AUCKLAND NEWS & NOTES
*Nikola Mektic is back in Auckland seeking a three-peat. The Croat won the 2023 titles alongside Mate Pavic and the 2024 trophies with Wesley Koolhof. For 2025, his partner is Michael Venus. Mektic-Koolhof were 2.16 (+116) unseeded underdogs in the final when they beat Granollers-Zeballos 6-3, 6-7(5), 10-7.
*Three of the last four champions in Auckland have been unseeded. Mektic-Pavic were the only seeds to win in that span as the #1s in 2023. They were the first top seeded team to win here since 2018 when Marach-Pavic took the titles. The largest underdog hit in the championship match recently came in 2019 when McLachlan-Struff won as 2.28 (+128) dogs over (3)Klaasen-Venus.
*Super tie break finishes have been needed in four of the last six runs of the ASB Classic title match dating back to 2017. Do recall that the pandemic shut down this stop in both 2021 and 2022. STBs were huge overall in 2024 with eleven of the 15 matches needing the extra frame to finish. Round one last year featured seven super tie break matches out of eight played. That was a big bump up from just five STBs in 2023 and just three in 2020.
*Underdog wins were minimal in 2024 with just three hitting out of the 15 completed matches. The biggest came in round one when Cash-Galloway took out Arevalo-Pavic as 2.69 (+169) dogs. Five wins by the dogs is the biggest run in recent times (2020). Round one is a good place to focus on with four underdog wins coming over the last three runs in that round at the cost of a seeded pair. Even in 2024 when the three seeded teams survived, all of them were forced into super tie break finishes, so that seems to be a place where seeds might be a bit vulnerable depending on the matchup.
THE UNSEEDED MENACES
Look no further than the season’s two opening tournaments in Brisbane and Hong Kong to see multiple unseeded semifinalists in both and Hong Kong featuring two unseeded pairs (Khachanov-Rublev & Arends-Johnson) vying for the title. Half of last year’s semifinal field in Auckland were unseeded pairs. There have been multiple unseeded duos in the final four here in each of the last three runs with a high of three teams in 2020. That means you’ll likely find some outsiders still standing late in the tournament.
Here are the pairs that stick out as ones to watch:
Arends-Johnson
The aforementioned duo finished 2024 hot with titles indoors in Metz and carried that through to start off 2025. They will face a tough opener against Bhambri-Olivetti, who could also fill the menace role, but given their form, you have to keep them high on the outsiders list in Auckland.
Behar-Galloway
These two played a limited schedule together, but the majority of it came late in 2024. They showed well with a final in Tokyo and semis in Hangzhou and quarters in Shanghai. They finished 6-3 on outdoor hard courts. This is their first tournament together in 2025 after Galloway spent the opening days at the United Cup. They face (2)Gonzalez-Molteni first with the two seeds making a third appearance in Auckland. They’ve needed super tie breaks in all three of their career matches here (1-2), so there should be some chances I believe for Behar-Galloway to score the upset and perhaps be a thorn in the side of more teams in this draw.
Erler-Mies
Keep an eye on these two. They narrowly lost to Djokovic-Kyrgios in Brisbane in their season opener (10-8 STB finish). Their first tournament together last year was a title run in Kitzbuhel. Five of their six career matches have gone to super tie breaks, so they’re very competitive overall. They get (4)Doumbia-Reboul to open. The French pair started well in Hong Kong with a semifinal run and also made the semis here a year ago. They’ll be tough, but an early upset for Erler-Mies really opens things up in the bottom half of the draw, where they could end up as contenders.
ONE AND DONE WATCH
Every week, I’ll be looking at the seeds and which ones look prone to upsets in their opening matches.
(1)Mektic-Venus
This partnership is still in its infancy with this week’s top seeds going 1-1 to start the year in Brisbane. Both matches went to super tie break finishes. They get Gonzalez-Erler, a new pair for 2025. Likewise, they split matches in their opener in Hong Kong. It is a “home” tournament for Venus and I highlighted Mektic’s success here, but this first match could be tricky.
(2)Gonzalez-Molteni
I touched on these two above in the Unseeded Menaces section. Erler-Mies will provide the competition to start and it could well be more than just a scare. In addition to their STB history in Auckland, Gonzalez-Molteni saw ten of their 18 matches on outdoor hard courts in 2024 need a final set or super tie break to settle. That means many of their matches were CLOSE. I expect this might be another one to add to that list.
(4)Doumbia-Reboul
Another duo I briefly touched on above when talking more about Erler-Mies who they will face in the opening round. Doumbia-Reboul have the experience in Auckland on their side and did play pretty well in Hong Kong. Still, this looks like it could be a tight one between two pairs that seem fairly equal.
*Note: The link to the doubles draw can be found by clicking “Draw Preview”
TOP HALF
The seeds in this half are (1)Mektic-Venus and (3)Cash-Glasspool. Cash-Glasspool made the Brisbane final to start the year as they wait to find out their opponent. It will be a quick turnaround for them regardless of that finish, but if they’re here on a roll, then you have to like their chances of making another deep run.
In the Mektic-Venus quarter, it would be a stunner for the semifinal pair not to come from the clash between the top seeds and Gonzalez-Miedler in round one. An upset is possible, but I’ll side with Mektic-Venus to find a way although it could be a bumpy ride. The survivor gets either New Zealand wild card duo Daniell-Watt or the “singles pair” of Carballes Baena-Darderi. You’d love to give the locals a shot, but Daniell struggled so much to find wins in 2024 (6-18). Watt won 32 matches on the doubles courts in 2024, but most of that work was at the Futures level. The singles pair are the firm favorites according to odds makers despite never pairing in the past. Regardless, it’s going to be an uphill task for the winners to win in the quarters against either Mektic-Venus or Gonzalez-Miedler.
As for the Cash-Glasspool quarter, the Brits have looked solid to start of the year. They did need super tie breaks to get through both their wins en route to the Brisbane final though, so there’s probably some evening out due to them in those situations. It seems unlikely to come against inexperienced Kiwi wild cards Pannu-Rai. Rai is the more accomplished doubles player with 40+ wins in 2024, but again, many of those were at the Futures level. This is the Kiwi pair’s first time pairing together since they played in Futures together back in 2020. The peskier out for the seeds in this section will be either Bhambri-Olivetti or Arends-Johnson. A late finish in Hong Kong in the final could hurt Arends-Johnson some, so Bhambri-Olivetti could be small underdogs to look at in that opener. Bhambri-Olivetti did their best work on clay last season, but they did make the final on hard courts in Chengdu last Fall and also scored an upset of Krajicek-Ram at the US Open. They’re not an easy out.
Projected SF: (1)Mektic-Venus vs Bhambri-Olivetti
My Sleeper: Bhambri-Olivetti
BOTTOM HALF
Your seeds in the bottom of the draw are (2)Gonzalez-Molteni & (4)Doumbia-Reboul. Doumbia-Reboul remain one of the more underrated pairs in my opinion. They may never charge towards a Grand Slam final, but this is their setting. 250s are where the Frenchies do quite a bit of their damage, albeit clay is their best surface.
In the top quarter with Doumbia-Reboul, the four seeds will be up against it in round one. Erler-Mies have shown in limited play that they are going to be pests. The question will be if they can win consistently on surfaces that are not clay. It’s a tough call in round one between those two. I’m thinking super tie break to settle it, but I would not be surprised with either team winning. The other match in this quarter is intriguing. Rajeev Ram scrambled for a different partner I believe after Krajicek suffered an injury in Brisbane. He found Christian Harrison to pair with, a first time team up for the Americans. Christian had a blistering 2024 on the doubles court with 50 wins and six titles. All of that came on the Challenger level. Interestingly, Harrison lost to Krajicek-Ram last week in Brisbane when paired with Marcus Willis. He’s definitely got doubles skills and paired with the veteran Ram, they could be contenders if the chemistry is there. Frantzen-Jebens are a formidable veteran pair to go against in round one. They haven’t gotten a lot of reps on outdoor hard courts yet, but continue to improve. I wouldn’t sleep on either team and if you look at this quarter as a whole, I have a hard time separating the four pairs. Doumbia-Reboul have the experience edge together, but there’s plenty of talent on all four teams. The French may well escape into the semifinals here, but I think they will be challenged along the way.
In the last quarter, Gonzalez-Molteni may need only to avoid defeat on round one to have a legit shot to push into the final. Behar-Galloway definitely shape up as their most difficult opposition I think in this quarter. With both teams debuting in 2025 for the first time, I’d expect a bit of a roller coaster ride and perhaps a super tie break to find the winner. The other match, you’re looking at four guys more known in the singles world with Baez and Comesana having paired up last year one time in Brisbane in 2024. Pedro Martinez and Yunchaokete Bu have never teamed up with both playing some doubles, but not a ton. Flip a coin as far as a winner there, but you’d definitely give a big edge to the survivor between Gonzalez-Molteni and Behar-Galloway. I’m still liking Behar-Galloway, but that’s also when Gonzalez-Molteni seem to surprise me and get the job done.
Projected SF: (4)Doumbia-Reboul vs Behar-Galloway
My Sleeper: Behar-Galloway
CLOSING TIME
There are more regular teams than not who are already playing in their second tournament of the new season when they hit New Zealand. That should yield some good play and perhaps an early chance for teams like Cash-Glasspool and Arends-Johnson to follow up on finals’ runs to prove they’re not flukes. If you’re following me on Twitter @tennispig or BlueSky @tennispig.bky.social – you know that I’m high on this Cash-Glasspool partnership. They showed well enough in 2024 and built upon that to start 2025. The sticking point for them early on I think is going to be proving they can either A. Continue to win super tie breaks or B. Get the job done easier in straight sets. Eight of their 14 career matches have ended in STBs with a 5-3 record. So far only one of their losses has come in straight sets, they’re usually in every match.
Arends-Johnson had a fantastic run of 15 wins in 19 matches in 2024 after they paired up for the first time in August. They’re a little lighter on ATP-level wins than some, so it is a proving ground for them every tournament they get at this level. That alone can be a big motivator. I think this week in Auckland is going to tell us a bit more about this pair. Neither has had the sustained ATP type of success of a Harri Heliovaara to suggest this duo could blow up the likes of Heliovaara-Patten in 2024, but another strong week is going to put them squarely on everyone’s radar of team’s to watch in 2025.
Obviously the top seeded pairing of Mektic-Venus is one everyone is going to be looking at with the veterans starting decently last week, but looking to make a bigger splash in week two. Being finalists here hasn’t really guaranteed much going to Melbourne for the Australian Open, in fact it’s maybe projected a bit that those teams might wind up disappointing a bit at the season’s first Grand Slam. 2019 finalists Klaasen-Venus were the last pair to make a final in Auckland and get as far as a quarterfinal in Melbourne. Otherwise, it’s been shorter finishes mostly for the finalists as they transition to Grand Slam play. If your favorite pair falls short this week, it might actually be good news.
PIGPIX
Behar-Galloway
Mektic-Venus
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 