RIYADH: NEWS & NOTES
*It’s almost an entirely fresh field of eight at this year’s WTA Finals with only two pairs from 2023 in this year’s event. Dabrowski-Routliffe and Melichar-Martinez/Perez are the two repeat duos. Both pairs made it out of the group stages last year with Melichar-Martinez/Perez pushing past Dabrowski-Routliffe to get to the championship match. They would fall to Zvonareva-Siegemund 6-4, 6-4.
*Super tie breaks accounted for six of the 15 completed matches at last year’s WTA Finals. Four of those came in the group stages with two more in the semifinals. That is perfectly in line with 2021 and 2022 which both saw six STBs needed. The 2022 event was the last two have a super tie break finish in the championship match. That was the first since 2017.
*Underdog wins ruled the roost in 2023 with nine hits amongst the 15 matches played. The high mark came in the opening batch of group stage matches when Dabrowski-Routliffe topped the top seeds Gauff-Pegula as 3.12 (+2.12) dogs. Seven of the nine hits came in the group stages and then both semifinals went the way of the dog. The three largest prices would be in the group stages at 3.12 (+2.12), 2.96 (+1.96) and 2.54 (+1.54). The total was a stark contrast to 2022 when only four underdogs scored victories.
DRAW PREVIEW
GREEN GROUP
(1)Kichenok-Ostapenko (31-11)
(3)Hsieh-Mertens (27-10)
(6)Melichar-Martinez/Perez (35-20)
(8)Siniakova-Townsend (12-5)
Three of the four pairs in this group won a Grand Slam title in 2024. Only Melichar-Martinez/Perez don’t fill that bill. Hsieh-Mertens won the Australian Open to start the season, but struggled in two of the other three Slams with a second round exit at the French Open and an opening round loss at the US Open. They have not played a match together since losing in New York and carry a three match losing skid into this event. Siniakova-Townsend played the fewest matches of the pairs in this group, but they showed big in the two most important tournaments of the year when they won Wimbledon and then made it through to the semifinals at the US Open. Those tournaments accounted for nine of their 12 wins. Siniakova-Townsend have played just once since the US Open, losing their opener in Beijing in a super tie break.
Kichenok-Ostapenko were the last Grand Slam champions of 2024. The pair crushed the competition in New York with six straight sets wins to claim the US Open doubles titles. Most of their best work came on hard courts with a 20-7 record on the surface. They’ll be playing for the first time since winning the US Open when they step foot on court this weekend. Melichar-Martinez/Perez tallied a career-best 35 wins in 2024, their third season together. MM-Perez have the most recent reps of anyone in this group with seven matches (4-3) since the US Open. Their best run was their last in Ningbo where they made the final, their 6th of the season. That was made all the more incredible when it was revealed that Perez had fractured a finger early on the Asian swing.
This group kicks off play on Saturday with Kichenok-Ostapenko against Siniakova-Townsend and Hsieh-Mertens going up against Melichar-Martinez/Perez. Siniakova-Townsend won the only clash between the two, steamrolling Kichenok-Ostapenko on grass at Wimbledon. Kichenok-Ostapenko did fairly well on grass too, so I won’t overlook that blow out. Still, hard courts are where the #1 pair made their name this year with the US Open titles and a trip to the Australian Open final as well. The interesting part will be seeing how Kichenok-Ostapenko do after not having played since early September. Siniakova-Townsend have played just one match since the US Open and that was a loss in Beijing in late September. Who finds their rhythm first?
As for Hsieh-Mertens and MM-Perez, Hsieh-Mertens won the only meeting in 2024 in Indian Wells, but that’s a lifetime ago. Hsieh-Mertens are just 2-3 on hard courts since that won Indian Wells and they haven’t paired since an opening round loss at the US Open. Advantage should go to Melichar-Martinez/Perez who have continued to battle through the Asian swing to lock up their spot in this tournament. I think they’ll have to jump on Hsieh-Mertens early to take advantage of some potential rust because they could get rolling once
they find their chemistry together.
When you look at the group as a whole, the head-to-head would indicate Hsieh-Mertens have a decent shot at finished top two to advance to the semifinals. They’re 2-0 against Kichenok-Ostapenko, but a BIG BUT, BUT they have not yet played them on a hard surface since Kichenok-Ostapenko became Slam champs. That’s where I think Kichenok and Ostapenko have an advantage now – at least in confidence. Kichenok-Ostapenko have also lost to Melichar-Martinez/Perez in their lone meeting this year, but do own a win against them on a hard court back in 2022. For me, the absolute wild cards in this group are Siniakova-Townsend. They own wins against Kichenok-Ostapenko and Hsieh-Mertens from their Wimbledon run, but also have the least amount of reps as a duo this year. That their two best showings came at Grand Slams certainly tells you that they thrive in the spotlight, so they definitely are worthy of looking at for a top two finish in this group.
If I’m ranking the chances in this group, Hsieh-Mertens are going to be at the bottom. We know they are big time performers and do well on this surface as the first third of the season showed. That said, their two matches this Summer after Wimbledon don’t inspire a lot of confidence plus both have been working with different partners during the Asian swing. And both really struggled in those instances with Hsieh going 0-2 and Mertens 1-3. I like the grit of MM-Perez, grinding through the end of the season with injuries to get a spot here. They also showed last year that they can win with their backs against the wall as they took three straight after that to get to the final. I think they could sneak into a top two finish in this group. Both Kichenok-Ostapenko and Siniakova-Townsend are true X-factors and wild cards to me. I don’t like that Ostapenko has not played doubles at all since the US Open and Kichenok played just a couple of matches, so they’re going to have to show up and show out quickly or they’re behind the 8-ball early. It’s always hard to go against doubles royalty in Siniakova, so I won’t. She just won the titles in Guangzhou with Zhang, so she’s sharp still and I think can carry TT early until they find that rhythm again.
WHITE GROUP
(2)Dabrowski-Routliffe (34-14)
(4)Errani-Paolini (33-11)
(5)Dolehide-Krawczyk (25-15)
(7)Chan-Kudermetova (28-9)
This group may not carry a “heavyweights” feel to it like the Green Group, but the White Group houses three of the more consistent pairs on tour in 2024. Dabrowski-Routliffe are back for a second straight season at the WTA Finals. They were a model of consistency with nine semifinals or better out of 15 tournaments played. The only thing they didn’t do well was win finals. They scored just one title from the five finals they played. Dabrowski-Routliffe have been consistent participants on the Asian swing, playing in four tournaments with a 6-3 record. Errani-Paolini have been THE break out team of 2024 for me. The Italian combo have played 44 matches this season after only having paired for 17 in the careers previously. The highlights of course was taking home gold at the Paris Olympics and making the French Open final. Winning Rome would also rank right up there I’m sure and this pair has proven they have staying power with a title run in Beijing in early October. That including a win in the final against fellow group members Chan-Kudermetova.
Dolehide-Krawczyk have had a roller coaster ride of a season. They ran hot early with a runner up finish in Doha, but they did not see their second final of the season until winning their lone title in Toronto this Summer. They did show well at two out of three Grand Slams played with semifinal berths at both the French Open and Wimbledon, but they crashed out in round two at the US Open. The Americans have played just twice since that loss, dropping both openers in Beijing and Wuhan. Perhaps the biggest surprise in this field is Chan-Kudermetova who only formed in late April. They proved right away they were going to be competitors to watch as they won the titles in Stuttgart in just their second tournament together. They’ve made four finals altogether, but have not broken through with another finals win. Chan-Kudermetova have been great on hard courts at 11-3 and their consistency has continued through the Asian swing. In three tournaments post-US Open, the duo has gone 8-2 with a final in Beijing as the highlight with a semifinal in Seoul and quarterfinal in Wuhan in their last action.
It’s an interesting start on Day 2 for Dabrowski-Routliffe who have to face Chan-Kudermetova first. That pair eliminated Dabrowksi-Routliffe from the US Open in the quarterfinals in their lone meeting. Perhaps that’s a good recipe for revenge, but it also means Chan and Kudermetova should not be underestimated. It’s probably bigger for Chan-Kudermetova to avoid defeat as they’ve lost both matches this year against Errani-Paolini and Dolehide-Krawczyk. Dabrowski-Routliffe were perfect in their group matches at the WTA Finals in 2023. This year they split two matches with Dolehide-Krawczyk with the Americans winnning on a hard surface in Toronto after losing at Wimbledon. Their clash with the Italians, Errani-Paolini, will be their first career meeting. It’s imperative to for the Italians to win against Dolehide-Krawczyk who they blew out on clay and who come into this event struggling for wins of late. A win there and I think they can manage at least a split with the other two members of the group which may be good enough to go through.
Ranking this group, I think Dolehide-Krawczyk are the outsiders for me. They’ve been slumping late in the year with losses in four of their last six after winning the titles in Toronto. A win early over Errani-Paolini could ignite them, but I think that’s an uphill battle. I think Chan-Kudermetova are sleepers in this group. They’ve seen everyone here and although they’re just 1-2 against the other duos here, they have been competitive for the most part and have continued to play well down the stretch. In theory I suppose that Dabrowski-Routliffe and Errani-Paolini should be fighting for the top spot. I’m giving the Italians the edge and then I really think Chan-Kudermetova might sneak into the other spot.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
SF #1: Siniakova-Townsend vs Chan-Kudermetova
SF #2: Errani-Paolini vs Melichar-Martinez/Perez
PIGPIX
Errani-Paolini
Siniakova-Townsend
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 