WTA US Open Preview

US OPEN: NEWS & NOTES

*Dabrowski-Routliffe come to this year’s US Open seeking to become the first women’s duo to repeat since 2004 when Virginia Ruano Pascual and Paola Suarez won their third consecutive titles in New York. Dabrowski-Routliffe won the title match in 2023 as 2.25 (+125) underdogs over Zvonareva-Siegemund. It was the third dog win in the finale over the last five years.

*The champs in 2023 were seeded 16th. That marked the third year in a row that a seed claimed the titles after Zvonareva-Siegemund won the 2020 US Open as an unseeded pair. The win by Dabrowski-Routliffe was also the second in three years for a double digit seed. Double digit seeds have claimed four of the last six spots in the US Open women’s doubles final, so keep that in mind when we start looking at the seeds in the draw preview.

*Last year’s final completed in straight sets (7-6, 6-3), ending a two-year run of three set finishes. Overall in 2023, three set matches were plentiful with 26 of the 61 matches going the distance (43%). Half of those came in round one, not unexpected due to the volume of round one matches (32). Seven more came in round two and it was a clean sweep with all four quarterfinals needing three sets to settle. In 2022, there were 28 three set matches with half again coming in round one and nine more in round two. The pace has definitely picked up early on the three setters with 2021 having only seen eleven combined in rounds one and two.

*Underdogs accounted for 20 wins last year, so almost one-third of the completed matches. Dogs were especially busy at the business end with three quarterfinals, one semifinal and the final all going the way of the dog. The two biggest hits in that stretch came in the QFs at 3.99 (+299) and 3.56 (+256) with both coming in seed versus seed matchups. The largest dog score of the tournament was in round one at 5.38 (+438) when (7)Aoyoma-Shibahara were beaten. Another huge hit came in the same round at 4.71 (+371) when (2)Hunter-Mertens lost.

*Seeds have actually done reasonably well avoiding defeat in round one with only seven of the last 64 seeds going one and done. But when they have lost, they’ve been monster upsets with a top six seed losing in each of the last six US Opens. That includes three straight years where the second seeded team has lost. Eyes on you Hsieh-Mertens.

*Unseeded pairs have been a steady participant late in the women’s draw with three quarterfinalists last year including Brady-Stefani, who would advance to the semifinals. In fact, five of the last six years in New York have seen the same. The unseeded pairs have still had a difficult time climbing that last hill though with only two finalists in the last nine years. Zvonareva-Siegemund’s pandemic year win was the first by an unseeded duo since Zvonareva did the trick with Nathalie Dechy back in 2006.

*In addition to the repeat watch for Dabrowski-Routliffe, one of the other big stories is Su-wei Hsieh’s continued quest for the career Grand Slam. The US Open is the one that has eluded her with Hsieh surprisingly only making the semifinals twice in 14 tries! The US Open is also one of two where she has not won a mixed title with the French Open being the other. There’s also the matter of the #1 ranking with Erin Routliffe currently 1,080 points up on Katerina Siniakova. An early exit last year in round two for Krejcikova-Siniakova means that the Czech has a real shot to close that gap with Routliffe defending champions’ points.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(1)Dabrowski-Routliffe
At the beginning of the Summer, we may not have sweated this matchup for the defending champs, but things have changed. They face Fernandez-Putintseva who showed great chemistry in their first tournament together in Cincinnati this Summer. They made the final and lost in a super tie break to Muhammad-Routliffe in the final. Dabrowski-Routliffe haven’t played together since losing the Toronto final, but they did beat the Fernandez sisters in that run. Perhaps it won’t be a bother at all for them, but getting that first win to begin a repeat shot can be tricky against solid competition.

(2)Hsieh-Mertens
The career Grand Slam quest for Hsieh may not even get out of the gates this year. It’s a rough draw to face Mladenovic-Zhang in round one. That pair debuted in 2024 in Toronto and beat Mertens first-time team-up with Muhammad en route to a quarterfinal. Hsieh-Mertens played just once on hard courts this Summer, an opening loss to Dart-Perez in Cincinnati. All three of their tournament opening losses this season have come on hard courts in Brisbane, Dubai and Cincy. They’ve never lost an opener at a Grand Slam tournament in their two seasons together, but this figures to put that to the test as a lack of match play recently could hurt the two seeds.

(8)Schuurs-Stefani
A potentially tough draw for the seeds with Cleveland runners-up Aoyama-Hozumi in round one. On one hand the opponents here come in hot, but they had also lost their first two matches of their Summer reunion. Schuurs-Stefani got things together in Cincinnati for a quarterfinal run, their best result in nearly two months. They’re 12-6 on hard courts, but they’re still just Cincinnati-removed from a three tournament skid where they lost their opener each time. This one should be competitive.

(9)Kenin-BMS
It’s hard to know which version of Babos-Kichenok you’ll get; the ones who made the Wimbledon quarterfinals or the ones who are just 1-3 on hard courts since that run? Kenin-BMS were bounced early in Cincinatti, but looked solid in a semifinal showing in Toronto. That opening loss in Cincy was just their second one and done in nine tournaments. I think the Americans probably get it done, but you can’t discount Babos-Kichenok from figuring things out and providing a tough opener.

(11)Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo
The seeds have avoided opening match losses in each tournament they’ve played since losing their 1st match of 2024 at the Australian Open. They do get a tricky opponent in Americans Krueger-Stephens to start however with that duo going 9-6 together this season. Krueger-Stephens did lose their openers at both the French Open and Wimbleon, but hard courts on home soil should provide them a better opportunity to grab a match win. Their two best results came on hard courts early on with quarterfinals in Brisbane and Miami.

(13)Olmos-Panova
The seeds put together a good run in making the Monterrey final last week, but they’re also just that one tournament removed from five straight opening match losses. Maybe they turned a corner, but just around the bend they find a competent foe in Rus-Stojanovic. They haven’t paired much (6-2), but they have played finals in two of their three career tournaments together. That includes Hamburg on clay earlier this month, so they look like they can show up and potentially be a trouble maker for Olmos-Panova.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

Quarter #1
Two strong seeds lead the quarter with defending champions (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe and the gold medalists (6)Errani-Paolini. Starting with the top seeds, their opener is intriguing against Fernandez-Putintseva. This is a duo that just played their first tournament together and had instant success in making the Cincinnati final. Can they replicate that form and cause a huge upset? Perhaps Routliffe is the mitigating factor here as she’s seen what this pair can do first hand when she won those Cincy titles with Asia Muhammad. That could be a big plus. Eikeri-Neel are the other seeds in this half, but they haven’t paired since Washington when they were forced to withdraw due to a wrist injury to Neel. Prior to that, they weren’t exactly on fire. They did have some solid results on hard courts late last year however, including a tight super tie break loss to Dabrowksi-Routliffe in Guadalajara and they scored a big title win in Tokyo to end the season. We haven’t seen that consistency yet in 2024. The rest of the half is full of a lot of one-off pairs, but one to watch could be Martic-Rogers. It’s Shelby Rogers final tournament and these two have paired at Slams in the past back in 2021 and 2022. They were competitive in making the French Open quarters in 21 and Australian Open quarters in 22.

To the Errani-Paolini portion of the draw, where the Italians face a team in Kato-Wang that haven’t paired since 2020. When they did however, they were dangerous as they made the Monterrey final in their lone tournament together. The Italians split their prep matches in Cincinnati with both going to super tie breaks. They’re 6-4 on outdoor hard courts in 2024. Danger could lurk again in round two with Noskova-Schnaider as the team that beat the Italians in Cincinnati. Those two looked improved from their first match together in Brisbane early in the season and could be legitimate sleepers in this section. They do have a tough out in round one in Dart-Parry who made the Birmingham final on grass this Summer, losing to Dabrowski-Routliffe 11-9 in the STB. Chan-Kudermetova are the other seeds in this section and this will be their first match together on this surface. They’ve been dangerous on both clay and grass at 17-6 overall, so I’d expect them to do well here. The ten seeds have a nice section in the draw against less experienced foes, but keep an eye on the Corley sisters. The Americans have played more at the ITF level, but did show well in making the Cleveland semifinals last week. That included a win over Chan and Kato who were paired for the week.

This is an interesting quarter to me. The big names might be expected to be the ones fighting it out for the semifinal spot, but there are plenty of unseeded danger duos in this section. I’m more confident in Dabrowski-Routliffe who are in superb form with finals made in five of their last six tournaments. I think Errani-Paolini have a tougher go with round two looking harsh and Chan-Kudermetova also seeming a stern test if seeding holds. Noskova-Schnaider and Martic-Rogers are my favorite unseeded teams in this section.

Quarter #2
(4)Dolehide-Krawczyk head to New York hoping that Krawczyk is recovered from a leg injury that forced the duo out of Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Prior to that, they had found their best form of the season with a Wimbledon semifinal run coupled with the Toronto titles in their first foray onto hard courts this Summer. If healthy, they’re realistic contenders for a semifinal spot and beyond. Danilina-Khromacheva will be the team to watch in their path early. They were brilliant on clay with a 13-1 record. They’ve split four hard court matches this Summer, but have been competitive in their losses. On the other side, Shibahara-Sutjiadi are a first time team up as the 16 seeds. They’ll have a chance to get off to a good start against another first time pair, but round two may be what bites them. Mihalikova-Nicholls could be the team waiting there and they come in off a semifinal run in Cleveland and a quarterfinal earlier in Cincy, where they beat Kichenok-Ostapenko. They could have a real shot to playing for a quarterfinal berth.

The other half of this quarter is led by Kichenok-Ostapenko and Haddad Maia-Siegemund. Kichenok-Ostapenko struggling with losses in two of three in their hard court prep for New York. This was a great surface for them in Australia and New Zealand, where they won nine of ten and made the Australian Open final. Since then, they’re only 5-6 on the surface. The six seeds can’t complain about the draw with less experienced teams in their path early. If they falter, it would be a bit of a surprise even if they’re arriving without much form. For Haddad Maia-Siegemund, it’s about rekindling the chemistry that led them to the Indian Wells final last year in their only tournament together. They beat Kichenok-Ostapenko during that run and narrowly lost to Krejcikova-Siniakova in a super tie break in the final (10-7). The 12 seeds look the part of an “outside” title contender if they can harness that sort of play in New York these next two weeks. They too can’t complain about the draw with no teams that jump out as particularly scary, although super teens Montgomery-Ngounoue will be interesting to watch. The Americans debuted togther last year at the US Open and made the round of 16. I think this is a big step up for them however if they face Haddad Maia-Siegemund in round two.

I think as long as Haddad Maia-Siegemund still have the connection that brought them instant results last year, they look a big threat in this quarter. Certainly Dolehide-Krawczyk are the key contenders with the run of results they’re on, so I think as long as Krawczyk’s injury doesn’t limit her, that’s my pick for a quarterfinal. Mihalikova-Nicholls would be the best shot I think of the unseeded pairs, but this quarter doesn’t possess quite the same quality in that category that the first quarter did.

BOTTOM HALF

Quarter #3
Wimbledon champs (3)Siniakova-Townsend will draw all the attention, but there is plenty standing in the way of them making a deep run. They were a little erratic in their play in Cincinnati, hence the exit in their second match against Fernandez-Putintseva. I think it’s important for them to find better consistency early. That needs to start in round one where Bronzetti-Samsonova are no pushovers. They’ve paired just once in Madrid, but nearly knocked off Dolehide-Krawczyk in round two of that tournament. And then there is Kostyuk-Ruse looming as a potential second round opponents. Just about all they do is play the Grand Slam stops and they’re usually dangerous as evidenced with a quarterfinal run at the French Open this year and don’t forget this was a semifinal pair at the Australian Open just last year.

On the other side of that half, Olmos-Panova are the other seeds. Rus-Stojanovic have a shot in round one to pull off the upset if they bring their best. The team I’m intrigued by is Muhammad-Watson. They only paired once a long time ago in 2017, but both have grown leaps and bounds as doubles players. Muhammad just scored the Cincy titles with Routliffe and Watson has shown the ability to mesh with new partners on-the-fly with finals with two different partners this year and an Olympic quarterfinal with a third. They’ll be yet another unseeded duo who will dare Siniakova-Townsend to play at a high level or face the consequences.

On the other side of the quarter, you’ve got Schuurs-Stefani and Kenin-BMS as seeds. Both have what could be difficult starters, so I won’t be surprised if one or both of them are gone early. I’d favor Kenin-BMS just slightly to be the ones who have a better shot at survival with Babos-Kichenok a bit erratic. I think Schuurs-Stefani are going to have a tough time with Aoyama-Hozumi, who bring good form over from Cleveland. Wang-Zheng at one time were a tricky unseeded pair, but since the switch off of grass, they’ve been far less lethal with losses in four of their last five. Boulter-Kalinskaya might be a funky duo to watch in this section. As first timers, you don’t know what to expect, but both have shown flashes of good play in doubles this year. One thing you can probably count on the most in this half is seeing Kenin-BMS’ matches going the distance. Thirteen of their 22 matches have required a super tie break or third set with eight of their last ten on hard courts fitting that mold.

I love Siniakova-Townsend, but my piggy sense is tingling on them in this quarter. I don’t think they get through and of course that’s probably the worst thing I could pick, going against a team lead by Siniakova. There are those tough unseeded teams in their way early and we might see some good old fashioned home cooking for Kenin-BMS in this quarter. While the Americans have some possible road blocks, their path still looks conducive to success. Having a third set instead of a super tie break should help them with those small margins too, even if they’ve shown time and time again that they can squeak out those STB wins. Pick your poison on unseeded threats in this section, there are plenty. Kostyuk-Ruse have the Slam experience, but I’m looking at Muhammad-Watson as one that could gel into something special.

Quarter #4
The final quarter houses Hsieh-Mertens with Su-wei still in search of that final piece of the puzzle for her career Grand Slam in women’s doubles. The draw Gods were not kind to her in that regard with a difficult opener against Mladenovic-Zhang. Even if they survive that one, Linette-Stearns could be just as harsh in round two. They’ve been a tough out just about every time they pair up. The team that could take advantage of any early exit for the second seeds is Bucsa-Xu. The 14 seeds took a minute to get going after an inauspicious 6-0, 6-1 loss in their first pairing this Summer. After losing in straights to Siniakova-Townsend in Cincinnati, they pulled it together for four straight wins en route to the Cleveland titles last week. All things equal if they play Hsieh-Mertens, I’m doubtful they contend well, but if they get some help, they could sneak into the quarterfinal mix. Gadecki-Wu are a first time team-up to watch here. They’ve both had some good runs with other partners, especially Wu who teamed with Jiang early this Summer to make the final in Washington and a quarterfinal in Toronto.

The other half could be pretty open, but at least we get the reformation of Melichar-Martinez/Perez in New York. They’ve been apart since Wimbledon due to injury to Melichar-Martinez. Their results have been a bit sporadic this season, but hard courts were their break out point this Spring when they made the Dubai final, won San Diego and then followed up with a semifinal finish at Indian Wells. The five seeds made the semifinals here two years ago. The x-factor in their part of this section could be the first time pairing of Collins-Garcia. Both are very adept at doubles, so if there’s chemistry, there’s trouble waiting. In the bottom half, Krueger-Stephens could take out (11)Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo right away to open up that part of the draw. One team that could be sneaky here is Rakhimova-Sasnovich. They’ve paired a few times last year with one great results on this surface in Nanchang. Rakhimova-Sasnovich made the semifinals of that tournament with a narrow loss to Zvonareva-Siegemund. They also played Gauff-Pegula tough at Wimbledon, losing in three sets. They’re going to be better with every win they can get.

I do think this is a boom or bust type draw for Hsieh-Mertens. If they can escape that round one clash, then they could well run the table or at least run to the semis. I think there are plenty of question marks in this quarter, like will Melichar-Martinez and Perez find their chemistry right away after missing time? Are Collins-Garcia a smash and grab type of team? I’ve got eyes on the former partners Mladenovic-Garcia with different partners here; I think one of them makes the quarterfinals at least. It’s hard to get behind any of the seeds here. Melichar-Martinez/Perez have really struggled at Grand Slam tournaments over the last two years, so Hsieh-Mertens certainly would be the ones if any go deep that I’d back.

I’ll probably be well off base with some of these guesses, but LET’S GET NUTS.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe vs Noskova-Schnaider
Q2 QF: (4)Dolehide-Krawczy vs (12)Haddad Maia-Siegemund
Q3 QF: (9)Kenin-BMS vs Muhammad-Watson
Q4 QF: Collins-Garcia vs (14)Bucsa-Xu

PIG PIX

Haddad Maia-Siegemund
Kenin-BMS