CINCINNATI: NEWS & NOTES
*Taylor Townsend will go for the Cincinnati repeat albeit with a different partner in 2024. Last year, Townsend and Alycia Parks took the titles over Melichar-Martinez/Perez 6-7(1), 6-4, 10-6. The Americans were staunch favorites in the finale at 1.58 (-172) despite being an unseeded pair up against the #3 seeds. Their win was the second in the last three runs in Cincy that an unseeded pair claimed the titles. It was the first super tie break finish in the final since 2017.
*Super tie breaks hit around a third of the matches last year with nine needed out of the 26 completed matches. They were fairly evenly spread out throughout the tournament with no big trend to follow. That number was down from 12 in 2022 and 14 in 2021.
*As for unseeded pairs, the quarterfinals have seen at least two unseeded duos since the inception of the Western & Southern Open back in 2004. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the semifinals in six straight at this stop and one of them in the final each year since 2021.
*With those numbers on the unseeded pairs, you’d expect that means a few one and dones for seeds over the years. Two lost their openers in 2023, the same number that 2022 saw in Cincinnati. Overall, there have been multiple seeded losses in the seeded squad’s openers in each of the last four runs.
*Top four seeds haven’t had a strong showing the last three years with only four making it to the semifinals out of the 12 available slots. The last top four seed to win the titles were Chan-Hingis as the two seeds in 2017. The top seeds in Cincy have only made it as far as the semifinals ONCE (2015) in the last eight trips to the Queen City. Black-Huber were the last top seeded champions in 2009, so history is definitely against Siniakova-Townsend this week.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(3)Muhammad-Routliffe
I’m including these two because it’s their first time pairing and as we saw with Muhammad’s team up with Mertens last week, success is not certain no matter the skill level for first timers. Routliffe has had some success outside of her regular pairing with Dabrowski, but there’s also been some tough results with first time pairings. See her Olympics pairing with Sun and a Madrid match with Ashlyn Krueger, both losses. They’ll see either Krueger and her first timer partner Eikeri or Aoyama-Hozumi who lost their first match together since 2022 last week in Toronto. That may bode well for the three seeds, but you want to see them on the court before you can decide if they’re going to mesh together or not.
(7)Schuurs-Stefani
The seven seeds arrive on a four match losing skid with three of those being opening losses at tournaments. While they had some great results on this surface early in the season, they’ve now dropped their opener in three of their last four hard court tournaments. The plus for them is they get first time team Samsonova-Zhang. That said, both have been good partners in doubles play. Samsonova played with Wang in Toronto last week, narrowly losing to Kenin-BMS in a round two super tie break. Zhang paired with Mladenovic with two solid wins before a tough 12-10 loss in a super breaker to the Fernandez sisters in the quarter finals in Toronto. Given the seeds’ struggle, if Samsonova-Zhang have chemistry, it could be upset city.
(8)Kenin-BMS
The Americans have a propensity for playing super tie breaks on hard courts with seven of their last nine on the surface going the distance. Admittedly, they’re 6-1 in those matches, but the fine line is being walked. They draw a competent pair in Linette-Stearns to start. That pair has been solid in limited play on hard courts losing a tough one to Dabrowski-Routliffe in round two last week in Toronto in a super tie break.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter #1
Two really solid seeds in this section with (1)Siniakova-Townsend and (6)Dolehide-Krawczyk who come in hot off the win in Toronto that catapulted them into the #3 spot in the finals race. Wimbledon champs Siniakova-Townsend may take a minute to rediscover their chemistry since they haven’t played together in a month, but you’d expect them to find it. Their opener should be winnable. Wang-Zheng had some nice results early in the Summer/late Spring but they’re arriving with two pretty harsh losses at Wimbledon and the Olympics in round one. Those were in straights to Garcia-Mladenovic and the Kichenoks. Siniakova-Townsend look a level or three above those pairs right now. Bucsa-Xu were a disappointing loser in their first match together last week in Toronto, winning a single game in a straight sets loss. It’s hard to like either of those two teams to knock out the #1 seeds.
As for Dolehide-Krawczyk, travel and different balls/conditions may be their biggest opponents early on. They face Olmos-Panova who have played them close a couple times on clay, but fell short both times. In fact their last meeting at the French Open started what is now a five game losing stretch. Dolehide-Krawczyk are one of the most in-form pairs right now, so they’ll be expected to get through. The other round one match pits first time pair Fernandez-Putintseva against the seasoned Kato-Sutjiadi. Fernandez had a great week with her sister at their home tournament last week in Canada, but Putintseva has not been great in doubles play at 4-14 the last two seasons. Keep eyes on Kato-Sutjiadi who made the quarters last year in Cincinnati with big wins over Dabrowski-Routliffe and Siegemund-Zvonareva. All three of their matches went to super tie breaks. They’re just 10-10 on hard courts in 2024 and the results say they usually don’t hold up well against top tier pairs, but they may at least make it interesting.
There could be a bump or two keeping us from a superb quarterfinal that would pit Siniakova-Townsend against Dolehide-Krawczyk. Still, it looks more likely that we would get that blockbuster in the round of eight. Siniakova-Townsend beat the cream of the crop in their Wimbledon run, while Dolehide-Krawczyk had mostly fallen short against the top tier duos. That changed in Toronto as they broke through against Dabrowski-Routliffe who had beaten them twice prior to that clash. That should make that potential quarterfinal one to see IF we get it.
Quarter #2
The Paris gold medalists Errani-Paolini highlight the quarter as they hit hard courts for the first time since Miami. They made the semifinals in that one, but it is fair to wonder if they can be the force on hard courts that they’ve been on clay, where they’ve gone 15-3. Their opener will be one to watch then for me. Babos-Kichenok were a disappointing out in Toronto early last week, but they’re a pair that made the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Alexandrova-Sizikova haven’t done much in their limited time together with a 7-13 record. Errani-Paolini should be able to get through, but if Babos-Kichenok find a better level, they could be tricky.
The bottom half is led by Kenin-BMS as the seeds. I do think Linette-Stearns will be a tough test in round one. The American seeds have that propensity for playing super tie breaks and that always leaves the door open for upsets. Linette-Stearns have done well on hard courts when they’ve played on the surface with four wins in six matches. That includes a win over Dabrowski-Routliffe last year in Beijing and a narrow loss to them last week in Toronto. In the other round one match, Danilina-Khromacheva are a fascinating possibility. They were lights out on clay at 13-1 this Spring with three titles and four finals. Most of them came without any of the top teams in those fields, so it is definitely a question as to how they’ll fare against better pairs. Still, the chemistry is undeniable, so I’ll be interested to see how they transition to hard courts. I think this section is pretty open even though Kenin-BMS have been able to walk that super tie break tight rope on hard courts and make several deep runs.
Errani-Paolini have shown the ability to win on hard courts in the past, so it’s not like you dismiss them simply because we’re off of clay now. I do think it’s a bit more of a challenge though, so I think that opens up this quarter to some upset potential. It would not stun me to see an unseeded pair come through this section. One team that could be a real smash and grab type is Noskova-Schnaider. They played just once, but it was early in Australia. Since then, Schnaider has grown leaps and bounds in confidence and Noskova has gotten more experience and confidence as well, culminating in both players being in the medal round in Paris. If a seed goes through, Errani-Paolini would be my choice.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter #3
There are a lot of questions in this quarter with first time pair Muhammad-Routliffe as the lead seeds and a struggling pair in Schuurs-Stefani as the other seeds. It’s going to be a challenge for Muhammad and Routliffe with Routliffe coming off a loss in the Toronto final with her regular partner Dabrowski and now having to quickly transition to learning another player’s tendencies. That’s why I have them on the one and done possibilities even if the opponents they could face don’t exactly stand out. Eikeri-Krueger are the ones that interest me with both playing fairly well with different partners. Aoyoma-Hozumi could be expected to be better this week after getting reps in Toronto last week, so either way it’s a tough starter for Muhammad-Routliffe given the situation.
As for Schuurs-Stefani, they simply need a win. They’re on that four match losing skid coming in and having lost their openers in three straight tournaments. They definitely have the potential to win on this surface as we saw with the Australian Open quarterfinal run and Doha titles early in the season. If they can find that confidence again, this quarter is definitely one they can step up and grab. I think Samsonova-Zhang in round one is the turning point. A win there and they could go on a roll, but they have to snap that losing streak first. The other match in this quadrant has two first time pairs with Guo-Niculescu and Sun-Tomljanovic. Guo-Niculescu are the doubles specialists of the two, but Sun has had some success on the ITF level in doubles this year. Tomljanovic doesn’t play a ton of doubles, so I think they’re likely to be the rougher team in that match.
If there’s a week for Schuurs-Stefani to step back into finals contention, this could be it. They’re right on the periphery of the top eight at #11, just 300 points from the 8th spot. If not them, I think I’d look for an outside to grab the spot. Maybe I’m overlooking what Muhammad-Routliffe could be, but I think their situation is just very difficult. I think flip a coin amongst the unseeded pairs as none of them definitively stick out as one that could get hot in Cincinnati.
Quarter #4
The final quarter marks the return of Hsieh-Mertens. The WTA’s top team haven’t played since losing in the Wimbledon semifinals. They were a steady force on hard courts early this year at 13-4, but they did have some hiccups with opening losses in Brisbane, Doha and Dubai. They should appreciate the draw however with two first time teams battling to face them in round two. Ellen Perez and Harriet Dart could be the ones to watch there with Dart showing a good ability to transition between partners already this year with decent results. Perez has had to partner hop since Wimbledon due to an injury to Melichar-Martinez. The results haven’t been the best with losses in her last three, but three of her five matches played in that stretch have been competitive super tie breaks.
On the other side, Kichenok-Ostapenko look to get back on the winning track after losing their opener in Toronto to an in-form Jiang-Wu. They won the titles in Cincy back in 2022, but have failed to get past the round of 16 the other two times they’ve played this stop. They’ll need to be on alert early with American wild cards Davis-Montgomery. They played just once in the past, but it was a competitive super tie break loss in Guadalajara last Fall. I’d still expect the seeds to get through and they should be in good shape to go to the quarterfinals. Mihalikova-Nicholls and Andreeva-Pavlyuchenkova square off for the likelihood of facing Kichenok-Ostapenko. Mihalikova-Nicholls did take a set off Kichenok-Ostapenko during a Wimbledon loss. The big thing here is if the Russian pair Andreeva-Pavlyuchenkova will have any chemistry. Andreeva has shown flashes in doubles with the highlight being the silver medal run with Schnaider. Pavlyuchenkova doesn’t play much in doubles, but she’s usually been competitive. They look to be the X-factor in this section.
Do we get a third installment of Hsieh-Mertens versus Kichenok-Ostapenko this year? After a Hsieh-Mertens’ straight sets win in the Australian Open final, Kichenok-Ostapenko made it much closer in a quarterfinal loss in Madrid in a super tie break (10-7). Could the third time be the charm? The Russians in this section are the dark horse type I believe. If they find some chemistry early, they could be a pesky out.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Siniakova-Townsend vs (6)Dolehide-Krawczyk
Q2 QF: (4)Errani-Paolini vs Danilina-Khromacheva
Q3 QF: (7)Schuurs-Stefani vs Eikeri-Krueger
Q4 QF: Andreeva-Pavlyuchenkova vs (2)Hsieh-Mertens
PIG PIX
Siniakova-Townsend
Kichenok-Ostapenko
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 