TURIN: NEWS & NOTES
*Only two teams from last year’s ATP Finals’ field return in 2024. Granollers-Zeballos were finalists a year ago as they make their fifth straight appearance at the Tour Finals. Bopanna-Ebden are the other repeat team from 2023. They made the semifinals in 2023 and could be playing their last tournament together. The pair has indicated they would be discussing their future as 2024 winds down. The other six teams in this year’s Tour Finals’ field are new and include the winners of the last three Grand Slams with Arevalo-Pavic (French), Heliovaara-Patten (Wimbledon) and Purcell-Thompson (US Open). It will also be the send off for Wesley Koolhof who announced that 2024 would be his final season. Koolhof-Mektic won the Tour Finals championship back in 2020 when they made the field in their 1st season together.
*Ram-Salisbury were last year’s Tour Finals’ champs, taking the title match 6-3, 6-4 as 1.67 (-149) favorites over Granollers-Zeballos. It was the third straight year that the finale ended in straight sets. The last true underdog winners in the title match were David Marrero and Fernando Verdasco back in 2013. The Spanish duo were 2.96 (+196) dogs in the final against the Bryans. It will be a different vibe without Raj & Joe this year as they had won the event two straight years and been involved in the final in three straight.
*Underdog wins were sparse in 2023 with only four dog hits amongst the 15 completed matches. Dog victories have generally been low at this event with 2020 the last time there was an outbreak with eight hits. Super tie breaks numbered five last year with four of those coming in the group stages and one in the semifinals. Even numbered years have found a bevy of STB finishes recently with eight in 2022 and a whopping ten in 2020.
*Coming to Turin, there is no hotter duo than Koolhof-Mektic. They finished the season at 43-16 with a 13-2 mark since the US Open. That included three finals with two Masters wins in Shanghai and most recently in Paris. Heliovaara-Patten rank the second best over the last two months with a pair of finals in Beijing and Stockholm, where they won the indoor titles. The Wimbledon champions are 10-4 since the US Open. The remainder of the field has played sparingly with most lucky to have racked up a few wins. That makes this all the more interesting to see if some of these teams can turn it on with the big prize waiting at the end of the week.
DRAW PREVIEW
BOB BRYAN GROUP
(1)Arevalo-Pavic (44-18)
(4)Bolelli-Vavassori (41-18)
(6)Bopanna-Ebden (24-14)
(8)Krawietz-Puetz (40-18)
Three of the four duos in this group won at least 40 matches this season. That’s good consistency across the board, but most of the pairs here arrive with next to nothing in form since the US Open. French Open champions Arevalo-Pavic lost all three of their matches after the US Open and arrive on a four match losing skid. Bolelli-Vavassori did do some good work after New York with a title run in Beijing and a quarterfinal run in Shanghai. They did lose their opener in Paris last week, their lone indoor match of 2024. Bopanna-Ebden went 2-2 through the indoor swing this Fall after playing with different partners down the stretch at times. After going 40-20 last season, their 24-14 record certainly rates a bit disappointing when you consider 15 of those wins came in January, February and March. After making the US Open final, Krawietz-Puetz got a clean sweep of three matches in Davis Cup play in September, but have played just once in almost two months. That was an opening match loss in Antwerp in mid-October where the pair retired due to an injury to Puetz.
So in this group we have the Australian Open champs, Bopanna-Ebden and the French Open champs, Arevalo-Pavic. The other two pair feature Krawietz-Puetz as US Open runners-up and Bolelli-Vavassori as runners-up both in Australia and Paris, so there is definitely big match prowess all around. The intriguing part of this quartet is the relative lack of success indoors with their current partners. Bopanna-Ebden and Krawietz-Puetz have a bit more experience on the surface since they’ve been partners longer than the other two duos. Bopanna-Ebden are 9-6 for their career indoors making two finals in 2023 along with the semis at this event. Krawietz-Puetz are 6-7 with a trio of semifinals last year. I think you might give Bopanna-Ebden and Bolelli-Vavassori the slight edge early as they arrive with at least a few wins recently under their belts. That makes the first match day in this group intriguing with those two set to square off.
Those two pairs have played four times in 2024, splitting those matches. It’s no surprise that the Italians won both matches on clay in Rome and Paris, while Bopanna-Ebden won both hard court matches at the Australian Open and in Miami. Two of the four went the distance with one of those on clay and the other on hard. Given Bopanna-Ebden’s success over the Italians on hard surfaces, you’d have to say they should be favored to sneak one out. As for Arevalo-Pavic and Krawietz-Puetz, they play for a 6th time this season. Four have come on outdoor hard courts with the Germans winning three of four. Arevalo-Pavic won the lone clay court clash during their magical French Open title run. Three of the four hard court meetings went the distance, so perhaps that might be something to watch when these two clash. The health of Puetz certainly is up-in-the-air as the Germans did not play together in Paris. The alternates should the Germans be able to take the court at any point are Lammons-Withrow and Gonzalez-Molteni. The American duo would get the first shot as the higher ranked pair.
Arevalo-Pavic will feel good if they can escape the opening day with a win as they are a combined 4-0 against Bolelli-Vavassori (3-0) and Bopanna-Ebden (1-0). Krawietz-Puetz are 2-1 against Bopanna-Ebden and 1-2 against Bolelli-Vavassori, so day one is very important for them. Keep in mind the Bopanna-Ebden win over them came indoors in Rotterdam. Bolelli-Vavassori may feel they need the opening win to have a true shot to come out of this group as it looks like they’d play Arevalo-Pavic on the final group stage day. They lost all three matches to Arevalo-Pavic without winning a set and all three came on clay.
I think when you look overall at this group, there is quite a bit of familiarity between the pairs. That makes things fairly even I believe when you look at the form each duo is bringing into this event. There is no pair that stands out as “hot” coming into this week. I think a key here is the health of Puetz. If he’s good to go, the Germans are a pair that I think are sleepers in this group. They’ve got winning records against two of the three duos here and their lone losing record against the Italians (1-2) saw them get the huge win at the US Open in three sets to net that first win against them. The X-factor might be Bopanna-Ebden. This could be a bit of an emotional tournament for them if this is indeed their final one together as it appears it could be. Even though they went just 2-2 indoors down the stretch, they were extremely competitive in the losses. Arevalo-Pavic actually would worry me the most just because they have not tasted winning lately.
This group to me is difficult to predict because there is not a whole lot to separate one team from the next. Consistency was big for most of these pairs outside of Bopanna-Ebden. I’m going to go with one pair that showed it all the way through and that’s Bolelli-Vavassori. My other choice for this group is Krawietz-Puetz. It’s a bit risky given that Puetz’s injury status from match to match may change, but they seem to match up well against all three of the other pairs with success against them all to some extent.
MIKE BRYAN GROUP
(2)Granollers-Zeballos (42-14)
(3)Koolhof-Mektic (43-16)
(5)Purcell-Thompson (39-7)
(7)Heliovaara-Patten (44-12)
This group has some of the best stories in doubles for 2024. Two first-time Grand Slam champions in Heliovaara-Patten and Purcell-Thompson. Granollers-Zeballos ascending to the #1 ranking for the first time in their careers. And Koolhof-Mektic being one of the most in-form pairs over the last half of the season in Koolhof’s swan song on tour. For me, the Heliovaara-Patten story is the best. Heliovaara started the year off with a new partner in John Peers after switching from his long-term partner Llloyd Glasspool. Heliovaara-Peers struggled to start the year and prompted the Fin to make a switch in April. That’s right, APRIL. Heliovaara-Patten tied for the MOST WINS amongst all the Tour Finals’ pairs and they didn’t even pair up UNTIL APRIL. That is amazing and also shows the consistency they carried throughout the season. Purcell-Thompson remain in my eyes THE most underrated duo arriving in Turin. The Aussies made two Grand Slam finals in 2024, losing the heart breaker to Heliovaara-Patten at Wimbledon before the joyous win in New York in September at the US Open. When the season started, we knew they were a pair of good singles guys who had good success in doubles, but most of it had come at smaller tournaments. That is no longer the case as they’ve proven they can win the biggest tournaments in the world.
Granollers-Zeballos have the most experience in this group as this will be their fifth trip to the Tour Finals. They’re still searching for a title here though, just as their hunt continues for a first Grand Slam championship. They’ve been a model of consistency this season with eleven semifinal or finals finishes out of 17 tournaments played. That said, they arrive with only three matches since the US Open and a 1-2 record. The plus is that hasn’t seemed to matter for them arriving at this event in the past, so they certainly should be high on the list of contenders still. For me though, Koolhof-Mektic enter Turin as the team to beat. They went from hanging around at the fringe of the top eight heading to the US Open all the way up to their current ranking at #3. They are 13-2 in their last 15 matches and have shown a propensity for winning big tournaments lately with the Masters wins in Shanghai and Paris. A combined record of 18-6 indoors in their two years teaming up really adds to their aura for me.
Opening day for this group will feature Koolhof-Mektic dueling with Purcell-Thompson and seeking revenge for a loss at the French Open in three sets. The Aussies looked fine in Paris a week or so ago, their first action since winning in New York. They scored wins over Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin and Heliovaara-Patten in super tie breaks before losing to Glasspool-Pavlasek in the semifinals. It’s a big start for Purcell-Thompson with a split record of 1-1 against Heliovaara-Patten waiting for their second match before getting Granollers-Zeballos. They’re 2-0 against Granollers-Zeballos, so a win to start the group could at least net them a 2-1 mark in the group or perhaps set up a sweep. For Koolhof-Mektic, it’s a similar set up with a split 1-1 record against Heliovaara-Patten and a perfect 3-0 against Granollers-Zeballos. For me, the survivor of this first match could well wind up the group leader in qualifying for the semifinals.
As for the other match on Day One for this group, Granollers-Zeballos will be desperate for the win. They beat Heliovaara-Patten in Rome on clay, but that was six months ago. With their combined winless record against the other two teams in this group, it’s possible they could really struggle to find a win in this group. Or do they show up as prime time players at this event with their experience and make all the past losses moot? Heliovaara-Patten are an interesting case in this group. They split matches with both Purcell-Thompson and Koolhof-Mektic. Only their 6-2, 6-2 loss to Koolhof-Mektic at the US Open was lopsided. The other three matches all went the distance, so they figure to be in the mix in every match. The question will be can they finish for wins?
This is going to be a group that I think will have banger after banger, they’re that good and most of the matches throughout the season between these teams have been THAT GOOD. Despite Granollers-Zeballos’ success here, I have to side with the struggle they’ve had winning against the other teams here and pick against them … at my own peril. As I’ve already laid out, I like Koolhof-Mektic a lot in their current form. Not that they need any added incentive, but sending Wesley out as a Tour Finals champ would be the icing on a superbly crafted cake of a doubles career. I think they qualify from this group and I have to go with the underdog Aussies as my other choice. I would not be stunned to see Heliovaara-Patten steal one of those two qualifying spots however, but I think the small margins they’ve played with against these teams makes it difficult.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
SF #1: Bolelli-Vavassori vs Purcell-Thompson
SF #2: Koolhof-Mektic vs Krawietz-Puetz
PIGPIX
Bolelli-Vavassori
Koolhof-Mektic
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 