BEIJING: NEWS & NOTES
*The WTA also returned to Beijing last season for the first time since 2019, and it was a seeded massacre. None of the eight seeds made the semifinals and only one made it as far as the quarterfinals. Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo were the champions over Chan-Olmos 3-6, 6-0, 10-4. The odds makers had the final set as a pick em.
*An astounding seven of eight seeds lost their openers in 2023. Half came in round one and then three more in round two amongst the top four seeds who came in off first round byes. As you’d expect, that meant a plethora of underdog hits with all seven seeded scalps going the way of the dog. That included a pair of hits above 4.00 (+300) with four totaling at 3.00 (+200) or better. Overall, there were a dozen underdog winners.
*Of the 27 completed matches in 2023, nine ended in a super tie break. Five of those came in round one with only two coming in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final. Four of the STB finishes in rounds one and two involved a seed losing. Three straight finals in Beijing have ended in super tie breaks.
*This year’s 32 team field is strong with (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe leading the way. They are one of three teams to officially have locked up a WTA Finals spot. Wimbledon champs Siniakova-Townsend slot in as the two seeds. They’re currently 7th in the race, but are in the Finals lineup by verge of their Grand Slam win. Still, they could be keen to show they are something besides Slam specialists. The pair is 9-1 in Slam play, but only 3-3 in other tournaments this season. The three seeds could lock up their spot in the Finals with Dolehide-Krawczyk firmly in fourth in the race entering the week.
*The four seeds are Melichar-Martinez/Perez, one of a slew of teams battling for spots six through eight. They’ve got a decent cushion in 6th with an almost 700 point lead over the 8th spot. Two teams with a lot to gain are Chan-Kudermetova and Schuurs-Stefani. Chan-Kudermetova hold down the #8 spot right now with a slim 113 point lead over Schuurs-Stefani. Unseeded Americans Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Sofia Kenin are still in the mix in 10th place entering this tournament. That’s less than 200 points out of the final spot in the race.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(1)Dabrowski-Routliffe
The top seeds were opening match losers in Beijing last year and could be up against it again this year with Su-wei Hsieh and Xinyu Wang paired up against them. Hsieh-Wang went 12-4 last year in limited play with huge results winning the French Open and making the US Open semifinals. That’s where they lost to Dabrowski-Routliffe 6-1, 7-6 and then lost their opener in Beijing in their last tournament together in a super tie break to champions Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo. Dabrowksi-Routliffe have only lost three openers in 2024, but the familiarity could breed a more competitive match this time around.
(3)Dolehide-Krawczyk
A harsh draw for the Americans against Haddad Maia-Siegemund in round one. Their last action came at the US Open where they lost early in round two to an underrated team of Danilina-Khromacheva. Haddad Maia-Siegemund also last played at the US Open, which was their first tournament together since making the Indian Wells final in 2023. They made round three where they were beaten by eventual champs Kichenok-Ostapenko. Dolehide-Krawczyk certainly have more on their minds this week with a few wins potentially helping them grab a WTA Finals spot, but they’ll need to shake off any rust right away to do so.
(5)Errani-Paolini
The Italians have leveled off a bit after winning the gold in Paris. In two tournaments since the Olympics, they’re 2-2 on hard courts with losses to Noskova-Schnaider and Dart-Parry. They have been pretty good at avoiding early defeat with only four opening match losses in 13 tournaments. They get Bucsa-Niculescu who have shown good chemistry in limited action in 2024 with a title on clay in Strasbourg and an 11-3 record all-time. They could push the Italians to play great tennis to start or be out early.
(6)Mertens-Zhang
There’s no denying this one-off team for Beijing is talented and dangerous. They showed as much in just their third tournament together back in 2022 when they made the Wimbledon final. That however was their last action together and Mertens arrives on a four match losing skid in doubles. Zhang has had a great month of September in doubles with a Grand Slam final at the US Open (Mladenovic) and then a trip to the Seoul final last week (Kato). This week, she’s up against last week’s partner with Kato pairing with Nadiya Kichenok. Those two are 6-5 in play together since last Fall, including a quarterfinal run at this year’s French Open. This one could be interesting as both teams try to find their chemistry again after playing recently with different partners.
(8)Schuurs-Stefani
It’s a tough opener against Olmos-Panova. This will be the third meeting between the two pairs with the previous two on clay. Schuurs-Stefani won the last time in straights in Strasbourg after Olmos-Panova won in a super tie break in Rome earlier in the year. Olmos-Panova have the benefit of playing in Seoul last week, whereas the seeds will play for the first time since losing in the US Open quarterfinals about three weeks ago. I think that makes this tricky potentially although Schuurs-Stefani have the superior hard court resume in 2024.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter One
Dabrowski-Routliffe and Chan-Kudermetova are the seeds in this quarter. There are some tough looking outs in both their paths. In the half with the top seeded Dabrowski-Routliffe, they have an intriguing opener against Hsieh-Wang. Even though they scored the win in the lone meeting between these two, this will be a different feel where Hsieh-Wang will likely enjoy more support. The match opposite of this is just as fascinating with Muhammad-Pegula taking on Mikhalikova-Nicholls. Muhammad-Pegula have paired 27 times with a 16-11 record. This is their first match together since 2022 when they went 6-1, including a title to start that season at one of the Melbourne prep tournaments. Mikhalikova-Nicholls have lost three openers out of six hard court tournaments played in 2024. They’re definite underdogs here, but could their chemistry as more regular partners help negate that?
The bottom half sees Chan-Kudermetova gainst Eikeri-Wu to open. They’re 2-2 in play this year with three of their four matches requiring super tie break finishes. Those all came on hard courts in Dubai. Chan-Kudermetova have quietly won 23 of 30 matches this season with a 6-1 record on hard courts. Their semifinal run at the US Open including a monumental win over Dabrowski-Routliffe, even with a title run in Stuttgart, I think their biggest win of the campaign. I’d expect them to survive a competitive battle where they could face a red hot Danilina-Khromacheva in round two. That pairing starts against Badosa-Muchova in round one. It’s their first ever match together with both obviously better known for singles. Danilina-Khromacheva have racked up 26 wins this year in 30 matches with back-to-back titles in Guadalajara and Hua-Hin the last two weeks. They’re a dangerous duo who rank as sleepers in this quarter.
You can see plenty of unseeded danger in this first quarter, so I think it is likely that at least one of the seeds are stopped short of a quarterfinal. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if BOTH seeds were out by then. I think Hsieh-Wang and Danilina-Khromacheva are the ones to watch.
Quarter Two
The top half with Melichar-Martinez/Perez seems fairly conducive to the seeds being able to get through a few round. The fourth seeds made the quarterfinals in Beijing a year ago and should have an opportunity to get out of the gates with a win over the Wangs. MM-Perez are not immune to opening losses with seven this year, but they have not fallen in their opening match since late May. The winners go against another inexperience pair with Cociaretto-Samsonova pairing for the first time and Potapova-Putintseva making just their fifth start together. Outside of Putintseva’s shocking Cincinnati finals run with Leylah Fernandez, neither has had steady doubles results in 2024. It would be a surprise if MM-Perez did not get through this section into the quarters again
The bottom half kicks off with a banger between (8)Schuurs-Stefani and Olmos-Panova. Olmos-Panova haven’t had a ton of success on hard courts this year at 5-5, but might have the slight edge early with some match play last week. Schuurs-Stefani are 15-7 on hard courts this season, but have lost their opener three times in eight tournaments. Do we get the pair that won the Doha titles and made the US Open quarters? Or do we get the ones who struggled losing three of four openers after those Doha titles? The survivors will be considered favorites to advance with their potential opponents in round two both without much, if any match play together. Tang-Yuan have played once, while Dart-Krueger have never paired. Both Dart and Krueger have been pretty competent in doubles play this year with Dart going 20-13 with a trio of finals appearances. They’ll be the favorites.
Unlike quarter one, I think you can make a case for the seeds being pretty strong in this section. Melichar-Martinez/Perez have the better draw of the two, but if Schuurs-Stefani show the form that has seen them win consistently on this surface in 2024, then we could see seed versus seed in the quarters. MM-Perez have to be considered the front runners with Schuurs-Stefani not having many marquee wins against other teams in the race. Their last cam against Dolehide-Krawczyk in the Doha final. Olmos-Panova are the unseeded danger to watch for in this quarter.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter Three
Dolehide-Krawczyk will lead the quarter and face immediate danger in Haddad Maia-Siegemund to open. The question is how well Haddad Maia and Siegemund mesh versus a veteran and experienced duo? Watching Haddad Maia-Siegemund at the US Open, you can see the talent, but you can also see at times that they’re not quite in tune with one another. Dolehide-Krawczyk aren’t immune to early losses though, so I think it’s a toss up in that one especially considering the layoff for everyone. The names to watch in this quadrant could be Boulter-Kalinskaya. They teamed up for the first time at the US Open winning in round one before a tight 7-6, 7-6 loss to Schuurs-Stefani in round two. They’ll square off against first timers Babos-Sizikova. Babos has lost six of her last seven doubles matches and Sizikova has lost her last four. They’re both plenty talented (Sizikova has 2 titles this year), so you can’t discount them if they are able to find their rhythm together. Dolehide-Krawczyk are the obvious favorites here, but I don’t think they are a certainty to progress. All of the unseeded duos in this section have the talent to knock them off.
In the other half, it’s Errani-Paolini as the seeds. The Italians will face Bucsa-Niculescu to start and I don’t think that’s an easy one. Errani-Paolini have been forced to a deciding set or super tie break in seven of their last ten on hard courts, so there could be a fight in store for the seeds to advance. An intriguing pair in the other match in this section features Leylah Fernandez and Aldila Sutjiadi. Both have had some nice runs this year in doubles, but it’s another case of how well they can combine as a first time pairing. They face the Chinese duo of Guo-Jiang who split two matches here in Beijing in 2023. They’ve done their best work on hard courts in 2024 with nine of their 12 wins coming on this surface. That includes a pair of finals early in the season. Nine of their 13 matches on this surface have required a super tie break in 2024. If Errani-Paolini avoid early trouble, their case is stronger to make the quarterfinals in this section. While Guo-Jiang have shown well on hard courts, they have yet to step up and beat a team the quality of the Italians. I’d still keep them on the sleeper list though, especially if Errani-Paolini falter early.
There are two quality seeds here, but plenty of problematic pairs elsewhere that could keep them from making runs. The key for Dolehide-Krawczyk is escaping that opener to get things on track, although round two could be equally tough. I know Errani-Paolini destroyed them in Rome on clay this year, but that was home cooking and a surface that perfectly suits the Italian pair. Hard courts should aid Dolehide-Krawczyk’s quest to exact some revenge in that situation if it happens. Keep an eye on that Babos-Sizikova/Boulter-Kalinskaya winner in round one. I think they’re the ones who could prove a surprise in this quarter.
Quarter Four
The final quarter is full of just as much fun as the others. You’ve got Siniakova-Townsend leading the way. In their half, we get the return of Olympic silver medalists Andreeva-Schnaider. I’m excited to see if they can follow up on that showing this week. It’s a tough ask perhaps, but they’ve got the talent. They get Aoyama-Hozumi in round one. They’ve been so-so at 4-5 in limited action this year, but do at least have reps under their belts playing in Seoul last week. I think the raw power of Andreeva-Schnaider wins out. As for Siniakova-Townsend, they battle Kichenok-Kostyuk who have not teamed up since 2021. They made a final on this surface when they did, but it’s not a great spot for them. I’m hoping this section comes down to Siniakova-Townsend and Andreeva-Schnaider. The young Russians were responsible for taking down Siniakova-Krejcikova at the Olympics, so they certainly could be up for another challenge.
In the other half, the return of Mertens-Zhang is enticing. Their big success on grass last time they paired back in 2022 was fantastic. Can that translate two years later onto hard courts? Kato-Kichenok will test them early with the two veterans capable of moving on if there is any rust between the seeded duo. Mattek-Sands/Kenin are the ones who can take advantage of an early upset. The Americans are not seeded, but still in the thick of the race for the WTA Finals. Kenin-BMS are 17-8 this year, 12-4 on hard courts. After a good run in Toronto (SF), they have stumbled a bit though with a 2-2 mark including a one and done in Cincinnati. They face Ninomiya-Xu to begin as the Chinese pair team up for the first time since 2013. These two have been solid performers on the doubles circuit for years, it’s just a matter of being with the correct partner. Xu won the titles in Cleveland on hard courts with Bucsa earlier this Summer. Kenin-BMS have only lost openers twice, so it’s a challenge for the Chinese to push for the win.
There are plenty of questions that need answering in this quarter. Siniakova-Townsend certainly have proven they can win any time, anywhere. Still, there are hazards in this draw. Andreeva-Schnaider and Kenin-BMS are the ones that stand out amongst the unseeded possibilities. I have Mertens-Zhang as outliers here simply because Mertens has only played once without Hsieh this year and it was a fairly lopsided loss. I definitely think they can spring up and take this quarter, but I like Siniakova-Townsend better or the young Russians and their power play on this surface. This is a statement spot for Andreeva-Schnaider to show up and show out or shrink to being thought a little bit of as one-hit wonders from the Olympics.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
QF #1: (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe vs Danilina-Khromacheva
QF #2: (4)Melichar-Martinez/Perez vs (8)Schuurs-Stefani
QF #3: Guo-Jiang vs Boulter-Kalinskaya
QF #4: Kenin-BMS vs (2)Siniakova-Townsend
PIG PIX
Siniakova-Townsend
Danilina-Khromacheva
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 