SHANGHAI: NEWS & NOTES
*Granollers-Zeballos are back to defend the titles in Shanghai, where they’ll seek to become the first pair to repeat since this tournament began back in 2009. In 2023, they won as the 7th seeds at 1.98 (-102) in the final over fourth seeds Bopanna Ebden 5-7, 6-2, 10-7. The super tie break finish was the first since 2013 (remember this event was not held from 2020-2022).
*Super tie breaks were plentiful in Shanghai last year with 16 of the 30 completed matches needing one to be settled. Rounds one and two were the places to find the majority of these with eight in round one and five more in round two. One quarter, one semifinal and the final itself accounted for the others. Ten of the 16 involved a match with at least one seeded pair.
*Underdogs logged eleven wins in 2023. The two biggest scores were both at 3.40 (+240) with one in the second round and the other in the quarterfinals. Five of the dogs barked in round one with round two as the heavy spot with four of the eight matches that round going to the underdog.
*Seeds almost went unscathed in the opening round last year in Shanghai, but the lone loss was a big one with the top seeds Dodig-Krajicek falling to de Minaur-Purcell. The Aussies were 2.80 (+180) underdogs in that match. Seeds accounted for five of the eight quarterfinal spots, but just two of the semifinal spots. 2016 was the last time an unseeded duo made the final with Isner-Sock AND Kontinen-Peers both in the final unseeded. 2009 was the only other year with an unseeded finalist AND champion with Frenchies Julien Benneteau and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga teaming up for the titles.
*It is a HUGE tournament for the teams chasing the last few spots in the race for the Tour Finals. Koolhof-Mektic enter Shanghai in the 8th spot, but they’re only 33 points ahead of Lammons-Withrow in 9th. It’s a monster gap to 10th where Nys-Zielinski sit almost 800 points behind, yet a big run by them would give them a boost heading into the final weeks. None of those three teams have anything to lose with Koolhof-Mektic not playing as a pair in 2023 and both Lammons-Withrow and Nys-Zielinski losing in round one in 2023. As a Masters 1000 event, going deep in this one would be a large bonus for any of those pairs.
SINGLES MINGLE
With the bigger draw this tournament, there are a number of singles pairs scheduled to be in action. Here’s a look at the ones that stick out.
Machac-Zhang
They may never recapture the early season magic of 2024, but they’ve continued to be a danger more often than not. Their last tournament was Wimbledon where they beat Behar-Pavlasek in three sets before losing a tight one to Gonzalez-Molteni in round two. They have a difficult draw against Bolelli-Vavassori to open, but I think this is one of those pairs that is at its peak danger in round one, so look out.
Khachanov-Rublev
The Russians are usually one that I feature in this section more often than not and this is one of those spots where I think they warrant a look. They nearly knocked out Bopanna-Ebden here in round two in 2023 and while their small sample size this year (3-5) isn’t impressive, they’re getting a pair in round one in Skupski-Venus that have dropped their opener in two of their last three tournaments. Last week in Beijing, they lost to a singles pair in Italians Cobolli-Musetti.
Fils-Shelton
It’s a first time pairing, but a fun one for sure. On vibe alone, this is going to be a pair to watch. Now, they certainly will be ones that I would expect could withdraw if they advance due to how the singles draw shakes out. Still, let’s see how they fare. Neither has had much success on the year in limited doubles play with Fils at 3-6 and Shelton with a lot more reps at 13-12. Most times, Shelton-involved pairs have been competitive. Fils too has shown a good competitive streak at least, especially on hard courts with three of five matches on the surface requiring super tie breaks. They get Koolhof-Mektic in round one.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Arevalo-Pavic
A strong field of teams means a tough matchup for the French Open champions right away. They’ll face Gille-Vliegen for the third time this year. They’ve won the previous two, but both were tight: 7-6, 6-4 n Hong Kong back in January and 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 at the US Open. This will be the seeds first match since losing in the US Open semifinals almost a month ago. Gille-Vliegen got reps and wins in Davis Cup play and also played in Tokyo last week, losing in a super tie break early. Having recent match play could give them another chance to grab a set if not more this time around. One thing seems certain if the past clashes are any indication, this match will twist on a few key points.
(3)Ebden-Salisbury
This is a harsh spot for the three seeds in their first match together. They get Tokyo champs Cash-Glasspool to start. Cash-Glasspool are now 4-1 together in this Asian swing and they LOVE, love, LOVE to play super tie breaks. All but one match has gone that way for them and they’ve won three out of four. Odds makers had Cash-Glasspool opening as slight underdogs, but that will probably change to pretty much a pick em line if not swinging into their favor.
(7)Skupski-Venus
They have been unable to sustain their magical form on grass with the transition to hard courts where they are now 6-5. That includes two opening match losses in their last three tournaments. The 7th seeds get Khachanov-Rublev who have plenty of experience together and should be dangerous on the quick courts in Shanghai. Three of the last four openers for Skupski-Venus have required a super tie break finish and that always leaves a team prone to a potential upset.
(8)Krajicek-Ram
We haven’t heard for sure if this pair are in line to be a regular combo in 2025, but it sure seems like they are potentially prepping for that possibility. It’s a second straight difficult draw to start after the Americans lost in a super tie break to Koolhof-Mektic in Beijing last week. Matos-Melo are the foes with the Brazilians losing to Murray-Peers in the same fashion in their opener in Beijing. Matos-Melo may fail to score the upset, but don’t be surprised if they at least push this to a super tie break. Three of their last four matches on hard courts have required either a STB or third set. They lost all three.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter features the defending champs (1)Granollers-Zeballos and (6)Heliovaara-Patten. Starting in the half with Granollers-Zeballos, they draw Bhambri-Olivetti in round one. I would say that could potentially be tough, but they crushed that duo at the US Open 6-2, 6-2. If the opposition has a superb serving day, maybe it’s closer this time. One thing Granollers-Zeballos have proven over and over is that long layoffs like their time from the US Open until Shanghai do not really affect them that much. Should they advance, it seems likely they could get Murray-Peers. Murray-Peers square off with Mannarino-Humbert. The French pair are 0-3 together, with their last match coming in Shanghai a year ago. They were blown out 6-2, 6-2 by Erler-Miedler. Murray-Peers had a great week in Beijing, coming through qualifying all the way to the semifinals.
In the Heliovaara-Patten half, the six seeds could have some danger early with Pavlasek-Rojer. If they get by that, then it looks like a quarterfinal at-minimum. The other match in their quadrant as Darderi-Tabilo pairing for the first time against the Tsitsipas brothers. The Tsitsi-bros had the one bright, surprising quarterfinal run at the French Open, but have otherwise struggled to win. The Greeks are 0-3 in hard courts this season. Chemistry-wise, I think you still have to like their chances in that one. Heliovaara-Patten should have the opportunity to get another good result with this draw, I just think it’s a matter of getting out of round one unscathed. It’s still hard to go against the top seeds in this quarter with Murray-Peers as possible dark horse types, but they have yet to put it together against a top tier team since they reformed late in the year. I would not be surprised to see seed versus seed in the quarterfinals.
The second quarter has Beijing champs (4)Bolelli-Vavassori and (7)Skupski-Venus as the seeds. The Italians’ half isn’t totally simple, but does look workable, especially when you look back at their form this past week. Machac-Zhang will be waiting in round one, but will their magic be there? I don’t have this one on upset watch, but Machac-Zhang do possess some danger still in round one. Hell, Machac made it to a semifinal last week in Tokyo with Jack Draper, so maybe I should have that one on upset watch? Doumbia-Reboul seem the likely foe for the survivor in round two as the veterans face off with Wang-Zhou. The Chinese wild cards do have experience together, but it’s mostly been at the lower levels. Their match in Beijing last week against Bolelli-Vavassori was just their second at the ATP level, a 7-5, 6-1 loss. Doumbia-Reboul made the semifinals in Shanghai last week and have been solid in this swing with title wins in Chengdu. Five of their six matches in their last two stops have gone to super tie breaks.
In the other half, Skupski-Venus are up against it right away for me against Khachanov-Rublev. The Russians don’t have much to say this year in doubles at 3-5, but they’ve played this stop the last two times and as I said earlier, nearly beat Bopanna-Ebden last year. Skupski-Venus have still had more positives than negatives on hard courts this year, but they definitely look more vulnerable at this point with those two opening match losses of late. The other match in this quad definitely qualifies as a BANGER ALERT! It’s Nys-Zielinski against Gonzalez-Molteni. Gonzalez-Molteni leads the head-to-head 3-1, including a win in Shanghai last year in round one. Interestingly, that’s the only one of the matches that didn’t go the distance. Nys-Zielinski did win the last time the two battled in Cincinnati this Summer, so maybe the tide is turning. Gonzalez-Molteni have struggled more on hard courts this year at 6-8 with four of their last five tournaments on the surface seeing them go out in their opener. Last year, they went 16-7 on the surface which included a quarterfinal showing in Shanghai. Nys-Zielinski haven’t lost an opener since Wimbledon and have just two opening losses on hard courts in eleven tournaments. I do think the pair that survives that opener has a good chance to push into a quarterfinal.
Bolelli-Vavassori are the class of the quarter, but it’s not going to be easy to go deep again this tournament. Machac-Zhang COULD be tough. Doumbia-Reboul COULD be tough. And Nys-Zielinski in my opinion would be the tougher of the other options in the other section of the quarter. Bolelli-Vavassori dismantled Gonzalez-Molteni on clay where you’d think the Argentines would have had a better shot. The question is do we get another Granollers-Zeballos and Bolelli-Vavassori battle out of this half of the draw? They’ve gone at it four times in 2024. The Italians owned the two matches on clay, but hard courts have gone to the defending champs. It’s a big fat DUH, but (1)Granollers-Zeballos certainly look the team to beat. Keep an eye on Nys-Zielinski who are 0-3 against the world number ones this year, but have taken them DEEP into super tie breaks twice in those losses. They might be due if they get another shot.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three looks wide open. Your highest seeds, (3)Ebden-Salisbury, have never paired. Sure, they could have great chemistry and win a bunch, but having to start against a hot duo in Cash-Glasspool is not ideal. On top of that, you have Behar-Galloway in their half. That pair has proven tough right away as well with the runner up finish to Cash-Glasspool in Tokyo and a semifinal run in Hangzhou. The quarterfinal berth in this section is very much up for grabs. It may actually be a great spot for Behar-Galloway who lost 12-10 to Cash-Glasspool last week and it’d be an ideal revenge play. Ebden-Salisbury to me are the wild cards since we have no idea what they’re going to look like together.
The other half has (8)Krajicek-Ram who will also be up against it to start with Matos-Melo as the opposition. The only draw back to picking Matos-Melo would be that the Brazilians have had a tough time finishing off competitive matches since winning the titles in Washington, DC to start the Summer hard court swing. As such, Krajicek-Ram might be the wise pick to advance out of a tough first round clash. Gonzalez-ERV are part of the equation in the other match, up against the first time team of Bublik-Tiafoe. One thing I can guarantee is that Bublik-Tiafoe are going to have fun. Tiafoe nearly crafted an upset over Koolhof-Mektic in Shanghai in 2023 with Mackie McDonald, but he hasn’t won a regular tour event doubles match since last August. That includes 0-4 this year, while Bublik is 9-13. Gonzalez-ERV have struggled though since pairing back up in April with a 9-11 record. They have only lost their openers three times in eleven tournaments. There’s some unpredictability to Bublik-Tiafoe that could make this tricky, so I wouldn’t lock Gonzalez-ERV into a win. I do think it means whomever survives between Krajicek-Ram and Matos-Melo should be considered the favorites to get to a quarterfinal.
The final quarter is led by (2)Arevalo-Pavic who will be on BANGER ALERT in round one against Gille-Vliegen. As I laid out in the One & Done watch earlier, the Belgians have really played them tough in two defeats. The third time could be tight again. Round two will probably be another tight one with Lammons-Withrow more likely than Cerundolo-Etcheverry. Lammons-Withrow are chasing that last spot in the race for the Tour Finals and they need wins. They’ve dropped two of three so far on the Asian swing. You’d think this a nice spot to grab a win with Cerundolo-Etcheverry 0-7 on hard courts. Lammons-Withrow would definitely prefer a Gille-Vliegen upset as they’ve won six of six against the Belgians. The Americans have not fared well against the best of the best in doubles this season, so getting Arevalo-Pavic would not be ideal to making a run for some much needed points.
The other half of this fourth quarter has Bopanna-Dodig as the other seed. They paired up last week for the first time since since 2021 and lost 7-5, 7-6 to Cerundolo-Jarry. I don’t think Carreno Busta-Martinez will provide the same serve-oriented challenge, but it could still be a close match overall. Opposite of them is one that looks intriguing, if for nothing else than Fils-Shelton should be fun to watch. Now having fun and being good in tandem is something altogether different, so we have to wait and see if Fils and Shelton show any sort of ability to mesh. Koolhof-Mektic come off a nice week in Beijing that allowed them to slip ahead of Lammons-Withrow into the 8th spot in the race. With Bopanna-Dodig as a “weaker” seed, they have to view this opener as must win with a realistic shot to get to a quarterfinal. That likely at least would help them cancel out any points Lammons-Withrow might get and could potentially set up a colossal clash between those two in the quarterfinals if some things happen. I think most of what happens here may hinge on if Arevalo-Pavic survive that opener. That’s the one that might be the scariest for them. But if they survive, then they are the ones who should come through and most likely get all the way to the final.
It’s an interesting half with two of the seeds barely having any match experience, if any together. You’ve got Krajicek-Ram with more, but also still getting more used to playing with each other on what appears like it might be a weekly basis. Then there are Arevalo-Pavic, the clear cream of the crop with a 44-15. They however are stuck in a section that has some dangerous unseeded duos, so nothing is certain for them. That’s really a theme in this half altogether with Cash-Glasspool, Behar-Galloway and Koolhof-Mektic all capable, but probably needing to avoid Arevalo-Pavic in particular.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
QF #1: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs (6)Heliovaara-Patten
QF #2: (4)Bolelli-Vavassori vs Nys-Zielinski
QF #3: (8)Krajicek-Ram vs Behar-Galloway
QF #4: Koolhof-Mektic vs (2)Arevalo-Pavic
PIGPIX
Arevalo-Pavic
Granollers-Zeballos
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 