WINSTON-SALEM: NEWS & NOTES
*Lammons-Withrow are your returning champions in Winston-Salem this week. The Americans were unseeded a year ago when the took the championship match over (2)Glasspool-Skupski 6-3, 6-4. The odds makers had the final set as a basic pick ’em with Lammons-Withrow at 1.89 (-112). The victory marked the second time in the last three years that an unseeded pair won the titles at this stop. Lammons-Withrow will seek to become just the 2nd repeat champions here with Rojer-Tecau the only ones to do it so far in 2017-2018.
*Unseeded pairs have made regular deep runs at Winston-Salem. Of the last 20 semifinalists, 13 have been unseeded. There has been at least one unseeded finalist in seven straight editions of the Winston-Salem Open.
*There were only three seeds in 2023 due to a late withdrawal. Two of the three seeded pairs made the semifinals, but the other, top seeds Ram-Salisbury, lost their opener in round one to Lammons-Withrow. That made it five straight runs in Winston-Salem where at least one seed has lost their opening match. In three of those five years, multiple seeds went down early.
*With those early upsets occurring, underdog wins may be best to find in round one. They were difficult to find in 2023 with only two dog scores out of 15 matches, but both did come in round one. Overall, there have been only eleven underdog hits over the last three years at the Winston-Salem Open. Eight of those came in round one action.
*Super tie breaks were also rare in 2023 with only three. That seems to be an outlier at this tournament with at least five super tie break finishes in each of the previous eight runs. There doesn’t appear to be a steady trend of where to find STBs. The final has gone down in straight sets the past two years and only one of the last six semifinals has featured a super tie break.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
Once again in a 16 team field, they have seeded eight teams for whatever purposes. For this section, I’m only referencing the top four seeds.
(2)Koolhof-Mektic
Listen, this duo has been solid on hard courts at 14-5 overall. They have not lost an opener since Dubai back in February. So why do you have them on here idiot? They have an experienced foe in round one in Escobar-Nedovyesov. They’re 46-26 over the last two seasons, so they know how to win albeit with many of those not against the best of the best. Still, they have shown enough on hard courts (7-6) with a semifinal run in Adelaide and finals appearance in Los Cabos, to think they could make life harsh in round one.
(3)Krajicek-Rojer
This is just the second match together for the seeds after losing their debut in a tough spot in Cincinnati last week to Bolelli-Vavassori. They get another regular pair in Frantzen-Jebens to start this week. Hard courts haven’t been the forte of the Germans with just a 2-3 mark on the surface this year, but they’ve been on a great run with quarterfinal or better finishes in their last seven tournaments. That includes the quarterfinal run at Wimbledon and a finals loss on clay in Kitzbuhel in their last tournament in late July. In spite of their lack of hard court play, they look like a very tough out.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter #1
Skupski-Venus should have a big edge to start in this quarter as the only regular pair. There’s certainly plenty of talent in the other pairings, but they’re all having to find their chemistry together on-the-fly. That includes the return of Jamie Murray and John Peers as a pair. Murray-Peers were a force on tour from 2013-2015 when they paired regularly with six titles. That said, this is their first match together since they played a tournament back in 2019. They’ll get Dodig-Pavlasek who are merging this week for a one-off pairing. It’s Dodig’s fourth different partner of this hard court swing. This past week, he found the right combination with Murray as the two made it to the semifinals in Cincinnati.
Pavlasek has also paired with Murray this Summer and most recently with Machac at the Olympics. Dodig’s deep run in Cincinnati might be a detriment to them developing any quick chemistry as the Croatian will be arriving late, leaving less time to practice and learn each other’s tendencies. You can also say the same for Murray, right? However, there could be a bit better chance of Murray and Peers clicking again despite the short turnaround due to their past experience together. All-in-all though, it’s hard not to like Venus-Skupski here … at least on paper. The one thing going against them is the relative lack of success for top seeds in Winston-Salem. 2019 was the last time that a top seed won the championship and the top seed hasn’t made it as far as the semifinals since 2021.
I think the one pair that could keep Skupski-Venus out of the last four is Murray-Peers. They have that history and while it’s been a long time since they paired, knowing each other’s games to an extent is a big help when you’re adjusting to a new partner for the week. I’m still on Skupski-Venus to get through.
Quarter #2
You’ve got two regular pairs in this quarter and a couple of pairs with little or no experience. Starting with the seed here, Krajicek-Rojer were at least competitive in their 7-6, 6-3 loss to Bolelli-Vavassori last week. I do think there is room for them to grow in confidence and certainly score some wins. Frantzen-Jebens won’t be the easiest of openers however, so an upset is still very much possible. It was a bit of a shock to me that of their 132 career matches together, only FIVE have been on hard courts. I don’t think it’s a big issue though as we saw with their play on grass this Summer, another surface they had rarely played on, these guys can ball. Expect a tight opener between these two and I don’t think it’s that big of an “upset” if the unseeded Germans win.
As for the other half of the quarter, you’ve got Glasspool teaming up with Doumbia for the first time. It appears the Glasspool-Rojer partnership that started the year off is no more with both players having paired with different partners now multiple times and they’re not on the US Open entry list together. They’re the underdogs in this one against Cash-Galloway. That pair has had a nice 2024 with a 31-19 record overall. They made the semifinals to kick off this swing in Atlanta, but were beaten soundly Washington in their last match by Korda-Michelsen in straights. Remember however that this pair did win the titles at Delray Beach on this surface in the Spring and they beat Arevalo-Pavic on a hard surface early in Auckland. They’re legit and have an opportunity to make a move this week.
This quarter looks like an absolute free-for-all to me. The team that seems least likely to advance out to the semifinals would be Glasspool-Doumbia, but who knows? Maybe they have instant chemistry together and roll through the quarter! I’d lean towards the survivor of the Krajicek-Rojer/Frantzen-Jebens match as the one I like the best. Given the history of unseeded teams at this event, Frantzen-Jebens could be that team.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter #3
The defending champs lead off this quarter with the four seeds Lammons-Withrow lined up to battle first timers Borges-Darderi. That’s an advantageous set up, but the Americans are carrying a two match losing skid to Winston-Salem. Both of those were first match losses. I think you can forgive the super tie break loss to an experienced duo like Melo-Zverev last week in a tough Cincinnati draw, but the loss to Etcheverry-Tabilo in Montreal was not great. Maybe they were a bit run down from back-to-back titles in Atlanta and Washington? They started the swing off strong with those, so perhaps they’ll end the US Open prep with another good showing. You do still have to like them to advance in this situation in spite of the last two matches.
On the other side, Matos-Melo pair up again for the first time since losing that Washington final to Lammons-Withrow. The Brazilians have found their groove together after stumbling out of the gates on clay (1-2). They won the titles on grass in Stuttgart and then finished runners-up in Washington with a decent round of 16 showing at Wimbledon in between. They get Erler-Haase who are pairing up for the first time. It should be an edge for Matos-Melo over the first time pairing, but both Erler and Haase are experienced so if they mesh well, then this might wind up being a tougher match than expected. I’ll still take Matos-Melo in that one.
So could this come down to a rematch of the Washington final between Lammons-Withrow and Matos-Melo? It’s certainly got a fairly good chance. I’d look to Matos-Melo to get a little revenge perhaps. Keep an eye on Lammons-Withrow and super tie breaks. They’ve played five in nine matches during this North American swing.
Quarter #4
For Koolhof-Mektic, it may be all about getting past their opener against Escobar-Nedovyesov. The rest of the quarter looks pretty open to them making a run if they survive their opener. Of course the two seeds have also only won back-to-back matches in one of their last five tournaments. Escobar-Nedovyesov are certainly capable, but also have rarely notched wins against upper echelon teams. On the other side of the quarter, you have veterans Behar-Molteni in a rare pairing. They have played three matches together with the last being in 2018. This will be their first time on hard courts together. They battle inexperienced players in local Wake Forest University product Luca Pow and Suresh Dhakshineswar. Pow had a great season on the collegiate level, so it will be interesting to see if those two can at least be competitive.
This draw looks tailor-made for Koolhof-Mektic to get a confidence boosting run, but they’ll need to find a good level of consistency still with the veterans in this section.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Skupski-Venus vs Murray-Peers
Q2 QF: Frantzen-Jebens vs Cash-Galloway
Q3 QF: Matos-Melo vs (4)Lammons-Withrow
Q4 QF: Behar-Molteni vs (2)Koolhof-Mektic
PIGPIX
Skupski-Venus
Matos-Melo
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 