hule who I touched on earlier. It might be too much to ask for those two who have not played a lot on stages like this, but they could also push the seeds here if Mertens-Perez struggle to find their game.
(10)Kenin-Niculescu
It’s the debut match for this pair, so the question is out there of course as to how they will mesh. They take on Kato-Zarazua who have played just one match together, a loss in Hobart. Kato is the steady one on her side, having paired with multiple partners last year with a title and two other finals. With Kenin-Niculescu sorting out their chemistry, there’s going to be some opportunity early I think for them to struggle.
(11)Kudermetova-Shibahara
Broken record time. First time team up for 2025. Chemistry is the doubt early, so that leaves the door open for an early upset. They get Pipeuch-Tsao, wild card entries that have a handful of matches played together. That includes splitting a pair in Auckland earlier in the month. They also showed their prowess by winning the first tournament they played together last year in Bastad on clay. I think they can catch the seeds here if they don’t get on the same page quickly.
(14)Bouzkova-BMS
I like this team a lot and think as the season progresses, they’ll be stronger. Right now though, they’ve gone 1-2 in the Aussie summer series and still look to be finding themselves back on the doubles courts. That’s not unexpected with them only playing three times together in 2024. They square off against Eikeri-Ninomiya who are in a similar spot. They played Hobart, splitting two matches. Last year, they did get in a half dozen matches and won the Hong Kong titles. There is chemistry there, so I do think they will at least make Bouzkova-BMS earn it, if they lose.
(16)Fernandez-Kichenok
The last seeded pair has just one match together and it was a loss to kick start 2025 in Brisbane. They’l start against young Aussie wild cards Gibson-Joint. The Aussies have just five matches together, including three so far this year (1-2). Gibson has some reps at the Australian Open having played doubles the last two years. Could the third time be the charm in finding a win? It’s a tough ask with Fernandez-Kichenok both having plenty of experience, just not together. That’s going to be a theme here with the seeds though and some of these unseeded pairs are going to cash in.
*To access the ladies’ doubles draw, click DRAW PREVIEW above*
TOP HALF
First Quarter
Top seeds Siniakova-Townsend reprise their partnership that led to the Wimbledon titles in 2024 along with a semifinal showing at the U.S. Open. They went 16-6 as a pair and there is little worry that they won’t find their rhythm again in Australia in their season debut. The draw looks helpful early with (15)Fernandez-Kichenok as the seed standing in the way of a quarterfinal berth. I do think round two could be interesting with either Dolehide-Krueger or Aoyama-Hozumi in the way. Aoyama-Hozumi did some of their best work on hard courts last year, but they rarely step up to push the top tier teams. Dolehide-Krueger would be the X-factor for me as we see them play for the first time together this tournament. Either way, I do expect Siniakova-Townsend to likely get through, but it might be a battle. Watch for Bucsa-Sizikova in the bottom portion of this top half. They have played well together and could be the best team in that part of the draw. (15)Fernandez-Kichenok may grow in confidence if they can escape round one, but I don’t know that they’re ones to fear at this point.
The bottom half looks harder to decode with (5)Chan-Kichenok and U.S. Open runners-up (9)Mladenovic-Zhang leading the way. Chan-Kichenok have struggled a bit as their new partnership takes shape with losses in two of three so far. That included getting bageled late by Siegemund-Haddad Maia in a loss last time out in Adelaide. I do think they can survive their opener, but round two could be the stopping point with either Dart-Parry or Noskova-Watson waiting. I already laid out that I like the survivor of that opener to be a threat to make a deep run. Give me Noskova-Watson. As for Mladenovic-Zhang, can they pick up where they left off last Fall in New York? This will be their first tournament together since that magical run. They should survive round one with Kessler-Rus playing for the first time, but round two may be harder. I’m especially intrigued to see if Stearns-Stefani can mesh well and be a danger to the seeds. Mladenovic-Zhang do have the experience edge and they have basically beat the teams they should beat when they pair up. That’s most of what they see in this section until a potential clash with Chan-Kichenok, if seeding holds. I’m not so sure it will. I’d expect Mladenovic-Zhang to be the last seed standing in this portion of the draw, but it could be Noskova-Watson or Dart-Parry who sneak into the quarters.
Siniakova-Townsend are the clear cut favorites as the #1 seeds and well because Siniakova is doubles royalty with nine doubles titles at Grand Slams at the age of just 28! I have a hard time seeing a team here that’s a clear challenger to them at their best, although Mladenovic-Zhang could pose an intriguing quarterfinal showdown.
My Favorite: Siniakova-Townsend
My Sleeper: Noskova-Watson
Second Quarter
(4)Errani-Paolini are the lead seeds here in the top half. The Italians had a brilliant 2024 with Olympic gold as the highlight. Their two best runs both came on clay in Paris at the French Open and the Olympics, so it’s fair to wonder how they’ll do here. A year ago, they lost to Hsieh-Mertens in a blockbuster round of 16 match. They went 12-6 on outdoor hard courts, but five of those wins came in Beijing during a title push, so they were just above .500 otherwise. They got Aussies Hon-Saville to start. While they may not be in danger of losing, don’t be surprised if the Aussies use home cooking to push it to three sets. The real danger likely comes in round two with Andreeva-Schaider as the most dangerous floaters in the draw. With new tandem (14)Bouzkova/Mattek-Sands in the bottom portion of this half, you can see an avenue for Andreeva-Schnaider to dazzle and make their presence known. Bouzkova-BMS may be fortunate to survive Eikeri-Ninomiya in round one. Keep an eye on unseeded pair Krunic-Stojanovic in that half. They haven’t paired since 2021, but they are 13-7 together with a Wimbledon quarterfinal and more experience at Slams from playing the U.S. Open that same year. Although they didn’t play together, both already have nice results in 2025 with finals runs for Krunic in Auckland and Stojanovic at the ITF level in Canberra. They might be candidates to make it as far as round three.
In the other half of the quarter, it’s (8)Danilina-Khromecheva and (11)Kudermetova-Shibahara as the seeds. Danilina-Khromacheva split four matches in two tournaments in the Aussie prep tournaments. They could face a test to open against Rakhimova-Sorribes Tormo. Both are experienced doubles vets who play for the first time together. I do think the seeds move on, but they could be pushed to three sets where anything can happen. Jiang-Wang could be an unseeded duo to watch in that same part. It’s another first time pairing, but one that could yield a big return if they gel. Kudermetova-Shibahara are making their debut, so that lingering theme of chemistry follows them too. Wild cards Pipeuch-Tsao have played a little bit together, so that’s a legitimate test in round one. Kudermetova had a solid 2024 once she paired with Chan, but struggled for wins with other partners. There is some upset potential here too. Danilina-Khromacheva seem the more likely seed to survive, but there’s nothing definite for either seeded pair in this half. I definitely could see an unseeded pair getting through here with Jiang-Wang and Pipeuch-Tsao amongst the leaders for that push. Wang-Zheng are also ones to watch, but they struggled on hard courts in limited play last year after some good results in the Spring on clay and grass.
This quarter SCREAMS unseeded semifinalist to me. You know I’m a huge fan of the Andreeva-Schnaider pairing, so that’s an easy choice for me and many others to make. I’d probably like Errani-Paolini more as strong possibilities if they were in the bottom half of this quarter instead. They could prove me wrong, but I’m not feeling them here early. As for seeds, I do like the Bouzkova-BMS pairing, but I’m not sure they’re ready just yet. Krunic-Stojanovic, Wang-Zheng and Jiang-Wang are the others who could be the surprise ingredient in an unseeded semifinal berth.
My Favorite: Andreeva-Schnaider
My Sleeper: Bouzkova/Mattek-Sands
BOTTOM HALF
Third Quarter
All four seeded of the seeded pairs in this section are new teams for 2025. Some have already seen some success, while others are hoping Melbourne will be their breakout tournament. Starting in the (3)Hsieh-Ostapenko half, it’s a harsh opener against Mihalikova-Nicholls in round one. Hsieh-Ostapenko for me are the prototypical boom or bust team in this spot. It’s the perfect opportunity for Mihalikova-Nicholls to score a marquee win, but will they step up? The survivors shouldn’t look past round two where Xu-Yang could be waiting. The Chinese pair have played the Australian Open twice and have plenty of experience to draw on. (13)Babos/Melichar-Martinez are the other seeds in this half. They’ve looked solid in going 3-2 so far this season and hold a win over Xu-Yang. Their draw looks more workable with two pairs that haven’t played together and Baptiste-McNally to start. The two Americans have only paired once and that was back in 2021, where they did win a tournament on clay. Still, I like Babos-MM a lot in this section and they seem more in tune already with a chance of making a deep run.
The other half of the quarter houses (6)Mertens-Perez and (12)Guo-Panova as the seeds. Guo-Panova are the ones to watch after a scintillating Adelaide title run. The 12 seeds beat Bouzkova-BMS, Siniakova-Perez AND Siegemund-Haddad Maia en route to the titles. That’s a superb showing and spotlights them as a potential breakout team to watch. Cabrera-Preston, the Aussie wild cards, could make life tough in round one, but I think experience wins out. I expect Guo-Panova to be in position to fight for a quarterfinal. As for Mertens-Perez, Fourlis-Hule may be a danger duo to monitor in round one as Mertens-Perez learn each other’s games. Even if they do survive round one, Kostyuk-Ruse could be waiting in round two to make things more harsh. I’m a big proponent of Guo-Panova, so that’s my team in this section. Certainly Mertens-Perez wouldn’t surprise if they pulled it together for a quality run, but let’s see them before I get on board. Kostyuk-Ruse are the obvious dark horses to monitor.
I’m looking at a seeded showdown potentially between Guo-Panova and Babos-MM in the quarters. I prefer them over the higher seeds simply because they’ve already shown some solid results early. That is the guess work of a new season as Hsieh-Ostapenko and Mertens-Perez certainly have all the talent to put it together and win the whole thing. If an unseeded team squeezes through, you’d be daft not to put Kostyuk-Ruse at the top of the list in this quarter.
My Favorite: Guo-Panova
My Sleeper: Babos/Melichar-Martinez
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter will start with an absolute BANGER with (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe squaring off against Collins-Krawczyk. That should set the stage for this quarter. If Dabrowski-Routliffe survive, that is the exact kind of win that sets them up to become Grand Slam champions for a second time. The survivor of that match will be seen as the favorites for the quarterfinal slot out of this half. That’s even with (15)Siegemund-Haddad Maia residing in the other portion of this draw. They did show well in making the Adelaide final, but walked the tight rope with a couple of super tie break wins before losing to Guo-Panova in the final. Siegemund-Haddad Maia had trouble beating the better teams last year after reprising their partnership. That shouldn’t keep them from making at least the round of 16 with the draw set up nicely for them. Linette-Olmos would be one unseeded duo to watch, but I still think Siegemund-HM have the goods to get through for a shot at a quarterfinal.
The other half of this quarter sees two more new pairings as the seeds. (7)Muhammad-Schuurs have played a bit together with four matches last year (2-2) and a loss to start 2025. (10)Kenin-Niculescu have yet to pair up, but have plenty of juice in doubles to think that they could be an intriguing combo. Niculescu already showed that with a finals run alongside Stollar in Hobart. Their opener is a little scary with Kato-Zarazua as ones who could prove a difficult out. An early win for the ten seeds should help propel them to at least a couple of wins. As for Muhammad-Schuurs, the doubles pedigrees for both are strong, so you’d expect they could be formidable. They are 2-3 in limited play together, so it hasn’t really clicked in yet. They have the advantage of playing in a section littered with first time pairs, so it gives them a bit of wiggle room to try and get things together early on. Given their draw, it would be a bit disappointing if they didn’t at least make the round of 16. It feels like it could fall to seed versus seed for the quarterfinal, but early in the season, that’s far from a given.
Dabrowski-Routliffe still look like a strong pick in this quarter even with Collins-Krawczyk on tap first up. You might be scared about this being their first match of 2025, but I think they’re one of those teams that doesn’t really need the reps to be considered a contender from the get go. I’m drifting to Kenin-Niculescu as the choice opposite of them, but Muhammad-Schuurs wouldn’t be a bad pick either. For unseeded chances, I think it starts and stops with Collins-Krawczyk. As I said before, if they win that opener, then they become the favorites to get to the semifinals.
My Favorite: Dabrowski-Routliffe
My Sleeper: Collins-Krawczyk
CLOSING TIME
The top two seeded positions have dominated the winning formula for the Australian Open on the ladies’ side for quite some time. I have no problem with those two again being the firm favorites in this field with Siniakova-Townsend as the top choice to me and Dabrowski-Routliffe firmly behind them due to that killer opener. I think the likes of Guo-Panova and Babos/Melichar-Martinez can also be included on the short list, especially if Dabrowski-Routliffe are knocked out early. I think Siniakova-Townsend have the best draw in that top half, so they’re an easy selection for my short list. I think the only thing that stands in their way is their own expectations. We saw Siniakova get a bit frustrated last Fall in New York when things didn’t go as smoothly as they did at Wimbledon. If we get #1 versus #2, it’s must see TV again after seeing those two go against each other twice in finals last year. Dabrowski-Routliffe got their revenge at the end of the year after losing the Wimbledon final, so it’s an even playing field. If there is an unseeded finalist, something that has not happened as much on the WTA side, it’s Andreeva-Schnaider and Collins-Krawczyk that I look to as having perhaps the best shots.
What I’m most looking forward to with this draw is seeing all of these new pairings and seeing which ones CLICK. Last year, the veteran partnerships dominated the proceedings for the most part. The feeling this year is that we’re going to see some of these new pairs rise up and show out. Enjoy the show.
PIG PIX (Top 3 choices to win)
Siniakova-Townsend
Dabrowski-Routliffe
Babos/Melichar-Martinez
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 