GUADALAJARA: NEWS & NOTES
*It’s back to the regular grind as the WTA stops in Mexico this week. This is the “second” tournament in Guadalajara and will be played for just the third time. This year’s field is nothing like last season’s where Hunter-Mertens won the titles over Dabrowski-Routliffe. Hunter-Mertens were stout 1.38 (-263) favorites in the final that they won in a super tie break. Hunter was also part of the pair that won the inaugural version of this tournament in 2022 with Stefani. They were 2.42 (+142) underdogs when they defeated Danilina-Haddad Maia.
*The 2024 field is half the size of the previous versions of this stop. There are only 16 pairs in the field this time around. Your top seeds, Eikeri-Neel, are ranked 23rd in the live rankings. The second seeds, Babos-Kichenok, are 40th. It’s the third seeds, Danilina-Khromacheva, who are actually the highest ranked team entering this week. They are 21st in the live rankings, which is 1800 points out of the 8th spot.
*I don’t think there is much point to dissecting what happened in the first two versions of the tournament as far as matches with super tie breaks and underdog wins. This is not the same tournament with the smaller field and field void of the top tier teams. I’ll focus instead with a look at some of the lesser known duos playing this week that could be interesting to watch.
WHO ARE YOU
Bektas-Krunic
Krunic many will know as she regularly plays both singles and doubles, but Emina Bektas is a name that I myself did not know. The American has only played six matches in doubles this year, but those are all with Krunic. And last year, she was 20-2 in doubles play. That was mainly at the ITF level, but she did win four titles and added one with Krunic on grass this year. They also played the first Guadalajara tournament last week, but withdrew ahead of a semifinal. They could be tough and get a crack at the top seeds in round one.
Piter-Stollar
Some may know these two as they do play quite a bit on tour. They’ve been incredible results-wise when they’ve paired up in the last season-plus with a 17-1 record. That includes two wins in Guadalajara last week that got them the titles. They are 13-1 together in 2024 with titles in four of the five tournaments they’ve played.
Moratelli-Santamaria
Another team that has played together in 2024 to the tune of a 9-6 record. They also have the advantage of playing here in Guadalajara last week, where they lost in the final. Six of their last nine matches have required super tie break finishes, so they’ve been competitive for the most part. They are 5-1 in those STBs. Oh by the way, they play Piter-Stollar in round one, a rematch of last week’s Guadalajara final.
Rogers-Smith
The two Americans have are 7-4 together in 2024 and 12-8 when paired up over the last two seasons. They made finals in their last two ITF tournaments played, but both were on clay. While the Americans looked overmatched in a round one defeat at the US Open, they did make a hard court final last year at the ITF level in Tyler. Four of their five hard court matches last year required super tie breaks. This smaller field might yield more chances for them to score some wins.
Murray-Silva
The two Brits might not be as under-the-radar as others, especially Murray who is one of the more experienced players at age 36. They’re only 5-6 in 2024, but they have been tested at the WTA level more than others and have looked competitive. They did lose their opener in Guadalajara-1 last week, but had made the semifinals in Cleveland in August.
Aney-Papadakis
This has been a regular pairing in 2024 with a 19-10 record, so that experience gives them some hope. Their record is 13-7 on clay and 6-3 on hard courts. A lot of their work has also come at the ITF level, so this will be a step up to some degree. It doesn’t help that they take on Babos-Kichenok first, but those two haven’t really been burning it up lately.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(1)Eikeri-Neel
They have a tough draw with Bektas-Krunic up first. Eikeri-Neel are a talented pair that made the semifinals here a year ago and also won titles in Tokyo later in the season on hard courts. This year, it’s been a struggle at 8-8. They have lost their openers four times in nine tournaments, including their last at the US Open.
(4)Kalashnikova-Rakhimova
The four seeds have only played together once and it was a lop-sided 6-2, 6-3 loss to Eikeri-Neel in Washington. They face Osorio-Shibahara, who are teaming up for the first time. That makes this more or less a battle of first timers. Shibahara plays plenty of doubles and is one of those nomads who switches partners most of the time. She’s had some varying degrees of success and failure with that and will need to carry the load likely with Osorio not as experienced. Still, all things being equal, this seems like a toss-up.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The opening quarter looks likely to be won by the survivor between top seeds Eikeri-Neel and Bektas-Krunic. The match opposite of theirs in the quarter features a wildcard pair that have never taken the court together and another in Cavalle-Reimers/Strakhova, who have only paired up once. That was almost a decade ago in 2015. The wildcards, Chong-Sanchez, do have a lot of time on the doubles courts at the ITF levels with others. Chong in particular has been a force at 30-10 on hard courts with multiple partners. Sanchez, a Mexican national, hasn’t been as good with a 17-20 overall doubles record. Still, there is some motivation there with the home player and Chong looks a genuine talent in doubles. They’re slight underdogs in their opener and might be worth a look. I still have to side with the experience edge however and side with either Eikeri-Neel or Bektas-Krunic to take the semifinal spot. The level Eikeri-Neel played with here last year and on hard courts is plenty good enough to win this whole tournament. However, we have not seen that same level in 2024, so it’s a real question.
In the other quarter, Danilina-Khromacheva probably carry the favorites tag into this one based on current form. They’ve been formidable at 18-4 overall and come in off a solid quarterfinal run at the US Open with a highlight win over Dolehide-Krawczyk. Piter-Stollar will be obvious choices for many opposite of them in this quarter after winning the titles here last week. Having to play the same team they just faced in the final in round one however could be the neutralizer. That’s tough to do, but they did look the better of the two pairs statistically by a good margin. If things hold with those two pairs getting to the quarters, it would be a repeat of their meeting on clay in the Budapest final that Piter-Stollar won in a super tie break. Keep your eyes on the unseeded pair in this section, they just might make another run in Guadalajara.
The two seeds here both have the skills to win this tournament. Eikeri-Neel are harder to like right now however with very middling results this year. Danilina-Khromacheva seem the better bet of the seeds to get to a final with a very nice 2024 since they started pairing regularly late this Spring. Piter-Stollar look the obvious spoilers amongst the unseeded pairs and might actually be the ones considered a slight favorite with their experience on these courts an a win over Danilina-Khromacheva.
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter looks wide, wide open. The seeds (4)Kalshnikova-Rakhimova don’t have the reps yet to take experience of their skills. Perhaps that changes if they can get an early win this week. Rakhimova won the singles titles at Guadalajara-1 last week, so her game certainly is comfortable here to that extent. The Americans Rogers-Smith are ones to keep focused on if an unseeded tandem steps up to make a run in this section. They’ve done it at the ITF level on different surfaces, it will just be a matter of what they can do against players with a bit more experience later in tournaments. They’re heavy favorites according to odds makers to win round one. Osorio-Shibahara are the X-factors to me in this quarter. Shibahara brings plenty of doubles experience, but will she and Osorio have any chemistry? If they do, they can challenge from match one to be a factor.
The final quarter features Babos-Kichenok as the seeds. They’ve been ice cold after their initial burst on the scene showing at Wimbledon. That’s where we saw them make the quarterfinals, but they’ve not lost five of their last six. Certainly some of those were tough draws, but others were not as much. Their individual experiences in doubles scream out that they should do damage in a draw like this, but until they get wins, you can’t say for certain that they should run rough shod in this spot. Even Aney-Papadakis could be a challenge in round one. I still look at them though as a team that is borderline dominant at the ITF level, but has not been able to step up a level often. Murray-Silva might seem the more likely choice in the other matchup to advance, but don’t sleep on Kozyreva-Zarazua. While they have not paired together, Zarazua is another player who will be playing at home. She played this stop last week and while she lost with Strakhova as her partner, it was a super tie break thriller to eventual runners-up Moratelli-Santamaria. Odds makers seem to agree by putting that first rounder as a pick ’em.
Babos-Kichenok would be the obvious choice here, but there would be more to like if they hadn’t lost so much of late. They might just need a win to get it going again, but they have to get that first before I’m totally comfortable with them being considered for a finals spot. Rogers-Smith are sticking out to me as potential dark horses and if Kalashnikova-Rakhimova get an early win, they could turn this into an all-seeded semifinal showdown with some momentum.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
TOP HALF SF: (1)Eikeri-Neel vs Piter-Stollar
BOTTOM HALF SF: Rogers-Smith vs (2)Babos-Kichenok
PIG PIX
Piter-Stollar
Babos-Kichenok
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 