VIENNA: NEWS & NOTES
*Ram-Salisbury won the 2023 Erste Bank Open as the two seeds. They defeated Lammons-Withrow 6-4, 5-7, 12-10 in the final. Ram-Salisbury were slight favorites at 1.84 (-119) in the championship match. Their victory made it four of the past five years that a seed has taken the titles at this event. The last unseeded pair to win were Austrians Erler-Miedler in 2022. The last time prior to that was when the Skupski brothers took the titles in 2018.
*The super tie break finish was the first since 2019, when Ram-Salisbury also won the titles. Super tie breaks were plentiful in 2023 with eight of the 15 matches in Vienna requiring the extra finish. Half of those STBs came in round one with the other four coming late with both semifinals and the final requiring bonus tennis to settle the match.
*Underdog wins were slim pickings last year at this stop with only three scoring wins. Two of the three came in round one with the highest at 3.33 (+233) when defending champs Erler-Miedler lost. The other came as top seeds Koolhof-Skupski dropped their opener to Doumbia-Reboul. Doumbia-Reboul were 2.87 (+187) dogs. The other dog score came in the quarterfinals at 2.06 (+106). That was a stark contrast to 2022 when eleven underdogs won matches. 2021 saw five dog scores and 2020 had just four.
*Seeds split their openers in 2023 with two losing and two winning. In 2022, it was a clean reverse sweep with all four seeds dropping their first match. Multiple seeds have gone one and done in three of the last four runs in Vienna. As a result, that same span has seen multiple unseeded pairs in the semifinals. Eleven of the last 13 finals in Vienna have featured at least one unseeded duo in the final.
*The race for the Tour Finals isn’t quite over, but there are really only two teams fighting it out for the final spot. Koolhof-Mektic sit in 7th as they play Basel this week, while last year’s Vienna runners-up, Lammons-Withrow currently in 9th, are back in Austria. They trail Koolhof-Mektic by 808 points. Heliovaara-Patten have the #8 spot and an automatic bid already thanks to their Wimbledon win. Lammons-Withrow can get to just over 4,100 points this week if they win the titles. They would need an early exit for Koolhof-Mektic in Basel and then something similar at the Paris Masters to pull off a miraculous rise to steal that final spot.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Bopanna-Ebden
While the chemistry edge no doubt would seem to favor Bopanna-Ebden, where are their heads at going into this stretch run? It certainly sounds like we may be seeing this pair splitting at the end of the season, but they’re finishing off 2024 with the rest of the indoor swing and the Tour Finals. They have not played together since the US Open and have gone out in their opener in two of the last three tournaments they played this Summer. They square off with Haase-Zverev who took a wild card entry to get in this week. They have never paired, but both are certainly skilled at doubles and have shown an ability to win with different partners. I’ll be interested to see if Bopanna-Ebden can find their games better after the layoff.
(3)Heliovaara-Patten
They do come in hot after winning the titles indoors in Stockholm, but the field here is much tougher. That’s evident right away as they start against Doumbia-Reboul who beat them on clay in Bucharest early this season. Doumbia-Reboul have been solid indoors over the last three seasons at 34-17, including a title run in Montpellier this year and a semifinal showing last year in Vienna. They’ll be a tough out in round one against the three seeds.
(4)Lammons-Withrow
A rough opener for the Americans as they draw Gille-Vliegen. Yes, they’re 7-0 against the Belgians, but the matches are getting tighter each time. Both meetings in 2024 have gone to a super tie break with Lammons-Withrow taking it 10-3 in Rotterdam and more recently, 10-5, in Shanghai. Perhaps the plus here is that Gille-Vliegen have lost their opener two out of the three times they’ve played Vienna, including a 6-4, 6-4 loss to the Americans last year. I still expect this to be tight and sooner or later, Gille-Vliegen seem like they’ll finally break through.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter features top seeds Arevalo-Pavic who have played just one match since the US Open. That was an opening loss to Gille-Vliegen in Shanghai. They SHOULD have a better chance to get in multiple matches this week with Darderi-Navone playing just their second doubles match together. Both young players have struggled in doubles in 2024 with a combined 6-23 record. No excuses to the top seeds not to roll in round one. The match opposite of this should have more intrigue with Austrians Erler-Miedler starting against Machac-Zhang. Erler-Miedler have only made it past the opening round once in Vienna, but it was a great run as they won the titles here in 2022. They come in this year off a title run in Antwerp and sport a 7-2 record indoors in 2024. Machac-Zhang showed that they are still dangerous in Shanghai in their last match as they narrowly lost to Bolelli-Vavvassori 7-6, 6-7 10-7. The last time they played indoors, they won the titles early this year in Marseille. Regardless of the winner, Arevalo-Pavic should be on upset alert in the quarterfinals.
Quarter two starts with a banger between Heliovaara-Patten and Doumbia-Reboul. Heliovaara-Patten rolled in Stockholm last week, but didn’t face quite the quality they’re likely to see in each match in Vienna. Doumbia-Reboul made the semifinals here a year ago with all three matches going to super tie breaks. That’s been a common theme of late for the duo with six of their last nine matches going to a STB. They’re 5-1 in those matches. If Heliovaara-Patten can grab the opening win, it’s no lock they go further. Behar-Galloway could be waiting and that newly formed pair has gone 6-3 with all that work coming during the Asian swing. They face qualifiers Klein-Kovalik. I’d favor the survivor between Heliovaara-Patten and Doumbia-Reboul to move on, but Behar-Galloway certainly could be a sleeper in this section. I’ll still give Heliovaara-Patten a slight edge to grab that semifinal spot.
I think you can probably pencil in at least one of the two semifinal spots to go to an unseeded pair in this half. There’s too much talent outside of the seeds I think for that not to happen. Erler-Miedler will be a popular choice, but Doumbia-Reboul and Behar-Galloway are pairs who could make it too.
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter is absolutely loaded with Lammons-Withrow as the seeds. The match with Gille-Vliegen does lean towards the Americans since they have yet to lose in seven career meetings. Again though, the last two have gone to super tie breaks and that means the margins are getting slimmer and slimmer. An underrated BANGER ALERT for the other match in this quarter with Gonzalez-Molteni and Cash-Glasspool going at it for the second time in a month. It was Cash-Glasspool who edged it in Tokyo 5-7, 6-3, 10-5. The Argentine combo got red hot the next week in Shanghai as they made the final. The question is what can they do indoors? Last year, they were 0-6 indoors. However, in 2022 they won the only indoor tournament they played in Gijon. Cash-Glasspool have stumbled a bit after winning the Tokyo titles with losses in two of their last three, including an opening loss in Stockholm. Five of their first eight matches together have gone to super tie breaks (3-2). This quarter legit could go to any of these four pairs. Lammons-Withrow obviously “need it” more than anyone as they try to stay on the fringe of the race, but their matches teeter so close that it’s hard to feel confident of their chances. Gille-Vliegen could wind up moving through if they finally break through with that win over the Americans.
The final quarter is where we find Bopanna-Ebden. Since making the French Open semifinals, Bopanna-Ebden went 4-5 over their next five tournaments. With both playing with different partners the past month it’s easy to see how they may struggle for consistency together early on. Haase-Zverev are their opposition to begin. That’s the big plus with those two not having previously paired together. Bopanna-Ebden need a fast start to avoid letting the wild cards hang around. The other match in this quarter should be fun with Skupski-Venus battling Matos-Melo. Skupski-Venus beat them on grass during their break out to start the Summer, but they’re no where near the same form as they were then. They haven’t won since the US Open with three straight losses, including two openers. It’s good then perhaps that they’re facing Matos-Melo who have dropped five of six dating back to the US Open. The Brazilians have been competitive with four of those going to super tie breaks, but they’ve obviously had issues finishing matches for wins. Bopanna-Ebden were very good down the stretch indoors in 2023, but they clearly don’t have the same chemistry going right now. Pick your poison in this quarter, throw a dart at the board and see what sticks.
This whole quarter just screams HAVOC. I would be stunned to be honest if either seeded pair made the final. There are so many competitive matchups you could find throughout this half that an unseeded pair seems like a decent shot to sneak through. Who is the question. I look at the Gonzalez-Molteni/Cash-Glasspool as a big factor. Both teams have had some solid runs post-US Open, so getting a big win to start could boost their profile as contenders right away. Despite their poor record indoors this year, Gonzalez-Molteni in the revenge spot might be that team. Gille-Vliegen still stick in my mind as another duo who could catch fire, but they have to prove they can beat Lammons-Withrow.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
SF #1: (1)Arevalo-Pavic vs Doumbia-Reboul
SF #2: Gonzalez-Molteni vs Skupski-Venus
PIGPIX
Arevalo-Pavic
Gonzalez-Molteni
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 